Distinguishing different psychiatric disorders using DDx-PRS.

Despite great progress on methods for case-control polygenic prediction (e.g. schizophrenia vs. control), there remains an unmet need for a method that genetically distinguishes clinically related disorders (e.g. schizophrenia (SCZ) vs. bipolar disorder (BIP) vs. depression (MDD) vs. control); such a method could have important clinical value, especially at disorder onset when differential diagnosis can be challenging. Here, we introduce a method, Differential Diagnosis-Polygenic Risk Score (DDx-PRS), that jointly estimates posterior probabilities of each possible diagnostic category (e.g. SCZ=50%, BIP=25%, MDD=15%, control=10%) by modeling variance/covariance structure across disorders, leveraging case-control polygenic risk scores (PRS) for each disorder (computed using existing methods) and prior clinical probabilities for each diagnostic category. DDx-PRS uses only summary-level training data and does not use tuning data, facilitating implementation in clinical settings. In simulations, DDx-PRS was well-calibrated (whereas a simpler approach that analyzes each disorder marginally was poorly calibrated), and effective in distinguishing each diagnostic category vs. the rest. We then applied DDx-PRS to Psychiatric Genomics Consortium SCZ/BIP/MDD/control data, including summary-level training data from 3 case-control GWAS ( N =41,917-173,140 cases; total N =1,048,683) and held-out test data from different cohorts with equal numbers of each diagnostic category (total N =11,460). DDx-PRS was well-calibrated and well-powered relative to these training sample sizes, attaining AUCs of 0.66 for SCZ vs. rest, 0.64 for BIP vs. rest, 0.59 for MDD vs. rest, and 0.68 for control vs. rest. DDx-PRS produced comparable results to methods that leverage tuning data, confirming that DDx-PRS is an effective method. True diagnosis probabilities in top deciles of predicted diagnosis probabilities were considerably larger than prior baseline probabilities, particularly in projections to larger training sample sizes, implying considerable potential for clinical utility under certain circumstances. In conclusion, DDx-PRS is an effective method for distinguishing clinically related disorders.

Estimating Disorder Probability Based on Polygenic Prediction Using the BPC Approach.

Polygenic Scores (PGSs) summarize an individual's genetic propensity for a given trait in a single value, based on SNP effect sizes derived from Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) results. Methods have been developed that apply Bayesian approaches to improve the prediction accuracy of PGSs through optimization of estimated effect sizes. While these methods are generally well-calibrated for continuous traits (implying the predicted values are on average equal to the true trait values), they are not well-calibrated for binary disorder traits in ascertained samples. This is a problem because well-calibrated PGSs are needed to reliably compute the absolute disorder probability for an individual to facilitate future clinical implementation. Here we introduce the Bayesian polygenic score Probability Conversion (BPC) approach, which computes an individual's predicted disorder probability using GWAS summary statistics, an existing Bayesian PGS method (e.g. PRScs, SBayesR), the individual's genotype data, and a prior disorder probability. The BPC approach transforms the PGS to its underlying liability scale, computes the variances of the PGS in cases and controls, and applies Bayes' Theorem to compute the absolute disorder probability; it is practical in its application as it does not require a tuning dataset with both genotype and phenotype data. We applied the BPC approach to extensive simulated data and empirical data of nine disorders. The BPC approach yielded well-calibrated results that were consistently better than the results of another recently published approach.

Shared genetic loci between Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis: Crossroads between neurodegeneration and immune system.

BACKGROUND: Neuroinflammation is involved in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including immune-linked genetic variants and molecular pathways, microglia and astrocytes. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, immune-mediated disease with genetic and environmental risk factors and neuropathological features. There are clinical and pathobiological similarities between AD and MS. Here, we investigated shared genetic susceptibility between AD and MS to identify putative pathological mechanisms shared between neurodegeneration and the immune system. METHODS: We analysed GWAS data for late-onset AD (N cases = 64,549, N controls = 634,442) and MS (N cases = 14,802, N controls = 26,703). Gaussian causal mixture modelling (MiXeR) was applied to characterise the genetic architecture and overlap between AD and MS. Local genetic correlation was investigated with Local Analysis of [co]Variant Association (LAVA). The conjunctional false discovery rate (conjFDR) framework was used to identify the specific shared genetic loci, for which functional annotation was conducted with FUMA and Open Targets. RESULTS: MiXeR analysis showed comparable polygenicities for AD and MS (approximately 1800 trait-influencing variants) and genetic overlap with 20% of shared trait-influencing variants despite negligible genetic correlation (rg = 0.03), suggesting mixed directions of genetic effects across shared variants. conjFDR analysis identified 16 shared genetic loci, with 8 having concordant direction of effects in AD and MS. Annotated genes in shared loci were enriched in molecular signalling pathways involved in inflammation and the structural organisation of neurons. CONCLUSIONS: Despite low global genetic correlation, the current results provide evidence for polygenic overlap between AD and MS. The shared loci between AD and MS were enriched in pathways involved in inflammation and neurodegeneration, highlighting new opportunities for future investigation.

Uncovering the genetic architecture of broad antisocial behavior through a genome-wide association study meta-analysis.

Despite the substantial heritability of antisocial behavior (ASB), specific genetic variants robustly associated with the trait have not been identified. The present study by the Broad Antisocial Behavior Consortium (BroadABC) meta-analyzed data from 28 discovery samples (N = 85,359) and five independent replication samples (N = 8058) with genotypic data and broad measures of ASB. We identified the first significant genetic associations with broad ASB, involving common intronic variants in the forkhead box protein P2 (FOXP2) gene (lead SNP rs12536335, p = 6.32 × 10-10). Furthermore, we observed intronic variation in Foxp2 and one of its targets (Cntnap2) distinguishing a mouse model of pathological aggression (BALB/cJ strain) from controls (BALB/cByJ strain). Polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses in independent samples revealed that the genetic risk for ASB was associated with several antisocial outcomes across the lifespan, including diagnosis of conduct disorder, official criminal convictions, and trajectories of antisocial development. We found substantial genetic correlations of ASB with mental health (depression rg = 0.63, insomnia rg = 0.47), physical health (overweight rg = 0.19, waist-to-hip ratio rg = 0.32), smoking (rg = 0.54), cognitive ability (intelligence rg = -0.40), educational attainment (years of schooling rg = -0.46) and reproductive traits (age at first birth rg = -0.58, father's age at death rg = -0.54). Our findings provide a starting point toward identifying critical biosocial risk mechanisms for the development of ASB.

Emerging Methods and Resources for Biological Interrogation of Neuropsychiatric Polygenic Signal.

Most neuropsychiatric disorders are highly polygenic, implicating hundreds to thousands of causal genetic variants that span much of the genome. This widespread polygenicity complicates biological understanding because no single variant can explain disease etiology. A strategy to advance biological insight is to seek convergent functions among the large set of variants and map them to a smaller set of disease-relevant genes and pathways. Accordingly, functional genomic resources that provide data on intermediate molecular phenotypes, such as gene-expression and methylation status, can be leveraged to functionally annotate variants and map them to genes. Such molecular quantitative trait locus mappings can be integrated with genome-wide association studies to make sense of the polygenic signal that underlies complex disease. Other resources that provide data on the 3-dimensional structure of chromatin and functional importance of specific genomic regions can be integrated similarly. In addition, mapped genes can then be tested for convergence in biological function, tissue, cell type, or developmental stage. In this review, we provide an overview of functional genomic resources and methods that can be used to interpret results from genome-wide association studies, and we discuss current challenges for biological understanding and future requirements to overcome them.