The importance of expert selection when identifying threatened ecosystems.

Identifying threatened ecosystem types is fundamental to conservation and management decision-making. When identification relies on expert judgment, decisions are vulnerable to inconsistent outcomes and can lack transparency. We elicited judgements of the occurrence of a widespread, critically endangered Australian ecosystem from a diverse pool of 83 experts. We asked 4 questions. First, how many experts are required to reliably conclude that the ecosystem is present? Second, how many experts are required to build a reliable model for predicting ecosystem presence? Third, given expert selection can narrow the range opinions, if enough experts are selected, do selection strategies affect model predictions? Finally, does a diverse selection of experts provide better model predictions? We used power and sample size calculations with a finite population of 200 experts to calculate the number of experts required to reliably assess ecosystem presence in a theoretical scenario. We then used boosted regression trees to model expert elicitation of 122 plots based on real-world data. For a reliable consensus (90% probability of correctly identifying presence and absence) in a relatively certain scenario (85% probability of occurrence), at least 17 experts were required. More experts were required when occurrence was less certain, and fewer were needed if permissible error rates were relaxed. In comparison, only ∼20 experts were required for a reliable model that could predict for a range of scenarios. Expert selection strategies changed modeled outcomes, often overpredicting presence and underestimating uncertainty. However, smaller but diverse pools of experts produced outcomes similar to a model built from all contributing experts. Combining elicited judgements from a diverse pool of experts in a model-based decision support tool provided an efficient aggregation of a broad range of expertise. Such models can improve the transparency and consistency of conservation and management decision-making, especially when ecosystems are defined based on complex criteria.

La importancia de seleccionar expertos para identificar ecosistemas amenazados Resumen La identificación de los tipos de ecosistemas amenazados es fundamental para decidir sobre su conservación y gestión. Cuando la identificación se basa en la opinión de expertos, las decisiones son vulnerables a resultados incoherentes y pueden carecer de transparencia. Recabamos la opinión de 83 expertos sobre la presencia de un ecosistema australiano extendido y en peligro crítico. Se plantearon cuatro preguntas: ¿Cuántos expertos son necesarios para concluir con fiabilidad que el ecosistema está presente?; ¿Cuántos expertos son necesarios para construir un modelo fiable de predicción de la presencia del ecosistema?; ya que la selección de expertos puede reducir el rango de opiniones, si se seleccionan suficientes expertos, ¿afectan las estrategias de selección a las predicciones del modelo; y ¿Una selección diversa de expertos proporciona mejores predicciones del modelo? Utilizamos cálculos de potencia y tamaño de muestra con una población finita de 200 expertos para obtener el número de expertos necesarios para evaluar de forma fiable la presencia de ecosistemas en un escenario teórico. Después usamos árboles de regresión reforzada para modelar la consulta de expertos de 122 parcelas basadas en datos del mundo real. Para obtener un consenso fiable (90% de probabilidad de identificar correctamente la presencia y la ausencia) en un escenario relativamente seguro (85% de probabilidad de ocurrencia), se necesitaban al menos 17 expertos. Se necesitaban más expertos cuando la ocurrencia era menos segura, y menos si se relajaban los porcentajes de error permitidos. En comparación, sólo se necesitaron unos 20 expertos para obtener un modelo fiable que pudiera predecir una serie de escenarios. Las estrategias de selección de expertos modificaron los resultados modelados, a menudo con sobre predicción de la presencia y subestimación de la incertidumbre. Sin embargo, los grupos de expertos más pequeños pero diversos produjeron resultados similares a los de un modelo construido a partir de todos los expertos participantes. La combinación de las opiniones obtenidas de un grupo diverso de expertos en una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones basada en un modelo proporcionó una agregación eficiente de una amplia gama de conocimientos. Estos modelos pueden mejorar la transparencia y coherencia de la toma de decisiones en materia de conservación y gestión, especialmente cuando los ecosistemas se definen en función de criterios complejos.

Trends in wildlife rehabilitation rescues and animal fate across a six-year period in New South Wales, Australia.

Globally, millions of animals are rescued and rehabilitated by wildlife carers each year. Information gathered in this process is useful for uncovering threats to native wildlife, particularly those from anthropogenic causes. However, few studies using rehabilitation data include a diverse range of fauna, cover large geographical areas, and consider long-term trends. Furthermore, few studies have statistically modelled causes of why animals come into care, and what are their chances of survival. This study draws on 469,553 rescues reported over six years by wildlife rehabilitators for 688 species of bird, reptile, and mammal from New South Wales, Australia. For birds and mammals, 'abandoned/orphaned' and 'collisions with vehicles' were the dominant causes for rescue, however for reptiles this was 'unsuitable environment'. Overall rescue numbers were lowest in winter, and highest in spring, with six-times more 'abandoned/orphaned' individuals in spring than winter. Of the 364,461 rescues for which the fate of an animal was known, 92% fell within two categories: 'dead', 'died or euthanased' (54.8% of rescues with known fate) and animals that recovered and were subsequently released (37.1% of rescues with known fate). Modelling of the fate of animals indicated that the likelihood of animal survival (i.e. chance of: being released, left and observed, or permanent care), was related to the cause for rescue. In general, causes for rescue involving physical trauma (collisions, attacks, etc.) had a much lower likelihood of animals surviving than other causes such as 'unsuitable environment', 'abandoned/orphaned', and this also showed some dependence upon whether the animal was a bird, reptile, or mammal. This suggests rehabilitation efforts could be focused on particular threats or taxa to maximise success, depending on the desired outcomes. The results illustrate the sheer volume of work undertaken by rehabilitation volunteers and professionals toward both animal welfare and to the improvement of wildlife rehabilitation in the future.

The pervasive and multifaceted influence of biocrusts on water in the world's drylands.

The capture and use of water are critically important in drylands, which collectively constitute Earth's largest biome. Drylands will likely experience lower and more unreliable rainfall as climatic conditions change over the next century. Dryland soils support a rich community of microphytic organisms (biocrusts), which are critically important because they regulate the delivery and retention of water. Yet despite their hydrological significance, a global synthesis of their effects on hydrology is lacking. We synthesized 2,997 observations from 109 publications to explore how biocrusts affected five hydrological processes (times to ponding and runoff, early [sorptivity] and final [infiltration] stages of water flow into soil, and the rate or volume of runoff) and two hydrological outcomes (moisture storage, sediment production). We found that increasing biocrust cover reduced the time for water to pond on the surface (-40%) and commence runoff (-33%), and reduced infiltration (-34%) and sediment production (-68%). Greater biocrust cover had no significant effect on sorptivity or runoff rate/amount, but increased moisture storage (+14%). Infiltration declined most (-56%) at fine scales, and moisture storage was greatest (+36%) at large scales. Effects of biocrust type (cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, mixed), soil texture (sand, loam, clay), and climatic zone (arid, semiarid, dry subhumid) were nuanced. Our synthesis provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands. This information is critical to improve our capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.

Multiple trade-offs regulate the effects of woody plant removal on biodiversity and ecosystem functions in global rangelands.

Woody plant encroachment is a major land management issue. Woody removal often aims to restore the original grassy ecosystem, but few studies have assessed the role of woody removal on ecosystem functions and biodiversity at global scales. We collected data from 140 global studies and evaluated how different woody plant removal methods affected biodiversity (plant and animal diversity) and ecosystem functions (plant production, hydrological function, soil carbon) across global rangelands. Our results indicate that the impact of removal is strongly context dependent, varying with the specific response variable, removal method, and traits of the target species. Over all treatments, woody plant removal increased grass biomass and total groundstorey diversity. Physical and chemical removal methods increased grass biomass and total groundstorey biomass (i.e., non-woody plants, including grass biomass), but burning reduced animal diversity. The impact of different treatment methods declined with time since removal, particularly for total groundstorey biomass. Removing pyramid-shaped woody plants increased total groundstorey biomass and hydrological function but reduced total groundstorey diversity. Environmental context (e.g., aridity and soil texture) indirectly controlled the effect of removal on biomass and biodiversity by influencing plant traits such as plant shape, allelopathic, or roots types. Our study demonstrates that a one-size-fits-all approach to woody plant removal is not appropriate, and that consideration of woody plant identity, removal method, and environmental context is critical for optimizing removal outcomes. Applying this knowledge is fundamental for maintaining diverse and functional rangeland ecosystems as we move toward a drier and more variable climate.

Effects of climate legacies on above- and belowground community assembly.

The role of climatic legacies in regulating community assembly of above- and belowground species in terrestrial ecosystems remains largely unexplored and poorly understood. Here, we report on two separate regional and continental empirical studies, including >500 locations, aiming to identify the relative importance of climatic legacies (climatic anomaly over the last 20,000 years) compared to current climates in predicting the relative abundance of ecological clusters formed by species strongly co-occurring within two independent above- and belowground networks. Climatic legacies explained a significant portion of the variation in the current community assembly of terrestrial ecosystems (up to 15.4%) that could not be accounted for by current climate, soil properties, and management. Changes in the relative abundance of ecological clusters linked to climatic legacies (e.g., past temperature) showed the potential to indirectly alter other clusters, suggesting cascading effects. Our work illustrates the role of climatic legacies in regulating ecosystem community assembly and provides further insights into possible winner and loser community assemblies under global change scenarios.

Competition drives the response of soil microbial diversity to increased grazing by vertebrate herbivores.

Scientists have largely neglected the effects of grazing on soil microbial communities despite their importance as drivers of ecosystem functions and services. We hypothesized that changes in soil properties resulting from grazing regulate the diversity of soil microbes by releasing/suppressing subordinate microbial taxa via competition. To test this, we examined how intensity of vertebrate herbivores influences the diversity and composition of soil bacteria and fungi at 216 soil samples from 54 sites across four microsites. Increasing grazing intensity reduced soil carbon, suppressing the dominant bacterial phylum Actinobacteria (indirectly promoting bacterial diversity) and increasing the dominant fungal phylum Ascomycetes (indirectly reducing fungal diversity). Our data provide novel evidence that grazing modulates the diversity and composition of soil microbes via increases or reductions in competition by dominant taxa. Our results suggest that grazing can potentially alter soil function by altering microbial community composition, providing a clear link between grazing management, carbon availability and ecosystem functions.