Evaluation of magnetic resonance imaging for bladder cancer detection following transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT).

PURPOSE: To evaluate the performance of MRI for detection of bladder cancer following transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT). METHODS: This single-centre retrospective study included forty-one consecutive patients with bladder cancer who underwent bladder MRI after TURBT. Two uroradiologists retrospectively assessed the presence of tumour using bladder MRI with and without DWI (diffusion weighted imaging) using a five-point Likert scale. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated and inter-reader agreement was assessed. Histopathology was used as the reference standard. RESULTS: 24 out of 41 patients (58.5%) had no residual tumour or Tis (carcinoma in situ) after TURBT. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for detection of tumour using T1WI (T1-weighted imaging) and T2WI (T2-weighted imaging) was 50.0%, 54.6%, 21.1%, and 81.8%, respectively and for T1WI, T2WI and DWI combined was 100%, 76.5%, 50.0% and 100%, respectively. Overestimation of tumour was more common than underestimation. MRI showed high accuracy for patients in whom there was no residual tumour (78.9%). Inter-reader agreement for tumour detection improved from fair (κ = 0.54) to moderate (κ = 0.70) when DWI was included. CONCLUSION: Non-contrast MRI with DWI showed high sensitivity and relatively high specificity for detection of residual tumour after TURBT. Inter-reader agreement improved from fair to moderate with the addition of DWI. MRI can be useful after TURBT in order to guide further management.

Neural mechanisms of visual motion extrapolation.

Because neural processing takes time, the brain only has delayed access to sensory information. When localising moving objects this is problematic, as an object will have moved on by the time its position has been determined. Here, we consider predictive motion extrapolation as a fundamental delay-compensation strategy. From a population-coding perspective, we outline how extrapolation can be achieved by a forwards shift in the population-level activity distribution. We identify general mechanisms underlying such shifts, involving various asymmetries which facilitate the targeted 'enhancement' and/or 'dampening' of population-level activity. We classify these on the basis of their potential implementation (intra- vs inter-regional processes) and consider specific examples in different visual regions. We consider how motion extrapolation can be achieved during inter-regional signaling, and how asymmetric connectivity patterns which support extrapolation can emerge spontaneously from local synaptic learning rules. Finally, we consider how more abstract 'model-based' predictive strategies might be implemented. Overall, we present an integrative framework for understanding how the brain determines the real-time position of moving objects, despite neural delays.

Exploring the extent to which shared mechanisms contribute to motion-position illusions.

Motion-position illusions (MPIs) are visual motion illusions in which motion signals bias the perceived position of an object. Due to phenomenological similarities between these illusions, previous research has assumed that some are caused by common mechanisms. However, this assumption has yet to be directly tested. This study investigates this assumption by exploiting between-participant variations in illusion magnitude. During two sessions, 106 participants viewed the flash-lag effect, luminance flash-lag effect, Fröhlich effect, flash-drag effect, flash-grab effect, motion-induced position shift, twinkle-goes effect, and the flash-jump effect. For each effect, the magnitude of the illusion was reliable within participants, strongly correlating between sessions. When the pairwise correlations of averaged illusions magnitudes were explored, two clusters of statistically significant positively correlated illusions were identified. The first cluster comprised the flash-grab effect, motion-induced position shift, and twinkle-goes effect. The second cluster comprised the Fröhlich and flash-drag effect. The fact that within each of these two clusters, individual differences in illusion magnitude were correlated suggests that these clusters may reflect shared underlying mechanisms. An exploratory factor analysis provided additional evidence that these correlated clusters shared an underlying factor, with each cluster loading onto their own factor. Overall, our results reveal that, contrary to the prevailing perspective in the literature, while some motion-position illusions share processes, most of these illusions are unlikely to reflect any shared processes, instead implicating unique mechanisms.

Comparative effectiveness of psychological interventions for treating the psychological consequences of sexual abuse in children and adolescents: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Following sexual abuse, children and young people may develop a range of psychological problems, including anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and a range of behaviour problems. Those working with children and young people experiencing these problems may use one or more of a range of psychological approaches. OBJECTIVES: To assess the relative effectiveness of psychological interventions compared to other treatments or no treatment controls, to overcome psychological consequences of sexual abuse in children and young people up to 18 years of age. Secondary objectives To rank psychotherapies according to their effectiveness. To compare different 'doses' of the same intervention. SEARCH METHODS: In November 2022 we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, 12 other databases and two trials registers. We reviewed the reference lists of included studies, alongside other work in the field, and communicated with the authors of included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing psychological interventions for sexually abused children and young people up to 18 years old with other treatments or no treatments. Interventions included: cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), psychodynamic therapy, family therapy, child centred therapy (CCT), and eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR). We included both individual and group formats. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias for our primary outcomes (psychological distress/mental health, behaviour, social functioning, relationships with family and others) and secondary outcomes (substance misuse, delinquency, resilience, carer distress and efficacy). We considered the effects of the interventions on all outcomes at post-treatment, six months follow-up and 12 months follow-up. For each outcome and time point with sufficient data, we performed random-effects network and pairwise meta-analyses to determine an overall effect estimate for each possible pair of therapies. Where meta-analysis was not possible, we report the summaries from single studies. Due to the low number of studies in each network, we did not attempt to determine the probabilities of each treatment being the most effective relative to the others for each outcome at each time point. We rated the certainty of evidence with GRADE for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS: We included 22 studies (1478 participants) in this review. Most of the participants were female (range: 52% to 100%), and were mainly white. Limited information was provided on socioeconomic status of participants. Seventeen studies were conducted in North America, with the remaining studies conducted in the UK (N = 2), Iran (N = 1), Australia (N = 1) and Democratic Republic of Congo (N = 1). CBT was explored in 14 studies and CCT in eight studies; psychodynamic therapy, family therapy and EMDR were each explored in two studies. Management as usual (MAU) was the comparator in three studies and a waiting list was the comparator in five studies. For all outcomes, comparisons were informed by low numbers of studies (one to three per comparison), sample sizes were small (median = 52, range 11 to 229) and networks were poorly connected. Our estimates were all imprecise and uncertain. Primary outcomes At post-treatment, network meta-analysis (NMA) was possible for measures of psychological distress and behaviour, but not for social functioning. Relative to MAU, there was very low certainty evidence that CCT involving parent and child reduced PTSD (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.87, 95% confidence intervals (CI) -1.64 to -0.10), and CBT with only the child reduced PTSD symptoms (SMD -0.96, 95% CI -1.72 to -0.20). There was no clear evidence of an effect of any therapy relative to MAU for other primary outcomes or at any other time point. Secondary outcomes Compared to MAU, there was very low certainty evidence that, at post-treatment, CBT delivered to the child and the carer might reduce parents' emotional reactions (SMD -6.95, 95% CI -10.11 to -3.80), and that CCT might reduce parents' stress. However, there is high uncertainty in these effect estimates and both comparisons were informed only by one study. There was no evidence that the other therapies improved any other secondary outcome. We attributed very low levels of confidence for all NMA and pairwise estimates for the following reasons. Reporting limitations resulted in judgements of 'unclear' to 'high' risk of bias in relation to selection, detection, performance, attrition and reporting bias; the effect estimates we derived were imprecise, and small or close to no change; our networks were underpowered due to the low number of studies informing them; and whilst studies were broadly comparable with regard to settings, the use of a manual, the training of the therapists, the duration of treatment and number of sessions offered, there was considerable variability in the age of participants and the format in which the interventions were delivered (individual or group). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There was weak evidence that both CCT (delivered to child and carer) and CBT (delivered to the child) might reduce PTSD symptoms at post-treatment. However, the effect estimates are uncertain and imprecise. For the remaining outcomes examined, none of the estimates suggested that any of the interventions reduced symptoms compared to management as usual. Weaknesses in the evidence base include the dearth of evidence from low- and middle-income countries. Further, not all interventions have been evaluated to the same extent, and there is little evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions for male participants or those from different ethnicities. In 18 studies, the age ranges of participants ranged from 4 to 16 years old or 5 to 17 years old. This may have influenced the way in which the interventions were delivered, received, and consequently influenced outcomes. Many of the included studies evaluated interventions that were developed by members of the research team. In others, developers were involved in monitoring the delivery of the treatment. It remains the case that evaluations conducted by independent research teams are needed to reduce the potential for investigator bias. Studies addressing these gaps would help to establish the relative effectiveness of interventions currently used with this vulnerable population.

Methodological Challenges in Group-based Randomised Controlled Trials for Intimate Partner Violence Perpetrators: A Meta-summary.

Evidence for treatment effects of group-based Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) perpetrators programmes remains, at best, inconclusive. In the present review, systematic/meta-analytic reviews were used to identify randomised controlled trials and a meta-summary approach was employed to identify methodological challenges in the design and conduct of these trials. Of the fifteen studies identified, seven were comparative effectiveness trials. A range of methodological challenges were also identified by the trialists; source of outcome data, treatment modality, attrition and sample characteristics were the most frequently mentioned. Although there are only a few randomised controlled trials compared to non randomised studies, the findings of both highlight the need to invest in the development of innovative and/or combined IPV treatment programmes to address co-occurring issues such as substance use and trauma. The summary of methodological challenges will provide the first step in the development of methods guidance for researchers working in this area.

La evidencia del efecto del tratamiento de los programas de intervención grupal para agresores de pareja (IPV) siguen siendo, en el mejor de los casos, no concluyentes. En la presente revisión se emplearon revisiones sistemáticas/meta-analíticas para identificar ensayos controlados aleatorizados y se empleó un enfoque de meta-resumen para identificar los desafíos metodológicos en el diseño y la realización de estos ensayos. De los quince estudios identificados, siete fueron ensayos de comparación de la efectividad. Los autores de los ensayos también identificaron una serie de desafíos metodológicos: la fuente de la que se obtienen los datos relativos a los resultados, la modalidad de tratamiento, la mortalidad de la muestra y sus características fueron los mencionados con más frecuencia. Aunque son todavía escasos los ensayos controlados aleatorizados en comparación con los estudios no aleatorizados, los resultados de ambos tipos de estudios han destacado la importancia de invertir en el desarrollo de programas de tratamiento de IPV innovadores y/o combinados para tratar problemáticas conjuntas tales como consumo de substancias y trauma. El resumen de los desafíos metodológicos proporcionará el primer paso para el desarrollo de guías metodológicas para los investigadores que trabajan en este área.

Visual Information Is Predictively Encoded in Occipital Alpha/Low-Beta Oscillations.

Hierarchical predictive coding networks are a general model of sensory processing in the brain. Under neural delays, these networks have been suggested to naturally generate oscillatory activity in approximately the α frequency range (∼8-12 Hz). This suggests that α oscillations, a prominent feature of EEG recordings, may be a spectral "fingerprint" of predictive sensory processing. Here, we probed this possibility by investigating whether oscillations over the visual cortex predictively encode visual information. Specifically, we examined whether their power carries information about the position of a moving stimulus, in a temporally predictive fashion. In two experiments (N = 32, 18 female; N = 34, 17 female), participants viewed an apparent-motion stimulus moving along a circular path while EEG was recorded. To investigate the encoding of stimulus-position information, we developed a method of deriving probabilistic spatial maps from oscillatory power estimates. With this method, we demonstrate that it is possible to reconstruct the trajectory of a moving stimulus from α/low-ß oscillations, tracking its position even across unexpected motion reversals. We also show that future position representations are activated in the absence of direct visual input, demonstrating that temporally predictive mechanisms manifest in α/ß band oscillations. In a second experiment, we replicate these findings and show that the encoding of information in this range is not driven by visual entrainment. By demonstrating that occipital α/ß oscillations carry stimulus-related information, in a temporally predictive fashion, we provide empirical evidence of these rhythms as a spectral "fingerprint" of hierarchical predictive processing in the human visual system.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT "Hierarchical predictive coding" is a general model of sensory information processing in the brain. When in silico predictive coding models are constrained by neural transmission delays, their activity naturally oscillates in roughly the α range (∼8-12 Hz). Using time-resolved EEG decoding, we show that neural rhythms in this approximate range (α/low-ß) over the human visual cortex predictively encode the position of a moving stimulus. From the amplitude of these oscillations, we are able to reconstruct the stimulus' trajectory, revealing signatures of temporally predictive processing. This provides direct neural evidence linking occipital α/ß rhythms to predictive visual processing, supporting the emerging view of such oscillations as a potential spectral "fingerprint" of hierarchical predictive processing in the human visual system.

Methodological Challenges in Group-based Randomised Controlled Trials for Intimate Partner Violence Perpetrators: A Meta-summary / [Desafíos metodológicos en los ensayos controlados aleatorizados con grupos de intervención para agresores de pareja: un meta-resumen]

Evidence for treatment effects of group-based Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) perpetrators programmes remains, at best, inconclusive. In the present review, systematic/meta-analytic reviews were used to identify randomised controlled trials and a meta-summary approach was employed to identify methodological challenges in the design and conduct of these trials. Of the fifteen studies identified, seven were comparative effectiveness trials. A range of methodological challenges were also identified by the trialists; source of outcome data, treatment modality, attrition and sample characteristics were the most frequently mentioned. Although there are only a few randomised controlled trials compared to non randomised studies, the findings of both highlight the need to invest in the development of innovative and/or combined IPV treatment programmes to address co-occurring issues such as substance use and trauma. The summary of methodological challenges will provide the first step in the development of methods guidance for researchers working in this area.(AU)

La evidencia del efecto del tratamiento de los programas de intervención grupal para agresores de pareja (IPV) siguen siendo, en el mejor de los casos, no concluyentes. En la presente revisión se emplearon revisiones sistemáticas/meta-analíticas para identificar ensayos controlados aleatorizados y se empleó un enfoque de meta-resumen para identificar los desafíos metodológicos en el diseño y la realización de estos ensayos. De los quince estudios identificados, siete fueron ensayos de comparación de la efectividad. Los autores de los ensayos también identificaron una serie de desafíos metodológicos: la fuente de la que se obtienen los datos relativos a los resultados, la modalidad de tratamiento, la mortalidad de la muestra y sus características fueron los mencionados con más frecuencia. Aunque son todavía escasos los ensayos controlados aleatorizados en comparación con los estudios no aleatorizados, los resultados de ambos tipos de estudios han destacado la importancia de invertir en el desarrollo de programas de tratamiento de IPV innovadores y/o combinados para tratar problemáticas conjuntas tales como consumo de substancias y trauma. El resumen de los desafíos metodológicos proporcionará el primer paso para el desarrollo de guías metodológicas para los investigadores que trabajan en este área.(AU)

The characterisation of Wickerhamomyces anomalus M15, a highly tolerant yeast for bioethanol production using seaweed derived medium.

Advanced generation biofuels have potential for replacing fossil fuels as society moves forward into a net-zero carbon future. Marine biomass is a promising source of fermentable sugars for fermentative bioethanol production; however the medium derived from seaweed hydrolysis contains various inhibitors, such as salts that affected ethanol fermentation efficiency. In this study the stress tolerance of a marine yeast, Wickerhamomyces anomalus M15 was characterised. Specific growth rate analysis results showed that Wickerhamomyces anomalus M15 could tolerate up to 600 g/L glucose, 150 g/L xylose and 250 g/L ethanol, respectively. Using simulated concentrated seaweed hydrolysates, W. anomalus M15's bioethanol production potential using macroalgae derived feedstocks was assessed, in which 5.8, 45.0, and 19.9 g/L ethanol was produced from brown (Laminaria digitata), green (Ulva linza) and red seaweed (Porphyra umbilicalis) based media. The fermentation of actual Ulva spp. hydrolysate harvested from United Kingdom shores resulted in a relatively low ethanol concentration (15.5 g/L) due to challenges that arose from concentrating the seaweed hydrolysate. However, fed-batch fermentation using simulated concentrated green seaweed hydrolysate achieved a concentration of 73 g/L ethanol in fermentations using both seawater and reverse osmosis water. Further fermentations conducted with an adaptive strain W. anomalus M15-500A showed improved bioethanol production of 92.7 g/L ethanol from 200 g/L glucose and reduced lag time from 93 h to 24 h in fermentation with an initial glucose concentration of 500 g/L. The results indicated that strains W. anomalus M15 and W. anomalus M15-500A have great potential for industrial bioethanol production using marine biomass derived feedstocks. It also suggested that if a concentrated high sugar content seaweed hydrolysate could be obtained, the bioethanol concentration could achieve 90 g/L or above, exceeding the minimum industrial production threshold.

Advancing early warning capabilities with CHIRPS-compatible NCEP GEFS precipitation forecasts.

CHIRPS-GEFS is an operational data set that provides daily bias-corrected forecasts for next 1-day to ~15-day precipitation totals and anomalies at a quasi-global 50-deg N to 50-deg S extent and 0.05-degree resolution. These are based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFS v12) precipitation forecasts. CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts are compatible with Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data, which is actively used for drought monitoring, early warning, and near real-time impact assessments. A rank-based quantile matching procedure is used to transform GEFS v12 "reforecast" and "real-time" forecast ensemble means to CHIRPS spatial-temporal characteristics. Matching distributions to CHIRPS makes forecasts better reflect local climatology at finer spatial resolution and reduces moderate-to-large forecast errors. As shown in this study, having a CHIRPS-compatible version of the latest generation of NCEP GEFS forecasts enables rapid assessment of current forecasts and local historical context. CHIRPS-GEFS effectively bridges the gap between observations and weather predictions, increasing the value of both by connecting monitoring resources (CHIRPS) with interoperable forecasts.

Divergent effects of absolute evidence magnitude on decision accuracy and confidence in perceptual judgements.

Whether people change their mind after making a perceptual judgement may depend on how confident they are in their decision. Recently, it was shown that, when making perceptual judgements about stimuli containing high levels of 'absolute evidence' (i.e., the overall magnitude of sensory evidence across choice options), people make less accurate decisions and are also slower to change their mind and correct their mistakes. Here we report two studies that investigated whether high levels of absolute evidence also lead to increased decision confidence. We used a luminance judgment task in which participants decided which of two dynamic, flickering stimuli was brighter. After making a decision, participants rated their confidence. We manipulated relative evidence (i.e., the mean luminance difference between the two stimuli) and absolute evidence (i.e., the summed luminance of the two stimuli). In the first experiment, we found that higher absolute evidence was associated with decreased decision accuracy but increased decision confidence. In the second experiment, we additionally manipulated the degree of luminance variability to assess whether the observed effects were due to differences in perceived evidence variability. We replicated the results of the first experiment but did not find substantial effects of luminance variability on confidence ratings. Our findings support the view that decisions and confidence judgements are based on partly dissociable sources of information, and suggest that decisions initially made with higher confidence may be more resistant to subsequent changes of mind.

An initial 'snapshot' of sensory information biases the likelihood and speed of subsequent changes of mind.

We often need to rapidly change our mind about perceptual decisions in order to account for new information and correct mistakes. One fundamental, unresolved question is whether information processed prior to a decision being made ('pre-decisional information') has any influence on the likelihood and speed with which that decision is reversed. We investigated this using a luminance discrimination task in which participants indicated which of two flickering greyscale squares was brightest. Following an initial decision, the stimuli briefly remained on screen, and participants could change their response. Using psychophysical reverse correlation, we examined how moment-to-moment fluctuations in stimulus luminance affected participants' decisions. This revealed that the strength of even the very earliest (pre-decisional) evidence was associated with the likelihood and speed of later changes of mind. To account for this effect, we propose an extended diffusion model in which an initial 'snapshot' of sensory information biases ongoing evidence accumulation.

Supervised Machine Learning Approach to Identify Early Predictors of Poor Outcome in Patients with COVID-19 Presenting to a Large Quaternary Care Hospital in New York City.

BACKGROUND: The progression of clinical manifestations in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlights the need to account for symptom duration at the time of hospital presentation in decision-making algorithms. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control analysis of 4103 adult patients with COVID-19 and at least 28 days of follow-up who presented to a New York City medical center. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to identify predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: Patients presenting to the hospital earlier in their disease course were older, had more comorbidities, and a greater proportion decompensated (<4 days, 41%; 4-8 days, 31%; >8 days, 26%). The first recorded oxygen delivery method was the most important predictor of decompensation overall in CART analysis. In patients with symptoms for <4, 4-8, and >8 days, requiring at least non-rebreather, age ≥ 63 years, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio ≥ 5.1; requiring at least non-rebreather, IL-6 ≥ 24.7 pg/mL, and D-dimer ≥ 2.4 µg/mL; and IL-6 ≥ 64.3 pg/mL, requiring non-rebreather, and CRP ≥ 152.5 mg/mL in predictive models were independently associated with poor outcome, respectively. CONCLUSION: Symptom duration in tandem with initial clinical and laboratory markers can be used to identify patients with COVID-19 at increased risk for poor outcomes.

Tracking dynamic adjustments to decision making and performance monitoring processes in conflict tasks.

How we exert control over our decision-making has been investigated using conflict tasks, which involve stimuli containing elements that are either congruent or incongruent. In these tasks, participants adapt their decision-making strategies following exposure to incongruent stimuli. According to conflict monitoring accounts, conflicting stimulus features are detected in medial frontal cortex, and the extent of experienced conflict scales with response time (RT) and frontal theta-band activity in the Electroencephalogram (EEG). However, the consequent adjustments to decision processes following response conflict are not well-specified. To characterise these adjustments and their neural implementation we recorded EEG during a modified Flanker task. We traced the time-courses of performance monitoring processes (frontal theta) and multiple processes related to perceptual decision-making. In each trial participants judged which of two overlaid gratings forming a plaid stimulus (termed the S1 target) was of higher contrast. The stimulus was divided into two sections, which each contained higher contrast gratings in either congruent or incongruent directions. Shortly after responding to the S1 target, an additional S2 target was presented, which was always congruent. Our EEG results suggest enhanced sensory evidence representations in visual cortex and reduced evidence accumulation rates for S2 targets following incongruent S1 stimuli. Results of a follow-up behavioural experiment indicated that the accumulation of sensory evidence from the incongruent (i.e. distracting) stimulus element was adjusted following response conflict. Frontal theta amplitudes positively correlated with RT following S1 targets (in line with conflict monitoring accounts). Following S2 targets there was no such correlation, and theta amplitude profiles instead resembled decision evidence accumulation trajectories. Our findings provide novel insights into how cognitive control is implemented following exposure to conflicting information, which is critical for extending conflict monitoring accounts.

A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Since 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced an unprecedented rise in acute food insecurity (AFI), and current projections for the year 2020 indicate that more than 100 million Africans are estimated to receive emergency food assistance. Climate-driven drought is one of the main contributing factors to AFI, and timely and appropriate actions can be taken to mitigate impacts of AFI on lives and livelihoods through early warning systems. To support this goal, we use observations of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of seasonal drought conditions following a rainy season to show that delays in the onset of the rainy season (onset date) can be an effective early indicator of seasonal drought conditions. The core of this study is an evaluation of the relationship of the onset dates and peak NDVI, stratified by AFI risks, calculated using AFI reports by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID)-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Several parts of SSA, mostly located in East Africa (EA), reported the "Crisis" phase of AFI-requiring emergency food assistance-at least one-third of the time between April 2011 to present. The results show that the onset date can effectively explain much of the interannual variability in peak NDVI in the regions with the highest AFI risk level, particularly in EA where the median of correlation (across all the Administrative Unit 2) varies between -0.42 to -0.68. In general, an onset date delay of at least 1 dekad (10 days) increases the likelihood of seasonal drought conditions. In the regions with highest risks of AFI, an onset delay of just 1 dekad doubles the chance of the standardized anomaly of peak NDVI being below -1, making a -1 anomaly the most probable outcome. In those regions, a 2-dekads delay in the onset date is associated with a very high probability (50%) of seasonal drought conditions (-1 standardized anomaly of NDVI). Finally, a multivariate regression analysis between standardized anomaly and onset date anomaly further substantiates the negative impacts of delay in onset date on NDVI anomaly. This relationship is statistically significant over the SSA as a whole, particularly in the EA region. These results imply that the onset date can be used as an additional critical tool to provide alerts of seasonal drought development in the most food-insecure regions of SSA. Early warning systems using onset date as a tool can help trigger effective mid-season responses to save human lives, livestock, and livelihoods, and, therefore, mitigate the adverse impacts of drought hazards.

Cell-Free Total Biosynthesis of Plant Terpene Natural Products using an Orthogonal Cofactor Regeneration System.

Here we report the one-pot, cell-free enzymatic synthesis of the plant monoterpene nepetalactol starting from the readily available geraniol. A pair of orthogonal cofactor regeneration systems permitted NAD+-dependent geraniol oxidation followed by NADPH-dependent reductive cyclization without isolation of intermediates. The orthogonal cofactor regeneration system maintained a high ratio of NAD+ to NADH and a low ratio of NADP+ to NADPH. The overall reaction contains four biosynthetic enzymes, including a soluble P450; and five accessory and cofactor regeneration enzymes. Furthermore, addition of a NAD+-dependent dehydrogenase to the one-pot mixture led to ~1 g/L of nepetalactone, the active cat- attractant in catnip.

Perceptual change-of-mind decisions are sensitive to absolute evidence magnitude.

To navigate the world safely, we often need to rapidly 'change our mind' about decisions. Current models assume that initial decisions and change-of-mind decisions draw upon common sources of sensory evidence. In two-choice scenarios, this evidence may be 'relative' or 'absolute'. For example, when judging which of two objects is the brightest, the luminance difference and luminance ratio between the two objects are sources of 'relative' evidence, which are invariant across additive and multiplicative luminance changes. Conversely, the overall luminance of the two objects combined is a source of 'absolute' evidence, which necessarily varies across symmetric luminance manipulations. Previous studies have shown that initial decisions are sensitive to both relative and absolute evidence; however, it is unknown whether change-of-mind decisions are sensitive to absolute evidence. Here, we investigated this question across two experiments. In each experiment participants indicated which of two flickering greyscale squares was brightest. Following an initial decision, the stimuli remained on screen for a brief period and participants could change their response. To investigate the effect of absolute evidence, the overall luminance of the two squares was varied whilst either the luminance difference (Experiment 1) or luminance ratio (Experiment 2) was held constant. In both experiments we found that increases in absolute evidence led to faster, less accurate initial responses and slower changes of mind. Change-of-mind accuracy decreased when the luminance difference was held constant, but remained unchanged when the luminance ratio was fixed. We show that the three existing change-of-mind models cannot account for our findings. We then fit three alternative models, previously used to account for the effect of absolute evidence on one-off decisions, to the data. A leaky competing accumulator model best accounted for the changes in behaviour across absolute evidence conditions - suggesting an important role for input-dependent leak in explaining perceptual changes of mind.

Perceptual decision confidence is sensitive to forgone physical effort expenditure.

Contemporary theoretical accounts of metacognition propose that action-related information is used in the computation of perceptual decision confidence. We investigated whether the amount of expended physical effort, or the 'motoric sunk cost' of a decision, influences perceptual decision confidence judgements in humans. In particular, we examined whether people feel more confident in decisions which required more effort to report. Forty-two participants performed a luminance discrimination task that involved identifying which of two flickering grayscale squares was brightest. Participants reported their choice by squeezing hand-held dynamometers. Across trials, the effort required to report a decision was varied across three levels (low, medium, high). Critically, participants were only aware of the required effort level on each trial once they had initiated their motor response, meaning that the varying effort requirements could not influence their initial decisions. Following each decision, participants rated their confidence in their choice. We found that participants were more confident in decisions that required greater effort to report. This suggests that humans are sensitive to motoric sunk costs and supports contemporary models of metacognition in which actions inform the computation of decision confidence.

Black Lives Matter: We are in the Same Storm but we are not in the Same Boat.

Black Lives Matter is a clarion call for racial equality and racial justice. With the arrival of Africans as slaves in 1619, a racial hierarchy was formed in the United States. However, slavery is commonly dismissed as that less than noble aspect of the United States' history without really confronting the legacies of racial inequality and racial injustice left in its wake. White supremacy, based on the myths of white superiority and Black inferiority, have obscured racial inequality and racial injustice, resulting in blaming the victims. Using Black Lives Matter as a platform, we focus on some key considerations for theory, research, education, training, and practice in clinical, community, and larger systems contexts. Broadly, we focus on Black Lives Matter, literally; Black dehumanization; historical oppression; healing; and implications for the field of family therapy. More specifically, we draw attention to health disparities, mass incarceration and aggressive policing, intergenerational racial trauma, restorative justice, and antiracist work.

El movimiento Black Lives Matter (Las vidas de los negros son importantes) es un llamamiento a la igualdad y la justicia racial. Con la llegada de los africanos como esclavos en el año 1619, se formó una jerarquía racial en los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, la esclavitud generalmente se desestima como el aspecto menos noble de la historia de los Estados Unidos sin afrontar realmente los legados de desigualdad e injusticia raciales que dejó. La supremacía blanca, basada en los mitos de la superioridad blanca y la inferioridad negra, han ocultado la desigualdad y la injusticia raciales, lo cual condujo a la culpabilización de las víctimas. Utilizando el movimiento Black Lives Matter como plataforma, nos centramos en algunas consideraciones clave para la teoría, la investigación, la educación, la capacitación y la práctica en contextos clínicos, comunitarios y en sistemas más grandes. En líneas generales, nos centramos en Black Lives Matter, literalmente; en la deshumanización de los negros, la opresión histórica, la recuperación, y las consecuencias para el área de la terapia familiar. Más específicamente, visibilizamos las desigualdades sanitarias, el encarcelamiento masivo y la vigilancia policial agresiva, el trauma racial intergeneracional, la justicia reparadora y la labor antirracista.