Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe.

BACKGROUND: This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey. RESULTS: Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75-100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of < 40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (= above-average) or low (= below-average) correlation coefficients. CONCLUSIONS: LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

Spatially valid data of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen derived by moss surveys for pollution risk assessments of ecosystems.

For analysing element input into ecosystems and associated risks due to atmospheric deposition, element concentrations in moss provide complementary and time-integrated data at high spatial resolution every 5 years since 1990. The paper reviews (1) minimum sample sizes needed for reliable, statistical estimation of mean values at four different spatial scales (European and national level as well as landscape-specific level covering Europe and single countries); (2) trends of heavy metal (HM) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in moss in Europe (1990-2010); (3) correlations between concentrations of HM in moss and soil specimens collected across Norway (1990-2010); and (4) canopy drip-induced site-specific variation of N concentration in moss sampled in seven European countries (1990-2013). While the minimum sample sizes on the European and national level were achieved without exception, for some ecological land classes and elements, the coverage with sampling sites should be improved. The decline in emission and subsequent atmospheric deposition of HM across Europe has resulted in decreasing HM concentrations in moss between 1990 and 2010. In contrast, hardly any changes were observed for N in moss between 2005, when N was included into the survey for the first time, and 2010. In Norway, both, the moss and the soil survey data sets, were correlated, indicating a decrease of HM concentrations in moss and soil. At the site level, the average N deposition inside of forests was almost three times higher than the average N deposition outside of forests.

Correlating concentrations of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition with respective accumulation in moss and natural surface soil for ecological land classes in Norway between 1990 and 2010.

This study investigated whether statistical correlation of modeled atmospheric heavy metal deposition and respective accumulation in moss and natural surface soil varies across natural landscapes in Norway. Target metals were cadmium, lead, and mercury, and analyses were run between 1990 and 2010 on a 5-year interval. The landscape information was derived from the Ecological Land Classification of Europe. Correlations between concentration and respective deposition data were computed for each land class. The strongest correlations between heavy metal concentrations in atmospheric deposition and corresponding levels in moss and natural surface soil were observed for lead. Correlations for mercury were weaker compared to those calculated for cadmium and lead, indicating that atmospheric transport of mercury occurs at a larger spatial scale, while accumulation additionally seems to be influenced by factors operating on smaller scales. The correlation between concentrations in atmospheric deposition and moss is landscape-specific and metal-specific. The same holds true for the relations between heavy metal concentration in modeled atmospheric deposition and natural surface soil. The results of this investigation are in line with similar calculations from across Europe. They further confirm previous studies indicating that for Norway atmospheric transport is a main source of lead and cadmium accumulation in moss as well as in natural surface soil.

Three decades of atmospheric metal deposition in Norway as evident from analysis of moss samples.

Monitoring of atmospheric deposition of metals in Norway on a nationwide scale using samples of terrestrial moss started in 1977 and has been repeated every 5 years. This has facilitated a detailed record of temporal and spatial trends of metal deposition all over the country as a supplement to measurements based on bulk deposition sampling on a small number of sites. Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Sb, V, Sn, Mo, and Bi all show highest deposition in the far south due to trans-boundary pollution from other parts of Europe, but the contribution from long-range atmospheric transport to metal deposition has decreased substantially over the years. The distributions of Fe, Ni, Cu, Cr, and Co are more affected by local sources, but a decreasing time trend is also evident for these elements. Se is mainly derived from processes in the marine environment. Deposition of metals from Cu-Ni smelters in Russia situated close to the Norwegian border has shown a steadily increasing trend over the time period concerned.