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BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for coronavirus disease (COVID) are used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to inform treatment decisions. However, to date, it is unclear when this use is cost-effective. Existing analyses are limited to a narrow set of countries and uses. The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID RDTs to inform the treatment of patients with severe illness in LMICs, considering real world practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of COVID testing across LMICs using a decision tree model, differentiating results by country income level, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence, and testing scenario (none, RDTs, polymerase chain reaction tests-PCRs and combinations). LMIC experts defined realistic care pathways and treatment options. Using a healthcare provider perspective and net monetary benefit approach, we assessed both intended (COVID symptom alleviation) and unintended (treatment side effects) health and economic impacts for each testing scenario. We included the side effects of corticosteroids, which are often the only available treatment for COVID. Because side effects depend both on the treatment and the patient's underlying illness (COVID or COVID-like illnesses, such as influenza), we considered the prevalence of COVID-like illnesses in our analyses. We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing of patients with severe COVID-like illness can be cost-effective in all LMICs, though only in some circumstances. High influenza prevalence among suspected COVID cases improves cost-effectiveness, since incorrectly provided corticosteroids may worsen influenza outcomes. In low- and some lower-middle-income countries, only patients with a high index of suspicion for COVID should be tested with RDTs, while other patients should be presumed to not have COVID. In some lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, suspected severe COVID cases should almost always be tested. Further, in these settings, negative test results in patients with a high initial index of suspicion should be confirmed through PCR and, during influenza outbreaks, positive results in patients with a low initial index of suspicion should also be confirmed with a PCR. The use of interleukin-6 receptor blockers, when supported by testing, may also be cost-effective in higher-income LMICs. The cost at which they would be cost-effective in low-income countries ($162 to $406 per treatment course) is below current prices. The primary limitation of our analysis is substantial uncertainty around some of the parameters in our model due to limited data, most notably on current COVID mortality with standard of care, and insufficient evidence on the impact of corticosteroids on patients with severe influenza. CONCLUSIONS: COVID testing can be cost-effective to inform treatment of LMIC patients with severe COVID-like disease. The optimal algorithm is driven by country income level and health budgets, the level of suspicion that the patient may have COVID, and influenza prevalence. Further research to better characterize the unintended effects of corticosteroids, particularly on influenza cases, could improve decision making around the treatment of those with COVID-like symptoms in LMICs.
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COVID-19 , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países em Desenvolvimento , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/economia , Estado Terminal/economia , Teste para COVID-19/economia , Teste para COVID-19/métodos , Árvores de Decisões , Testes de Diagnóstico RápidoRESUMO
Adolescents account for an estimated 800,000 incident tuberculosis (TB) cases annually and are at risk for suboptimal adherence to TB treatment. Most studies of adolescent TB treatment adherence have used surveillance data with limited psychosocial information. This prospective cohort study aimed to identify risk factors for suboptimal adherence to rifampicin-susceptible TB treatment among adolescents (10-19 years old) in Lima, Peru. We collected psychosocial data using self-administered surveys and clinical data via medical record abstraction. Applying k-means cluster analysis, we grouped participants by psychosocial characteristics hypothesized to impact adherence. Then, we conducted mixed effects regression to compare suboptimal adherence-defined as <90% (missing >10% of doses)-between clusters. Treatment setting (facility vs. home) and drug formulation (single drug vs. fixed dose combination) were interaction terms. Of 249 participants, 90 (36.1%) were female. Median age was 17 (IQR: 15, 16.6) years. We identified three clusters-A, B, and C-of participants based on psychosocial characteristics. Cluster C had the lowest support from caregivers, other family members, and friends; had the weakest motivation to complete TB treatment; were least likely to live with their mothers; and had experienced the most childhood adversity. Among the 118 (47.4%) participants who received facility-based treatment with single drug formulations, adherence did not differ between Clusters A and B, but Cluster C had six-fold odds of suboptimal adherence compared to Cluster A. In Clusters B and C, adherence worsened over time, but only in Cluster C did mean adherence fall below 90% within six months. Our findings have implications for the care of adolescents with TB. When caring for adolescents with low social support and other risk factors, clinicians should take extra measures to reinforce adherence, such as identifying a community health worker or peer to provide treatment support. Implementing newly recommended shorter regimens also may facilitate adherence.
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BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic testing may support improved treatment of COVID patients. Understanding COVID testing and care pathways is important for assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of testing in the real world, yet there is limited information on these pathways in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). We therefore undertook an expert consultation to better understand testing policies and practices, clinical screening, the profile of patients seeking testing or care, linkage to care after testing, treatment, lessons learnt and expected changes in 2023. METHODS: We organized a qualitative consultation with ten experts from seven LMICs (India, Indonesia, Malawi, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Zimbabwe) identified through purposive sampling. We conducted structured interviews during six regional consultations, and undertook a thematic analysis of responses. RESULTS: Participants reported that, after initial efforts to scale-up testing, the policy priority given to COVID testing has declined. Comorbidities putting patients at heightened risk (e.g., diabetes) mainly relied on self-identification. The decision to test following clinical screening was highly context-/location-specific, often dictated by local epidemiology and test availability. When rapid diagnostic tests were available, public sector healthcare providers tended to rely on them for diagnosis (alongside PCR for Asian/Latin American participants), while private sector providers predominantly used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Positive test results were generally taken at 'face value' by clinicians, although negative tests with a high index of suspicion may be confirmed with PCR. However, even with a positive result, patients were not always linked to care in a timely manner because of reluctance to receiving care or delays in returning to care centres upon clinical deterioration. Countries often lacked multiple components of the range of therapeutics advised in WHO guidelines: notably so for oral antivirals designed for high-risk mild patients. Severely ill patients mostly received corticosteroids and, in higher-resourced settings, tocilizumab. CONCLUSIONS: Testing does not always prompt enhanced care, due to reluctance on the part of patients and limited therapeutic availability within clinical settings. Any analysis of the impact or cost-effectiveness of testing policies post pandemic needs to either consider investment in optimal treatment pathways or constrain estimates of benefits based on actual practice.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Teste para COVID-19 , Procedimentos Clínicos , Encaminhamento e ConsultaRESUMO
Background: Rapid diagnostic testing may support improved treatment of COVID patients. Understanding COVID testing and care pathways is important for assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of testing in the real world, yet there is limited information on these pathways in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). We therefore undertook an expert consultation to better understand testing policies and practices, clinical screening, the profile of patients seeking testing or care, linkage to care after testing, treatment, lessons learnt and expected changes in 2023 in LMICs. Methods: We organized a qualitative consultation with ten experts from seven LMICs identified through purposive sampling. We conducted structured interviews during six regional consultations, and undertook a thematic analysis of the responses to our questions. Results: Participants reported that, after initial efforts to scale-up testing (which often encountered delays), the policy priority given to COVID testing has declined. Comorbidities putting patients at heightened risk (e.g., diabetes) mainly relied on self-identification. The decision to test following clinical screening was highly context- and location-specific, often dictated by local epidemiology and test availability. When rapid diagnostic tests were available, public sector healthcare providers tended to rely on them for diagnosis, while private sector providers predominantly used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Positive test results were generally taken at 'face value' by clinicians, although negative tests with a high index of suspicion may be confirmed with PCR. However, even with a positive result, patients were not always linked to care in a timely manner because of reluctance to receiving care or delays in returning to care centres upon clinical deterioration. Countries often lacked multiple components of the range of therapeutics advised in WHO guidelines: notably so for oral antivirals designed for high-risk mild patients. Severely ill patients mostly received corticosteroids and, in higher-resourced settings, tocilizumab. Conclusions: Testing does not always prompt enhanced care, due to reluctance on the part of patients and limited therapeutic availability within clinical settings. Any analysis of the impact or cost-effectiveness of testing policies post pandemic needs to either consider investment in optimal treatment pathways or constrain estimates of benefits based on actual practice.
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Background: Few studies have examined the burden of postacute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (PASC) in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to characterize PASC with self-reported questionnaires and clinical examinations of end-organ function in Lima, Peru. Methods: From January to July 2021, we recruited participants at least 8 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis from a case registry in Lima, Peru. We evaluated participants for PASC with questionnaires, neuropsychiatric evaluations, chest X-ray, spirometry, electrocardiogram, and echocardiogram. We used multivariable models to identify risk factors for PASC. Results: We assessed 989 participants for PASC at a median 4.7 months after diagnosis. Clinically significant respiratory symptoms were reported by 68.3% of participants, particularly those who had been severely ill during acute COVID-19, and were associated with cardiac findings of ventricular hypertrophy or dilation on echocardiogram. Neuropsychiatric questionnaires were consistent with depression in 20.7% and cognitive impairment in 8.0%. Female sex and older age were associated with increased risk of respiratory (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.36 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.69-3.31] and aOR, 1.01 [95% CI, 1.00-1.03], respectively) and neuropsychiatric sequelae (aOR, 2.99 [95% CI, 2.16-4.18] and aOR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03], respectively). Conclusions: COVID-19 survivors in Lima, Peru, experienced frequent postacute respiratory symptoms and depression, particularly among older and female participants. Clinical examinations highlighted the need for cardiopulmonary rehabilitation among persons with severe COVID-19; psychosocial support may be required among all COVID-19 survivors.
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BACKGROUND: Rapid IgM/IgG antibody tests were largely used in lieu of RT-PCR tests as part of COVID-19 public health response activities in Lima, Peru. To assess their utility, we explored the relationship between the time since onset of several COVID-19-related symptoms and the sensitivity of a rapid combined IgM/IgG antibody test. METHODS: We collected data from a community sample of individuals (n = 492) who received concurrent RT-PCR and rapid IgM/IgG antibody testing between May 2020 and March 2021. We estimated the sensitivity of the antibody test, against the RT-PCR test, by weeks since symptom onset via segmented regression analysis. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity of the rapid IgM/IgG antibody test was 46.7% (95% CI, 42.4-51.2%). Among 372 (75.6%) participants who reported COVID-19-related symptoms, sensitivity increased from 30.4% (95% CI, 24.7-36.6%) in week 1 after symptom onset to 83.3% (95% CI, 41.6-98.4%) in week 4. The test sensitivity increased by 31.9% (95% CI, 24.8-39.0%) per week until week 2 to 3, then decreased by - 6.0% (95% CI, - 25.7-13.7%) per week thereafter. CONCLUSION: Rapid antibody tests are a poor substitute for RT-PCR testing, regardless of presenting symptoms. This highlights the need for future pandemic planning to include timely and equitable access to gold-standard diagnostics, treatment, and vaccination.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Imunoglobulina G/análise , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Peru/epidemiologia , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Imunoglobulina M/análise , Anticorpos Antivirais/análise , Teste para COVID-19RESUMO
Widely available and reliable testing for SARS-CoV-2 is essential for the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the diagnostic performance of reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) performed on saliva and the SD Biosensor STANDARD Q antigen test performed on nasopharyngeal swab compared to the reference standard, nasopharyngeal swab (NP) RT-PCR. We enrolled participants living and/or seeking care in health facilities in North Lima, Peru from November 2020 to January 2021. Consenting participants underwent same-day RT-PCR on both saliva and nasopharyngeal swab specimens, antigen testing on a nasopharyngeal swab specimen, pulse oximetry, and standardized symptom assessment. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for the nasopharyngeal antigen and saliva RT-PCR compared to nasopharyngeal RT-PCR. Of 896 participants analyzed, 567 (63.3%) had acute signs/symptoms of COVID-19. The overall sensitivity and specificity of saliva RT-PCR were 85.8% and 98.1%, respectively. Among participants with and without acute signs/symptoms of COVID-19, saliva sensitivity was 87.3% and 37.5%, respectively. Saliva sensitivity was 97.4% and 56.0% among participants with cycle threshold (CT) values of ≤30 and >30 on nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, respectively. The overall sensitivity and specificity of nasopharyngeal antigen were 73.2% and 99.4%, respectively. The sensitivity of the nasopharyngeal antigen test was 75.1% and 12.5% among participants with and without acute signs/symptoms of COVID-19, and 91.2% and 26.7% among participants with CT values of ≤30 and >30 on nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, respectively. Saliva RT-PCR achieved the WHO-recommended threshold of >80% for sensitivity for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, while the SD Biosensor nasopharyngeal antigen test did not. IMPORTANCE In this diagnostic validation study of 896 participants in Peru, saliva reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) had >80% sensitivity for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 among all-comers and symptomatic individuals, while the SD Biosensor STANDARD Q antigen test performed on nasopharyngeal swab had <80% sensitivity, except for participants whose same-day nasopharyngeal RT-PCR results showed cycle threshold values of <30, consistent with a high viral load in the nasopharynx. The specificity was high for both tests. Our results demonstrate that saliva sampling could serve as an alternative noninvasive technique for RT-PCR diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. The role of nasopharyngeal antigen testing is more limited; when community transmission is low, it may be used for mass screenings among asymptomatic individuals with high testing frequency. Among symptomatic individuals, the nasopharyngeal antigen test may be relied upon for 4 to 8 days after symptom onset, or in those likely to have high viral load, whereupon it showed >80% sensitivity.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Teste para COVID-19 , Humanos , Nasofaringe , Pandemias , Peru/epidemiologia , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Transcrição Reversa , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Saliva , Manejo de EspécimesRESUMO
In this review, we discuss considerations and successful models for providing decentralized diagnosis, treatment, and prevention services for children and adolescents. Key approaches to building decentralized capacity for childhood TB diagnosis in primary care facilities include provider training and increased access to child-focused diagnostic tools and techniques. Treatment of TB disease should be managed close to where patients live; pediatric formulations of both first- and second-line drugs should be widely available; and any hospitalization should be for as brief a period as medically indicated. TB preventive treatment for child and adolescent contacts must be greatly expanded, which will require home visits to identify contacts, building capacity to rule out TB, and adoption of shorter preventive regimens. Decentralization of TB services should involve the private sector, with collaborations outside the TB program in order to reach children and adolescents where they first enter the health care system. The impact of decentralization will be maximized if programs are family-centered and designed around responding to the needs of children and adolescents affected by TB, as well as their families.
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BACKGROUND: The epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of social protection and biomedical interventions for tuberculosis-affected households might be improved by risk stratification. We therefore derived and externally validated a household-level risk score to predict tuberculosis among contacts of patients with tuberculosis. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited tuberculosis-affected households from 15 desert shanty towns in Ventanilla and 17 urban communities in Callao, Lima, Peru. Tuberculosis-affected households included index patients with a new diagnosis of tuberculosis and their contacts who reported being in the same house as the index patient for more than 6 h per week in the 2 weeks preceding index patient diagnosis. Tuberculosis-affected households were not included if the index patient had no eligible contacts or lived alone. We followed contacts until 2018 and defined household tuberculosis, the primary outcome, as any contact having any form of tuberculosis within 3 years. We used logistic regression to identify characteristics of index patients, contacts, and households that were predictive of household tuberculosis, and used these to derive and externally validate a household-level score. FINDINGS: Between Dec 12, 2007, and Dec 31, 2015, 16â505 contacts from 3â301 households in Ventanilla were included in a derivation cohort. During the 3-year follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 430 (13%, 95% CI 12-14) households. Index patient predictors were pulmonary tuberculosis and sputum smear grade, age, and the maximum number of hours any contact had spent with the index patient while they had any cough. Household predictors were drug use, schooling of the female head of a household, and lower food spending. Contact predictors were if any of the contacts were children, number of lower-weight (body-mass index [BMI] <20·0 kg/m2) adult contacts, number of normal-weight (BMI 20·0-24·9 kg/m2) adult contacts, and number of past or present household members who previously had tuberculosis. In this derivation cohort, the score c statistic was 0·77 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 31% (95% CI 25-38; 65 of 211) versus 2% (95% CI 0-4; four of 231) in the lowest scoring quintile. We externally validated the risk score in a cohort of 4248 contacts from 924 households in Callao recruited between April 23, 2014, and Dec 31, 2015. During follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 120 (13%, 95% CI 11-15) households. The score c statistic in this cohort was 0·75 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 28% (95% CI 21-36; 43 of 154) versus 1% (95% CI 0-5; two of 148) in the lowest scoring quintile. The highest-scoring third of households captured around 70% of all tuberculosis among contacts. A simplified risk score including only five variables performed similarly, with only a small reduction in performance. INTERPRETATION: This externally validated score will enable comprehensive biosocial, household-level interventions to be targeted to tuberculosis-affected households that are most likely to benefit. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care, Department for International Development, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Innovation for Health and Development.
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Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Características da Família , Inquéritos e Questionários , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Tosse/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Drogas Ilícitas , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Peru/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Escarro/microbiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Active case-finding among contacts of patients with tuberculosis is a global health priority, but the effects of active versus passive case-finding are poorly characterised. We assessed the contribution of active versus passive case-finding to tuberculosis detection among contacts and compared sex and disease characteristics between contacts diagnosed through these strategies. METHODS: In shanty towns in Callao, Peru, we identified index patients with tuberculosis and followed up contacts aged 15 years or older for tuberculosis. All patients and contacts were offered free programmatic active case-finding entailing sputum smear microscopy and clinical assessment. Additionally, all contacts were offered intensified active case-finding with sputum smear and culture testing monthly for 6 months and then once every 4 years. Passive case-finding at local health facilities was ongoing throughout follow-up. FINDINGS: Between Oct 23, 2002, and May 26, 2006, we identified 2666 contacts, who were followed up until March 1, 2016. Median follow-up was 10·0 years (IQR 7·5-11·0). 232 (9%) of 2666 contacts were diagnosed with tuberculosis. The 2-year cumulative risk of tuberculosis was 4·6% (95% CI 3·5-5·5), and overall incidence was 0·98 cases (95% CI 0·86-1·10) per 100 person-years. 53 (23%) of 232 contacts with tuberculosis were diagnosed through active case-finding and 179 (77%) were identified through passive case-finding. During the first 6 months of the study, 23 (45%) of 51 contacts were diagnosed through active case-finding and 28 (55%) were identified through passive case-finding. Contacts diagnosed through active versus passive case-finding were more frequently female (36 [68%] of 53 vs 85 [47%] of 179; p=0·009), had a symptom duration of less than 15 days (nine [25%] of 36 vs ten [8%] of 127; p=0·03), and were more likely to be sputum smear-negative (33 [62%] of 53 vs 62 [35%] of 179; p=0·0003). INTERPRETATION: Although active case-finding made an important contribution to tuberculosis detection among contacts, passive case-finding detected most of the tuberculosis burden. Compared with passive case-finding, active case-finding was equitable, helped to diagnose tuberculosis earlier and usually before a positive result on sputum smear microscopy, and showed a high burden of undetected tuberculosis among women. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and IFHAD: Innovation for Health and Development.
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Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adulto , Características da Família , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Peru/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores Sexuais , Escarro/microbiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Mobile phone interventions have been advocated for tuberculosis care, but little is known about access of target populations to mobile phones. We studied mobile phone access among patients with tuberculosis, focusing on vulnerable patients and patients who later had adverse treatment outcomes. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study in Callao, Peru, we recruited and interviewed 2584 patients with tuberculosis between 2007 and 2013 and followed them until 2016 for adverse treatment outcomes using national treatment registers. Subsequently, we recruited a further 622 patients between 2016 and 2017. Data were analysed using logistic regression and by calculating relative risks (RR). RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2013, the proportion of the general population of Peru without mobile phone access averaged 7.8% but for patients with tuberculosis was 18% (P < 0.001). Patients without access were more likely to hold a lower socioeconomic position, suffer from food insecurity and be older than 50 years (all P < 0.01). Compared to patients with mobile phone access, patients without access at recruitment were more likely to subsequently have incomplete treatment (20% vs. 13%, RR = 1.5; P = 0.001) or an adverse treatment outcome (29% vs. 23% RR = 1.3; P = 0.006). Between 2016 and 2017, the proportion of patients without access dropped to 8.9% overall, but remained the same (18%) as in 2012 among the poorest third. CONCLUSION: Access to mobile phones among patients with tuberculosis is insufficient, and rarest in patients who are poorer and later have adverse treatment outcomes. Thus, mobile phone interventions to improve tuberculosis care may be least accessed by the priority populations for whom they are intended. Such interventions should ensure access to mobile phones to enhance equity.
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Telefone Celular/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Telemedicina/estatística & dados numéricos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Peru , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Prospectivos , Envio de Mensagens de Texto/estatística & dados numéricos , Tuberculose/terapiaAssuntos
Tuberculose Pulmonar , Tuberculose , Humanos , Renda , Tuberculose Latente , Atenção Primária à SaúdeRESUMO
In a Perspective accompanying Sylvia and colleagues, Carlton Evans and colleagues discuss the challenge of squaring policies around tuberculosis diagnosis with the realities of clinical practice in small villages and low-resource settings.
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Atenção à Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/terapia , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Contacts of tuberculosis index cases are at increased risk of developing tuberculosis. Screening, preventive therapy, and surveillance for tuberculosis are underused interventions in contacts, particularly adults. We developed a score to predict risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases. METHODS: In 2002-06, we recruited contacts aged 15 years or older of index cases with pulmonary tuberculosis who lived in desert shanty towns in Ventanilla, Peru. We followed up contacts for tuberculosis until February, 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify index case, contact, and household risk factors for tuberculosis from which to derive a score and classify contacts as low, medium, or high risk. We validated the score in an urban community recruited in Callao, Peru, in 2014-15. FINDINGS: In the derivation cohort, we identified 2017 contacts of 715 index cases, and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5-11·8). 178 (9%) of 2017 contacts developed tuberculosis during 19â147 person-years of follow-up (incidence 0·93 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·80-1·08). Risk factors for tuberculosis were body-mass index, previous tuberculosis, age, sustained exposure to the index case, the index case being in a male patient, lower community household socioeconomic position, indoor air pollution, previous tuberculosis among household members, and living in a household with a low number of windows per room. The 10-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 2·8% (95% CI 1·7-4·4), 6·2% (4·8-8·1), and 20·6% (17·3-24·4). The 535 (27%) contacts classified as high risk accounted for 60% of the tuberculosis identified during follow-up. The score predicted tuberculosis independently of tuberculin skin test and index-case drug sensitivity results. In the external validation cohort, 65 (3%) of 1910 contacts developed tuberculosis during 3771 person-years of follow-up (incidence 1·7 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 1·4-2·2). The 2·5-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·8), 3·9% (2·5-5·9), and 8·6%· (5·9-12·6). INTERPRETATION: Our externally validated risk score could predict and stratify 10-year risk of developing tuberculosis in adult contacts, and could be used to prioritise tuberculosis control interventions for people most likely to benefit. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and Innovation for Health and Development.
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Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/transmissão , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Peru , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição de Risco , População Rural , População Urbana , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Background: Sputum from patients with tuberculosis contains subpopulations of metabolically active and inactive Mycobacterium tuberculosis with unknown implications for infectiousness. Methods: We assessed sputum microscopy with fluorescein diacetate (FDA, evaluating M. tuberculosis metabolic activity) for predicting infectiousness. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was quantified in pretreatment sputum of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis using FDA microscopy, culture, and acid-fast microscopy. These 35 patients' 209 household contacts were followed with prevalence surveys for tuberculosis disease for 6 years. Results: FDA microscopy was positive for a median of 119 (interquartile range [IQR], 47-386) bacteria/µL sputum, which was 5.1% (IQR, 2.4%-11%) the concentration of acid-fast microscopy-positive bacteria (2069 [IQR, 1358-3734] bacteria/µL). Tuberculosis was diagnosed during follow-up in 6.4% (13/209) of contacts. For patients with lower than median concentration of FDA microscopy-positive M. tuberculosis, 10% of their contacts developed tuberculosis. This was significantly more than 2.7% of the contacts of patients with higher than median FDA microscopy results (crude hazard ratio [HR], 3.8; P = .03). This association maintained statistical significance after adjusting for disease severity, chemoprophylaxis, drug resistance, and social determinants (adjusted HR, 3.9; P = .02). Conclusions: Mycobacterium tuberculosis that was FDA microscopy negative was paradoxically associated with greater infectiousness. FDA microscopy-negative bacteria in these pretreatment samples may be a nonstaining, slowly metabolizing phenotype better adapted to airborne transmission.
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Fluoresceínas/química , Microscopia , Escarro/microbiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Análise Multivariada , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/isolamento & purificação , Prevalência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Teste Tuberculínico , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of socioeconomic support on tuberculosis preventive therapy initiation in household contacts of tuberculosis patients and on treatment success in patients. METHODS: A non-blinded, household-randomized, controlled study was performed between February 2014 and June 2015 in 32 shanty towns in Peru. It included patients being treated for tuberculosis and their household contacts. Households were randomly assigned to either the standard of care provided by Peru's national tuberculosis programme (control arm) or the same standard of care plus socioeconomic support (intervention arm). Socioeconomic support comprised conditional cash transfers up to 230 United States dollars per household, community meetings and household visits. Rates of tuberculosis preventive therapy initiation and treatment success (i.e. cure or treatment completion) were compared in intervention and control arms. FINDINGS: Overall, 282 of 312 (90%) households agreed to participate: 135 in the intervention arm and 147 in the control arm. There were 410 contacts younger than 20 years: 43% in the intervention arm initiated tuberculosis preventive therapy versus 25% in the control arm (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 2.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.1-4.1). An intention-to-treat analysis showed that treatment was successful in 64% (87/135) of patients in the intervention arm versus 53% (78/147) in the control arm (unadjusted OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0-2.6). These improvements were equitable, being independent of household poverty. CONCLUSION: A tuberculosis-specific, socioeconomic support intervention increased uptake of tuberculosis preventive therapy and tuberculosis treatment success and is being evaluated in the Community Randomized Evaluation of a Socioeconomic Intervention to Prevent TB (CRESIPT) project.
Assuntos
Antibioticoprofilaxia/métodos , Antituberculosos/administração & dosagem , Família , Apoio Social , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Antibioticoprofilaxia/economia , Antituberculosos/economia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Educação em Saúde/organização & administração , Visita Domiciliar , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento/organização & administração , Assistência Médica/organização & administração , Peru , Pobreza , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Poverty drives tuberculosis (TB) rates but the approach to TB control has been disproportionately biomedical. In 2015, the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy explicitly identified the need to address the social determinants of TB through socio-economic interventions. However, evidence concerning poverty reduction and cost mitigation strategies is limited. The research described in this article, based on the 2016 Royal College of Physicians Linacre Lecture, aimed to address this knowledge gap. The research was divided into two phases: the first phase was an analysis of a cohort study identifying TB-related costs of TB-affected households and creating a clinically relevant threshold above which those costs became catastrophic; the second was the design, implementation and evaluation of a household randomised controlled evaluation of socio-economic support to improve access to preventive therapy, increase TB cure, and mitigate the effects of catastrophic costs. The first phase showed TB remains a disease of people living in poverty - 'free' TB care was unaffordable for impoverished TB-affected households and incurring catastrophic costs was associated with as many adverse TB treatment outcomes (including death, failure of treatment, lost to follow-up and TB recurrence) as multidrug resistant (MDR) TB. The second phase showed that, in TB-affected households receiving socio-economic support, household contacts were more likely to start and adhere to TB preventive therapy, TB patients were more likely to be cured and households were less likely to incur catastrophic costs. In impoverished Peruvian shantytowns, poverty remains inextricably linked with TB and incurring catastrophic costs predicted adverse TB treatment outcome. A novel socio-economic support intervention increased TB preventive therapy uptake, improved TB treatment success and reduced catastrophic costs. The impact of the intervention on TB control is currently being evaluated by the Community Randomized Evaluation of a Socio-economic Intervention to Prevent TB (CRESIPT) study.