Application of the World Café method to discuss the efficiency of African swine fever control strategies in European wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations.

In the current epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, the maintenance and spread of the disease among wild boar populations remains the most important epidemiological challenge. Affected and at-risk countries have addressed this situation using a diversity of wild boar management methods with varying levels of success. The methods applied range from conventional animal disease intervention measures (zoning, stakeholder awareness campaigns, increased surveillance and biosecurity measures) to measures aimed at reducing wild boar population movements (fencing and baiting/feeding) or population numbers (intensive hunting). To assess the perceived efficiency and acceptance of such measures in the context of a focal introduction of ASF, the authors organised a participatory workshop inviting experts from the fields of wildlife management, wild boar ecology, sociology, epidemiology and animal disease management to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various control approaches. The discussions between professionals from different countries took place using the World Café method. This paper documents the World Café method as a tool for increasing the level of participation in multi-stakeholder group discussions, and describes the outputs of the workshop pertaining to the control measures. In summary, the World Café method was perceived as an efficient tool for quickly grasping comprehensive perspectives from the professionals involved in managing ASF and wild boar populations, while promoting engagement in multi-disciplinary discussions. The exercise achieved a good overview of the perceived efficiency and applicability of the different control methods and generated useful recommendations for ASF control in wild boar populations in Europe.

Risk factors for African swine fever incursion in Romanian domestic farms during 2019.

African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia in 2007 and the EU in 2014. In the EU, the virus primarily spread in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the period from 2014-2018. However, from the summer 2018, numerous domestic pig farms in Romania were affected by ASF. In contrast to the existing knowledge on ASF transmission routes, the understanding of risk factors and the importance of different transmission routes is still limited. In the period from May to September 2019, 655 Romanian pig farms were included in a matched case-control study investigating possible risk factors for ASF incursion in commercial and backyard pig farms. The results showed that close proximity to outbreaks in domestic farms was a risk factor in commercial as well as backyard farms. Furthermore, in backyard farms, herd size, wild boar abundance around the farm, number of domestic outbreaks within 2 km around farms, short distance to wild boar cases and visits of professionals working on farms were statistically significant risk factors. Additionally, growing crops around the farm, which could potentially attract wild boar, and feeding forage from ASF affected areas to the pigs were risk factors for ASF incursion in backyard farms.

Eradicating BVD, reviewing Irish programme data and model predictions to support prospective decision making.

Bovine Viral Diarrhoea is an infectious production disease of major importance in many cattle sectors of the world. The infection is predominantly transmitted by animal contact. Postnatal infections are transient, leading to immunologically protected cattle. However, for a certain window of pregnancy, in utero infection of the foetus results in persistently infected (PI) calves being the major risk of BVD spread, but also an efficient target for controlling the infection. There are two acknowledged strategies to identify PI animals for removal: tissue tag testing (direct; also known as the Swiss model) and serological screening (indirect by interpreting the serological status of the herd; the Scandinavian model). Both strategies are effective in reducing PI prevalence and herd incidence. During the first four years of the Irish national BVD eradication programme (2013-16), it has been mandatory for all newborn calves to be tested using tissue tag testing. During this period, PI incidence has substantially declined. In recent times, there has been interest among stakeholders in a change to an indirect testing strategy, with potential benefit to the overall programme, particularly with respect to cost to farmers. Advice was sought on the usefulness of implementing the necessary changes. Here we review available data from the national eradication programme and strategy performance predictions from an expert system model to quantify expected benefits of the strategy change from strategic, budgetary and implementation points of view. Key findings from our work include (i) drawbacks associated with changes to programme implementation, in particular the loss of epidemiological information to allow real-time monitoring of eradication progress or to reliably predict time to eradication, (ii) the fact that only 25% of the herds in the Irish cattle sector (14% beef, 78% dairy herds) would benefit financially from a change to serosurveillance, with half of these participants benefiting by less than EUR 75 per annum at herd level or an average of EUR 1.22 per cow, and (iii) opportunities to enhance the effectiveness of the current programme, particularly in terms of time to eradication, through enforced compliance with PI removal as currently outlined in programme recommendations. The assembled information provides scientific arguments, contributing to an informed debate of the pros and cons of a change in eradication strategy in Ireland.

Urgent request on avian influenza.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 is currently causing an epizootic in Europe, infecting many poultry holdings as well as captive and wild bird species in more than 10 countries. Given the clear clinical manifestation, passive surveillance is considered the most effective means of detecting infected wild and domestic birds. Testing samples from new species and non-previously reported areas is key to determine the geographic spread of HPAIV H5N8 2016 in wild birds. Testing limited numbers of dead wild birds in previously reported areas is useful when it is relevant to know whether the virus is still present in the area or not, e.g. before restrictive measures in poultry are to be lifted. To prevent introduction of HPAIV from wild birds into poultry, strict biosecurity implemented and maintained by the poultry farmers is the most important measure. Providing holding-specific biosecurity guidance is strongly recommended as it is expected to have a high impact on the achieved biosecurity level of the holding. This is preferably done during peace time to increase preparedness for future outbreaks. The location and size of control and in particular monitoring areas for poultry associated with positive wild bird findings are best based on knowledge of the wider habitat and flight distance of the affected wild bird species. It is recommended to increase awareness among poultry farmers in these established areas in order to enhance passive surveillance and to implement enhanced biosecurity measures including poultry confinement. There is no scientific evidence suggesting a different effectiveness of the protection measures on the introduction into poultry holdings and subsequent spread of HPAIV when applied to H5N8, H5N1 or other notifiable HPAI viruses.

Quantifying the risk of spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) between contiguous herds in Ireland.

The control of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) mainly focuses on the identification and restriction of persistently infected (PI) animals. However, other transmission pathways can also result in new breakdowns, including the movement of animals pregnant with PI calves (Trojan animals) and the spread of infection between contiguous farms. Contiguous spread is likely an important problem in the BVD eradication programme in Ireland, given the spatial distribution of residual infection, and the highly fragmented nature of land holdings on many Irish farms. In this study, we seek to quantify the risk of BVD spread between contiguous herds in Ireland. Multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of a herd having BVD positive calves in January to June 2014 (the study period) when contiguous to a herd that had at least one BVD positive calf born in 2013. The models included risk factors relating to the study herd and to neighbouring herds. Separate multivariable models were built for each of four "PI-neighbour" factors relating to the presence of BVD+ animals and/or the presence of offspring of PI breeding animals. In total, 58,483 study herds were enrolled. The final model contained the province, the log of the number of calf births born during the study period, the number of cattle purchased between January 2013 and January 2014, and with a two-way interaction between the number of animals of unknown BVD status in the study herd and the PI-neighbour risk factor. When the number of PI-neighbour herds was used as the PI-neighbour risk factor, the odds ratio (OR) associated with the number of PI-neighbour herds ranged from 1.07 to 3.02, depending on the number of unknown animals present. To further explore the risk associated with PI-neighbour factors, the models were repeated using a subset of the study herds (n=7440) that contained no animals of unknown status. The best fitting model including "any PI-neighbour" as the PI-neighbour factor and also contained the log of the number of calf births born during the study period and the number of cattle purchased. The OR associated with "any PI-neighbour" was 1.92 (95% C.I. 1.37-2.70). This study provides the first quantitative information on the risks posed by the presence of BVD+ animals in neighbouring herds and also highlights the importance of clarifying the BVD status of animals that have not yet been tested in the context of the Irish eradication programme.

Assessing the potential spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in wild ungulates: general principles and application to a specific scenario in Thrace.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), due to infection with serotype O virus, occurred in wild boar and within eleven outbreaks in domestic livestock in the south-east of Bulgaria, Thrace region, in 2011. Hence, the issue of the potential for the spread and maintenance of FMD virus (FMDV) infection in a population of wild ungulates became important. This assessment focused on the spread and maintenance of FMDV infection within a hypothetical wild boar and deer population in an environment, which is characterized by a climate transitional between Mediterranean and continental and variable wildlife population densities. The assessment was based on three aspects: (i) a systematic review of the literature focusing on experimental infection studies to identify the parameters describing the duration of FMDV infection in deer and wild boar, as well as observational studies assessing the occurrence of FMDV infection in wild deer and wild boar populations, (ii) prevalence survey data of wild boar and deer in Bulgaria and Turkey and (iii) an epidemiological model, simulating the host-to-host spread of FMDV infections. It is concluded, based on all three aspects, that the wildlife population in Thrace, and so wildlife populations in similar ecological settings, are probably not able to maintain FMD in the long term in the absence of FMDV infection in the domestic host population. However, limited spread of FMDV infection in time and space in the wildlife populations can occur. If there is a continued cross-over of FMDV between domestic and wildlife populations or a higher population density, virus circulation may be prolonged.

Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of African swine fever cases in Russian wild boar does not reveal an endemic situation.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease of domestic pigs and wild boar. ASF was introduced into the southern Russian Federation in 2007 and is now reported to be spreading in populations of wild and domestic suids. An endemic situation in the local wild boar population would significantly complicate management of the disease in the livestock population. To date no sound method exists for identifying the characteristic pattern of an endemic situation, which describes infection persisting from generation to generation in the same population. To support urgent management decisions at the wildlife-livestock interface, a new algorithm was constructed to test the hypothesis of an endemic disease situation in wildlife on the basis of case reports. The approach described here uses spatial and temporal associations between observed diagnostic data to discriminate between endemic and non-endemic patterns of case occurrence. The algorithm was validated with data from an epidemiological simulation model and applied to ASF case data from southern Russia. Based on the algorithm and the diagnostic data available, the null hypothesis of an endemic situation of ASF in wild boar of the region was rejected.

Disease severity declines over time after a wild boar population has been affected by classical swine fever--legend or actual epidemiological process?

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a severe multi-systemic disease that can affect both domestic pigs and wild boar. Past outbreaks in European wild boar involved high-virulent CSF virus (CSFV) strains and were mostly self-limiting. In these cases, morbidity and mortality rates were high in the affected regions. In contrast, endemic infections have been observed in several European wild boar populations in recent decades. Morbidity and mortality rates were much lower despite the fact that outbreaks were still detected via diseased or fallen animals. The virus strains involved were mostly classified as genotype 2.3 strains of moderate virulence causing age-dependent disease outcomes. The mechanisms leading to the establishment and perpetuation of endemicity are still not fully understood, but the factor "moderate virulence" seems to be of considerable importance. In this study, we aim to clarify whether the perception of declined 'CSF severity' could hypothetically reflect the adaptation of an initially high-virulent virus or whether this might be better explained as a misinterpretation of observations. A mechanistic eco-epidemiological model was employed to follow up a highly virulent strain of CSFV introduced into large connected wild boar populations. In the model, the virulence of the CSF virus is represented by case mortality and life expectancy after lethal infection. Allowing for small stochastic variation, these two characteristics of the virus are passed on with every new simulated infection that occurs. Model analysis revealed a decrease from high to moderate case mortality within a few years of simulated perpetuation of the virus. The resulting mortality corresponded to the level where the population average of the infectious period and the basic reproduction number of the disease were maximal. This shift in virulence was sufficient to prolong virus circulation considerably beyond the epidemic phase of the simulated outbreaks. Alternative mechanistic explanations for the decrease in disease severity in a CSF-affected wild boar population were evaluated in the light of the simulation experiments and the available epidemiological or virological evidence. In conclusion, the current virus isolates of subgroup 2.3 might be the ideally adapted variants of the CSF virus for long-term perpetuation in wildlife and indeed may have evolved (once) during past outbreaks in large populations. A repeated perception of a declining severity of disease pattern during the course of a CSF outbreak, however, favours the explanation based on monitoring and detection biases rather than repeated observation of selection against highly virulent virus during the time of virus perpetuation.

Scenario-analysis evaluating semergency strategies after rabies re-introduction.

Now that the elimination of rabies in Western Europe is nearly complete, thanks to the oral mass vaccination of foxes (ORV) which took place over the last 25 years, it is necessary to prepare for emergency situations due to the re-introduction of rabies from still infected areas. Such emergency strategies should aim at minimizing the risk of falling back to large-scale vaccination, in a cost efficient manner. An approved spatially-explicit simulation model of spread and control of rabies was adapted to the new problem of re-introduction of rabies into free areas. The logic of the model and options for local emergency vaccination (for example ring-vaccination vs. compact area treatment or heavily concentrated vs. thin extended control areas) were determined. Based on systematic simulation experiments the performance of strategic options was assessed. Key issues such as public health risk (i.e. number of rabies cases), failure risk (i.e. disease breakout from the control area), and budgetary risk (i.e. duration of the emergency program) were simultaneously considered. The results obtained reveal efficiency relations that contradict a priori derived management suggestions.

What is the future of wildlife rabies control in Europe?

Over the last fifteen years or so, classical rabies in terrestrial wildlife has been eliminated from large areas of Western Europe. Over the next few years, terrestrial rabies is likely to occur only east of a line from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea; the overall aim is to eliminate terrestrial rabies from the whole European Union. Elimination of rabies from the less rich countries of Eastern Europe, and the protection of Europe against a resurgence of rabies in the longer term requires modifications to existing OIE and WHO strategies. Here we discuss the options available to eliminate rabies in wildlife while taking account of financial cost, and how to maintain a 'cordon sanitaire' along the eastern boundary of the EU in order to protect the rabies-free areas from rabies incursion. Minimising financial costs at the national level is obviously essential, considering the competing priorities for development and health. This could be achieved either by increasing external funding (for example by the EU) and/or by changing the currently agreed vaccination strategy to reduce costs; any such change must not substantially reduce the chances of rabies elimination. A cordon sanitaire might be placed outside the economic area of the EU, to protect the whole of the EU, or it might be placed within the easternmost countries to ensure logistical consistency of vaccination. Policy must also anticipate an emergency due to rabies breaking out in a previously freed region. Strategic planning may be complicated by the increasing range and abundance of the raccoon dog, an introduced species that is increasingly important as a host for fox rabies. It is argued here that models help to evaluate altemative strategies, exploring options for optimising costs by minimising bait density and frequency or by reducing the vaccination area.

The strength of 70%: revision of a standard threshold of rabies control.

The success of oral vaccination of foxes (ORV) conceptually is linked to the immunisation of host individuals beyond the herd immunity threshold. However, field evidence and theoretical analysis suggests that mathematically derived values of herd immunity might be rather conservative and, moreover, restrict the adjustment of standard ORV protocols in the case of limited resources. Here, the relationship between baiting effort, duration of ORV programmes and rabies elimination is analysed. An individual-based, spatially explicit model for the control of rabies in foxes that incorporates the important peculiarities of the vaccination process, i.e. the spatial distribution of infected hosts, irregular home-range use, heterogeneous bait coverage etc., is applied. Using multiple repetitions of simulated ORV programmes, the control outcome is analysed in a chance-like fashion overriding the yes-or-no prediction inherent in the herd immunity concept. It is shown why control planning must not only aim at particular immunisation levels but, simultaneously, has to specify the allowed time horizon of control success. It is demonstrated that planning a higher chance of elimination increases necessary effort non-linearly. It was found that low immunisation results (i.e. 50%) still provide a reasonable chance of control success. The potential changes in ORV planning and evaluation allowing for the integration of risk concepts in strategies are discussed.

High potency vaccines induce protection against heterologous challenge with foot-and-mouth disease virus.

In a series of three homologous and eight heterologous challenge experiments, it was shown that high potency vaccines against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype A can induce protection even against heterologous challenge infection with viruses that give low r-values with the vaccine strains. The challenge virus specific neutralizing antibody response on the day of challenge (21 days post vaccination) generally correlated with protection.

Processes leading to a spatial aggregation of Echinococcus multilocularis in its natural intermediate host Microtus arvalis.

The small fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) shows a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the intermediate host (Microtus arvalis). To identify the ecological processes responsible for this heterogeneity, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model. The model combines individual-based (foxes, Vulpes vulpes) and grid-based (voles) techniques to simulate the infections in both intermediate and definite host. If host populations are homogeneously mixed, the model reproduces field data for parasite prevalence only for a limited number of parameter combinations. As ecological parameters inevitably vary to a certain degree, we discarded the homogeneous mixing model as insufficient to gain insight into the ecology of the fox tapeworm cycle. We analysed five different model scenarios, each focussing on an ecological process that might be responsible for the heterogeneous spatial distribution of E. mulitlocularis in the intermediate host. Field studies revealed that the prevalence ratio between intermediate and definite host remains stable over a wide range of ecological conditions. Thus, by varying the parameters in simulation experiments, we used the robustness of the agreement between field data and model output as quality criterion for the five scenarios. Only one of the five scenarios was found to reproduce the prevalence ratio over a sufficient range of parameter combinations. In the accentuated scenario most tapeworm eggs die due to bad environmental conditions before they cause infections in the intermediate host. This scenario is supported by the known sensitivity of tapeworm eggs to high temperatures and dry conditions. The identified process is likely to lead to a heterogeneous availability of infective eggs and thus to a clumped distribution of infected intermediate hosts. In conclusion, areas with humid conditions and low temperatures must be pointed out as high risk areas for human exposure to E. multilocularis eggs as well.

Variation in body size in the tick complex Rhipicephalus appendiculatus/Rhipicephalus zambeziensis.

We examined the relationship between body size and the phenology of the tick complex Rhipicephalus appendiculatus/Rhipicephalus zambeziensis. These ticks transmit Theileria parva in cattle. In Africa, the body size of R. appendiculatus increases with latitude while the body size of the morphologically similar Rhipicephalus zambeziensis is constant at two different latitudes. A larger body size is necessary once survival becomes a constraint. The most plausible explanation for the smaller R. appendiculatus in equatorial Africa is the cost to produce a larger egg. The consequences of these findings for the introduction of R. appendiculatus in new environments are discussed. New field observations from southern Zambia indicate that R. appendiculatus body size does not vary seasonally as compared to eastern Zambia. This is an additional indication of the presence of a single diapausing population of larger ticks.

Cost-efficient vaccination of foxes (Vulpes vulpes) against rabies and the need for a new baiting strategy.

In this study, ecological models, optimisation algorithms and threshold analysis were linked to develop oral-vaccination strategies against rabies in fox populations. It is important that such strategies are cost-efficient and resistant to environmental conditions which would lessen their success. The model validation shows that the ecological models used are suited to predict the proportion of tetracycline- (TC) marked foxes in the course of time. This figure indicates the proportion of foxes which had at least one contact to vaccine baits, and is based on the design of the vaccination strategy (i.e. the number and timing of vaccination campaigns and the number of baits used per square kilometre and campaign). The design of a vaccination strategy also determines the costs. It is the combination of ecological models and optimisation algorithms that helped us to design a vaccination strategy which is capable of achieving a continuous rate of >70% of TC-marked foxes within an analytical horizon of 3 years at low costs. Compared to the standard strategy (baseline comparator), the improved strategy incurs just over half of the cost while almost doubling the number of weeks during which the proportion of TC-marked foxes is >70%. In the improved strategy, June is recommended as the time for bait distribution. The standard strategy, however, avoids summer months (because high temperatures reduce the durability of the baits) which again leads to a reduction of the bait intake by the foxes. Using threshold analysis, we examined the effect of a reduced durability of the baits on the design of the improved vaccination strategy. We concluded that distribution of baits in June was optimal given that the durability of baits is above a threshold of 7 days.

A field study to control Echinococcus multilocularis-infections of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in an endemic focus.

Foxes harbouring E. multilocularis represent an important source for human infection with this parasite which causes alveolar echinococcosis. To minimize the risk of human infection, a control study was conducted to reduce the prevalence of E. multilocularis-infection in foxes in an focal endemic area of 5000 km2. Foxes were given access to baits containing 50 mg praziquantel. Twenty baits per km2 were distributed by airplane during 14 campaigns. The effects of control measures were monitored by parasitological examination of 9387 foxes shot before and during the control trial. A distinct reduction of the prevalence of E. multilocularis was observed for both, the initially endemic area and the low-endemic periphery. The effect was more pronounced in adult than in juvenile foxes. Under control conditions, the risk area decreased in size. However, an eradication of the parasite was not reached with the chosen strategy.

Geographic information system-aided analysis of factors associated with the spatial distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis infections of foxes.

To investigate the influence of environmental factors on the spatial epidemiology of infections with Echinococcus multilocularis, foxes were sampled in a focal endemic region in the Northwest of Brandenburg, Germany, and examined for infection by the parasite. The locations where foxes were obtained were recorded in a geographic information system database. Positions of infected and uninfected foxes were analyzed on the background of geographic vector data of water, settlements, streets, forests, crop, and pasture. Fox positions were allocated to different land-use classes by use of a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite image. Infected foxes were more frequently shot near water, in areas of high soil humidity, and on pastures, suggesting that dryness may limit the tenacity of E. multilocularis oncospheres. Thus open landscapes with humid soil seem to be favorable for the life cycle of the parasite. In contrast, infected foxes were significantly underrepresented in forest areas.

Landscape metrics for assessment of landscape destruction and rehabilitation.

This investigation tested the usefulness of geometry-based landscape metrics for monitoring landscapes in a heavily disturbed environment. Research was carried out in a 75 sq km study area in Saxony, eastern Germany, where the landscape has been affected by surface mining and agricultural intensification. Landscape metrics were calculated from digital maps (1912, 1944, 1973, 1989) for the entire study area and for subregions (river valleys, plains), which were defined using the original geology and topography of the region. Correlation and factor analyses were used to select a set of landscape metrics suitable for landscape monitoring. Little land-use change occurred in the first half of the century, but political decisions and technological developments led to considerable change later. Metrics showed a similar pattern with almost no change between 1912 and 1944, but dramatic changes after 1944. Nonparametric statistical methods were used to test whether metrics differed between river valleys and plains. Significant differences in the metrics for these regions were found in the early maps (1912, 1944), but these differences were not significant in 1973 or 1989. These findings indicate that anthropogenic influences created a more home geneous landscape.

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination resurgence of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning.

We used a simulation model to study the spatio-temporal dynamics of a potential rabies outbreak in an immunized fox population after the termination of a long-term, large-scale vaccination program with two campaigns per year one in spring and one in autumn. The 'worst-case' scenario of rabies resurgence occurs if rabies has persisted at a low prevalence despite control and has remained undetected by a customary surveillance program or if infected individuals invade to the control area. Even if the termination of a vaccination program entails such a risk of a subsequent new outbreak, prolonged vaccination of a wild host population is expensive and the declining cost-benefit ratio over time eventually makes it uneconomic. Based on the knowledge of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a potential new outbreak gained from our modelling study, we suggest "terminating but observing" to be an appropriate strategy. Simulating the decline of population immunity without revaccination, we found that a new outbreak of rabies should be detected by customary surveillance programs within two years after the termination of the control. The time until detection does not depend on whether vaccination was terminated within the fourth, fifth or sixth years of repeated biannual campaigns. But it is faster if the program was completed with an autumn campaign (because next-year dispersal then occurs after a noticeable decrease in population immunity). Finally, if a rabid fox is detected after terminating vaccination, we determine a rule for defining a circular hazard area based on the simulated spatial spread of rabies. The radius of this area should be increased with the time since the last vaccination campaign. The trade-off between the number of foxes potentially missed by the emergency treatment and the cost for the emergency measures in an enlarged hazard area was found.