Delayed Rise of Oral Fluid Antibodies, Elevated BMI, and Absence of Early Fever Correlate With Longer Time to SARS-CoV-2 RNA Clearance in a Longitudinally Sampled Cohort of COVID-19 Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Sustained molecular detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in the upper respiratory tract (URT) in mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is common. We sought to identify host and immune determinants of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. METHODS: Ninety-five symptomatic outpatients self-collected midturbinate nasal, oropharyngeal (OP), and gingival crevicular fluid (oral fluid) samples at home and in a research clinic a median of 6 times over 1-3 months. Samples were tested for viral RNA, virus culture, and SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronavirus antibodies, and associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Viral RNA clearance, as measured by SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), in 507 URT samples occurred a median (interquartile range) 33.5 (17-63.5) days post-symptom onset. Sixteen nasal-OP samples collected 2-11 days post-symptom onset were virus culture positive out of 183 RT-PCR-positive samples tested. All participants but 1 with positive virus culture were negative for concomitant oral fluid anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The mean time to first antibody detection in oral fluid was 8-13 days post-symptom onset. A longer time to first detection of oral fluid anti-SARS-CoV-2 S antibodies (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-0.99; P = .020) and body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 (aHR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.78; P = .009) were independently associated with a longer time to SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA clearance. Fever as 1 of first 3 COVID-19 symptoms correlated with shorter time to viral RNA clearance (aHR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.02-4.18; P = .044). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that delayed rise of oral fluid SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, elevated BMI, and absence of early fever are independently associated with delayed URT viral RNA clearance.

Rate of sepsis hospitalizations after misdiagnosis in adult emergency department patients: a look-forward analysis with administrative claims data using Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) methodology in an integrated health system.

OBJECTIVES: Delays in sepsis diagnosis can increase morbidity and mortality. Previously, we performed a Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) "look-back" analysis to identify symptoms at risk for delayed sepsis diagnosis. We found treat-and-release emergency department (ED) encounters for fluid and electrolyte disorders (FED) and altered mental status (AMS) were associated with downstream sepsis hospitalizations. In this "look-forward" analysis, we measure the potential misdiagnosis-related harm rate for sepsis among patients with these symptoms. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health record and claims data from Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (2013-2018). Patients ≥18 years with ≥1 treat-and-release ED encounter for FED or AMS were included. Observed greater than expected sepsis hospitalizations within 30 days of ED treat-and-release encounters were considered potential misdiagnosis-related harms. Temporal analyses were employed to differentiate case and comparison (superficial injury/contusion ED encounters) cohorts. RESULTS: There were 4,549 treat-and-release ED encounters for FED or AMS, 26 associated with a sepsis hospitalization in the next 30 days. The observed (0.57%) minus expected (0.13%) harm rate was 0.44% (absolute) and 4.5-fold increased over expected (relative). There was a spike in sepsis hospitalizations in the week following FED/AMS ED visits. There were fewer sepsis hospitalizations and no spike in admissions in the week following superficial injury/contusion ED visits. Potentially misdiagnosed patients were older and more medically complex. CONCLUSIONS: Potential misdiagnosis-related harms from sepsis are infrequent but measurable using SPADE. This look-forward analysis validated our previous look-back study, demonstrating the SPADE approach can be used to study infectious disease syndromes.

Delayed rise of oral fluid antibodies, elevated BMI, and absence of early fever correlate with longer time to SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance in an longitudinally sampled cohort of COVID-19 outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Sustained molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the upper respiratory tract (URT) in mild to moderate COVID-19 is common. We sought to identify host and immune determinants of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. METHODS: Ninety-five outpatients self-collected mid-turbinate nasal, oropharyngeal (OP), and gingival crevicular fluid (oral fluid) samples at home and in a research clinic a median of 6 times over 1-3 months. Samples were tested for viral RNA, virus culture, and SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronavirus antibodies, and associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Viral RNA clearance, as measured by SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, in 507 URT samples occurred a median (IQR) 33.5 (17-63.5) days post-symptom onset. Sixteen nasal-OP samples collected 2-11 days post-symptom onset were virus culture positive out of 183 RT-PCR positive samples tested. All participants but one with positive virus culture were negative for concomitant oral fluid anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The mean time to first antibody detection in oral fluid was 8-13 days post-symptom onset. A longer time to first detection of oral fluid anti-SARS-CoV-2 S antibodies (aHR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-0.99, p=0.020) and BMI ≥ 25kg/m 2 (aHR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18-0.78, p=0.009) were independently associated with a longer time to SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA clearance. Fever as one of first three COVID-19 symptoms correlated with shorter time to viral RNA clearance (aHR 2.06, 95% CI 1.02-4.18, p=0.044). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that delayed rise of oral fluid SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, elevated BMI, and absence of early fever are independently associated with delayed URT viral RNA clearance.

Antecedent treat-and-release diagnoses prior to sepsis hospitalization among adult emergency department patients: a look-back analysis employing insurance claims data using Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) methodology.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify delays in early pre-sepsis diagnosis in emergency departments (ED) using the Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) approach. METHODS: SPADE methodology was employed using electronic health record and claims data from Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (KPMAS). Study cohort included KPMAS members ≥18 years with ≥1 sepsis hospitalization 1/1/2013-12/31/2018. A look-back analysis identified treat-and-release ED visits in the month prior to sepsis hospitalizations. Top 20 diagnoses associated with these ED visits were identified; two diagnosis categories were distinguished as being linked to downstream sepsis hospitalizations. Observed-to-expected (O:E) and temporal analyses were performed to validate the symptom selection; results were contrasted to a comparison group. Demographics of patients that did and did not experience sepsis misdiagnosis were compared. RESULTS: There were 3,468 sepsis hospitalizations during the study period and 766 treat-and-release ED visits in the month prior to hospitalization. Patients discharged from the ED with fluid and electrolyte disorders (FED) and altered mental status (AMS) were most likely to have downstream sepsis hospitalizations (O:E ratios of 2.66 and 2.82, respectively). Temporal analyses revealed that these symptoms were overrepresented and temporally clustered close to the hospitalization date. Approximately 2% of sepsis hospitalizations were associated with prior FED or AMS ED visits. CONCLUSIONS: Treat-and-release ED encounters for FED and AMS may represent harbingers for downstream sepsis hospitalizations. The SPADE approach can be used to develop performance measures that identify pre-sepsis.

The Clinical Course of COVID-19 in the Outpatient Setting: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been insufficiently characterized. To determine the progression of disease and determinants of hospitalization, we conducted a prospective cohort study. METHODS: Outpatient adults with positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction results for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were recruited by phone between April 21 and July 23, 2020, after receiving outpatient or emergency department testing within a large health network in Maryland, United States. Symptoms were collected by participants on days 0, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28, and portable pulse oximeter oxygen saturation (SaO2), heart rate, and temperature were collected for 15 consecutive days. Baseline demographics, comorbid conditions, and vital signs were evaluated for risk of subsequent hospitalization using negative binomial and logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 118 SARS-CoV-2-infected outpatients, the median age (interquartile range [IQR]) was 56.0 (50.0-63.0) years, and 50 (42.4%) were male. Among individuals in the first week of illness (n = 61), the most common symptoms included weakness/fatigue (65.7%), cough (58.8%), headache (45.6%), chills (38.2%), and anosmia (27.9%). Participants returned to their usual health a median (IQR) of 20 (13-38) days from symptom onset, and 66.0% of respondents were at their usual health during the fourth week of illness. Over 28 days, 10.9% presented to the emergency department and 7.6% required hospitalization. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the initial home SaO2 for predicting subsequent hospitalization was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.73-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms often persisted but uncommonly progressed to hospitalization among outpatients with COVID-19. Home SaO2 may be a helpful tool to stratify risk of hospitalization.

Prevalence of Co-infection at the Time of Hospital Admission in COVID-19 Patients, A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infections may complicate viral pneumonias. Recent reports suggest that bacterial co-infection at time of presentation is uncommon in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, estimates were based on microbiology tests alone. We sought to develop and apply consensus definitions, incorporating clinical criteria to better understand the rate of co-infections and antibiotic use in COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 1016 adult patients admitted to 5 hospitals in the Johns Hopkins Health System between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, with COVID-19 were evaluated. Adjudication of co-infection using definitions developed by a multidisciplinary team for this study was performed. Both respiratory and common nonrespiratory co-infections were assessed. The definition of bacterial community-acquired pneumonia (bCAP) included proven (clinical, laboratory, and radiographic criteria plus microbiologic diagnosis), probable (clinical, laboratory, and radiographic criteria without microbiologic diagnosis), and possible (not all clinical, laboratory, and radiographic criteria met) categories. Clinical characteristics and antimicrobial use were assessed in the context of the consensus definitions. RESULTS: Bacterial respiratory co-infections were infrequent (1.2%); 1 patient had proven bCAP, and 11 (1.1%) had probable bCAP. Two patients (0.2%) had viral respiratory co-infections. Although 69% of patients received antibiotics for pneumonia, the majority were stopped within 48 hours in patients with possible or no evidence of bCAP. The most common nonrespiratory infection was urinary tract infection (present in 3% of the cohort). CONCLUSIONS: Using multidisciplinary consensus definitions, proven or probable bCAP was uncommon in adults hospitalized due to COVID-19, as were other nonrespiratory bacterial infections. Empiric antibiotic use was high, highlighting the need to enhance antibiotic stewardship in the treatment of viral pneumonias.

Outpatient Parenteral Antimicrobial Therapy in the Time of COVID-19: The Urgent Need for Better Insurance Coverage.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are placing unprecedented pressure on every health care system. Patients who require weeks of intravenous antibiotic therapy after hospital discharge due to severe bacterial infections, generally referred to as outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT), are at increased risk for contracting and/or transmitting COVID-19 due to extensive contact with the health care system. To reduce the risk of COVID-19 among this vulnerable patient population, providers overseeing OPAT care need to consider the relative safety of the different OPAT sites of care. Home-based OPAT should be emphasized to minimize hospital stays and prevent skilled nursing facility admissions. Medicare reimbursement policies need to urgently change to provide comprehensive coverage of home infusion services.

Patient Experiences With Outpatient Parenteral Antibiotic Therapy: Results of a Patient Survey Comparing Skilled Nursing Facilities and Home Infusion.

OBJECTIVE: This work compares overall patient satisfaction with outpatient parenteral antibiotic therarpy (OPAT) care across the skilled nursing facility (SNF) and home healthcare company (HHC) settings; identifies barriers to patient satisfaction in OPAT; and develops a model for OPAT patient satisfaction that can help programs improve the patient experience across both sites of care. METHOD: We developed and administered a patient experience survey to 100 patients returning to a single clinic for follow up. The survey consisted of 15 items (Likert scale, multiple choice, and free text responses). Patient characteristics and responses to the survey for patients who received care at home and at SNFs were analyzed and compared. RESULTS: Of the 100 patients surveyed, 98 completed the survey. Overall, HHC patients were satisfied more with their care than patients in SNFs, with a greater proportion stating they would recommend the site to others (71.7% for HHC and 32.7% for SNFs, P < .01). Patients in SNFs had a larger number of complaints about lapses in medical care, infection prevention, and the physical environment than HHC patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patient satisfaction in OPAT is higher for home infusion than SNFs. In order to improve the patient experience, OPAT programs need to engage stakeholders in HHCs and SNFs to improve communication and care delivery.

Impact of the implementation of a nurse-managed outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT) system in Baltimore: a case study demonstrating cost savings and reduction in re-admission rates.

Objectives: Evidence supports the safety and effectiveness of outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT). A registered nurse (RN)-managed multidisciplinary team OPAT model was implemented at our hospital. We evaluated the impact of the new OPAT model on readmissions during OPAT and other core OPAT processes. Methods: All potential OPAT cases from 1 November 2013 to 31 June 2017 discharged from the Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center were followed up in a retrospective cohort study. Relevant clinical and patient characteristics were collected for the first OPAT course per patient. The primary outcome was all-cause readmission to any facility part of the Johns Hopkins Health System within 30 days of OPAT discharge. Proportions of OPAT patients readmitted before and after the implementation of the new OPAT model were compared. A log-binomial regression was used to compare the risk of readmission, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, site of OPAT care, opioid dependence and OPAT treatment duration. Results: Five hundred and seventeen OPAT patients were included in the analysis; 51.1% were discharged after the implementation of the new OPAT model. Readmission rates decreased from 20.2% to 13.3% following the RN-managed OPAT programme (P = 0.04). The results of the adjusted model indicated that nurse management was associated with a 39% reduction in the risk of readmission (adjusted relative risk 0.61; 95% CI 0.41-0.91; P = 0.01). Our financial evaluation estimated that the reduction in readmissions achieved by the RN-managed model saved the hospital $649 416 over 15 months. Conclusions: The RN-managed OPAT programme was associated with a significant reduction in readmissions.

Balancing with positive feedback: the case for discontinuous control.

Experimental observations indicate that positive feedback plays an important role for maintaining human balance in the upright position. This observation is used to motivate an investigation of a simple switch-like controller for postural sway in which corrective movements are made only when the vertical displacement angle exceeds a certain threshold. This mechanism is shown to be consistent with the experimentally observed variations in the two-point correlation for human postural sway. Analysis of first-passage times for this model suggests that this control strategy may slow escape by taking advantage of two intrinsic properties of a stochastic unstable first-order delay differential equation: (i) time delay and (ii) the possibility that the dynamics can be 'temporarily confined' near the origin.