Dynamics of cognitive variability with age and its genetic underpinning in NIHR BioResource Genes and Cognition cohort participants.

A leading explanation for translational failure in neurodegenerative disease is that new drugs are evaluated late in the disease course when clinical features have become irreversible. Here, to address this gap, we cognitively profiled 21,051 people aged 17-85 years as part of the Genes and Cognition cohort within the National Institute for Health and Care Research BioResource across England. We describe the cohort, present cognitive trajectories and show the potential utility. Surprisingly, when studied at scale, the APOE genotype had negligible impact on cognitive performance. Different cognitive domains had distinct genetic architectures, with one indicating brain region-specific activation of microglia and another with glycogen metabolism. Thus, the molecular and cellular mechanisms underpinning cognition are distinct from dementia risk loci, presenting different targets to slow down age-related cognitive decline. Participants can now be recalled stratified by genotype and cognitive phenotype for natural history and interventional studies of neurodegenerative and other disorders.

Bayesian profile regression for clustering analysis involving a longitudinal response and explanatory variables.

The identification of sets of co-regulated genes that share a common function is a key question of modern genomics. Bayesian profile regression is a semi-supervised mixture modelling approach that makes use of a response to guide inference toward relevant clusterings. Previous applications of profile regression have considered univariate continuous, categorical, and count outcomes. In this work, we extend Bayesian profile regression to cases where the outcome is longitudinal (or multivariate continuous) and provide PReMiuMlongi, an updated version of PReMiuM, the R package for profile regression. We consider multivariate normal and Gaussian process regression response models and provide proof of principle applications to four simulation studies. The model is applied on budding yeast data to identify groups of genes co-regulated during the Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle. We identify 4 distinct groups of genes associated with specific patterns of gene expression trajectories, along with the bound transcriptional factors, likely involved in their co-regulation process.

A data-adaptive method for investigating effect heterogeneity with high-dimensional covariates in Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization is a popular method for causal inference with observational data that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables. Similarly to a randomized trial, a standard Mendelian randomization analysis estimates the population-averaged effect of an exposure on an outcome. Dividing the population into subgroups can reveal effect heterogeneity to inform who would most benefit from intervention on the exposure. However, as covariates are measured post-"randomization", naive stratification typically induces collider bias in stratum-specific estimates. METHOD: We extend a previously proposed stratification method (the "doubly-ranked method") to form strata based on a single covariate, and introduce a data-adaptive random forest method to calculate stratum-specific estimates that are robust to collider bias based on a high-dimensional covariate set. We also propose measures based on the Q statistic to assess heterogeneity between stratum-specific estimates (to understand whether estimates are more variable than expected due to chance alone) and variable importance (to identify the key drivers of effect heterogeneity). RESULT: We show that the effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung function is heterogeneous, depending most strongly on hip circumference and weight. While for most individuals, the predicted effect of increasing BMI on lung function is negative, it is positive for some individuals and strongly negative for others. CONCLUSION: Our data-adaptive approach allows for the exploration of effect heterogeneity in the relationship between an exposure and an outcome within a Mendelian randomization framework. This can yield valuable insights into disease aetiology and help identify specific groups of individuals who would derive the greatest benefit from targeted interventions on the exposure.

Impact of penicillin allergy labels on surgical site infections in a large UK cohort of gastrointestinal surgery patients.

Objectives: Studies in the USA, Canada and France have reported higher surgical site infection (SSI) risk in patients with a penicillin allergy label (PAL). Here, we investigate the association between PALs and SSI in the UK, a country with distinct epidemiology of infecting pathogens and range of antimicrobial regimens in routine use. Methods: Electronic health records and national SSI surveillance data were collated for a retrospective cohort of gastrointestinal surgery patients at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to examine the effects of PALs and the use of non-ß-lactam-based prophylaxis on likelihood of SSI, 30 day post-operative mortality, 7 day post-operative acute kidney injury and 60 day post-operative infection/colonization with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria or Clostridioides difficile. Results: Our data comprised 3644 patients and 4085 operations; 461 were undertaken in the presence of PALs (11.3%). SSI was detected after 435/4085 (10.7%) operations. Neither the presence of PALs, nor the use of non-ß-lactam-based prophylaxis were found to be associated with SSI: adjusted OR (aOR) 0.90 (95% CI 0.65-1.25) and 1.20 (0.88-1.62), respectively. PALs were independently associated with increased odds of newly identified MRSA infection/colonization in the 60 days after surgery: aOR 2.71 (95% CI 1.13-6.49). Negative association was observed for newly identified infection/colonization with third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: aOR 0.38 (95% CI 0.16-0.89). Conclusions: No evidence was found for an association between PALs and the likelihood of SSI in this large UK cohort, suggesting significant international variation in the impact of PALs on surgical patients.

Characterization of missing data patterns and mechanisms in longitudinal composite outcome trial in rheumatoid arthritis.

Background: Composite measures, like the Disease Activity Score for 28 joints (DAS28), are key primary outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) trials. DAS28 combines four different components in a continuous measure. When one or more of these components are missing the overall composite score is also missing at intermediate or trial endpoint assessments. Objectives: This study examined missing data patterns and mechanisms in a longitudinal RA trial to evaluate how best to handle missingness when analysing composite outcomes. Design: The Tumour-Necrosis-Factor Inhibitors against Combination Intensive Therapy (TACIT) trial was an open label, pragmatic randomized multicentre two arm non-inferiority study. Patients were followed up for 12 months, with monthly measurement of the composite outcome and its components. Active RA patients were randomized to conventional disease modifying drugs (cDMARDs) or Tumour Necrosis Factor-α inhibitors (TNFis). Methods: The TACIT trial was used to explore the extent of missing data in the composite outcome, DAS28. Patterns of missing data in components and the composite outcome were examined graphically. Longitudinal multivariable logistic regression analysis assessed missing data mechanisms during follow-up. Results: Two hundred and five patients were randomized: at 12 months 59/205 (29%) had unobserved composite outcome and 146/205 (71%) had an observed DAS28 outcome; however, 34/146 had one or more intermediate assessments missing. We observed mixed missing data patterns, especially for the missing composite outcome due to one component missing rather than patient not attending thier visit. Age and gender predicted missingness components, providing strong evidence the missing observations were unlikely to be Missing Completely at Random (MCAR). Conclusion: Researchers should undertake detailed evaluations of missing data patterns and mechanisms at the final and intermediate time points, whether or not the outcome variable is a composite outcome. In addition, the impact on treatment estimates in patients who only provide data at milestone assessments need to be assessed. Trial Registration ISRCTN Number: 37438295.

A comparison of two frameworks for multi-state modelling, applied to outcomes after hospital admissions with COVID-19.

We compare two multi-state modelling frameworks that can be used to represent dates of events following hospital admission for people infected during an epidemic. The methods are applied to data from people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, to estimate the probability of admission to intensive care unit, the probability of death in hospital for patients before and after intensive care unit admission, the lengths of stay in hospital, and how all these vary with age and gender. One modelling framework is based on defining transition-specific hazard functions for competing risks. A less commonly used framework defines partially-latent subpopulations who will experience each subsequent event, and uses a mixture model to estimate the probability that an individual will experience each event, and the distribution of the time to the event given that it occurs. We compare the advantages and disadvantages of these two frameworks, in the context of the COVID-19 example. The issues include the interpretation of the model parameters, the computational efficiency of estimating the quantities of interest, implementation in software and assessing goodness of fit. In the example, we find that some groups appear to be at very low risk of some events, in particular intensive care unit admission, and these are best represented by using 'cure-rate' models to define transition-specific hazards. We provide general-purpose software to implement all the models we describe in the flexsurv R package, which allows arbitrarily flexible distributions to be used to represent the cause-specific hazards or times to events.

Neural Survival Clustering: Non-parametric mixture of neural networks for survival clustering.

Survival analysis involves the modelling of the times to event. Proposed neural network approaches maximise the predictive performance of traditional survival models at the cost of their interpretability. This impairs their applicability in high stake domains such as medicine. Providing insights into the survival distributions would tackle this issue and advance the medical understanding of diseases. This paper approaches survival analysis as a mixture of neural baselines whereby different baseline cumulative hazard functions are modelled using positive and monotone neural networks. The efficiency of the solution is demonstrated on three datasets while enabling the discovery of new survival phenotypes.

Imputation Strategies Under Clinical Presence: Impact on Algorithmic Fairness.

Biases have marked medical history, leading to unequal care affecting marginalised groups. The patterns of missingness in observational data often reflect these group discrepancies, but the algorithmic fairness implications of group-specific missingness are not well understood. Despite its potential impact, imputation is too often an overlooked preprocessing step. When explicitly considered, attention is placed on overall performance, ignoring how this preprocessing can reinforce groupspecific inequities. Our work questions this choice by studying how imputation affects downstream algorithmic fairness. First, we provide a structured view of the relationship between clinical presence mechanisms and groupspecific missingness patterns. Then, through simulations and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that the imputation choice influences marginalised group performance and that no imputation strategy consistently reduces disparities. Importantly, our results show that current practices may endanger health equity as similarly performing imputation strategies at the population level can affect marginalised groups differently. Finally, we propose recommendations for mitigating inequities that may stem from a neglected step of the machine learning pipeline.

Development and validation of a dynamic 48-hour in-hospital mortality risk stratification for COVID-19 in a UK teaching hospital: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a disease stratification model for COVID-19 that updates according to changes in a patient's condition while in hospital to facilitate patient management and resource allocation. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort study, we adopted a landmarking approach to dynamic prediction of all-cause in-hospital mortality over the next 48 hours. We accounted for informative predictor missingness and selected predictors using penalised regression. SETTING: All data used in this study were obtained from a single UK teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: We developed the model using 473 consecutive patients with COVID-19 presenting to a UK hospital between 1 March 2020 and 12 September 2020; and temporally validated using data on 1119 patients presenting between 13 September 2020 and 17 March 2021. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is all-cause in-hospital mortality within 48 hours of the prediction time. We accounted for the competing risks of discharge from hospital alive and transfer to a tertiary intensive care unit for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. RESULTS: Our final model includes age, Clinical Frailty Scale score, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation/fractional inspired oxygen ratio, white cell count, presence of acidosis (pH <7.35) and interleukin-6. Internal validation achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.93) and temporal validation gave an AUROC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Our model incorporates both static risk factors (eg, age) and evolving clinical and laboratory data, to provide a dynamic risk prediction model that adapts to both sudden and gradual changes in an individual patient's clinical condition. On successful external validation, the model has the potential to be a powerful clinical risk assessment tool. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered as 'researchregistry5464' on the Research Registry (www.researchregistry.com).

Baseline predictors of remission, pain and fatigue in rheumatoid arthritis: the TITRATE trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials show intensive treatment to induce remission is effective in patients with highly active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The TITRATE trial showed that the benefits of intensive treatment also extend to moderately active RA. However, many patients failed to achieve remission or show improvements in pain and fatigue. We investigated whether baseline predictors could identify treatment non-responders. METHODS: The impact of obesity, depression, anxiety and illness perception on RA outcomes, including disease activity, remission, pain and fatigue were determined using a pre-planned secondary analysis of the TITRATE trial data. RESULTS: Body mass index was associated with disease activity levels and remission: obese patients had a higher overall disease activity and fewer obese patients achieved remission. Intensive management was not associated with increased remission in these patients. Obesity was also associated with increased overall pain and fatigue. Anxiety, depression and health perceptions had no discernible impact on disease activity but were associated with high levels of pain and fatigue. There was a strong association between anxiety and high pain scores; and between depression and high fatigue scores; and health perception was strongly related to both. None of the predictors had an important impact on pain and fatigue reduction in cross-sectional analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Disease activity is higher in obese patients and they have fewer remissions over 12 months. Anxiety, depression and health perceptions were associated with higher pain and fatigue scores. Intensive management strategies need to account for these baseline features as they impact significantly on clinical and psychological outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 70160382 ; date registered 16 January 2014.

In-depth phenotyping for clinical stratification of Gaucher disease.

BACKGROUND: The Gaucher Investigative Therapy Evaluation is a national clinical cohort of 250 patients aged 5-87 years with Gaucher disease in the United Kingdom-an ultra-rare genetic disorder. To inform clinical decision-making and improve pathophysiological understanding, we characterized the course of Gaucher disease and explored the influence of costly innovative medication and other interventions. Retrospective and prospective clinical, laboratory and radiological information including molecular analysis of the GBA1 gene and comprising > 2500 variables were collected systematically into a relational database with banking of collated biological samples in a central bioresource. Data for deep phenotyping and life-quality evaluation, including skeletal, visceral, haematological and neurological manifestations were recorded for a median of 17.3 years; the skeletal and neurological manifestations are the main focus of this study. RESULTS: At baseline, 223 of the 250 patients were classified as type 1 Gaucher disease. Skeletal manifestations occurred in most patients in the cohort (131 of 201 specifically reported bone pain). Symptomatic osteonecrosis and fragility fractures occurred respectively in 76 and 37 of all 250 patients and the first osseous events occurred significantly earlier in those with neuronopathic disease. Intensive phenotyping in a subgroup of 40 patients originally considered to have only systemic features, revealed neurological involvement in 18: two had Parkinson disease and 16 had clinical signs compatible with neuronopathic Gaucher disease-indicating a greater than expected prevalence of neurological features. Analysis of longitudinal real-world data enabled Gaucher disease to be stratified with respect to advanced therapies and splenectomy. Splenectomy was associated with an increased hazard of fragility fractures, in addition to osteonecrosis and orthopaedic surgery; there were marked gender differences in fracture risk over time since splenectomy. Skeletal disease was a heavy burden of illness, especially where access to specific therapy was delayed and in patients requiring orthopaedic surgery. CONCLUSION: Gaucher disease has been explored using real-world data obtained in an era of therapeutic transformation. Introduction of advanced therapies and repeated longitudinal measures enabled this heterogeneous condition to be stratified into obvious clinical endotypes. The study reveals diverse and changing phenotypic manifestations with systemic, skeletal and neurological disease as inter-related sources of disability.

Disease Modelling of Cognitive Outcomes and Biomarkers in the European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Longitudinal Cohort.

A key challenge for the secondary prevention of Alzheimer's dementia is the need to identify individuals early on in the disease process through sensitive cognitive tests and biomarkers. The European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia (EPAD) consortium recruited participants into a longitudinal cohort study with the aim of building a readiness cohort for a proof-of-concept clinical trial and also to generate a rich longitudinal data-set for disease modelling. Data have been collected on a wide range of measurements including cognitive outcomes, neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, genetics and other clinical and environmental risk factors, and are available for 1,828 eligible participants at baseline, 1,567 at 6 months, 1,188 at one-year follow-up, 383 at 2 years, and 89 participants at three-year follow-up visit. We novelly apply state-of-the-art longitudinal modelling and risk stratification approaches to these data in order to characterise disease progression and biological heterogeneity within the cohort. Specifically, we use longitudinal class-specific mixed effects models to characterise the different clinical disease trajectories and a semi-supervised Bayesian clustering approach to explore whether participants can be stratified into homogeneous subgroups that have different patterns of cognitive functioning evolution, while also having subgroup-specific profiles in terms of baseline biomarkers and longitudinal rate of change in biomarkers.

Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in the risk of mortality per 7-week period (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·65-0·71]). The higher proportions of patients with severe disease and comorbidities earlier in the first wave (March and April) than in June and July accounted for 10·2% of this reduction. The use of respiratory support changed during the first wave, with gradually increased use of non-invasive ventilation over the first wave. Changes in respiratory support and use of steroids accounted for 22·2%, OR 0·95 (0·94-0·95) of the reduction in in-hospital mortality. INTERPRETATION: The reduction in in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 during the first wave in the UK was partly accounted for by changes in the case-mix and illness severity. A significant reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with differences in respiratory support and critical care use, which could partly reflect accrual of clinical knowledge. The remaining improvement in in-hospital mortality is not explained by these factors, and could be associated with changes in community behaviour, inoculum dose, and hospital capacity strain. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council.

Informative presence and observation in routine health data: A review of methodology for clinical risk prediction.

OBJECTIVE: Informative presence (IP) is the phenomenon whereby the presence or absence of patient data is potentially informative with respect to their health condition, with informative observation (IO) being the longitudinal equivalent. These phenomena predominantly exist within routinely collected healthcare data, in which data collection is driven by the clinical requirements of patients and clinicians. The extent to which IP and IO are considered when using such data to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) is unknown, as is the existing methodology aiming at handling these issues. This review aims to synthesize such existing methodology, thereby helping identify an agenda for future methodological work. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted by 2 independent reviewers using prespecified keywords. RESULTS: Thirty-six articles were included. We categorized the methods presented within as derived predictors (including some representation of the measurement process as a predictor in the model), modeling under IP, and latent structures. Including missing indicators or summary measures as predictors is the most commonly presented approach amongst the included studies (24 of 36 articles). DISCUSSION: This is the first review to collate the literature in this area under a prediction framework. A considerable body relevant of literature exists, and we present ways in which the described methods could be developed further. Guidance is required for specifying the conditions under which each method should be used to enable applied prediction modelers to use these methods. CONCLUSIONS: A growing recognition of IP and IO exists within the literature, and methodology is increasingly becoming available to leverage these phenomena for prediction purposes. IP and IO should be approached differently in a prediction context than when the primary goal is explanation. The work included in this review has demonstrated theoretical and empirical benefits of incorporating IP and IO, and therefore we recommend that applied health researchers consider incorporating these methods in their work.

The clinical effectiveness of intensive management in moderate established rheumatoid arthritis: The titrate trial.

OBJECTIVES: Many trials have shown that intensive management is effective in patients with early active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). But its benefits are unproven for the large number of RA patients seen in routine care who have established, moderately active RA and are already taking conventional synthetic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs). The TITRATE trial studied whether these patients also benefit from intensive management and, in particular, achieve more remissions. METHODS: A 12-month multicentre individually randomised trial compared standard care with monthly intensive management appointments which was delivered by specially trained healthcare professionals and incorporated monthly clinical assessments, medication titration and psychosocial support. The primary outcome was 12-month remission assessed using the Disease Activity Score for 28 joints using ESR (DAS28-ESR). Secondary outcomes included fatigue, disability, harms and healthcare costs. Intention-to-treat multivariable logistic- and linear regression analyses compared treatment arms with multiple imputation used for missing data. RESULTS: 459 patients were screened and 335 were randomised (168 intensive management; 167 standard care); 303 (90%) patients provided 12-month outcomes. Intensive management increased DAS28-ESR 12-month remissions compared to standard care (32% vs 18%, p = 0.004). Intensive management also significantly increased remissions using a range of alternative remission criteria and increased patients with DAS28-ESR low disease activity scores. (48% vs 32%, p = 0.005). In addition it substantially reduced fatigue (mean difference -18; 95% CI: -24, -11, p<0.001). There was no evidence that serious adverse events (intensive management =15 vs standard care =11) or other adverse events (114 vs 151) significantly increase with intensive management. INTERPRETATION: The trial shows that intensive management incorporating psychosocial support delivered by specially trained healthcare professions is effective in moderately active established RA. More patients achieve remissions, there were greater improvements in fatigue, and there were no more harms.

Optimal individualized decision rules from a multi-arm trial: A comparison of methods and an application to tailoring inter-donation intervals among blood donors in the UK.

There is a growing interest in precision medicine where individual heterogeneity is incorporated into decision-making and treatments are tailored to individuals to provide better healthcare. One important aspect of precision medicine is the estimation of the optimal individualized treatment rule (ITR) that optimizes the expected outcome. Most methods developed for this purpose are restricted to the setting with two treatments, while clinical studies with more than two treatments are common in practice. In this work, we summarize methods to estimate the optimal ITR in the multi-arm setting and compare their performance in large-scale clinical trials via simulation studies. We then illustrate their utilities with a case study using the data from the INTERVAL trial, which randomly assigned over 20,000 male blood donors from England to one of the three inter-donation intervals (12-week, 10-week, and eight-week) over two years. We estimate the optimal individualized donation strategies under three different objectives. Our findings are fairly consistent across five different approaches that are applied: when we target the maximization of the total units of blood collected, almost all donors are assigned to the eight-week inter-donation interval, whereas if we aim at minimizing the low hemoglobin deferral rates, almost all donors are assigned to donate every 12 weeks. However, when the goal is to maximize the utility score that "discounts" the total units of blood collected by the incidences of low hemoglobin deferrals, we observe some heterogeneity in the optimal inter-donation interval across donors and the optimal donor assignment strategy is highly dependent on the trade-off parameter in the utility function.

Prescreening for European Prevention of Alzheimer Dementia (EPAD) trial-ready cohort: impact of AD risk factors and recruitment settings.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment is often a bottleneck in secondary prevention trials in Alzheimer disease (AD). Furthermore, screen-failure rates in these trials are typically high due to relatively low prevalence of AD pathology in individuals without dementia, especially among cognitively unimpaired. Prescreening on AD risk factors may facilitate recruitment, but the efficiency will depend on how these factors link to participation rates and AD pathology. We investigated whether common AD-related factors predict trial-ready cohort participation and amyloid status across different prescreen settings. METHODS: We monitored the prescreening in four cohorts linked to the European Prevention of Alzheimer Dementia (EPAD) Registry (n = 16,877; mean ± SD age = 64 ± 8 years). These included a clinical cohort, a research in-person cohort, a research online cohort, and a population-based cohort. Individuals were asked to participate in the EPAD longitudinal cohort study (EPAD-LCS), which serves as a trial-ready cohort for secondary prevention trials. Amyloid positivity was measured in cerebrospinal fluid as part of the EPAD-LCS assessment. We calculated participation rates and numbers needed to prescreen (NNPS) per participant that was amyloid-positive. We tested if age, sex, education level, APOE status, family history for dementia, memory complaints or memory scores, previously collected in these cohorts, could predict participation and amyloid status. RESULTS: A total of 2595 participants were contacted for participation in the EPAD-LCS. Participation rates varied by setting between 3 and 59%. The NNPS were 6.9 (clinical cohort), 7.5 (research in-person cohort), 8.4 (research online cohort), and 88.5 (population-based cohort). Participation in the EPAD-LCS (n = 413 (16%)) was associated with lower age (odds ratio (OR) age = 0.97 [0.95-0.99]), high education (OR = 1.64 [1.23-2.17]), male sex (OR = 1.56 [1.19-2.04]), and positive family history of dementia (OR = 1.66 [1.19-2.31]). Among participants in the EPAD-LCS, amyloid positivity (33%) was associated with higher age (OR = 1.06 [1.02-1.10]) and APOE ɛ4 allele carriership (OR = 2.99 [1.81-4.94]). These results were similar across prescreen settings. CONCLUSIONS: Numbers needed to prescreen varied greatly between settings. Understanding how common AD risk factors link to study participation and amyloid positivity is informative for recruitment strategy of studies on secondary prevention of AD.

Efficient Real-Time Monitoring of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic: How Feasible?

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially biased and originating from multiple sources. This seriously challenges the capacity for real-time monitoring. Here, we assess the feasibility of real-time inference based on such data by constructing an analytic tool combining an age-stratified SEIR transmission model with various observation models describing the data generation mechanisms. As batches of data become available, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is developed to synthesise multiple imperfect data streams, iterate epidemic inferences and assess model adequacy amidst a rapidly evolving epidemic environment, substantially reducing computation time in comparison to standard MCMC, to ensure timely delivery of real-time epidemic assessments. In application to simulated data designed to mimic the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic, SMC is shown to have additional benefits in terms of assessing predictive performance and coping with parameter nonidentifiability.

Deep and Frequent Phenotyping study protocol: an observational study in prodromal Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Recent failures of potential novel therapeutics for Alzheimer's disease (AD) have prompted a drive towards clinical studies in prodromal or preclinical states. However, carrying out clinical trials in early disease stages is extremely challenging-a key reason being the unfeasibility of using classical outcome measures of dementia trials (eg, conversion to dementia) and the lack of validated surrogate measures so early in the disease process. The Deep and Frequent Phenotyping (DFP) study aims to resolve this issue by identifying a set of markers acting as indicators of disease progression in the prodromal phase of disease that could be used as indicative outcome measures in proof-of-concept trials. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The DFP study is a repeated measures observational study where participants will be recruited through existing parent cohorts, research interested lists/databases, advertisements and memory clinics. Repeated measures of both established (cognition, positron emission tomography (PET) imaging or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of pathology, structural MRI markers of neurodegeneration) and experimental modalities (functional MRI, magnetoencephalography and/or electroencephalography, gait measurement, ophthalmological and continuous smartphone-based cognitive and other assessments together with experimental CSF, blood, tear and saliva biomarkers) will be performed. We will be recruiting male and female participants aged >60 years with prodromal AD, defined as absence of dementia but with evidence of cognitive impairment together with AD pathology as assessed using PET imaging or CSF biomarkers. Control participants without evidence of AD pathology will be included at a 1:4 ratio. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study gained favourable ethical opinion from the South Central-Oxford B NHS Research Ethics Committee (REC reference 17/SC/0315; approved on 18 August 2017; amendment 13 February 2018). Data will be shared with the scientific community no more than 1 year following completion of study and data assembly.

European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Longitudinal Cohort Study (EPAD LCS): study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia (EPAD) project is funded initially by the Innovative Medicines Initiative and has been established to overcome the major hurdles hampering drug development for secondary prevention of Alzheimer's dementia, by conducting the EPAD Longitudinal Cohort Study (LCS) in alignment with the Bayesian adaptive designed EPAD Proof-of-Concept (PoC) trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: EPAD LCS is an ongoing prospective, multicentre, pan-European longitudinal cohort study. Participants are recruited mainly from existing parent cohorts across Europe to form a 'probability-spectrum' population covering the entire continuum of anticipated probability for Alzheimer's dementia development. The primary objective of the EPAD LCS is to be a readiness cohort for the EPAD PoC trial though a second major objective is to generate a comprehensive and large data set for disease modelling of preclinical and prodromal Alzheimer's disease. This characterisation of cognitive, biomarker and risk factor (genetic and environmental) status of research participants over time will provide the necessary well-phenotyped population for developing accurate longitudinal models for Alzheimer's disease covering the entire disease course and concurrently create a pool of highly characterised individuals for the EPAD PoC trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received the relevant approvals from numerous Institutional Review Boards across Europe. Findings will be disseminated to several target audiences, including the scientific community, research participants, patient community, general public, industry, regulatory authorities and policy-makers. Regular and coordinated releases of EPAD LCS data will be made available for analysis to help researchers improve their understanding of early Alzheimer's disease stages and facilitate collaborations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02804789.