The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100.

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES: The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range. METHODS: To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100. RESULTS: The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios. INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION: While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100.

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES: The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range. METHODS: To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100. RESULTS: The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios. INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION: While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

Reconstructing the post-glacial spread of the sand fly Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi, 1908 (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Europe.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Phlebotominae) are the principal vectors of Leishmania spp. (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae). In Central Europe, Phlebotomus mascittii is the predominant species, but largely understudied. To better understand factors driving its current distribution, we infer patterns of genetic diversity by testing for signals of population expansion based on two mitochondrial genes and model current and past climate and habitat suitability for seven post-glacial maximum periods, taking 19 climatic variables into account. Consequently, we elucidate their connections by environmental-geographical network analysis. Most analyzed populations share a main haplotype tracing back to a single glacial maximum refuge area on the Mediterranean coasts of South France, which is supported by network analysis. The rapid range expansion of Ph. mascittii likely started in the early mid-Holocene epoch until today and its spread possibly followed two routes. The first one was through northern France to Germany and then Belgium, and the second across the Ligurian coast through present-day Slovenia to Austria, toward the northern Balkans. Here we present a combined approach to reveal glacial refugia and post-glacial spread of Ph. mascittii and observed discrepancies between the modelled and the current known distribution might reveal yet overlooked populations and potential further spread.

Indicators for climate change-driven urban health impact assessment.

Climate change can cause multiply potential health issues in urban areas, which is the most susceptible environment in terms of the presently increasing climate volatility. Urban greening strategies make an important part of the adaptation strategies which can ameliorate the negative impacts of climate change. It was aimed to study the potential impacts of different kinds of greenings against the adverse effects of climate change, including waterborne, vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, and surface ozone concentration in a medium-sized Hungarian city. As greening strategies, large and pocket parks were considered, based on our novel location identifier algorithm for climate risk minimization. A method based on publicly available data sources including satellite pictures, climate scenarios and urban macrostructure has been developed to evaluate the health-related indicator patterns in cities. The modelled future- and current patterns of the indicators have been compared. The results can help the understanding of the possible future state of the studied indicators and the development of adequate greening strategies. Another outcome of the study is that it is not the type of health indicator but its climate sensitivity that determines the extent to which it responds to temperature rises and how effective greening strategies are in addressing the expected problem posed by the factor.

The δ18O-inferred thermal reconstruction for the Pleistocene based on the modification of existing glacial and interglacial paleoclimatic models.

The determination of the climatic factors related to the Paleolithic archaeological, or fossils sites of the late Neogene and Quaternary periods would require the knowledge of all the fossil specimen's age-site-related paleoclimatic factors. Because the necessary high-temporal resolution georeferenced, paleoclimatic models do not exist for most of the periods of the Pliocene and Pleistocene epoch, at the first step, the former climatic conditions should be reconstructed according to the age-site pair data. The idea of the developed method is, that using the foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ18O) ratio values, the available Pleistocene glacial and interglacial paleoclimatic model pairs can provide the bases for the reconstruction of the former thermal conditions for any period during the Pleistocene epoch. In a technical sense, the approach is based on the observation that the changes in the Cenozoic δ18O record can correspond with the global mean temperature alterations. Determining the cold and warm periods-related δ18O ratio values, new, georeferenced paleoclimatic models can be produced. The main steps of the developed method are as follows:•Determination of the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) which corresponds to the former thermal conditions of a site.•Using a scaling technique to create new, approximate climate maps by changing glacial and interglacial maps.•Reconstruction of the monthly mean temperature values based on the thermal conditions of the warmest and the coldest quarters.

The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change.

It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.

The alteration of the suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum due to climate change in Iran.

Leishmaniasis is the most important parasitic infection in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis for the 21st century in the country. Temperature, precipitation, and aridity-nature distribution limiting bioclimatic variables were involved in the ecological modelling. The altitudinal trends were considered by using 100 m bars. In Iran, the topographical patterns strongly impact the changing patterns of the suitability of L. infantum due to climate change. In general, climate change will decrease the parasite's suitability in the areas at low altitudes and increase in the middle and higher elevation regions. Increasing values are mainly predicted in the West, the decreasing suitability values in the East part of Iran. The altitudinal shifts and the reduced spatial distribution of L. infantum in the arid regions of East and Central Iran were modelled.

Identification of sampling points for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the sewage system.

A suitable tool for monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is to identify potential sampling points in the wastewater collection system that can be used to monitor the distribution of COVID-19 disease affected clusters within a city. The applicability of the developed methodology is presented through the description of the 72,837 population equivalent wastewater collection system of the city of Nagykanizsa, Hungary and the results of the analytical and epidemiological measurements of the wastewater samples. The wastewater sampling was conducted during the 3rd wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. It was found that the overlap between the road system and the wastewater network is high, it is 82 %. It was showed that the proposed methodological approach, using the tools of network science, determines confidently the zones of the wastewater collection system and provides the ideal monitoring points in order to provide the best sampling resolution in urban areas. The strength of the presented approach is that it estimates the network based on publicly available information. It was concluded that the number of zones or sampling points can be chosen based on relevant epidemiological intervention and mitigation strategies. The algorithm allows for continuous effective monitoring of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 in small-sized cities.

Aedes aegypti in the Mediterranean container ports at the time of climate change: A time bomb on the mosquito vector map of Europe.

In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20th century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19th and the early 20th century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.

Spatial pattern identification (SPI) for ecological modelling.

There is a growing interest to understand the static and dynamic components of population ranges. In general, the frequently used environmental forecasting and evaluating methods of occurrences like niche-based statistical processes are based on the static evaluation of the causative environmental variables. These techniques do not consider that natural populations of species form the systems of complex, connected networks. The aim of this study was to suggest a possible solution to this methodological problem. The proposed variable pattern comparison tool (Spatial pattern identification (SPI) for ecological modelling) provides an opportunity of deep examination of spatial connections between environmental variables and occurrence data in GIS models. The idea of the developed method is, that the network characteristic of the primary point-like occurrence data provides statistically evaluable new and valuable information about the nature and reasons for the interconnections of populations. In technical sense, the approach is based on which the key variables of the models can be identified, thus establishing the targeted variable selection and possible solutions for model reduction.•Exploring the relationships between variables of a GIS model.•Static and pattern similarity-based comparison of the model variables.•Identification of key variables of the model and model reduction.•The network allows the understanding intra- and interspecific population connections.

The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region.

Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.

The potential future change of the suitability patterns of six leishmaniasis vectors in Iran.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis are endemic in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of five confirmed and one suspected leishmaniasis vector Phlebotomus species resident in the country. METHODS: The potential present and future suitability patterns of the sandfly species in Iran were modelled using climate envelope forecasting method for the reference period 1970-2000 and the future period 2041-2060. RESULTS: The reference period climate of Iran seemed to be the most suitable for Phlebotomus perfiliewi and Phlebotomus tobbi and less suitable for Phlebotomus simili, while Phlebotomus neglectus, Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti showed intermediate values among the studied sandfly species. The modelled changes in the suitability values show a similar pattern in the case of the six species, even the exact magnitude of the modelled values varied. The model results indicate that climate change could decrease the sandfly habitability in the present-day arid regions in Central Iran. The Iranian sandfly populations will move to higher elevation regions, and the suitability values of the sandfly species are predicted to increase in the foothills of the mountainous regions in the northern and the western part of the country. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The increase of the maximally suitable areas in Iran was found which was predicted to be accompanied by the parallel shrinkage of the sandfly-inhabited areas in the arid regions of the country. Topographical conditions could strongly influence the suitability patterns of the vectors in Iran.

Investigation of the vulnerability of a partly covered karst feature in Veszprém, Hungary.

Karst aquifers represent the most important renewable sources of drinking water. Because anthropogenic influences threaten the integrity of karst aquifers, it is important to determine the soil erosion and karst denudation rates. In order to study the complex signs of degradation processes of the karst, a paleodoline (paleo-polje) was selected near to the county seat Veszprém, Hungary. It was found that gamma radiation measurements can be a useful tool to detect the level of soil erosion since the low gamma radiation indicates the surface proximity of the carbonate bedrock. The level of gamma radiation also predicts the potential agricultural usability of a site. Both the patterns of contamination and the erosion attack zone are strongly defined by the relief. The gullies and the deepest parts of the karstic landscape are the traps of organic materials and pollutants. The amounts of 40K and its decay products originate from the covering sediment and negatively correlate with the soil depth. In the case of covered karsts, the measuring of the concentration of radionuclides and field gamma-ray dose measurement together can characterize the general horizontal and vertical trends of soil erosion, the potential land use, and the vegetation.

Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species.

The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (Ps), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.

The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle. METHODS: Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route. RESULTS: The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.

The changing distribution of Leishmania infantum Nicolle, 1908 and its Mediterranean sandfly vectors in the last 140 kys.

The understanding of the effects of past climatic changes on the distribution of vector arthropods can strongly support the understanding of the future potential impact of anthropogenic climatic change on the geographical risk of vector-borne diseases. The zoogeographical patterns of the European sandfly vectors may suffer the continuously changing climate of the last 140 kys. The former range of L. infantum and six Phlebotomus species were modelled for the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene Periods. It was found that the potential distribution of the parasite was much smaller in the Last Glacial Period L. infantum mainly could persist in the western shelves of the Mediterranean Sea. West and East Mediterranean sandfly species inhabited partly distinct refugia. The Apennine Peninsula, Sicily and the Iberian refugium formed a habitat chain along with the coastal areas of the West Mediterranean Basin. There was no direct connection between the Eastern and the Western sandfly refugia in the last 140 kys. The modelled distribution of sandfly taxa for the Middle Holocene Period can explain the relict populations of sandfly taxa in such Central European countries. The former genetic studies strongly confirm the existence of the modelled glacial refugees.

Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary.

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment.

Influence of physical factors of apartments, educational attainment, nationality and unemployment on the number of Cimex lectularius inquiries.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the effect of physical factors of apartments, educational attainment, nationality and unemployment on the number and distribution of bed bug call inquiries in Budapest, Hungary. METHODS: Educational attainment, apartment conditions, the level of unemployment, the ratio of dependent people in the households, nationality and proportion of dependent people were selected as regressors. Monthly ambient temperature values were correlated with monthly call inquiry numbers. RESULTS: Downtown units showed the highest call inquiry rates. Significant positive correlations were found between the call inquiry rates and the ratio of low educational attainment inhabitants (people with ≤ 8 school classes), the rate of small floor area apartments (apartment area < 29 m2), proportions of the comfortless apartments in the district housing stock and proportion of unemployed people on district level as well as proportion of gypsy inhabitants in the districts. Significant negative correlation was found between the call inquiry rates and the average area (m2) of apartments. The number of call inquiries showed expressed, temperature-depending seasonality between March and December 2015. In multiple regression analyses, the level of unemployment and proportion of gypsy inhabitants showed significant correlations with the rate of bed bug call inquiries. CONCLUSIONS: Apartment conditions, educational attainment, nationality, unemployment, and the city structure have notable influence on the occurrence of bed bug call inquiries on urban level, although the level of unemployment and nationality seem to be the strongest factors. The annual changes of the ambient temperature have effect on the call inquiry rate.

Exploration of the heterogeneous effect of climate change on ozone concentration in an urban environment.

Ozone is a significant causative agent of mortality in cities. Urban environments are expressly vulnerable to global warming because of the extensive emission of air pollutants with urban heat island effect enhancing much rapidly the ozone concentration than in the less urbanized regions. This effect previously was not studied in local scale. It was hypothesized that climate change will cause heterogenic increase of ozone concentration in the different parts of the cities. To study this effect, the near-surface ozone concentration of 10 points of a Hungarian city was measured and modeled. At first step, the local correlations between solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and the near surface ozone concentrations at 3 m height were determined, specifying the local ozone-producing conditions. Then, based on the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report, the future seasonal near-surface ozone concentrations were modeled. Based on the model, it was determined that climate change will result in a heterogenic increase of near-surface ozone concentration.

Which mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are candidates for DNA extraction in forensic practice?

Mosquitoes can be of importance in forensic context as a source of the perpretator's DNA. The aim of this study was to find how can we optimize the selection of appropriate mosquito individuals. The study was based on the data of 177833 trapped female mosquitoes and 105236 individuals which were collected directly from human skin. The mean human-specific biting willingness value of Aedes species was the highest (mean: 0.8). Significant differences were found between the human-specific biting willingness value variances of Aedes and Culex (p=0.0117) and barely significant differences between Anopheles and Culiseta (p = 0.5412), as well as between Aedes and Culiseta genera (p = 0.0562). Culiseta species showed the lowest human-specific biting willingness values (mean = 0.16). The mean of the human-specific biting willingness values of univoltine and multivoltine mosquitoes were 0.43 and 0.37 which means no significant difference between the variances of the two groups (p = 0.625). The mean of the human-specific biting willingness values of the predominantly mammal biting and non-mammal biting mosquitoes were 0.45 and 0.03 with a very significant difference (p<0.0001). Only five mosquito species have a relative biting risk index equal or more than 0.03 in Hungary, namely of Aedes vexans (0.43), Ochlerotatus cantans: (0.25), Ochlerotatus sticticus: (0.11), Culex modestus: (0.07) and Aedes cinereus: (0.03). It can be concluded that the mean human-specific biting willingness of mosquitoes depends on the genera, the host preference and it is independent of the annual number of generations or the breeding habitat preference. The relative biting risk index reflects the actual and annual relative abundances and the usefulness and availability of a mosquito for legal purposes reducing the financial and time requirements of the investigations.