Training a neural network to predict dynamics it has never seen.

Neural networks have proven to be remarkably successful for a wide range of complicated tasks, from image recognition and object detection to speech recognition and machine translation. One of their successes lies in their ability to predict future dynamics given a suitable training data set. Previous studies have shown how echo state networks (ESNs), a type of recurrent neural networks, can successfully predict both short-term and long-term dynamics of even chaotic systems. This study shows that, remarkably, ESNs can successfully predict dynamical behavior that is qualitatively different from any behavior contained in their training set. Evidence is provided for a fluid dynamics problem where the flow can transition between laminar (ordered) and turbulent (seemingly disordered) regimes. Despite being trained on the turbulent regime only, ESNs are found to predict the existence of laminar behavior. Moreover, the statistics of turbulent-to-laminar and laminar-to-turbulent transitions are also predicted successfully. The utility of ESNs in acting as early-warning generators for transition is discussed. These results are expected to be widely applicable to data-driven modeling of temporal behavior in a range of physical, climate, biological, ecological, and finance models characterized by the presence of tipping points and sudden transitions between several competing states.

Direct statistical simulation of the Lorenz63 system.

We use direct statistical simulation to find the low-order statistics of the well-known dynamical system, the Lorenz63 model. Instead of accumulating statistics from numerical simulation of the dynamical system or solving the Fokker-Planck equation for the full probability distribution of the dynamical system, we directly solve the equations of motion for the low-order statistics after closing them by making several different choices for the truncation. Fixed points of the statistics are obtained either by time evolving or by iterative methods. The stability and statistical realizability of the fixed points of the statistics are analyzed, and the statistics so obtained are compared to those found by the traditional approach. Low-order statistics of the chaotic Lorenz63 system can be obtained from cumulant expansions more efficiently than by accumulation via direct numerical simulation or by solution of the Fokker-Planck equation.

Topological Gaseous Plasmon Polariton in Realistic Plasma.

Nontrivial topology in bulk matter has been linked with the existence of topologically protected interfacial states. We show that a gaseous plasmon polariton (GPP), an electromagnetic surface wave existing at the boundary of magnetized plasma and vacuum, has a topological origin that arises from the nontrivial topology of magnetized plasma. Because a gaseous plasma cannot sustain a sharp interface with discontinuous density, one must consider a gradual density falloff with scale length comparable to or longer than the wavelength of the wave. We show that the GPP may be found within a gapped spectrum in present-day laboratory devices, suggesting that platforms are currently available for experimental investigation of topological wave physics in plasmas.

Convection-driven kinematic dynamos at low Rossby and magnetic Prandtl numbers: Single mode solutions.

The onset of dynamo action is investigated within the context of a newly developed low Rossby, low magnetic Prandtl number, convection-driven dynamo model. This multiscale model represents an asymptotically exact form of an α^{2} mean field dynamo model in which the small-scale convection is represented explicitly by finite amplitude, single mode solutions. Both steady and oscillatory convection are considered for a variety of horizontal planforms. The kinetic helicity is observed to be a monotonically increasing function of the Rayleigh number. As a result, very small magnetic Prandtl number dynamos can be found for sufficiently large Rayleigh numbers. All dynamos are found to be oscillatory with an oscillation frequency that increases as the strength of the convection is increased and the magnetic Prandtl number is reduced. Kinematic dynamo action is strongly controlled by the profile of the helicity; single mode solutions which exhibit boundary layer behavior in the helicity show a decrease in the efficiency of dynamo action due to the enhancement of magnetic diffusion in the boundary layer regions. For a given value of the Rayleigh number, lower magnetic Prandtl number dynamos are excited for the case of oscillatory convection in comparison to steady convection. With regard to planetary dynamos, these results suggest that the low magnetic Prandtl number dynamos typical of liquid metals are more easily driven by thermal convection than by compositional convection.

Postoperative pneumoperitoneum on computed tomography: is the operation to blame?

BACKGROUND: Postoperative radiographs demonstrating pneumoperitoneum are a vexing problem for surgeons. This dilemma stems from uncertainty regarding the length of time for resolution of gas introduced operatively via either an open or a laparoscopic approach. We attempted to quantify the duration of pneumoperitoneum after both laparoscopic and open surgery in an animal model. METHODS: A prospective study using 2 groups of 10 pigs (Sus scrofa) was performed. The animals were assigned to undergo either an exploratory laparoscopy or an open abdominal exploration. Postoperatively, sequential computed tomography (CT) scans were performed to assess for the presence of pneumoperitoneum. RESULTS: Pneumoperitoneum resolution occurred sooner than average on CT scan in the laparoscopic group when compared to open group (1.79 days vs 4.73 days respectively; P value of .02). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative pneumoperitoneum resolves more quickly after laparoscopy when compared to open surgery in the porcine model. This information may aid in evaluating postoperative CT scans demonstrating pneumoperitoneum.

A growing global network's role in outbreak response: AFHSC-GEIS 2008-2009.

A cornerstone of effective disease surveillance programs comprises the early identification of infectious threats and the subsequent rapid response to prevent further spread. Effectively identifying, tracking and responding to these threats is often difficult and requires international cooperation due to the rapidity with which diseases cross national borders and spread throughout the global community as a result of travel and migration by humans and animals. From Oct.1, 2008 to Sept. 30, 2009, the United States Department of Defense's (DoD) Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) identified 76 outbreaks in 53 countries. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks were identified by the global network and included a wide spectrum of support activities in collaboration with host country partners, several of which were in direct support of the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). The network also supported military forces around the world affected by the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic of 2009. With IHR (2005) as the guiding framework for action, the AFHSC-GEIS network of international partners and overseas research laboratories continues to develop into a far-reaching system for identifying, analyzing and responding to emerging disease threats.

The AFHSC-Division of GEIS Operations Predictive Surveillance Program: a multidisciplinary approach for the early detection and response to disease outbreaks.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Operations (AFHSC-GEIS) initiated a coordinated, multidisciplinary program to link data sets and information derived from eco-climatic remote sensing activities, ecologic niche modeling, arthropod vector, animal disease-host/reservoir, and human disease surveillance for febrile illnesses, into a predictive surveillance program that generates advisories and alerts on emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The program's ultimate goal is pro-active public health practice through pre-event preparedness, prevention and control, and response decision-making and prioritization. This multidisciplinary program is rooted in over 10 years experience in predictive surveillance for Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Eastern Africa. The AFHSC-GEIS Rift Valley fever project is based on the identification and use of disease-emergence critical detection points as reliable signals for increased outbreak risk. The AFHSC-GEIS predictive surveillance program has formalized the Rift Valley fever project into a structured template for extending predictive surveillance capability to other Department of Defense (DoD)-priority vector- and water-borne, and zoonotic diseases and geographic areas. These include leishmaniasis, malaria, and Crimea-Congo and other viral hemorrhagic fevers in Central Asia and Africa, dengue fever in Asia and the Americas, Japanese encephalitis (JE) and chikungunya fever in Asia, and rickettsial and other tick-borne infections in the U.S., Africa and Asia.

Capacity-building efforts by the AFHSC-GEIS program.

Capacity-building initiatives related to public health are defined as developing laboratory infrastructure, strengthening host-country disease surveillance initiatives, transferring technical expertise and training personnel. These initiatives represented a major piece of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) contributions to worldwide emerging infectious disease (EID) surveillance and response. Capacity-building initiatives were undertaken with over 80 local and regional Ministries of Health, Agriculture and Defense, as well as other government entities and institutions worldwide. The efforts supported at least 52 national influenza centers and other country-specific influenza, regional and U.S.-based EID reference laboratories (44 civilian, eight military) in 46 countries worldwide. Equally important, reference testing, laboratory infrastructure and equipment support was provided to over 500 field sites in 74 countries worldwide from October 2008 to September 2009. These activities allowed countries to better meet the milestones of implementation of the 2005 International Health Regulations and complemented many initiatives undertaken by other U.S. government agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. Department of State.

Training initiatives within the AFHSC-Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System: support for IHR (2005).

Training is a key component of building capacity for public health surveillance and response, but has often been difficult to quantify. During fiscal 2009, the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supported 18 partner organizations in conducting 123 training initiatives in 40 countries for 3,130 U.S. military, civilian and host-country personnel. The training assisted with supporting compliance with International Health Regulations, IHR (2005). Training activities in pandemic preparedness, outbreak investigation and response, emerging infectious disease (EID) surveillance and pathogen diagnostic techniques were expanded significantly. By engaging local health and other government officials and civilian institutions, the U.S. military's role as a key stakeholder in global public health has been strengthened and has contributed to EID-related surveillance, research and capacity-building initiatives specified elsewhere in this issue. Public health and emerging infections surveillance training accomplished by AFHSC-GEIS and its Department of Defense (DoD) partners during fiscal 2009 will be tabulated and described.

Department of Defense influenza and other respiratory disease surveillance during the 2009 pandemic.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supports and oversees surveillance for emerging infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases, of importance to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). AFHSC-GEIS accomplishes this mission by providing funding and oversight to a global network of partners for respiratory disease surveillance. This report details the system's surveillance activities during 2009, with a focus on efforts in responding to the novel H1N1 Influenza A (A/H1N1) pandemic and contributions to global public health. Active surveillance networks established by AFHSC-GEIS partners resulted in the initial detection of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and several other countries, and viruses isolated from these activities were used as seed strains for the 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. Partners also provided diagnostic laboratory training and capacity building to host nations to assist with the novel A/H1N1 pandemic global response, adapted a Food and Drug Administration-approved assay for use on a ruggedized polymerase chain reaction platform for diagnosing novel A/H1N1 in remote settings, and provided estimates of seasonal vaccine effectiveness against novel A/H1N1 illness. Regular reporting of the system's worldwide surveillance findings to the global public health community enabled leaders to make informed decisions on disease mitigation measures and controls for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. AFHSC-GEIS's support of a global network contributes to DoD's force health protection, while supporting global public health.

Antimicrobial resistance surveillance in the AFHSC-GEIS network.

International infectious disease surveillance has been conducted by the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DoD) for many years and has been consolidated within the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) since 1998. This includes activities that monitor the presence of antimicrobial resistance among pathogens. AFHSC-GEIS partners work within DoD military treatment facilities and collaborate with host-nation civilian and military clinics, hospitals and university systems. The goals of these activities are to foster military force health protection and medical diplomacy. Surveillance activities include both community-acquired and health care-associated infections and have promoted the development of surveillance networks, centers of excellence and referral laboratories. Information technology applications have been utilized increasingly to aid in DoD-wide global surveillance for diseases significant to force health protection and global public health. This section documents the accomplishments and activities of the network through AFHSC-GEIS partners in 2009.

Influenza and respiratory disease surveillance: the US military's global laboratory-based network.

The US Department of Defense influenza surveillance system now spans nearly 500 sites in 75 countries, including active duty US military and dependent populations as well as host-country civilian and military personnel. This system represents a major part of the US Government's contributions to the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance Network and addresses Presidential Directive NSTC-7 to expand global surveillance, training, research and response to emerging infectious disease threats. Since 2006, the system has expanded significantly in response to rising pandemic influenza concerns. The expanded system has played a critical role in the detection and monitoring of ongoing H5N1 outbreaks worldwide as well as in the initial detection of, and response to, the current (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic. This article describes the system, details its contributions and the critical gaps that it is filling, and discusses future plans.

Limited role of spectra in dynamo theory: coherent versus random dynamos.

We discuss the importance of phase information and coherence times in determining the dynamo properties of turbulent flows. We compare the kinematic dynamo properties of three flows with the same energy spectrum. The first flow is dominated by coherent structures with nontrivial phase information and long eddy coherence times, the second has random phases and long-coherence time, the third has nontrivial phase information, but short coherence time. We demonstrate that the first flow is the most efficient kinematic dynamo, owing to the presence of sustained stretching and constructive folding. We argue that these results place limitations on the possible inferences of the dynamo properties of flows from the use of spectra alone, and that the role of coherent structures must always be accounted for.

Preserving cardiac output with beta-adrenergic receptor blockade and inhibiting the Bezold-Jarisch reflex during resuscitation from hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Successful fluid resuscitation after severe hemorrhage may be limited by activation of the Bezold-Jarisch reflex. We postulated that pharmacologic inhibition of this reflex would restore cardiovascular hemodynamics more effectively than would volume repletion alone during resuscitation for hemorrhagic shock. METHODS: We measured mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), and cardiac output (CO) during fluid resuscitation after hemorrhaging laboratory rats until their CO had decreased by 90% to 95%. To block distinct components of the Bezold-Jarisch reflex, animals received capsazepine, yohimbine, or propranolol before iso-osmotic volume repletion. RESULTS: Hemorrhage decreased MAP and CO; despite an initial tachycardia, HR fell significantly in response to this large volume blood loss. The degree of hemorrhage-induced bradycardia mediated by the Bezold-Jarisch reflex predicted resuscitation MAP. Capsazepine-treated animals had greater resuscitation-induced increases in MAP (values in mm Hg +/- SEM), 130 +/- 12, when compared with the saline-only animals, 90 +/- 7 (p = 0.004). The capsazepine group also had a greater increase in systemic vascular resistance over baseline values during resuscitation (86% +/- 19%) compared with vehicle-treated animals (26% +/- 14%, p = 0.02). Capsazepine had no effect on cardiac dynamics. On the other hand, yohimbine increased HR and diminished CO, and propranolol dramatically increased stroke volume by 30%. CONCLUSION: Inhibition of the Bezold-Jarisch reflex may aid fluid resuscitation after hemorrhage only if stroke volume is restored. Beta-adrenergic receptor antagonists such as propranolol may prove the most salutary of these agents in enhancing fluid resuscitation in patients with severe hemorrhage.

Alpha effect in a family of chaotic flows.

We perform numerical experiments to calculate the kinematic alpha effect for a family of maximally helical, chaotic flows with a range of correlation times. We find that the value of depends on the structure of the flow, on its correlation time and on the magnetic Reynolds number in a nontrivial way. Furthermore, it seems that there is no clear relation between alpha and the helicity of the flow, contrary to what is often assumed for the parametrization of mean-field dynamo models.

Downward pumping of magnetic flux as the cause of filamentary structures in sunspot penumbrae.

The structure of a sunspot is determined by the local interaction between magnetic fields and convection near the Sun's surface. The dark central umbra is surrounded by a filamentary penumbra, whose complicated fine structure has only recently been revealed by high-resolution observations. The penumbral magnetic field has an intricate and unexpected interlocking-comb structure and some field lines, with associated outflows of gas, dive back down below the solar surface at the outer edge of the spot. These field lines might be expected to float quickly back to the surface because of magnetic buoyancy, but they remain submerged. Here we show that the field lines are kept submerged outside the spot by turbulent, compressible convection, which is dominated by strong, coherent, descending plumes. Moreover, this downward pumping of magnetic flux explains the origin of the interlocking-comb structure of the penumbral magnetic field, and the behaviour of other magnetic features near the sunspot.