Enhanced climate instability in the North Atlantic and southern Europe during the Last Interglacial.

Considerable ambiguity remains over the extent and nature of millennial/centennial-scale climate instability during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here we analyse marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea sediment sequence on the Portuguese Margin and combine results with an intensively dated Italian speleothem record and climate-model experiments. The strongest expression of climate variability occurred during the transitions into and out of the LIG. Our records also document a series of multi-centennial intra-interglacial arid events in southern Europe, coherent with cold water-mass expansions in the North Atlantic. The spatial and temporal fingerprints of these changes indicate a reorganization of ocean surface circulation, consistent with low-intensity disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The amplitude of this LIG variability is greater than that observed in Holocene records. Episodic Greenland ice melt and runoff as a result of excess warmth may have contributed to AMOC weakening and increased climate instability throughout the LIG.

A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials.

The pacing of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Quaternary period (the past 2.6 million years) is attributed to astronomically driven changes in high-latitude insolation. However, it has not been clear how astronomical forcing translates into the observed sequence of interglacials. Here we show that before one million years ago interglacials occurred when the energy related to summer insolation exceeded a simple threshold, about every 41,000 years. Over the past one million years, fewer of these insolation peaks resulted in deglaciation (that is, more insolation peaks were 'skipped'), implying that the energy threshold for deglaciation had risen, which led to longer glacials. However, as a glacial lengthens, the energy needed for deglaciation decreases. A statistical model that combines these observations correctly predicts every complete deglaciation of the past million years and shows that the sequence of interglacials that has occurred is one of a small set of possibilities. The model accounts for the dominance of obliquity-paced glacial-interglacial cycles early in the Quaternary and for the change in their frequency about one million years ago. We propose that the appearance of larger ice sheets over the past million years was a consequence of an increase in the deglaciation threshold and in the number of skipped insolation peaks.

Cryptic or mystic? Glacial tree refugia in northern Europe.

Here, we examine the evidence for tree refugia in northern Europe during the Late Pleniglacial (LPG) interval of maximum tree-range contraction. Our review highlights the often equivocal nature of genetic data and a tendency to overestimate potential tree distributions due to warm climate-model bias, and also reveals a convergence of macrofossil and pollen evidence. What emerges is the absence of temperate trees north of 45°N and a west-east (W-E) asymmetry in boreal tree distribution, with a treeless Western Europe north of 46°N, while restricted boreal populations persisted in Eastern Europe up to 49°N, and higher latitudes east of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. These results have implications for current thinking on European genetic diversity patterns, species migration capacity, and conservation strategies.

Placing late Neanderthals in a climatic context.

Attempts to place Palaeolithic finds within a precise climatic framework are complicated by both uncertainty over the radiocarbon calibration beyond about 21,500 14C years bp and the absence of a master calendar chronology for climate events from reference archives such as Greenland ice cores or speleothems. Here we present an alternative approach, in which 14C dates of interest are mapped directly onto the palaeoclimate record of the Cariaco Basin by means of its 14C series, circumventing calendar age model and correlation uncertainties, and placing dated events in the millennial-scale climate context of the last glacial period. This is applied to different sets of dates from levels with Mousterian artefacts, presumably produced by late Neanderthals, from Gorham's Cave in Gibraltar: first, generally accepted estimates of about 32,000 14C years bp for the uppermost Mousterian levels; second, a possible extended Middle Palaeolithic occupation until about 28,000 14C years bp; and third, more contentious evidence for persistence until about 24,000 14C years bp. This study shows that the three sets translate to different scenarios on the role of climate in Neanderthal extinction. The first two correspond to intervals of general climatic instability between stadials and interstadials that characterized most of the Middle Pleniglacial and are not coeval with Heinrich Events. In contrast, if accepted, the youngest date indicates that late Neanderthals may have persisted up to the onset of a major environmental shift, which included an expansion in global ice volume and an increased latitudinal temperature gradient. More generally, our radiocarbon climatostratigraphic approach can be applied to any 'snapshot' date from discontinuous records in a variety of deposits and can become a powerful tool in evaluating the climatic signature of critical intervals in Late Pleistocene human evolution.

The duration of forest stages in southern Europe and interglacial climate variability.

Foraminiferal oxygen isotope and pollen analyses from a deep-sea sequence off southwest Portugal show that the duration of temperate stages on land over the past 350,000 years varied considerably. The record shows forest contractions during intervals of low ice volume, coeval with declines in atmospheric methane, after which tree populations did not always recover. What emerges is that, although the broad timing of interglacials is consistent with orbital theory, their specific duration may be dictated by millennial variability. This complicates the prediction of the natural duration of interglacials, at least until the origin of this climate variability is understood.

Buffered tree population changes in a quaternary refugium: evolutionary implications.

A high-resolution pollen record from western Greece shows that the amplitude of millennial-scale oscillations in tree abundance during the last glacial period was subdued, with temperate tree populations surviving throughout the interval. This provides evidence for the existence of an area of relative ecological stability, reflecting the influence of continued moisture availability and varied topography. Long-term buffering of populations from climatic extremes, together with genetic isolation at such refugial sites, may have allowed lineage divergence to proceed through the Quaternary. Such ecologically stable areas may be critical not only for the long-term survival of species, but also for the emergence of new ones.