The most places at risk surrounding the COVID-19 treatment hospitals in an urban environment- case study: Tehran city.

Investigations on the spatial patterns of COVID-19 spreading indicate the possibility of the virus transmission by moving infected people in an urban area. Hospitals are the most susceptible locations due to the COVID-19 contaminations in metropolises. This paper aims to find the riskiest places surrounding the hospitals using an MLP-ANN. The main contribution is discovering the influence zone of COVID-19 treatment hospitals and the main spatial factors around them that increase the prevalence of COVID-19. The innovation of this paper is to find the most relevant spatial factors regarding the distance from central hospitals modeling the risk level of the study area. Therefore, eight hospitals with two service areas for each of them are computed with [0-500] and [500-1000] meters distance. Besides, five spatial factors have been considered, consist of the location of patients' financial transactions, the distance of streets from hospitals, the distance of highways from hospitals, the distance of the non-residential land use from the hospitals, and the hospital patient number. The implementation results revealed a meaningful relation between the distance from the hospitals and patient density. The RMSE and R measures are 0.00734 and 0.94635 for [0-500 m] while these quantities are 0.054088 and 0.902725 for [500-1000 m] respectively. These values indicate the role of distance to central hospitals for COVID-19 treatment. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the number of patients' transactions and the distance of the non-residential land use from the hospitals are two dominant factors for virus propagation. The results help urban managers to begin preventative strategies to decrease the community incidence rate in high-risk places.

A description of spatial-temporal patterns of the novel COVID-19 outbreak in the neighbourhoods' scale in Tehran, Iran.

Background: Analyzing and monitoring the spatial-temporal patterns of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic can assist local authorities and researchers in detecting disease outbreaks in the early stages. Because of different socioeconomic profiles in Tehran's areas, we will provide a clear picture of the pandemic distribution in Tehran's neighbourhoods during the first months of its spread from February to July 2020, employing a spatial-temporal analysis applying the geographical information system (GIS). Disease rates were estimated by location during the 5 months, and hot spots and cold spots were highlighted. Methods: This study was performed using the COVID-19 incident cases and deaths recorded in the Medical Care Monitoring Centre from February 20, to July 20, 2020. The local Getis-Ord Gi* method was applied to identify the hotspots where the infectious disease distribution had significantly clustered spatially. A statistical analysis for incidence and mortality rates and hot spots was conducted using ArcGIS 10.7 software. Results: The addresses of 43,000 Tehrani patients (15,514 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 27,486 diagnosed as probable cases) were changed in its Geo-codes in the GIS. The highest incidence rate from February to July 2020 was 48 per 10,000 and the highest 5-month incidence rate belonged to central and eastern neighbourhoods. According to the Cumulative Population density of patients, the higher number is estimated by more than 2500 people in the area; however, the lower number is highlighted by about 500 people in the neighborhood. Also, the results from the local Getis-Ord Gi* method indicate that COVID-19 has formed a hotspot in the eastern, southeast, and central districts in Tehran since February. We also observed a death rate hot spot in eastern areas. Conclusion: Because of the spread of COVID-19 disease throughout Tehran's neighborhoods with different socioeconomic status, it seems essential to pay attention to health behaviors to prevent the next waves of the disease. The findings suggest that disease distribution has formed a hot spot in Tehran's eastern and central regions.

Quantitative assessment of Urmia Lake water using spaceborne multisensor data and 3D modeling.

Preserving aquatic ecosystems and water resources management is crucial in arid and semi-arid regions for anthropogenic reasons and climate change. In recent decades, the water level of the largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has decreased sharply, which has become a major environmental concern in Iran and the region. The efforts to revive the lake concerns the amount of water required for restoration. This study monitored and assessed Urmia Lake status over a period of 30 years (1984 to 2014) using remotely sensed data. A novel method is proposed that generates a lakebed digital elevation model (LBDEM) for Urmia Lake based on time series images from Landsat satellites, water level field measurements, remote sensing techniques, GIS, and 3D modeling. The volume of water required to restore the Lake water level to that of previous years and the ecological water level was calculated based on LBDEM. The results indicate a marked change in the area and volume of the lake from its maximum water level in 1998 to its minimum level in 2014. During this period, 86% of the lake became a salt desert and the volume of the lake water in 2013 was just 0.83% of the 1998 volume. The volume of water required to restore Urmia Lake from benchmark status (in 2014) to ecological water level (1274.10 m) is 12.546 Bm3, excluding evaporation. The results and the proposed method can be used by national and international environmental organizations to monitor and assess the status of Urmia Lake and support them in decision-making.

An application of MC-SDSS for water supply management during a drought crisis.

Climate change influences many countries' rainfall patterns and temperatures. In Iran, population growth has increased water demands. Tabriz is the capital of East Azerbaijan province, in northwestern Iran. A large proportion of the water required for this city is supplied from dams; thus, it is important to find alternatives to supply water for this city, which is the largest industrial city in northwestern Iran. In this paper, the groundwater quality was assessed using 70 wells in Tabriz Township. This work seeks to define the spatial distribution of groundwater quality parameters such as chloride, electrical conductivity (EC), pH, hardness, and sulfate using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistics; map groundwater quality for drinking purposes employing multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM), such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, in the study area; and develop an Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for managing a water crisis in the region. The map produced by the AHP is more accurate than the map produced using fuzzy logic because in the AHP, priorities were assigned to each parameter based on the weights given by water quality experts. The final map indicates that the groundwater quality increases from the north to the south and from the west to the east within the study area. During critical conditions, the groundwater quality maps and the presented SDSS core can be utilized by East Azerbaijan Regional Water Company to develop an SDSS to drill new wells or to select existing wells to supply drinking water to Tabriz City.