Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. METHODS: We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. FINDINGS: We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. INTERPRETATION: We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. FUNDING: NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

Radiotherapy Plus Cisplatin With or Without Lapatinib for Non-Human Papillomavirus Head and Neck Carcinoma: A Phase 2 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Patients with locally advanced non-human papillomavirus (HPV) head and neck cancer (HNC) carry an unfavorable prognosis. Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with cisplatin or anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibody improves overall survival (OS) of patients with stage III to IV HNC, and preclinical data suggest that a small-molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitor dual EGFR and ERBB2 (formerly HER2 or HER2/neu) inhibitor may be more effective than anti-EGFR antibody therapy in HNC. Objective: To examine whether adding lapatinib, a dual EGFR and HER2 inhibitor, to radiation plus cisplatin for frontline therapy of stage III to IV non-HPV HNC improves progression-free survival (PFS). Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, phase 2, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial enrolled 142 patients with stage III to IV carcinoma of the oropharynx (p16 negative), larynx, and hypopharynx with a Zubrod performance status of 0 to 1 who met predefined blood chemistry criteria from October 18, 2012, to April 18, 2017 (median follow-up, 4.1 years). Data analysis was performed from December 1, 2020, to December 4, 2020. Intervention: Patients were randomized (1:1) to 70 Gy (6 weeks) plus 2 cycles of cisplatin (every 3 weeks) plus either 1500 mg per day of lapatinib (CRT plus lapatinib) or placebo (CRT plus placebo). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was PFS, with 69 events required. Progression-free survival rates between arms for all randomized patients were compared by 1-sided log-rank test. Secondary end points included OS. Results: Of the 142 patients enrolled, 127 (median [IQR] age, 58 [53-63] years; 98 [77.2%] male) were randomized; 63 to CRT plus lapatinib and 64 to CRT plus placebo. Final analysis did not suggest improvement in PFS (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.56-1.46; P = .34) or OS (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.61-1.86; P = .58) with the addition of lapatinib. There were no significant differences in grade 3 to 4 acute adverse event rates (83.3% [95% CI, 73.9%-92.8%] with CRT plus lapatinib vs 79.7% [95% CI, 69.4%-89.9%] with CRT plus placebo; P = .64) or late adverse event rates (44.4% [95% CI, 30.2%-57.8%] with CRT plus lapatinib vs 40.8% [95% CI, 27.1%-54.6%] with CRT plus placebo; P = .84). Conclusion and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, dual EGFR-ERBB2 inhibition with lapatinib did not appear to enhance the benefit of CRT. Although the results of this trial indicate that accrual to a non-HPV HNC-specific trial is feasible, new strategies must be investigated to improve the outcome for this population with a poor prognosis. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01711658.

Long-term Outcomes of Bevacizumab and Chemoradiation for Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial.

Importance: The long-term outcomes associated with adding bevacizumab, a vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitor, to standard chemoradiation have continued to be favorable for a group of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Objective: To assess long-term toxic effects and clinical outcomes associated with chemotherapy, radiation therapy (RT), and bevacizumab for NPC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This single-arm phase II nonrandomized controlled trial was conducted by the National Cancer Trials Network group and NRG Oncology (formerly Radiation Therapy Oncology Group), with accrual from December 13, 2006, to February 5, 2009, and data analysis from June 26 to July 1, 2019. The study was conducted at 19 cancer centers with a median (IQR) follow-up of 9.0 (7.7-9.3) years. Included patients were adults (aged ≥18 years) with NPC that was World Health Organization (WHO) histologic grade I to IIb or III, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage IIB or greater, and with or without lymph node involvement. Interventions: Patients received 3 cycles of bevacizumab (15 mg/kg) concurrently with standard cisplatin (100 mg/m2) and RT (69.96 Gy) followed by 3 cycles of adjuvant bevacizumab (15 mg/kg) given concurrently with cisplatin (80 mg/m2) and fluorouracil (1000 mg/m2/d). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was grade 4 hemorrhage or grade 5 adverse events in the first year. Secondary end points were locoregional progression-free (LRPF) interval, distant metastasis-free (DMF) interval, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and other adverse events. Long-term toxic effects and clinical outcomes were reported due to the limited follow-up in the initial report for this trial and the importance of long-term outcomes when combining bevacizumab with chemoradiation. Results: Among 46 patients with NPC who were enrolled, 44 patients were analyzed (29 males [65.9%]; 23 Asian [52.3%], 2 Black [4.5%], and 16 White [36.4%]; 38 not Hispanic [86.4%]; median [IQR] age, 48.5 [39.0-56.0] years). There were 33 patients with a Zubrod performance status of 0, indicating that they were fully functional and asymptomatic (75.0%); 32 patients with a WHO histologic grade of IIb or III (72.7%); and 39 patients with stage III or IVB disease (88.6%). Among analyzed patients, 42 individuals received radiation therapy of 69.96 Gy or greater (95.5%; dose range, 65.72-70.00 Gy); 30 patients received 3 cycles of cisplatin (68.2%) with RT, and 31 patients received 3 cycles of bevacizumab with RT (70.5%); this was followed by 3 cycles of adjuvant cisplatin in 21 patients (47.7%), fluorouracil in 24 patients (54.5%), and bevacizumab in 23 patients (52.3%). No grade 4 hemorrhage or grade 5 AEs were reported in the first year or thereafter. Late grade 3 AEs occurred in 16 patients (36.4%), including 7 patients with dysphagia (15.9%), 6 patients with hearing impairment (13.6%), and 2 patients with dry mouth (4.5%). The 1- and 5-year rates of feeding tube use were 5 of 41 patients (12.2%) and 0 of 27 patients, respectively. There were 19 patients (43.2%) who progressed or died without disease progression (6 patients with locoregional progression [13.6%], 8 patients with distant progression [18.2%], and 5 patients who died without progression [11.4%]). The 5- and 7-year rates were 79.5% (95% CI, 67.6%-91.5%) and 69.7% (95% CI, 55.9%-83.5%) for OS, 61.2% (95% CI, 46.8%-75.6%) and 56.3% (95% CI, 41.5%-71.1%) for PFS, 74.9% (95% CI, 61.4%-86.6%) and 72.3% (95% CI, 58.4%-84.7%) for LRPF interval, and 79.5% (95% CI,66.4%-90.0%) for both times for DMF interval. Among 13 patients who died, death was due to disease in 8 patients (61.5%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this nonrandomized controlled trial, no grade 4 hemorrhage or grade 5 AEs were reported in the first year or thereafter among patients with NPC receiving bevacizumab combined with chemoradiation. The rate of distant metastasis was low although 89% of patients had stage III to IVB disease, suggesting that further investigation may be warranted. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00408694.

Pathologic Complete Response and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Localized Soft Tissue Sarcoma Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy or Radiotherapy: The NRG/RTOG 9514 and 0630 Nonrandomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Pathologic complete response (pCR) may be associated with prognosis in patients with soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Objective: We sought to determine the prognostic significance of pCR on survival outcomes in STS for patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CT-RT) (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group [RTOG] 9514) or preoperative image-guided radiotherapy alone (RT, RTOG 0630) and provide a long-term update of RTOG 0630. Design, Setting, and Participants: RTOG has completed 2 multi-institutional, nonrandomized phase 2 clinical trials for patients with localized STS. One hundred forty-three eligible patients from RTOG 0630 (n = 79) and RTOG 9514 (n = 64) were included in this ancillary analysis of pCR and 79 patients from RTOG 0630 were evaluated for long-term outcomes. Intervention: Patients in trial 9514 received CT interdigitated with RT, whereas those in trial 0630 received preoperative RT alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall and disease-free survival (OS and DFS) rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Hazard ratios (HRs) and P values were estimated by multivariable Cox model stratified by study, where possible; otherwise, P values were calculated by stratified log-rank test. Analysis took place between December 14, 2016, to April 13, 2017. Results: Overall there were 42 (53.2%) men; 68 (86.1%) were white; with a mean (SD) age of 59.6 (14.5) years. For RTOG 0630, at median follow-up of 6.0 years, there was 1 new in-field recurrence and 1 new distant failure since the initial report. From both studies, 123 patients were evaluable for pCR: 14 of 51 (27.5%) in trial 9514 and 14 of 72 (19.4%) in trial 0630 had pCR. Five-year OS was 100% for patients with pCR vs 76.5% (95% CI, 62.3%-90.8%) and 56.4% (95% CI, 43.3%-69.5%) for patients with less than pCR in trials 9514 and 0630, respectively. Overall, pCR was associated with improved OS (P = .01) and DFS (HR, 4.91; 95% CI, 1.51-15.93; P = .008) relative to less than pCR. Five-year local failure rate was 0% in patients with pCR vs 11.7% (95% CI, 3.6%-25.1%) and 9.1% (95% CI, 3.3%-18.5%) for patients with less than pCR in 9514 and 0630, respectively. Histologic types other than leiomyosarcoma, liposarcoma, and myxofibrosarcoma were associated with worse OS (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.12-4.45). Conclusions and Relevance: This ancillary analysis of 2 nonrandomized clinical trials found that pCR was associated with improved survival in patients with STS and should be considered as a prognostic factor of clinical outcomes for future studies. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: RTOG 0630 (NCT00589121); RTOG 9514 (NCT00002791).

Radiotherapy and paclitaxel plus pazopanib or placebo in anaplastic thyroid cancer (NRG/RTOG 0912): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Anaplastic thyroid cancer is a rare and aggressive cancer with no standard radiotherapy-based local treatment. Based on data suggesting synergy between pazopanib and paclitaxel in anaplastic thyroid cancer, NRG Oncology did a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised phase 2 clinical trial comparing concurrent paclitaxel and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with the addition of pazopanib or placebo with the aim of improving overall survival in this patient population. METHODS: Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older with a pathological diagnosis of anaplastic thyroid cancer, any TNM stage, Zubrod performance status of 0-2, no recent haemoptysis or bleeding, and no brain metastases. Patients were enrolled from 34 centres in the USA. Initially, a run-in was done to establish safety. In the randomised phase 2 trial, patients in the experimental group (pazopanib) received 2-3 weeks of weekly paclitaxel (80 mg/m2) intravenously and daily pazopanib suspension 400 mg orally followed by concurrent weekly paclitaxel (50 mg/m2), daily pazopanib (300 mg), and IMRT 66 Gy given in 33 daily fractions (2 Gy fractions). In the control group (placebo), pazopanib was replaced by matching placebo. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to the two treatment groups by permuted block randomisation by NRG Oncology with stratification by metastatic disease. All investigators, patients, and funders of the study were masked to group allocation. The primary endpoint was overall survival in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study treatment. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01236547, and is complete. FINDINGS: The safety run-showed the final dosing regimen to be safe based on two out of nine participants having adverse events of predefined concern. Between June 23, 2014, and Dec 30, 2016, 89 patients were enrolled to the phase 2 trial, of whom 71 were eligible (36 in the pazopanib group and 35 in the placebo group; 34 [48%] males and 37 [52%] females). At the final analysis (data cutoff March 9, 2020), with a median follow-up of 2·9 years (IQR 0·002-4·0), 61 patients had died. Overall survival was not significantly improved with pazopanib versus placebo, with a median overall survival of 5·7 months (95% CI 4·0-12·8) in the pazopanib group versus 7·3 months (4·3-10·6) in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·86, 95% CI 0·52-1·43; one-sided log-rank p=0·28). 1-year overall survival was 37·1% (95% CI 21·1-53·2) in the pazopanib group and 29·0% (13·2-44·8) in the placebo group. The incidence of grade 3-5 adverse events did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (pazopanib 88·9% [32 of 36 patients] and placebo 85·3% [29 of 34 patients]; p=0·73). The most common clinically significant grade 3-4 adverse events in the 70 eligible treated patients (36 in the pazopanib group and 34 in the placebo group) were dysphagia (13 [36%] vs 10 [29%]), radiation dermatitis (8 [22%] vs 13 [38%]), increased alanine aminotransferase (12 [33%] vs none), increased aspartate aminotransferase (eight [22%] vs none), and oral mucositis (five [14%] vs eight [24%]). Treatment-related serious adverse events were reported for 16 (44%) patients on pazopanib and 12 (35%) patients on placebo. The most common serious adverse events were dehydration and thromboembolic event (three [8%] each) in patients on pazopanib and oral mucositis (three [8%]) in those on placebo. There was one treatment-related death in each group (sepsis in the pazopanib group and pneumonitis in the placebo group). INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this study is the largest randomised anaplastic thyroid cancer study that has completed accrual showing feasibility in a multicenter NCI National Clinical Trials Network setting. Although no significant improvement in overall survival was recorded in the pazopanib group, the treatment combination was shown to be feasible and safe, and hypothesis-generating data that might warrant further investigation were generated. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute and Novartis.

Long-Term Update of NRG/RTOG 0522: A Randomized Phase 3 Trial of Concurrent Radiation and Cisplatin With or Without Cetuximab in Locoregionally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer.

PURPOSE: The combination of cisplatin and radiation or cetuximab and radiation improves overall survival of patients with locoregionally advanced head and neck carcinoma. NRG Oncology conducted a phase 3 trial to test the hypothesis that adding cetuximab to radiation and cisplatin would improve progression-free survival (PFS). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Eligible patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer sixth edition stage T2 N2a-3 M0 or T3-4 N0-3 M0 were accrued from November 2005 to March 2009 and randomized to receive radiation and cisplatin without (arm A) or with (arm B) cetuximab. Outcomes were correlated with patient and tumor features. Late reactions were scored using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 3). RESULTS: Of 891 analyzed patients, 452 with a median follow-up of 10.1 years were alive at analysis. The addition of cetuximab did not improve PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-1.26; P = .74), with 10-year estimates of 43.6% (95% CI, 38.8- 48.4) for arm A and 40.2% (95% CI, 35.4-45.0) for arm B. Cetuximab did not reduce locoregional failure (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.95-1.53; P = .94) or distant metastasis (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.54-1.14; P = .10) or improve overall survival (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.80-1.16; P = .36). Cetuximab did not appear to improve PFS in either p16-positive oropharynx (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.87-1.93) or p16-negative oropharynx or nonoropharyngeal primary (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.73-1.21). Grade 3 to 4 late toxicity rates were 57.4% in arm A and 61.3% in arm B (P = .26). CONCLUSIONS: With a median follow-up of more than 10 years, this updated report confirms the addition of cetuximab to radiation therapy and cisplatin did not improve any measured outcome in the entire cohort or when stratifying by p16 status.

Safety of Nivolumab Added to Chemoradiation Therapy Platforms for Intermediate and High-Risk Locoregionally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: RTOG Foundation 3504.

PURPOSE: Programmed death-1 immune checkpoint blockade improves survival of patients with recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), but the benefits of addition to (chemo)radiation for newly diagnosed patients with HNSCC remain unknown. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We evaluated the safety of nivolumab concomitant with 70 Gy intensity modulated radiation therapy and weekly cisplatin (arm 1), every 3-week cisplatin (arm 2), cetuximab (arm 3), or alone for platinum-ineligible patients (arm 4) in newly diagnosed intermediate- or high-risk locoregionally advanced HNSCC. Patients received nivolumab from 2 weeks prior to radiation therapy until 3 months post-radiation therapy. The primary endpoint was dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). If ≤2 of the first 8 evaluable patients experienced a DLT, an arm was considered safe. Secondary endpoints included toxicity and feasibility of adjuvant nivolumab to 1 year, defined as all 7 additional doses received by ≥4 of the first 8 evaluable patients across arms. RESULTS: Of 39 patients (10 in arms 1, 3, 4 and 9 in arm 2), 72% had T3-4 tumors, 85% had N2-3 nodal disease, and 67% had >10 pack-years of smoking. There were no DLTs in arms 1 and 2, 1 in arm 3 (mucositis), and 2 in arm 4 (lipase elevation and mucositis in 1 and fatigue in another). The most common grade ≥3 nivolumab-related adverse events were lipase increase, mucositis, diarrhea, lymphopenia, hyponatremia, leukopenia, fatigue, and serum amylase increase. Adjuvant nivolumab was feasible as defined in the protocol. CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant nivolumab with the 4 tested regimens was safe for patients with intermediate- and high-risk HNSCC, and subsequent adjuvant nivolumab was feasible as defined (NCT02764593).

Evolutionary Action Score of TP53 Analysis in Pathologically High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Negative Head and Neck Cancer From a Phase 2 Clinical Trial: NRG Oncology Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0234.

Purpose: An evolutionary action scoring algorithm (EAp53) based on phylogenetic sequence variations stratifies patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) bearing TP53 missense mutations as high-risk, associated with poor outcomes, or low-risk, with similar outcomes as TP53 wild-type, and has been validated as a reliable prognostic marker. We performed this study to further validate prior findings demonstrating that EAp53 is a prognostic marker for patients with locally advanced HNSCC and explored its predictive value for treatment outcomes to adjuvant bio-chemoradiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Eighty-one resection samples from patients treated surgically for stage III or IV human papillomavirus-negative HNSCC with high-risk pathologic features, who received either radiation therapy + cetuximab + cisplatin (cisplatin) or radiation therapy + cetuximab + docetaxel (docetaxel) as adjuvant treatment in a phase 2 study were subjected to TP53 targeted sequencing and EAp53 scoring to correlate with clinical outcomes. Due to the limited sample size, patients were combined into 2 EAp53 groups: (1) wild-type or low-risk; and (2) high-risk or other. Results: At a median follow-up of 9.8 years, there was a significant interaction between EAp53 group and treatment for overall survival (P = .008), disease-free survival (P = .05), and distant metastasis (DM; P = .004). In wild-type or low-risk group, the docetaxel arm showed significantly better overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.11, [0.03-0.36]), disease-free survival (HR 0.24, [0.09-0.61]), and less DM (HR 0.04, [0.01-0.31]) than the cisplatin arm. In high-risk or other group, differences between treatments were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The docetaxel arm was associated with better survival than the cisplatin arm for patients with wild-type or low-risk EAp53. These benefits appear to be largely driven by a reduction in DM.

Nodal Metastasis Count and Oncologic Outcomes in Head and Neck Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of NRG/RTOG 9501, NRG/RTOG 0234, and EORTC 22931.

PURPOSE: A better understanding of the relationship between the spread of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) to regional lymph nodes (LNs) and the frequency and manner of treatment failure should help design better treatment intensification strategies. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between recurrence patterns, mortality, and number of pathologically positive (+) LNs in HNSCC in 3 prospective randomized controlled trials. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We performed a secondary analysis of 947 patients with HNSCC enrolled in RTOG 9501 (n = 410), RTOG 0234 (n = 203), and EORTC 22931 (n = 334) undergoing surgery and postoperative radiation ± systemic therapy. Multivariable models were constructed for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional relapse (LRR), and distant metastases (DM). Restricted cubic splines were used to model the nonlinear relationship between +LN number and outcomes. RESULTS: In multivariable analysis, OS and DFS decreased with each +LN without plateau, most pronounced up to 5 +LNs (OS: hazard ratio [HR], 1.21 per +LN; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.34; P < .001; DFS: HR per +LN, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.30; P < .001) and more gradually beyond this (OS: HR per +LN, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; P < .001; DFS: HR per +LN, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06; P < .001). In contrast to LRR risk, which increased sharply up to 5 +LNs (HR per +LN, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.50; P < .001) but plateaued beyond this (HR per +LN, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.96-1.04; P = .98), DM risk increased continuously with increasing +LNs (≤5 +LNs: HR per +LN, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.20; P = .04; >5 +LNs: HR per +LN, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; P = .003). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk resected HNSCC, increased mortality was associated with increased +LN count. LRR and DM risk both increased in parallel up to 5 +LNs, but only DM continued to increase for further +LN increases. These differing recurrence patterns can help inform design of future treatments.

An Overview of Phase 2 Clinical Trial Designs.

Clinical trials are studies to test new treatments in humans. Typically, these treatments are evaluated over several phases to assess their safety and efficacy. Phase 1 trials are designed to evaluate the safety and tolerability of a new treatment, typically with a small number of patients (eg, 20-80), generally spread across several dose levels. Phase 2 trials are designed to determine whether the new treatment has sufficiently promising efficacy to warrant further investigation in a large-scale randomized phase 3 trial, as well as to further assess safety. These studies usually involve a few hundred patients. This article provides an overview of some of the most commonly used phase 2 designs for clinical trials and emphasizes their critical elements and considerations. Key references to some of the most commonly used phase 2 designs are given to allow the reader to explore in more detail the critical aspects when planning a phase 2 trial. A comparison of 3 potential designs in the context of the NRG-HN002 trial is presented to complement the discussion about phase 2 trials.

NRG-HN003: Phase I and Expansion Cohort Study of Adjuvant Pembrolizumab, Cisplatin and Radiation Therapy in Pathologically High-Risk Head and Neck Cancer.

The anti-PD1 monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab improves survival in recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Patients with locoregional, pathologically high-risk HNSCC recur frequently despite adjuvant cisplatin-radiation therapy (CRT). Targeting PD1 may reverse immunosuppression induced by HNSCC and CRT. We conducted a phase I trial with an expansion cohort (n = 20) to determine the recommended phase II schedule (RP2S) for adding fixed-dose pembrolizumab to standard adjuvant CRT. Eligible patients had resected HPV-negative, stage III-IV oral cavity, pharynx, or larynx HNSCC with extracapsular nodal extension or positive margin. RP2S was declared if three or fewer dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) occurred in a cohort of 12. DLT was defined as grade 3 or higher non-hematologic adverse event (AE) related to pembrolizumab, immune-related AE requiring over 2 weeks of systemic steroids, or unacceptable RT delay. A total of 34 patients enrolled at 23 NRG institutions. During the first cohort, only one DLT was observed (fever), thus RP2S was declared as pembrolizumab 200 mg every 3 weeks for eight doses, starting one week before CRT. During expansion, three additional DLTs were observed (wound infection, diverticulitis, nausea). Of the 34 patients, 28 (82%) received five or more doses of pembrolizumab. This regimen was safe and feasible in a cooperative group setting. Further development is warranted.

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer: an individual patient data network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised, controlled trials and meta-analyses have shown the survival benefit of concomitant chemoradiotherapy or hyperfractionated radiotherapy in the treatment of locally advanced head and neck cancer. However, the relative efficacy of these treatments is unknown. We aimed to determine whether one treatment was superior to the other. METHODS: We did a frequentist network meta-analysis based on individual patient data of meta-analyses evaluating the role of chemotherapy (Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Head and Neck Cancer [MACH-NC]) and of altered fractionation radiotherapy (Meta-Analysis of Radiotherapy in Carcinomas of Head and Neck [MARCH]). Randomised, controlled trials that enrolled patients with non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell cancer between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016, were included. We used a two-step random-effects approach, and the log-rank test, stratified by trial to compare treatments, with locoregional therapy as the reference. Overall survival was the primary endpoint. The global Cochran Q statistic was used to assess homogeneity and consistency and P score to rank treatments (higher scores indicate more effective therapies). FINDINGS: 115 randomised, controlled trials, which enrolled patients between Jan 1, 1980, and April 30, 2012, yielded 154 comparisons (28 978 patients with 19 253 deaths and 20 579 progression events). Treatments were grouped into 16 modalities, for which 35 types of direct comparisons were available. Median follow-up based on all trials was 6·6 years (IQR 5·0-9·4). Hyperfractionated radiotherapy with concomitant chemotherapy (HFCRT) was ranked as the best treatment for overall survival (P score 97%; hazard ratio 0·63 [95% CI 0·51-0·77] compared with locoregional therapy). The hazard ratio of HFCRT compared with locoregional therapy with concomitant chemoradiotherapy with platinum-based chemotherapy (CLRTP) was 0·82 (95% CI 0·66-1·01) for overall survival. The superiority of HFCRT was robust to sensitivity analyses. Three other modalities of treatment had a better P score, but not a significantly better HR, for overall survival than CLRTP (P score 78%): induction chemotherapy with taxane, cisplatin, and fluorouracil followed by locoregional therapy (ICTaxPF-LRT; 89%), accelerated radiotherapy with concomitant chemotherapy (82%), and ICTaxPF followed by CLRT (80%). INTERPRETATION: The results of this network meta-analysis suggest that further intensifying chemoradiotherapy, using HFCRT or ICTaxPF-CLRT, could improve outcomes over chemoradiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced head and neck cancer. FUNDINGS: French Institut National du Cancer, French Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, and Fondation ARC.

Fundamental Statistical Concepts in Clinical Trials and Diagnostic Testing.

This article explores basic statistical concepts of clinical trial design and diagnostic testing, or how one starts with a question, formulates it into a hypothesis on which a clinical trial is then built, and integrates it with statistics and probability, such as determining the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (type I error) and the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false (type II error). There are a variety of tests for different types of data, and the appropriate test must be chosen for which the sample data meet the assumptions. Correcting type I error in the presence of multiple testing is needed to control the error's inflation. Within diagnostic testing, identifying false-positive and false-negative results is critical to understanding the performance of a test. These are used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of a test along with the test's negative predictive value and positive predictive value. These quantities, specifically sensitivity and specificity, are used to determine the accuracy of a diagnostic test using receiver-operating-characteristic curves. These concepts are briefly introduced to provide a basic understanding of clinical trial design and analysis, with references to allow the reader to explore various concepts at a more detailed level if desired.

Reduced-Dose Radiation Therapy for HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Carcinoma (NRG Oncology HN002).

PURPOSE: Reducing radiation treatment dose could improve the quality of life (QOL) of patients with good-risk human papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Whether reduced-dose radiation produces disease control and QOL equivalent to standard chemoradiation is not proven. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this randomized, phase II trial, patients with p16-positive, T1-T2 N1-N2b M0, or T3 N0-N2b M0 OPSCC (7th edition staging) with ≤ 10 pack-years of smoking received 60 Gy of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) over 6 weeks with concurrent weekly cisplatin (C) or 60 Gy IMRT over 5 weeks. To be considered for a phase III study, an arm had to achieve a 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) rate superior to a historical control rate of 85% and a 1-year mean composite score ≥ 60 on the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI). RESULTS: Three hundred six patients were randomly assigned and eligible. Two-year PFS for IMRT + C was 90.5% rejecting the null hypothesis of 2-year PFS ≤ 85% (P = .04). For IMRT, 2-year PFS was 87.6% (P = .23). One-year MDADI mean scores were 85.30 and 81.76 for IMRT + C and IMRT, respectively. Two-year overall survival rates were 96.7% for IMRT + C and 97.3% for IMRT. Acute adverse events (AEs) were defined as those occurring within 180 days from the end of treatment. There were more grade 3-4 acute AEs for IMRT + C (79.6% v 52.4%; P < .001). Rates of grade 3-4 late AEs were 21.3% and 18.1% (P = .56). CONCLUSION: The IMRT + C arm met both prespecified end points justifying advancement to a phase III study. Higher rates of grade ≥ 3 acute AEs were reported in the IMRT + C arm.

The utility of delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) measures obtained from oral fluid samples in traffic safety.

Objective: Blood and/or urine are typical drug detection matrices used by law enforcement. There are some concerns about using oral fluid (OF) in the identification of drivers potentially impaired by cannabis, particularly regarding their accuracy when compared to blood. The study objectives were to (1) examine the accuracy of predicting delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in blood from THC measured in OF and (2) examine factors influencing prediction accuracy. Methods: Using data from the 2007 and 2013-2014 National Roadside Survey (NRS) of Alcohol and Drug Use, 7,517 drivers with known laboratory results in both OF and blood were included in this study. OF samples were collected using the Quantisal® device and analyzed at the same private laboratory in both the 2007 and 2013-2014 NRS. The Quantisal device has consistently shown to collect 1 mL ±10%. Descriptive statistical analyses were used to examine and compare the distribution of THC concentrations in OF and blood. A hurdle model was applied to examine factors influencing the accuracy of the THCblood predictions based on THCOF while accounting for the decisions of cannabis consumption. We estimated the number of true positives (TPs), false positives (FPs), true negatives (TNs), false negatives (FNs), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predicted value (PPV). Results: This study found that THC measured in OF (THCOF) is a good predictor of THC measured in blood (THCblood), in particular when THCOF > 0 ng/mL is used to predict being positive for THCblood (THCblood > 0 ng/mL). However, as blood and OF concentrations depart from 0 ng/mL, the proportion of TPs (sensitivity) decreases, which might be a concern for law enforcement. The likelihood of accurately predicting THCblood from THCOF is lower for drivers who were simultaneously using cannabis and other drugs. Conclusions: The findings of this study are based on THC measures obtained in a laboratory, which may not be the same as those conducted by police using point-of-care devices. However, this study is unique due to its large sample of drivers obtained in similar roadside locations and times to actual law enforcement activities. Though a positive THCOF may assist law enforcement in probable cause for a blood draw, efforts to develop reliable methods to detect drug impairment based on OF should continue.

Alcohol-Related Risk of Driver Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Crashes: Comparing Data From 2007 and 2013-2014.

OBJECTIVE: Using data from 2013-2014, this article aims to update alcohol-related fatal crash relative risk estimates, defined as the risk of dying in those crashes at different blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) relative to the risk of dying in a crash when sober (BAC = .00 g/dl), and to examine any change in risk that could have taken place between 2007 and 2013-2014. More specifically, we examine changes in risk among BAC = .00 g/dl drivers and among BAC > .00 g/ dl drivers. METHOD: We matched and merged crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and exposure data from the National Roadside Survey (NRS). To the matched database we applied logistic regression to estimate the changes in relative risk. RESULTS: We found that among sober (BAC = .00 g/dl) drivers, the risk of dying in a fatal crash decreased between 2007 and 2013-2014. For drinking drivers, however, no parallel reduction in the overall contribution of alcohol to the fatal crash risk occurred. Compared with 2007, in 2013-2014 the oldest group of drivers (age ≥ 35 years) were at an elevated crash risk when driving at low BACs (.00 g/dl < BAC < .02 g/dl). CONCLUSIONS: Although the decrease in crash risk for drivers with a BAC of .00 g/dl is encouraging, the consistency of the alcohol-related risk estimates over the last two decades suggests the need to substantially strengthen current efforts to abate drinking and driving.

Marijuana and the Risk of Fatal Car Crashes: What Can We Learn from FARS and NRS Data?

Lab studies have shown that marijuana can severely impair driving skills. Epidemiological studies, however, have been inconclusive regarding the contribution of marijuana use to crash risk. In the United States, case-control studies based on the merging of comparable crash Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and non-crash National Roadside Survey (NRS) data have been applied to assess the contribution of drugs to crash risk, but these studies have yielded confusing, even contradictory results. We hypothesize that such a divergence of results emanates from limitations in the databases used in these studies, in particular that of the FARS. The goal of this effort is to examine this hypothesis, and in doing so, illuminate the pros and cons of using these databases for drugged-driving research efforts. We took advantage of two relatively recent cannabis crash risk studies that, despite using similar databases (the FARS and the NRS) and following similar overall approaches, yielded opposite results (Li, Brady, & Chen, 2013; Romano, Torres-Saavedra, Voas, & Lacey, 2014). By identifying methodological similarities and differences between these efforts, we assessed how the limitations of the FARS and NRS databases contributed to contradictory and biased results. Because of its limitations, we suggest that the FARS database should neither be used to examine trends in drug use nor to obtain precise risk estimates. However, under certain conditions (e.g., based on data from jurisdictions that routinely test for drugs, with as little variation in testing procedures as possible), the FARS database could be used to assess the contribution of drugs to fatal crash risk relative to other sources of risk such as alcohol.

Drugs and alcohol: their relative crash risk.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine (a) whether among sober (blood alcohol concentration [BAC] = .00%) drivers, being drug positive increases the drivers' risk of being killed in a fatal crash; (b) whether among drinking (BAC > .00%) drivers, being drug positive increases the drivers' risk of being killed in a fatal crash; and (c) whether alcohol and other drugs interact in increasing crash risk. METHOD: We compared BACs for the 2006, 2007, and 2008 crash cases drawn from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with control drug and blood alcohol data from participants in the 2007 U.S. National Roadside Survey. Only FARS drivers from states with drug information on 80% or more of the drivers who also participated in the 2007 National Roadside Survey were selected. RESULTS: For both sober and drinking drivers, being positive for a drug was found to increase the risk of being fatally injured. When the drug-positive variable was separated into marijuana and other drugs, only the latter was found to contribute significantly to crash risk. In all cases, the contribution of drugs other than alcohol to crash risk was significantly lower than that produced by alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Although overall, drugs contribute to crash risk regardless of the presence of alcohol, such a contribution is much lower than that by alcohol. The lower contribution of drugs other than alcohol to crash risk relative to that of alcohol suggests caution in focusing too much on drugged driving, potentially diverting scarce resources from curbing drunk driving.