Incidence and Prediction of Unrelated Mortality After Successful Endoscopic Eradication Therapy for Barrett's Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Follow-up (FU) strategies after endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) for Barrett's neoplasia do not consider the risk of mortality from causes other than esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to evaluate this risk during long-term FU, and to assess whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality. METHODS: We included all patients with successful EET from the nationwide Barrett registry in the Netherlands. Data were merged with National Statistics for accurate mortality data. We evaluated annual mortality rates (AMRs, per 1000 person-years) and standardized mortality ratio for other-cause mortality. Performance of the CCI was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 1154 patients with a mean age of 64 years (±9). During median 59 months (p25-p75 37-91; total 6375 person-years), 154 patients (13%) died from other causes than EAC (AMR, 24.1; 95% CI, 20.5-28.2), most commonly non-EAC cancers (n = 58), cardiovascular (n = 31), or pulmonary diseases (n = 26). Four patients died from recurrent EAC (AMR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-1.4). Compared with the general Dutch population, mortality was significantly increased for patients in the lowest 3 age quartiles (ie, age <71 years). Validation of CCI in our population showed good discrimination (Concordance statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and fair calibration. CONCLUSION: The other-cause mortality risk after successful EET was more than 40 times higher (48; 95% CI, 15-99) than the risk of EAC-related mortality. Our findings reveal that younger post-EET patients exhibit a significantly reduced life expectancy when compared with the general population. Furthermore, they emphasize the strong predictive ability of CCI for long-term mortality after EET. This straightforward scoring system can inform decisions regarding personalized FU, including appropriate cessation timing. (NL7039).

Oncologic outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown whether the outcomes and risk models for T1 CRC based on non-screen-detected patients can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aimed to compare the stage distribution and oncologic outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program. METHODS: Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze differences in the time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated across the groups. RESULTS: 1803 patients were included (1114 [62%] screen-detected), with median follow-up of 51 months (interquartile range 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs. 8.9%; odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI 0.89-2.23); a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. The 3- and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, overall survival was significantly longer in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.38-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncologic outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in longer overall survival.

Cancer screening programs in South-east Asia and Western Pacific.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cancer can be altered by screening. The field of cancer screening is constantly evolving; from the initiation of program for new cancer types as well as exploring innovative screening strategies (e.g. new screening tests). The aim of this study was to perform a landscape analysis of existing cancer screening programs in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. METHODS: We conducted an overview of cancer screening in the region with the goal of summarizing current designs of cancer screening programs. First, a selective narrative literature review was used as an exploration to identify countries with organized screening programs. Second, representatives of each country with an organized program were approached and asked to provide relevant information on the organizations of their national or regional cancer screening program. RESULTS: There was wide variation in the screening strategies offered in the considered region with only eight programs identified as having an organized design. The majority of these programs did not meet all the essential criteria for being organized screening. The greatest variation was observed in the starting and stopping ages. CONCLUSIONS: Essential criteria of organized screening are missed. Improving organization is crucial to ensure that the beneficial effects of screening are achieved in the long-term. It is strongly recommended to consider a regional cancer screening network.

Differences in treatment of stage I colorectal cancers: a population-based study of colorectal cancers detected within and outside of a screening program.

BACKGROUND: Screen-detected colorectal cancers (CRCs) are often treated less invasively than stage-matched non-screen-detected CRCs, but the reasons for this are not fully understood. This study evaluated the treatment of stage I CRCs detected within and outside of the screening program in the Netherlands. METHODS : Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry for all stage I CRCs diagnosed between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2020 were analyzed, comparing patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics of screen-detected and non-screen-detected stage I CRCs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between treatment (local excision only vs. surgical oncologic resection) and patient and tumor characteristics, stratified for T stage and tumor location. RESULTS: Screen-detected stage I CRCs were relatively more often T1 than T2 compared with non-screen-detected stage I CRCs (66.9 % vs. 53.3 %; P < 0.001). When only T1 tumors were considered, both screen-detected colon and rectal cancers were more often treated with local excision only than non-screen-detected T1 cancers (odds ratio [OR] 2.19, 95 %CI 1.93-2.49; and OR 1.29, 95 %CI 1.05-1.59, respectively), adjusted for sex, tumor location, lymphovascular invasion (LVI) status, and tumor differentiation. CONCLUSIONS : Less invasive treatment of screen-detected stage I CRC is partly explained by the higher rate of T1 cancers compared with non-screen-detected stage I CRCs. T1 stage I screen-detected CRCs were also more likely to undergo less invasive treatment than non-screen-detected CRCs, adjusted for risk factors such as LVI and tumor differentiation. Future research should investigate whether the choice of local excision was related to unidentified cancer-related factors or the expertise of the endoscopists.

Interval post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer following a negative colonoscopy in a fecal immunochemical test-based screening program.

BACKGROUND: In the Dutch colorectal (CRC) screening program, fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-positive individuals are referred for colonoscopy. If no relevant findings are detected at colonoscopy, individuals are reinvited for FIT screening after 10 years. We aimed to assess CRC risk after a negative colonoscopy in FIT-positive individuals. METHODS: In this cross-sectional cohort study, data were extracted from the Dutch national screening information system. Participants with a positive FIT followed by a negative colonoscopy between 2014 and 2018 were included. A negative colonoscopy was defined as a colonoscopy during which no more than one nonvillous, nonproximal adenoma < 10 mm or serrated polyp < 10 mm was found. The main outcome was interval post-colonoscopy CRC (iPCCRC) risk. iPCCRC risk was reviewed against the risk of interval CRC after a negative FIT (FIT IC) with a 2-year screening interval. RESULTS: 35 052 FIT-positive participants had a negative colonoscopy and 24 iPCCRCs were diagnosed, resulting in an iPCCRC risk of 6.85 (95 %CI 4.60-10.19) per 10 000 individuals after a median follow-up of 1.4 years. After 2.5 years of follow-up, age-adjusted iPCCRC risk was approximately equal to FIT IC risk at 2 years. CONCLUSION: Risk of iPCCRC within a FIT-based CRC screening program was low during the first years after colonos-copy but, after 2.5 years, was the same as the risk in FIT-negative individuals at 2 years, when they are reinvited for screening. Colonoscopy quality may therefore require further improvement and FIT screening interval may need to be reduced after negative colonoscopy.

Personalised colorectal cancer screening strategies: Information needs of the target population.

Prior faecal Hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentrations of a negative fecal immunochemical test (FIT) can be used for risk stratification in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Individuals with higher f-Hb concentrations may benefit from a shorter screening interval (1 year), whereas individuals with undetectable f-Hb concentrations could benefit from a longer screening interval (3 year). Individuals' views on personalised CRC screening and information needed to make a well-informed decision is unknown. We conducted three semi-structured focus groups among individuals eligible for CRC screening (i.e. men and women aged 55 to 75) in the Netherlands. Thematic analysis was used to analyse participants' information need on personalised CRC screening strategies. Fourteen individuals took part. The majority were positive about CRC screening and indicated that they would participate in personalised CRC screening. The rationale for a longer interval among those at lowest risk was, however, unclear for many. The preferred information on individual risk was variable: ranging from full information to only information on the personalised strategy without mentioning the risk. It was not possible to address everyone's need with a single approach. Additional communications, e.g. public media campaigns, billboards, videos on social media, were also suggested as necessary. This study showed that preferences on receiving information on individual CRC risk varied substantially and no consensus was reached. Introducing a personalised screening programme will require careful communication, particularly around the rationale for the strategy, and a layered approach to deliver information.

Colorectal Cancer Stage Distribution at First and Repeat Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: For colorectal cancer (CRC) screening to be effective, it is important that screen-detected cancers are found at an early stage. Studies on stage distribution of screen-detected CRC at repeat screening of large population-based fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening programs and the impact of FIT cut-off values on staging currently are lacking. METHODS: We obtained data for FIT-positive participants (FIT cut-off, 47 µg hemoglobin/g feces) at their first or second (ie, repeat) screening from the Dutch National Screening Database from 2014 to 2018. Tumor characteristics were acquired through linkage with The Netherlands Cancer Registry. We compared stage at diagnosis (I-II vs III-IV) of CRCs detected at a first or second screening. In addition, we analyzed the hypothetical yield and stage distribution of CRC for different FIT cut-off values up to 250 µg hemoglobin/g feces. RESULTS: At the first and second screenings, respectively, 15,755 and 3304 CRCs were detected. CRCs detected at the first or second screening were equally likely to be stages I to II (66.5% vs 67.7%; relative risk, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05). A hypothetical increase of the FIT cut-off value from 47 µg to 250 µg resulted in a reduction of detected CRCs by 88.3% and 79.0% at the first or second screening, respectively. Even then, the majority of detected CRCs (63%-64%) still would be diagnosed at stages I to II. CONCLUSIONS: FIT-based screening is effective in downstaging CRC, and also at repeat screening. Increasingly, the FIT cut-off level has a limited impact on the stage distribution of detected CRCs, although it greatly affects CRC detection and thus is important to keep low.

Socio-demographic and cultural factors related to non-participation in the Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme.

BACKGROUND: High participation rates are essential for a screening programme to be beneficial. To reach non-participants in a targeted manner, insight in characteristics of non-participants is needed. We investigated demographic differences between participants and non-participants in the Dutch faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programme. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all invitees for CRC screening in 2018 and 2019. Participation status, birth year, and sex were extracted from the Dutch national screening information system and linked to demographic characteristics from Statistics Netherlands, including migration background, level of education, socioeconomic category, household composition, and household income. A multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between demographic factors and participation. RESULTS: A total of 4,383,861 individuals were invited for CRC screening in 2018 and 2019, of which 3,170,349 (72.3%) participated. Individuals were less likely to participate when they were single and/or living with others (single with other residents versus couple: odds ratio [OR] 0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.38), had a migration background (e.g. Moroccan migrant versus Dutch background: OR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.42-0.44), or had a low income (lowest versus highest quintile: OR 0.45, 95% CI: 0.44-0.45). Although to a lesser extent, non-participation was also significantly associated with being male, being younger, receiving social welfare benefits and having a low level of education. CONCLUSION: We found that individuals who were single and/or living with others, immigrants from Morocco or individuals with low income were the least likely to participate in the Dutch CRC screening programme. Targeted interventions are needed to minimise inequities in CRC screening.

Impact of delayed screening invitations on screen-detected and interval cancers in the Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme: individual-level data analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of delayed invitation on screen-detected and interval colorectal cancers (CRC) within a faecal immunochemical testing (FIT)-based CRC screening programme. DESIGN: All individuals that participated in 2017 and 2018 with a negative FIT and were eligible for CRC screening in 2019 and 2020 were included using individual-level data. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between either the different time periods (ie, 'before', 'during' and 'after' the first COVID-19 wave) or the invitation interval on screen-detected and interval CRCs. RESULTS: Positive predictive value for advanced neoplasia (AN) was slightly lower during (OR=0.91) and after (OR=0.95) the first COVID-19 wave, but no significant difference was observed for the different invitation intervals. Out of all individuals that previously tested negative, 84 (0.004%) had an interval CRC beyond the 24 months since their last invitation. The time period of invitation as well as the extended invitation interval was not associated with detection rates for AN and interval CRC rate. CONCLUSION: The impact of the first COVID-19 wave on screening yield was modest. A very small proportion of the FIT negatives had an interval CRC possibly due to an extended interval, which potentially could have been prevented if they had received the invitation earlier. Nonetheless, no increase in interval CRC rate was observed, indicating that an extended invitation interval up to 30 months had no negative impact on the performance of the CRC screening programme and a modest extension of the invitation interval seems an appropriate intervention.

Risk prediction for advanced neoplasia using longitudinal adherence measures to fecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programs.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of longitudinal adherence may predict advanced neoplasia (AN) detection in subsequent rounds of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. However, after more than five rounds, it is important to obtain a simplified measure. The aim was to determine the best simplified measure of longitudinal adherence to predict AN detection in CRC screening. METHODS: Individuals with four invitations from a Dutch Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT-)based pilot study and two Italian FIT-based CRC screening programs were included. We calculated AN detection in the fourth round, stratified by prior adherence. Five simplified measures were compared to full information (permutations) using chi-squared goodness-of-fit: adherence previous invitation, consistency, frequency, frequency + adherence previous invitation, and proportion of invitations covered. RESULTS: AN detection in the fourth round was highly dependent on prior adherence behavior. For inconsistent adherence, detection in the fourth round was strongly dependent on frequency and time since last participation. The performance of the simplified measures to capture this variation differed considerably. 'Adherence previous invitation' scored worst in predicting AN detection. 'Frequency+adherence previous invitation' had lowest chi-squared goodness-of-fit. DISCUSSION: The simplified measure 'frequency+adherence previous invitation' is the best measure to reflect patterns of longitudinal adherence and could be used to emphasize to individuals the importance of CRC screening.

Personalized colorectal cancer screening: study protocol of a mixed-methods study on the effectiveness of tailored intervals based on prior f-Hb concentration in a fit-based colorectal cancer screening program (PERFECT-FIT).

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the national population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program was implemented in the Netherlands. Biennial fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for hemoglobin (Hb) is used at a cut-off of 47 µg Hb per gram feces. The CRC screening program successfully started, with high participation rates and yield of screening. Now that the program has reached a steady state, there is potential to further optimize the program. Previous studies showed that prior fecal Hb (f-Hb) concentrations just below the FIT cut-off are associated with a higher risk for detection of advanced neoplasia (AN) at subsequent screening rounds. We aim to achieve a better balance between the harms and benefits of CRC screening by offering participants tailored invitation intervals based on prior f-Hb concentrations after negative FIT. METHODS: This mixed-methods study will be performed within the Dutch national CRC screening program and will consist of: (1) a randomized controlled trial (RCT), (2) focus group studies, and (3) decision modelling. The primary outcome is the yield of AN per screened individual in personalized screening vs. uniform screening. Secondary outcomes are perspectives on, acceptability of and adherence to personalized screening, as well as long-term outcomes of personalized vs. uniform screening. The RCT will include 20,000 participants of the Dutch CRC screening program; 10,000 in the intervention and 10,000 in the control arm. The intervention arm will receive a personalized screening interval based on the prior f-Hb concentration (1, 2 or 3 years). The control arm will receive a screening interval according to current practice (2 years). The focus group studies are designed to understand individuals' perspectives on and acceptability of personalized CRC screening. Results of the RCT will be incorporated into the MISCAN-Colon model to determine long-term benefits, harms, and costs of personalized vs. uniform CRC screening. DISCUSSION: The aim of this study is to evaluate the yield, feasibility, acceptability and (cost-) effectiveness of personalized CRC screening through tailored invitation intervals based on prior f-Hb concentrations. This knowledge may be of guidance for health policy makers and may provide evidence for implementing personalized CRC screening in The Netherlands and/or other countries using FIT as screening modality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05423886, June 21, 2022, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05423886.

Advanced-stage CRC incidence patterns following the phased implementation of the CRC screening programme in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: From 2014, the Dutch colorectal cancer (CRC) faecal immunochemical testing-based screening programme was gradually rolled out by birth cohort. We evaluated changes in advanced-stage CRC incidence by timing of invitation to further strengthen the evidence for the effectiveness of CRC screening. METHODS: Data on advanced-stage CRC incidence in the period 2010-2019 by invitation cohort were collected through the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Crude rates of advanced-stage CRC incidence and cumulative advanced-stage CRC incidence were calculated. Observed advanced-stage CRC incidence and cumulative advanced-stage CRC incidence were compared with expected advanced-stage CRC incidence and cumulative advanced-stage CRC incidence by invitation cohort using trend lines extrapolating data prior to the introduction of screening. RESULTS: For the invitation cohort that was first invited for screening in 2014, advanced-stage CRC incidence increased before the introduction of screening from 94.1 to 124.7 per 100,000 individuals in the period 2010-2013. In 2014, the observed increase was higher than in preceding years, to 184.9 per 100,000 individuals. Hereafter, a decrease in incidence was observed to levels below expected incidence based on trends before the introduction of screening. A similar pattern was observed for invitation cohorts in subsequent years, coinciding with the first invitation to the screening programme. In 2019, the observed incidence for all invitation cohorts remained below expected incidence. The cumulative advanced-stage CRC incidence in the 2014-2016 invitation cohorts was significantly lower than the expected cumulative CRC incidence in the period 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: In the period 2014-2019, an increase in advanced-stage CRC incidence was observed for all invitation cohorts first invited for screening, followed by a decrease below expected incidence, following the pattern of the phased implementation. The cumulative advanced-stage CRC incidence in invitation cohorts invited for screening multiple times was lower than expected based on trends from the pre-screening era. These findings support a causal relationship between the introduction of the Dutch screening programme and a decrease in advanced-stage CRC incidence.

Advanced serrated polyps as a target of screening: detection rate and positive predictive value within a fecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening population.

BACKGROUND : Advanced serrated polyps (ASPs) have a comparable risk to advanced adenomas for progression to colorectal cancer (CRC). The yield of most CRC screening programs, however, is based on advanced adenomas and CRC only. We assessed the ASP detection rate, and positive predictive value (PPV) including ASPs in a fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening program. METHODS : We analyzed the findings of follow-up colonoscopies of FIT-positive screenees in the Dutch CRC screening program from 2014 until 2020. Data were retrieved from the national screening and pathology database. An ASP was defined as any serrated polyp of ≥ 10 mm, sessile serrated lesion with dysplasia, or traditional serrated adenoma. The ASP detection rate was defined as the proportion of colonoscopies with ≥ 1 ASP. PPV was originally defined as the proportion of individuals with a CRC or advanced adenoma. The updated PPV definition included CRCs, advanced adenomas, and/or ASPs. RESULTS : 322 882 colonoscopies were included in the analyses. The overall detection rate of ASPs was 5.9 %. ASPs were detected more often in women than men (6.3 % vs. 5.6 %; P < 0.001). ASP detection rates in individuals aged 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, and 70 + were 5.2 %, 6.1 %, 6.1 %, and 5.9 %, respectively (P < 0.001). The PPV for CRCs and advanced adenomas was 41.1 % and increased to 43.8 % when including ASPs. The PPV increase was larger in women than in men (3.2 vs. 2.4 percentage points). CONCLUSIONS : 5.9 % of FIT-positive screenees had ASPs, but half of these were detected in combination with a CRC or advanced adenoma. Therefore, including ASPs results in a small increase in the yield of FIT-based screening.

Factors associated with interval colorectal cancer after negative FIT: Results of two screening rounds in the Dutch FIT-based CRC screening program.

The interval colorectal cancer (CRC) rate after negative fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an important quality indicator of CRC screening programs. We analyzed the outcomes of two rounds of the FIT-based CRC screening program in the Netherlands, using data from individuals who participated in FIT-screening from 2014 to 2017. Data of individuals with one prior negative FIT (first round) or two prior negative FITs (first and second round) were included. Outcomes included the incidence of interval CRC in FIT-negative participants (<47 µg Hb/g feces [µg/g]), FIT-sensitivity, and the probability of detecting an interval CRC by fecal hemoglobin concentration (f-Hb). FIT-sensitivity was estimated using the detection method and the proportional incidence method (based on expected CRC incidence). Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate whether f-Hb affects probability of detecting interval CRC, adjusted for sex- and age-differences. Incidence of interval CRC was 10.4 per 10 000 participants after the first and 9.6 after the second screening round. FIT-sensitivity based on the detection method was 84.4% (95%CI 83.8-85.0) in the first and 73.5% (95% CI 71.8-75.2) in the second screening round. The proportional incidence method resulted in a FIT-sensitivity of 76.4% (95%CI 73.3-79.6) in the first and 79.1% (95%CI 73.7-85.3) in the second screening round. After one negative FIT, participants with f-Hb just below the cut-off (>40-46.9 µg/g) had a higher probability of detecting an interval CRC (OR 16.9; 95%CI: 14.0-20.4) than had participants with unmeasurable f-Hb (0-2.6 µg/g). After two screening rounds, the odds ratio for interval CRC was 12.0 (95%CI: 7.8-17.6) for participants with f-Hb just below the cut-off compared with participants with unmeasurable f-Hb. After both screening rounds, the Dutch CRC screening program had a low incidence of interval CRC and an associated high FIT-sensitivity. Our findings suggest there is a potential for further optimizing CRC screening programs with the use of risk-stratified CRC screening based on prior f-Hb.

Faecal occult blood loss accurately predicts future detection of colorectal cancer. A prognostic model.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prognostic potential of repeated faecal haemoglobin (F-Hb) concentration measurements in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Prognostic model. SETTING: Dutch biennial FIT-based screening programme during 2014-2018. PARTICIPANTS: 265 881 participants completing three rounds of FIT, with negative test results (F-Hb <47 µg Hb/g faeces) in rounds 1 and 2. INTERVENTIONS: Colonoscopy follow-up in participants with a positive FIT (F-Hb ≥47 µg Hb/g faeces). MAIN OUTCOMES: We evaluated prognostic models for detecting advanced neoplasia (AN) and CRC in round 3, with as predictors, participant age, sex, F-Hb in rounds 1 and 2, and categories/combinations/non-linear transformations of F-Hb. Primary evaluation criteria included: risk prediction accuracy (calibration), discrimination of participants with versus without AN or CRC (optimism-adjusted C-statistics, range 0.5-1.0), the degree of risk stratification and C-statistics in external validation. RESULTS: Among study participants, 8806 (3.3%) had a positive FIT result, 3254 (1.2%) had AN detected and 557 (0.2%) had cancer. F-Hb concentrations in rounds 1 and 2 were the strongest outcome predictors, with adjusted ORs of up to 9.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 11.7) for the highest F-Hb category. Risk predictions matched the observed risk for most participants (calibration intercept -0.008 to -0.099; slope 0.982-0.998), and discriminated participants with versus without AN or CRC with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.75), respectively. The predicted risk ranged from 0.4% to 36.7% for AN and from 0.0% to 5.5% for CRC across participants. In external validation, the model retained similar discrimination accuracy for AN (C-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) and CRC (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.91). CONCLUSION: Participants at lower versus higher risk of future AN or CRC can be accurately identified based on their age, sex and particularly, prior F-Hb concentrations. Risk stratification should be considered based on this information.

Concurrent participation in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Many European countries offer organised population-based breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening programmes. Around age 55 and 60, Dutch women are invited to all three screening programmes. We examined the extent to which participation concurs and identified factors influencing concurrent participation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individual level data from breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening invitations between 2017 and 2019 were extracted from the Dutch screening registry. The percentages of women participating in all three, two, one, or none of the programmes around age 55 and 60, and before subsequent round invitation were determined. Multivariate ordinal regression analyses were performed to estimate whether population density, socio-economic status (SES) per postal code area, and time between the three invitations (<3, 3-6, >6 months) were associated with concurrent participation. RESULTS: Data from 332,484 women were analysed. At age 55, 53.7% participated in all three programmes, 22.1% in two, 11.7% in one, and 12.6% did not participate at all. At age 60, a similar participation pattern was observed. Women living in areas with higher population density were less likely (odds ratios 0.75-0.94) and women in higher SES groups were more likely (odds ratios 1.12-1.60) to participate in more screening programmes, although this positive association was smaller for the highest SES group. No substantial association was found between concurrent participation and timing of invitations. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of Dutch women participated in all three screening programmes and around 12% did not participate in any. Concurrent participation was lower in cities and lower SES groups.

Urban density differences in colorectal cancer screening participation and screening yield in The Netherlands.

Lower socioeconomic status has been associated with higher colorectal cancer incidence and lower participation in population-based screening with faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) but regional variations in participation may also exist. We analysed differences in participation and yield in colorectal cancer screening by urban density level. Data of all invitees to the Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme in 2014-2015 were included. Primary outcomes were participation (returning FIT), FIT positive predictive value, and screening yield (advanced neoplasia detected in invitees). Differences were explored across five levels of urban density. In total 1,873,639 screening invitees were included. FIT participation was 77.3% in the lowest versus 62.8% in the highest urban areas (RR 1.23; 95%CI 1.23-1.24). FIT positive predictive value was 58.6% in the lowest versus 55.2% in the highest urban areas (RR 1.06; 95% CI 1.04-1.09). Screening yield was also higher in the lowest (2.1%-2.3%) compared to the highest urban areas (1.8%). Compared to socioeconomic status, differences in urban density were associated with larger differences in screening participation. In conclusion, participation is lower and fewer cases of advanced neoplasia are detected in areas with a high urban density in the Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme. Differences in urban density could be used in tailoring regional strategies to target barriers in colorectal cancer screening.

Socioeconomic differences in participation and diagnostic yield within the Dutch national colorectal cancer screening programme with faecal immunochemical testing.

BACKGROUND: CRC mortality rates are higher for individuals with a lower socioeconomic status (SES). Screening could influence health inequalities. We therefore aimed to investigate SES differences in participation and diagnostic yield of FIT screening. METHODS: All invitees in 2014 and 2015 in the Dutch national CRC screening programme were included in the analyses. We used area SES as a measure for SES and divided invitees into quintiles, with Quintile 1 being the highest SES. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the participation rate, positivity rate, colonoscopy uptake, positive predictive value (PPV) and detection rate across the SES groups. RESULTS: Participation to FIT screening was significantly lower for Quintile 5 (67.0%) compared to the other Quintiles (73.0% to 75.1%; adjusted OR quintile 5 versus quintile 1: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.72-0.74), as well as colonoscopy uptake after a positive FIT (adjusted OR 0.73, 95%CI: 0.69-0.77). The detection rate per FIT participant for advanced neoplasia gradually increased from 3.3% in Quintile 1 to 4.0% in Quintile 5 (adjusted OR 1.20%, 95%CI 1.16-1.24). As a result of lower participation, the yield per invitee was similar for Quintile 5 (2.04%) and Quintile 1 (2.00%), both being lower than Quintiles 2 to 4 (2.20%-2.28%). CONCLUSIONS: Screening has the potential to reduce health inequalities in CRC mortality, because of a higher detection in participants with a lower SES. However, in the Dutch screening programme, this is currently offset by the lower participation in this group.