Analysis of trimodal and bimodal therapy in a selective-surgery paradigm for locally advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival outcomes of trimodal therapy (TMT; chemoradiation plus surgery) and bimodal therapy (BMT; chemoradiation) have seldom been analysed. In a selective-surgery paradigm, the benefit of TMT in patients with a complete clinical response is controversial. Factors associated with survival in patients with a clinical complete response to chemoradiation were evaluated. METHODS: Patients with stage II-III oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with TMT or BMT from 2002 to 2017 were evaluated. The BMT group consisted of patients who were otherwise eligible for surgery but underwent chemoradiation alone followed by observation. This group included patients who later had salvage oesophagectomy. Survival was evaluated and compared between TMT and BMT groups. Elastic net regularization was performed to select co-variables for Cox multivariable survival analysis in patients with a clinical complete response. RESULTS: Of 143 patients, 60 (41.9 per cent) underwent TMT and 83 (58.0 per cent) BMT. Patients who underwent TMT had longer median overall survival than those who had BMT (77 versus 33 months; P = 0.019). For patients with a clinical complete response, TMT achieved longer median overall survival than BMT (123 versus 55 months; P = 0.04). BMT had a high locoregional recurrence rate (48 versus 6 per cent; P < 0.001); 26 of 29 patients with locoregional recurrence in the BMT groupunderwent salvage resection. Cox multivariable analysis demonstrated that upper-mid oesophageal tumour location (hazard ratio (HR) 2.04; P = 0.024) and tumour length (HR 1.18; P = 0.046) were associated with worse survival. Although TMT was not associated with survival, it was a predictor of reduced recurrence (HR 0.28; P = 0.028). The maximum standardized uptake value after chemoradiation also predicted recurrence (HR 1.33; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In patients who achieve a clinical complete response, TMT reduces locoregional recurrence but may not prolong survival. The differences in survival outcomes may be due to patient selection; therefore, a selective-surgery strategy in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma is a reasonable approach.

Customized vs population-based growth charts to identify neonates at risk of adverse outcome: systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of observational studies.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of customized vs population-based growth charts for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: MEDLINE, ClinicalTrials.gov and The Cochrane Library were searched up to 31 May 2016 to identify interventional and observational studies comparing adverse outcomes among large- (LGA) and small- (SGA) for-gestational-age neonates, when classified according to customized vs population-based growth charts. Perinatal mortality and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of both SGA and LGA neonates, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and neonatal mortality of SGA neonates, and neonatal shoulder dystocia and hypoglycemia as well as maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations in LGA pregnancies were evaluated. RESULTS: The electronic search identified 237 records that were examined based on title and abstract, of which 27 full-text articles were examined for eligibility. After excluding seven articles, 20 observational studies were included in a Bayesian meta-analysis. Neonates classified as SGA according to customized growth charts had higher risks of IUFD (odds ratio (OR), 7.8 (95% CI, 4.2-12.3)), neonatal death (OR, 3.5 (95% CI, 1.1-8.0)), perinatal death (OR, 5.8 (95% CI, 3.8-7.8)) and NICU admission (OR, 3.6 (95% CI, 2.0-5.5)) than did non-SGA cases. Neonates classified as SGA according to population-based growth charts also had increased risk for adverse outcomes, albeit the point estimates of the pooled ORs were smaller: IUFD (OR, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.0)), neonatal death (OR, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2-4.5)), perinatal death (OR, 4.0 (95% CI, 2.8-5.1)) and NICU admission (OR, 2.4 (95% CI, 1.7-3.2)). For LGA vs non-LGA, there were no differences in pooled ORs for perinatal death, NICU admission, hypoglycemia and maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations when classified according to either the customized or the population-based approach. In contrast, both approaches indicated that LGA neonates are at increased risk for shoulder dystocia than are non-LGA ones (OR, 7.4 (95% CI, 4.9-9.8) using customized charts; OR, 8.0 (95% CI, 5.3-10.1) using population-based charts). CONCLUSIONS: Both customized and population-based growth charts can identify SGA neonates at risk for adverse outcomes. Although the point estimates of the pooled ORs may differ for some outcomes, the overlapping CIs and lack of direct comparisons prevent conclusions from being drawn on the superiority of one method. Future clinical trials should compare directly the two approaches in the management of fetuses of abnormal size. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.