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1.
Hepatology ; 2024 Apr 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38607809

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores ( p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/ .

2.
JHEP Rep ; 5(8): 100727, 2023 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37456675

RESUMO

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

3.
Ann Hepatol ; 25: 100350, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33864948

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Viral infections have been described to increase the risk of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on outcome of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and to compare the performance of different prognostic models for predicting mortality. PATIENTS: We performed a prospective cohort study including 2211 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from April 15, 2020 through October 1, 2020 in 38 Hospitals from 11 Latin American countries. We registered clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with and without cirrhosis. All patients were followed until discharge or death. We evaluated the prognostic performance of different scoring systems to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis using ROC curves. RESULTS: Overall, 4.6% (CI 3.7-5.6) subjects had cirrhosis (n = 96). Baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class was assessed: CTP-A (23%), CTP-B (45%) and CTP-C (32%); median MELD-Na score was 19 (IQR 14-25). Mortality was 47% in patients with cirrhosis and 16% in patients without cirrhosis (P < .0001). Cirrhosis was independently associated with death [OR 3.1 (CI 1.9-4.8); P < .0001], adjusted by age, gender, and body mass index >30. The areas under the ROC curves for performance evaluation in predicting 28-days mortality for Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C), North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD), CTP score and MELD-Na were 0.85, 0.75, 0.69, 0.67; respectively (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with elevated mortality in patients with cirrhosis. CLIF-C had better performance in predicting mortality than NACSELD, CTP and MELD-Na in patients with cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Clinicaltrials.gov:NCT04358380.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Índice de Massa Corporal , Comorbidade , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , América do Sul/epidemiologia , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências
4.
Ann Hepatol ; 21: 100298, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33359234

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVES: The independent effect of liver biochemistries as a prognostic factor in patients with COVID-19 has not been completely addressed. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of abnormal liver tests on admission of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. MATERIALS & METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study including 1611 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from April 15, 2020 through July 31, 2020 in 38 different Hospitals from 11 Latin American countries. We registered clinical and laboratory parameters, including liver function tests, on admission and during hospitalization. All patients were followed until discharge or death. We fit multivariable logistic regression models, further post-estimation effect through margins and inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: Overall, 57.8% of the patients were male with a mean age of 52.3 years, 8.5% had chronic liver disease and 3.4% had cirrhosis. Abnormal liver tests on admission were present on 45.2% (CI 42.7-47.7) of the cohort (n = 726). Overall, 15.1% (CI 13.4-16.9) of patients died (n = 244). Patients with abnormal liver tests on admission presented higher mortality 18.7% (CI 15.9-21.7), compared to those with normal liver biochemistries 12.2% (CI 10.1-14.6); P < .0001). After excluding patients with history of chronic liver disease, abnormal liver tests on admission were independently associated with death [OR 1.5 (CI 1.1-2.0); P = 0.01], and severe COVID-19 (2.6 [2.0-3.3], P < .0001), both adjusted by age, gender, diabetes, pneumonia and body mass index >30. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of abnormal liver tests on admission is independently associated with mortality and severe COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection and may be used as surrogate marker of inflammation. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT04358380.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hepatopatias/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Comorbidade , Feminino , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Hepatopatias/diagnóstico , Testes de Função Hepática , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco
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