Can platform use patterns be an indicator of HIV-related risk and sub-group heterogeneity among men who have sex with men in Singapore: a latent class analysis.

Introduction: Low-level HIV epidemic settings like Singapore face the challenge of reaching men at-risk who have less contact with programmes. We investigated patterns of meeting platform use by men seeking male sexual partners (MSM) as potential marker of risk to differentiate sub-groups for interventions. Methods: Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was applied to a survey sample of MSM recruited from bars/clubs, saunas and a smartphone application, using purposive sampling. The best-fit LCA model which identified homogeneous sub-groups with similar patterns of meeting platform was factored in multivariable regression to identify associations with risk behaviors on the pathway to HIV infection. Results: Overall 1,141 MSM were recruited from bars/clubs (n = 426), saunas (n = 531), and online (n = 184). Five patterns emerged, reflecting salient platform use characteristics: Sauna-centric (SC; n = 413), App-centric (AC; n = 276), Multiple-platforms (MP; n = 123), Platform-inactive (PI; n = 257), and "Do not hook up" (DNH; n = 72) classes. Men in the SC and MP classes had high probabilities of using saunas to meet partners; SC were older and less likely to have disclosed their sexual orientation. The MP class had high probabilities of connecting across all platforms in addition to saunas and more likely to have disclosed their sexual orientation, than the PI class. Men in the SC and MP classes had twice the odds of reporting multiple sex partners (aORSC = 2.1; 95%CI: 1.33.2; aORMP = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.14.6). Single/non-partnered MSM and those using alcohol/drugs during sex had 1.7 (95%CI: 1.22.5) and 3.2 (95%CI: 2.05.1) the odds respectively, of reporting multiple sex partners. The SC and MP classes had higher odds of engaging in group sex while MSM using alcohol/drugs during sex had twice the odds of reporting group sex. Alcohol/drugs and group sex were independently associated with condomless sex (as was lower education). Group sex, alcohol/drugs during sex, disclosure of sexual orientation or being Singaporean/permanent resident were associated with recent testing for HIV. Discussion: The five distinct risk profiles identified can help tailor differentiated HIV interventions-combined with field knowledge and other prevention-to expand HIV self-testing, Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis and other services (e.g., Mpox vaccination) to sub-groups at risk.

Coronavirus disease and home recovery: a Singapore perspective.

Objective: At the beginning of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Singapore, the strategy initially involved aggressive ring-fencing of infections, before pivoting towards managing recurrent local interspersed outbreaks of COVID-19. A key feature of Singapore's efforts to preserve health-care capacity was the implementation of the nationwide Home Recovery Programme (HRP), whereby patients were allowed to recover at home as long as they met certain criteria. The programme was centrally coordinated by Singapore's Ministry of Health and was supported by telemedicine providers, primary care physicians and government agencies. This report aims to highlight Singapore's experience in coordinating and implementing the HRP, the challenges faced and the outcomes. Methods: Published and internal data from the Ministry of Health in Singapore, along with policy documents, were reviewed together with a brief literature review of similar programmes conducted globally. Results: Implementation of the HRP led to the majority of patients (98%) recovering from COVID-19 in the outpatient setting, with similar mortality rates to inpatient settings. Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 cases were reduced as compared to previously, alleviating strain on the health-care system. Discussion: The HRP was largely successful at preventing health-care capacities from being overwhelmed, while keeping fatalities to a minimum. Nonetheless, the risks of emergent variants of concern remain present, and heightened vigilance and potential modification of existing protocols based on fluctuations in virulence and infectivity are still needed.

Predictors of disease severity in SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant XBB sublineages and variants of interest.

The Omicron variant has been reported to present with milder disease compared with Delta, although this may be due to immunity from vaccination and prior exposure. Predictors of severity with recent strains have not been well characterized. We retrospectively examined consecutive cases of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 (defined as requiring supplemental oxygenation, intensive care or mortality) admitted to seven tertiary hospitals across Singapore in April 2023. Whole genome sequencing was performed on each isolate to determine the sublineage, while baseline clinical, laboratory data and outcomes were tabulated. We reviewed 182 patients with moderate-to-severe illness and 466 controls hospitalized at the same time. Advanced age and presence of chronic kidney disease predicted adverse outcome. Previously reported markers such as radiographic evidence of pneumonia, elevated C-reactive protein and serum creatinine levels at presentation also correlated with adverse outcomes. There were no observable differences in outcomes with any specific Omicron XBB sublineage. We did not find any specific Omicron XBB sublineage that was associated with worse outcomes. Larger multinational studies would be important to track the clinical evolution of the virus in its current endemic state.

National HIV programme testing recommendations.

In recognition of the morbidity and mortality associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (UNAIDS) aims to end the epidemic by setting and striving to achieve the ambitious 95-95-95 targets. However, Singapore is still not performing well in the first UNAIDS target. The National HIV Programme (NHIVP) developed this set of recommendations based on an adaptation of major international guidelines from the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The goals of this recommendation are: (1) to increase the uptake of HIV testing; (2) to allow earlier detection and identification of individuals with unrecognised HIV infection; (3) to facilitate linkage to clinical services; and (4) reduce further transmission of HIV infection in Singapore.

Real-world effectiveness of sotrovimab and remdesivir for early treatment of high-risk hospitalized COVID-19 patients: A propensity score adjusted retrospective cohort study.

Early treatment of high-risk COVID-19 patients may prevent disease progression. However, there are limited data to support treatment of hospitalized or fully vaccinated patients with mild-to-moderate disease. In this retrospective cohort study, we studied the effect of early use of sotrovimab and remdesivir in high-risk hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We included PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to the National Centre for Infectious Diseases who presented within the first 5 days of illness, and who were not requiring oxygen or ICU care at presentation. Sotrovimab- and remdesivir-treated groups were compared with control (no early treatment). A multiple propensity-score adjusted multivariable regression analysis was conducted with a composite primary endpoint of in-hospital deterioration (oxygen requirement, ICU admission, or mortality). Of 1118 patients, 841 were in the control group, 106 in the sotrovimab group and 169 in the remdesivir group. The median age was 63 years (IQR 46-74 years) and 505 (45.2%) were female. In unvaccinated patients, both remdesivir and sotrovimab treatment were protective (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.19, 95% CI 0.064-0.60 and 0.18 [95% CI 0.066-0.47]), respectively. Contrarily, among the vaccinated patients there was no significant treatment effect with early remdesivir treatment (aOR 2.51, 95% CI 0.83-7.57, p = 0.10). Remdesivir and sotrovimab treatment, given early in the disease course to unvaccinated high-risk patients, was effective in reducing the risk of in-hospital deterioration and severe disease. This effect was not seen in fully vaccinated patients, which may be due to a small sample size or residual confounding.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against diphtheria antitoxin among migrant workers in Singapore, 2016-2019.

BACKGROUND: Since the last local case of diphtheria in 1992, there had not been any case in Singapore until an autochthonous case was reported in 2017. This fatal diphtheria case of a migrant worker raised concerns about the potential re-emergence of locally transmitted toxigenic diphtheria in Singapore. We conducted a seroprevalence study to assess the immunity levels to diphtheria among migrant workers in Singapore. METHODS: Residual sera from migrant workers who hailed from Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines were tested for anti-diphtheria toxoid immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. These migrant workers previously participated in a survey between 2016 and 2019 and had provided blood samples as part of the survey procedure. RESULTS: A total of 2176 migrant workers were included in the study. Their overall mean age was 27.1 years (standard deviation 5.0), range was 20-43 years. The proportion having at least basic protection against diphtheria (antitoxin titres ≥ 0.01 IU/ml) ranged from 77.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 72.8 - 82.3%) among migrant workers from Bangladesh to 96.7% (95% CI 92.5 - 98.6%) in those hailing from Malaysia. The proportion showing full protection (antitoxin titres ≥ 0.10 IU/ml) ranged from 10.1% (95% CI 6.5 - 15.4%) in Chinese workers to 23.0% (95% CI 17.1 - 30.3%) in Malaysian workers. There were no significant differences in the proportion with at least basic protection across birth cohorts, except for those from Bangladesh where the seroprevalence was significantly lower in younger migrant workers born after 1989. CONCLUSIONS: The proportions having at least basic protection against diphtheria in migrant workers from five out of seven Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines) were higher than 85%, the threshold for diphtheria herd immunity. Seroprevalence surveys should be conducted periodically to assess the level of immunity against diphtheria and other vaccine preventable diseases in migrant worker population, so that appropriate interventions such as booster vaccination can be implemented proactively to prevent sporadic outbreaks.

Prevalence of measles antibodies among migrant workers in Singapore: a serological study to identify susceptible population subgroups.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, two clusters of measles cases were reported in migrant worker dormitories in Singapore. We conducted a seroprevalence study to measure the level of susceptibility to measles among migrant workers in Singapore. METHODS: Our study involved residual sera of migrant workers from seven Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines) who had participated in a survey between 2016 and 2019. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels were first measured using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test kit. Those with equivocal or negative IgG results were further evaluated using plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). RESULTS: A total of 2234 migrant workers aged 20-49 years were included in the study. The overall prevalence of measles IgG antibodies among migrant workers from the seven Asian countries was 90.5% (95% confidence interval 89.2-91.6%). The country-specific seroprevalence ranged from 80.3 to 94.0%. The seroprevalence was significantly higher among migrant workers born in 1965-1989 than those born in 1990-1999 (95.3% vs. 86.6%, p < 0.0005), whereas there was no significant difference by gender (90.8% in men vs. 89.9% in women, p = 0.508). 195 out of 213 samples with equivocal or negative ELISA results were tested positive using PRNT. CONCLUSION: The IgG seroprevalence in migrant workers was below the herd immunity threshold of 95% for measles. Sporadic outbreaks may occur in susceptible individuals due to high transmissibility of measles virus. Seroprevalence surveys can help identify susceptible subgroups for vaccination.

Epidemiological factors associated with the absence of previous HIV testing among HIV-positive persons in Singapore, 2012-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the temporal trend and identify risk factors associated with the absence of previous HIV testing prior to their diagnosis among HIV-positive persons in Singapore. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analysed data of HIV-positive persons infected via sexual transmission, who were notified to the National HIV Registry in 2012-2017. OUTCOMES: Epidemiological factors associated with the absence of HIV testing prior to diagnosis were determined separately for two groups of HIV-positive persons: early and late stages of HIV infection at diagnosis. RESULTS: 2188 HIV-positive persons with information on HIV testing history and CD4 cell count were included in the study. The median age at HIV diagnosis was 40 years (IQR 30-51). Nearly half (45.1%) had never been tested for HIV prior to their diagnosis. The most common reason cited for no previous HIV testing was 'not necessary to test' (73.7%). The proportion diagnosed at late-stage HIV infection was significantly higher among HIV-positive persons who had never been tested for HIV (63.9%) compared with those who had undergone previous HIV tests (29.0%). Common risk factors associated with no previous HIV testing in multivariable logistic regression analysis stratified by stage of HIV infection were: older age at HIV diagnosis, lower educational level, detection via medical care and HIV infection via heterosexual transmission. In the stratified analysis for persons diagnosed at early-stage of HIV infection, in addition to the four risk factors, women and those of Malay ethnicity were also less likely to have previous HIV testing prior to their diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Targeted prevention efforts and strategies are needed to raise the level of awareness of HIV/AIDS and to encourage early and regular screening among the at-risk groups by making HIV testing more accessible.

Comparison of mental-physical comorbidity, risk of death and mortality among patients with mental disorders - A retrospective cohort study.

AIM: To compare the risk of death, the prevalence of comorbid chronic physical illness and mortality among an Asian population of patients with mental disorders. METHODS: This was a retrospective data analysing of medical records of patients with schizophrenia, depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, alcohol use disorder (AUD) or substance use disorder and the comorbid chronic physical illnesses. The hazard risk of death was calculated with Cox regression and compared between patients with and without comorbid chronic physical illness(es). Odds ratios of specific comorbid chronic physical illness were calculated with logistic regression and mean crude death rate was calculated for patients with different mental disorders. RESULTS: A total of 56,447 patients with mental disorders were included in the analysis. Compared to patients without comorbid physical illness, patients with mental-physical comorbidity were associated with a higher risk of death [2.36 (2.22-2.52); hazard ratio (95% CI)] and less estimated survival days [2157 (2142-2172) vs 2508 (2504-2513)]. Compared to other mental disorders, those with AUD had the highest prevalence of two or more comorbid chronic physical illnesses and associated with the highest odds of comorbid hypertension, diabetes mellitus, stroke, nephritis, chronic kidney disease, and cancer. The highest one-year crude death rate was similarly observed in patients with AUD. CONCLUSIONS: Mental-physical comorbidity was associated with a higher risk of death compared to patients with mental disorders only. The highest prevalence of mental-physical comorbidity and mortality were observed in patients with AUD. More attention and resources may be needed to tackle the burden of AUD.

Short-term mortality from HIV-infected persons diagnosed from 2012 to 2016: Impact of late diagnosis of HIV infection.

ABSTRACT: We investigated the temporal trends of short-term mortality (death within 1 year of diagnosis) and cause-specific deaths in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons by stage of HIV infection at diagnosis. We also assessed the impact of late diagnosis (LD) on short-term mortality.Epidemiological records of HIV-infected Singapore residents from the National HIV Registry were linked to death records from the Registry of Births and Deaths for observational analyses. Newly-diagnosed HIV cases with available cluster of differentiation 4 count at time of diagnosis in a 5-year period from 2012 to 2016 were included in the study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of LD for all deaths excluding suicides and self-inflicted or accidental injuries, and HIV/ acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths occurring within 1 year post-diagnosis were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for age at HIV/AIDS diagnosis. Population attributable risk proportions (PARPs) were then calculated using the adjusted HRs.Of the 1990 newly-diagnosed HIV cases included in the study, 7.2% had died by end of 2017, giving an overall mortality rate of 2.16 per 100 person-years (PY) (95% CI 1.82-2.54). The mortality rate was 3.81 per 100 PY (95% CI 3.15-4.56) in HIV cases with LD, compared with 0.71 (95% CI 0.46-1.05) in non-LD (nLD) cases. Short-term mortality was significantly higher in LD (9.1%) than nLD cases (1.1%). Of the 143 deaths reported between 2012 and 2017, 58.0% were HIV/AIDS-related (nLD 28.0% vs LD 64.4%). HIV/AIDS-related causes represented 70.4% of all deaths which occurred during the first year of diagnosis (nLD 36.4% vs LD 74.7%). The PARP of short-term mortality due to LD was 77.8% for all deaths by natural causes, and 87.8% for HIV/AIDS-related deaths.The mortality rate of HIV-infected persons with LD was higher than nLD, especially within 1 year of diagnosis, and HIV/AIDS-related causes constituted majority of these deaths. To reduce short-term mortality, persons at high risk of late-stage HIV infection should be targeted in outreach efforts to promote health screening and remove barriers to HIV testing and treatment.

Epidemiological factors associated with recent HIV infection among newly-diagnosed cases in Singapore, 2013-2017.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis is crucial in securing optimal outcomes in the HIV care cascade. Recent HIV infection (RHI) serves as an indicator of early detection in the course of HIV infection. Surveillance of RHI is important in uncovering at-risk groups in which HIV transmission is ongoing. The study objectives are to estimate the proportion of RHI among persons newly-diagnosed in 2013-2017, and to elucidate epidemiological factors associated with RHI in Singapore. METHODS: As part of the National HIV Molecular Surveillance Programme, residual plasma samples of treatment-naïve HIV-1 positive individuals were tested using the biotinylated peptide-capture enzyme immunoassay with a cutoff of normalized optical density ≤ 0.8 for evidence of RHI. A recent infection testing algorithm was applied for the classification of RHI. We identified risk factors associated with RHI using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 701 newly-diagnosed HIV-infected persons were included in the study. The median age at HIV diagnosis was 38 years (interquartile range, 28-51). The majority were men (94.2%), and sexual route was the predominant mode of HIV transmission (98.3%). Overall, 133/701 (19.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 16.2-22.0%) were classified as RHI. The proportions of RHI in 2015 (31.1%) and 2017 (31.0%) were significantly higher than in 2014 (11.2%). A significantly higher proportion of men having sex with men (23.4, 95% CI 19.6-27.6%) had RHI compared with heterosexual men (11.1, 95% CI 7.6-15.9%). Independent factors associated with RHI were: age 15-24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.18, 95% CI 1.69-10.31) compared with ≥55 years; HIV diagnosis in 2015 (aOR 2.36, 95% CI 1.25-4.46) and 2017 (aOR 2.52, 95% CI 1.32-4.80) compared with 2013-2014; detection via voluntary testing (aOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07-3.43) compared with medical care; and self-reported history of HIV test(s) prior to diagnosis (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.06-2.81). CONCLUSION: Although there appears to be an increasing trend towards early diagnosis, persons with RHI remain a minority in Singapore. The strong associations observed between modifiable behaviors (voluntary testing and HIV testing history) and RHI highlight the importance of increasing the accessibility to HIV testing for at-risk groups.

Healthcare workers in Singapore infected with COVID-19: 23 January-17 April 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics of healthcare workers (HCWs) infected with COVID-19 and to examine their sources of exposure. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study using data extracted from the centralized disease notification system comprising individuals confirmed with COVID-19 in Singapore between 23 January and 17 April 2020. Occupation of HCWs was categorized into six categories. Their job nature was classified into "frontline" or "back-end" based on the frequency of direct patient contact, and source of exposure was classified as family/household, social interaction or workplace. Chi-square and median tests were used to identify differences between categorical groups and sample medians, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 88 (1.7%) HCWs were identified from 5,050 cases. Their median age was 35 years. Chinese and Indians constituted 42.0% and 31.8%, respectively, and 43.2% were foreigners. The majority (63.6%) was serving at frontlines handling patient-facing duties, 15.9% were doctors, 11.4% were nurses and 44.3% were ancillary staff. About 81.8% acquired the infection locally, of which 40.3% did not have a clearly identifiable source of exposure. Exposure from the family/household was most common (27.8%), followed by workplace (16.7%) and social interaction (15.3%). All HCWs were discharged well with no mortality; three (3.4%) were ever admitted to intensive care unit and required increased care. CONCLUSION: Healthcare workers accounted for a small proportion of COVID-19 cases in Singapore with favourable outcomes. The possibility of transmission resulting from family/household exposure and social interactions highlights the need to maintain strict vigilance and precautionary measures at all times beyond the workplace.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Singapore Experience. A Review of the First Eight Months.

As of 27 October 2020, there have been 57,980 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Singapore, with 28 fatalities. To summarise the Singapore experience in managing and containing COVID-19 based on available published data and from relevant sources, a review of literature using research databases such as PubMed and OVID Medline, along with non-peer-reviewed articles and other sources, was conducted with the search terms 'COVID-19' and 'Singapore'. Research conducted in Singapore has provided insight into the clinical manifestations and period of infectivity of COVID-19, demonstrated evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission, linked infection clusters using serological tools, and highlighted aspects of hospital-based environmental contamination. It has also provided guidance for diagnostic testing and has described immune and virologic correlates with disease severity. Evidence of effectiveness of containment measures such as early border control, rigorous contact training, and calibrated social distancing measures have also been demonstrated. Singapore's multipronged strategy has been largely successful at containing COVID-19 and minimising fatalities, but the risk of re-emergence is high.

Connecting clusters of COVID-19: an epidemiological and serological investigation.

BACKGROUND: Elucidation of the chain of disease transmission and identification of the source of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections are crucial for effective disease containment. We describe an epidemiological investigation that, with use of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) serological assays, established links between three clusters of COVID-19. METHODS: In Singapore, active case-finding and contact tracing were undertaken for all COVID-19 cases. Diagnosis for acute disease was confirmed with RT-PCR testing. When epidemiological information suggested that people might have been nodes of disease transmission but had recovered from illness, SARS-CoV-2 IgG serology testing was used to establish past infection. FINDINGS: Three clusters of COVID-19, comprising 28 locally transmitted cases, were identified in Singapore; these clusters were from two churches (Church A and Church B) and a family gathering. The clusters in Church A and Church B were linked by an individual from Church A (A2), who transmitted SARS-CoV-2 infection to the primary case from Church B (F1) at a family gathering they both attended on Jan 25, 2020. All cases were confirmed by RT-PCR testing because they had active disease, except for A2, who at the time of testing had recovered from their illness and tested negative. This individual was eventually diagnosed with past infection by serological testing. ELISA assays showed an optical density of more than 1·4 for SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein and receptor binding domain antigens in titres up to 1/400, and viral neutralisation was noted in titres up to 1/320. INTERPRETATION: Development and application of a serological assay has helped to establish connections between COVID-19 clusters in Singapore. Serological testing can have a crucial role in identifying convalescent cases or people with milder disease who might have been missed by other surveillance methods. FUNDING: National Research Foundation (Singapore), National Natural Science Foundation (China), and National Medical Research Council (Singapore).

Impact of medication nonadherence on stroke recurrence and mortality in patients after first-ever ischemic stroke: Insights from registry data in Singapore.

PURPOSE: This retrospective cohort study aims to examine adherence to secondary stroke preventive medications and their association with risk of stroke recurrence and mortality in patients after first-ever ischemic stroke. METHODS: Using data from the National Healthcare Group and Singapore Stroke Registry, patients with first-ever ischemic stroke between 2010 and 2014 were included, and categorized based on antithrombotic or statin adherence using the proportion of days covered: high (≥75%), intermediate (50%-74%), low (25%-49%), and very low (<25%). The primary outcome was first recurrent ischemic stroke within a year after hospital discharge, while the secondary composite outcomes were (a) stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality and (b) stroke recurrence and cardiovascular mortality. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the association between medication adherence and outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. RESULTS: Among ischemic stroke patients prescribed with antithrombotics (n = 1139) or statins (n = 1160) at hospital discharge, about one-third were highly adherent to their medications. Patients with lower medication adherence tended to be younger, were admitted to private ward classes, and were without hypertension. Compared with the patients with high medication adherence, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in patients with very low antithrombotic (aHR = 4.65; 95% CI: 1.45-14.89) or statin (aHR = 3.44; 95% CI: 0.93-12.74) adherence. Similar findings were observed for the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Poor adherence to antithrombotic and statin treatment increases the risk of recurrent stroke and mortality in patients after first-ever ischemic stroke. Further measures are needed to improve medication adherence among stroke survivors.

Predictive factors of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus, Acute Myocardial Infarction and stroke in a cohort with Impaired Fasting Glucose in Singapore.

AIMS: This study describes the incidence and predictive factors for development of Type II Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) and stroke, among subjects with IFG over a five-year period. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of subjects with newly diagnosed IFG from the Singapore National Healthcare Group hospitals and primary care clinics from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. Clinical data were collected over a five-year period from the date of diagnosis. Outcomes of interest were T2DM, AMI and stroke based on first occurrence of the ICD-9 diagnoses from the chronic disease registry. Demographic characteristics, laboratory tests, anthropometric measurements and medical history were adjusted for in the multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Out of 2295 eligible subjects, 552(24.1%) developed at least one of the outcomes. 492(21.4%) developed T2DM, 20(0.9%) developed AMI and 62(2.7%) developed stroke. Predictive factors for development of any of the three outcomes included age 40-49 [Adjusted OR=2.25; 95% CI 1.44-3.51], blood pressure of 140/90mmHg and above [Adjusted OR=1.62, 95% CI 1.26-2.10] and BMI of 27.5kg/m2 or more [Adjusted OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.61-3.41]. Females were more likely to develop T2DM [Adjusted OR=1.43; 95% CI 1.10-1.85] but less likely to develop AMI and/or stroke compared to males [Adjusted OR=0.43; 95% CI 0.24-0.76]. CONCLUSIONS: Development of T2DM/AMI/stroke within the first five years of IFG is significantly high for subjects age 40-49 and those with high BMI. Frequency of cardiovascular risk screening, which is currently once every three years, could be increased.

Projection of prediabetes and diabetes population size in Singapore using a dynamic Markov model.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to forecast the prevalence and number of adult Singapore residents with prediabetes and diabetes in 2035. METHODS: A dynamic Markov model with nine mutually exclusive states was developed based on the clinical course of diabetes using time-dependent rates and probabilities. A 1-year cycle over a 25-year time horizon from 2010 to 2035 was used in the model. With publicly available data and a chronic disease register, the model forecast annual disease burden by simulating transition of cohorts across different health states using prevalence rates, incidence rates, mortality rates, disease transition, disease detection, and complication rates. An aging index was used in the model in anticipation of population aging to minimize risks of underestimating disease burden. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2035, the number of Singapore residents with prediabetes and diabetes is projected to more than double, from 434 685 to 903 596 and from 373 104 to 823 802, respectively. The prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes will rise steadily from 15.5 % to 24.9 % and from 13.3 % to 22.7 %, respectively. By 2035, a further estimate of 733 174 and 100 250 patients with prediabetes and uncomplicated diabetes, respectively, will remain undiagnosed. The prevalence of detected and undetected complications is forecast to rise from 60.0 % in 2010 to 70.2 % by 2035. CONCLUSION: By 2035, the prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes among Singapore residents aged 21+ years is expected to be one in four and one in five, respectively. There is an impetus to adopt more aggressive interventions to contain disease progression.

A study of treatment adherence and quality of life among adults with chronic urticaria in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Chronic urticaria is a common skin condition that causes significant impact on patient's quality of life. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to assess adherence to therapy and quality of life of patients with chronic urticaria. We also aimed to study the relationship of medication adherence and quality of life of patients with chronic urticaria. METHODS: A cross sectional study was conducted with 103 patients from the dermatology clinic of National University Hospital, Singapore. Patients with chronic urticaria were asked to fill out a questionnaire for assessment of adherence to therapy and quality of life. We used the Morisky 8-Item Medication Adherence Scale to categorize adherence as high, medium, low. For assessment of quality of life, we used the validated chronic urticaria quality of life questionnaire (CU-Q2oL) by Bairadani et al. RESULTS: The highest median scores for the items measuring quality of life were interference with sleep and pruritus. We also observed that the majority of patients (71.9%) had low adherence to medical therapy. No difference in adherence was noted in patients on once daily medication or more frequent dosing. There was no significant difference in the quality of life among patients with low and medium adherence to therapy. CONCLUSION: Quality of life of patients with chronic urticaria does not depend on the patients' adherence to medications. Dosing frequency does not affect adherence in our study population. It is also important to recognize the symptoms and issues most affecting quality of life of patients with chronic urticaria, so as to improve overall management.

Direct medical cost of stroke in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Globally, stroke is recognized as one of the main causes of long-term disability, accounting for approximately 5·7 million deaths each year. It is a debilitating and costly chronic condition that consumes about 2-4% of total healthcare expenditure. AIMS: To estimate the direct medical cost associated with stroke in Singapore in 2012 and to determine associated predictors. METHODS: The National Healthcare Group Chronic Disease Management System database was used to identify patients with stroke between the years 2006 and 2012. Estimated stroke-related costs included hospitalizations, accident and emergency room visits, outpatient physician visits, laboratory tests, and medications. RESULTS: A total of 700 patients were randomly selected for the analyses. The mean annual direct medical cost was found to be S$12 473·7, of which 93·6% were accounted for by inpatient services, 4·9% by outpatient services, and 1·5% by A&E services. Independent determinants of greater total costs were stroke types, such as ischemic stroke (P = 0·005), subarachnoid hemorrhage (P < 0·001) and intracerebral haemorrhage (P < 0·001), shorter poststroke period, more than one complications (P = 0·045), and a greater number of comorbidities (P = 0·001). CONCLUSION: There is a considerable economic burden associated with stroke in Singapore. The type of stroke, length of poststroke period, and stroke complications and comorbidities are found to be associated with the total costs. Efforts to reduce inpatient costs and to allocate health resources to focus on the primary prevention of stroke should become a priority.

Direct medical cost of type 2 diabetes in singapore.

Due to the chronic nature of diabetes along with their complications, they have been recognised as a major health issue, which results in significant economic burden. This study aims to estimate the direct medical cost associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Singapore in 2010 and to examine both the relationship between demographic and clinical state variables with the total estimated expenditure. The National Healthcare Group (NHG) Chronic Disease Management System (CDMS) database was used to identify patients with T2DM in the year 2010. DM-attributable costs estimated included hospitalisations, accident and emergency (A&E) room visits, outpatient physician visits, medications, laboratory tests and allied health services. All charges and unit costs were provided by the NHG. A total of 500 patients with DM were identified for the analyses. The mean annual direct medical cost was found to be $2,034, of which 61% was accounted for by inpatient services, 35% by outpatient services, and 4% by A&E services. Independent determinants of total costs were DM treatments such as the use of insulin only (p<0.001) and the combination of both oral medications and insulin (p=0.047) as well as having complications such as cerebrovascular disease (p<0.001), cardiovascular disease (p=0.002), peripheral vascular disease (p=0.001), and nephropathy (p=0.041). In this study, the cost of DM treatments and DM-related complications were found to be strong determinants of costs. This finding suggests an imperative need to address the economic burden associated with diabetes with urgency and to reorganise resources required to improve healthcare costs.