Enhancing multifunctionality in European boreal forests: The potential role of Triad landscape functional zoning.

Land-use policies aim at enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources. The Triad approach has been suggested to balance the social, ecological, and economic demands of forested landscapes. The core idea is to enhance multifunctionality at the landscape level by allocating landscape zones with specific management priorities, i.e., production (intensive management), multiple use (extensive management), and conservation (forest reserves). We tested the efficiency of the Triad approach and identified the respective proportion of above-mentioned zones needed to enhance multifunctionality in Finnish forest landscapes. Through a simulation and optimization framework, we explored a range of scenarios of the three zones and evaluated how changing their relative proportion (each ranging from 0 to 100%) impacted landscape multifunctionality, measured by various biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. The results show that maximizing multifunctionality required around 20% forest area managed intensively, 50% extensively, and 30% allocated to forest reserves. In our case studies, such landscape zoning represented a good compromise between the studied multifunctionality components and maintained 61% of the maximum achievable net present value (i.e., total timber economic value). Allocating specific proportion of the landscape to a management zone had distinctive effects on the optimized economic or multifunctionality values. Net present value was only moderately impacted by shifting from intensive to extensive management, while multifunctionality benefited from less intensive and more diverse management regimes. This is the first study to apply Triad in a European boreal forest landscape, highlighting the usefulness of this approach. Our results show the potential of the Triad approach in promoting forest multifunctionality, as well as a strong trade-off between net present value and multifunctionality. We conclude that simply applying the Triad approach does not implicitly contribute to an overall increase in forest multifunctionality, as careful forest management planning still requires clear landscape objectives.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change.

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Building up an ecologically sustainable and socially desirable post-COVID-19 future.

COVID-19 crisis has emphasized how poorly prepared humanity is to cope with global disasters. However, this crisis also offers a unique opportunity to move towards a more sustainable and equitable future. Here, we identify the underlying environmental, social, and economic chronic causes of the COVID-19 crisis. We argue in favour of a holistic view to initiate a socio-economic transition to improve the prospects for global sustainability and human well-being. Alternative approaches to "Business-As-Usual" for guiding the transition are already available for implementation. Yet, to ensure a successful and just transition, we need to change our priorities towards environmental integrity and well-being. This necessarily means environmental justice, a different worldview and a closer relationship with nature.

Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.

Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.

Sarcopenia y dinapenia en pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en un área rural de Castilla-La Mancha / Sarcopenia and dynapenia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in a rural area in Castilla- La Mancha

Objetivo. Conocer la prevalencia de sarcopenia y dinapenia en pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (DMT2), así como identificar posibles factores clínicos y sociodemográficos que pudieran estar asociados a ambos síndromes. Diseño. Estudio descriptivo transversal y de asociación cruzada. Mediciones Principales. Se calculó y comparó la prevalencia tanto de dinapenia como sarcopenia en dos muestras obtenidas de forma aleatoria, una de sujetos con DMT2 y otra de no diabéticos (n=211 cada una). Sólo en el grupo de diabéticos se analizó la diferente asociación de sarcopenia y dinapenia con variables sociodemográficas y clínicas relevantes en la DMT2. Mediante regresión logística se construyó un modelo predictivo, de forma separada para sarcopenia y dinapenia, a partir de los resultados del análisis bivariante. Resultados. La prevalencia de sarcopenia en diabéticos fue del 8,5 %, frente al 5,2 % en no diabéticos (diferencia no significativa). En lo referente a dinapenia: 39,3 % en diabéticos y 18,0 % en no diabéticos (p<0,001). Resultaron asociadas tanto a sarcopenia como a dinapenia las variables: edad, comorbilidad elevada, retinopatía diabética, neuropatía periférica, velocidad de la marcha ≤1 m/s y no ser fumador en activo. La resistencia insulínica y el género femenino fueron estadísticamente significativas sólo para la sarcopenia. La cardiopatía isquémica, la insuficiencia cardíaca y el estado civil de soltero o viudo aparecieron asociadas únicamente a dinapenia. En el análisis multivariante para sarcopenia resultaron con significación estadística: edad, osteoporosis, retinopatía diabética, glaucoma y el test Beck Depression Inventory; en el correspondiente a dinapenia: edad, gonartrosis, anemia y velocidad de la marcha ≤1 m/s. Conclusiones. Los pacientes con DMT2 tuvieron una mayor proporción de sarcopenia y dinapenia, siendo significativa sólo la segunda cuando se comparó con las prevalencias obtenidas en participantes no diabéticos. Ciertas características clínicas y socidemográficas están asociadas a la presencia de ambos síndromes, lo que podría facilitar la mejor identificación de los mismos en los diabéticos controlados en Atención Primaria (AU)

Objective. To ascertain the prevalence of sarcopenia and dynapenia in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to identify possible clinical and socio-demographic factors that might be associated with both syndromes. Design. Descriptive cross-sectional study. Main measures. We calculated and compared the prevalence of both dynapenia and sarcopenia in two randomly obtained samples, one comprising subjects with T2DM and another comprising non-diabetic subjects (n=211 each). The different association between sarcopenia and dynapenia, and socio-demographic and clinical variables relevant in T2DM was only analysed in the diabetic group. Using logistic regression, separate predictive models were constructed for sarcopenia and dynapenia, based on the results of the bivariate analysis. Results. While prevalence of sarcopenia was 8.5 % in diabetic subjects versus 5.2 % in nondiabetic subjects (non-significant difference), that of dynapenia was 39.3 % in diabetic subjects versus 18.0 % in non-diabetic subjects (p<0.001). The following variables were associated with both sarcopenia and dynapenia: age; high comorbidity; diabetic retinopathy; peripheral neuropathy; gait speed ≤1 m/s; and not being an active smoker. Insulin resistance and female gender were statistically significant only for sarcopenia. Ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and single or widowed marital status were exclusively associated with dynapenia. The multivariate analysis showed the following variables to be statistically significant: age, osteoporosis, diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) test in the case of sarcopenia; and age, gonarthrosis, anaemia and gait speed ≤1 m/s in the case of dynapenia. Conclusions. T2DM patients showed a higher proportion of sarcopenia and dynapenia, being significant only the latter when compared with prevalences obtained in non-diabetic patients. Certain clinical and socio-demographic characteristics are associated with the presence of both syndromes, fact that may facilitate a better identification of these in diabetic patients controlled in Primary Care (AU)

Impacts of forestry on boreal forests: An ecosystem services perspective.

Forests are widely recognized as major providers of ecosystem services, including timber, other forest products, recreation, regulation of water, soil and air quality, and climate change mitigation. Extensive tracts of boreal forests are actively managed for timber production, but actions aimed at increasing timber yields also affect other forest functions and services. Here, we present an overview of the environmental impacts of forest management from the perspective of ecosystem services. We show how prevailing forestry practices may have substantial but diverse effects on the various ecosystem services provided by boreal forests. Several aspects of these processes remain poorly known and warrant a greater role in future studies, including the role of community structure. Conflicts among different interests related to boreal forests are most likely to occur, but the concept of ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for identifying and resolving these conflicts.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.

The contribution of vegetation and landscape configuration for predicting environmental change impacts on Iberian birds.

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26-40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1-18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species.