Assessing protective factors to prevent post-discharge violent behaviour: Towards an assets-based approach for clinical risk management.

Medium secure forensic psychiatric units (MSUs) in the UK aim to be recovery-oriented to enable discharge to community-based services. Risk assessments are key to discharge planning, but clinical practice tends to focus on risk factors for violence rather than protective factors associated with a decrease in risk. The aims of this study were to investigate the reliability and validity of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) as a useful measure to support an assets-based approach when planning discharge from MSUs. A prospective cohort follow-up design was chosen for this study using a confidential inquiry design to ensure a total sample of all discharges. All forensic patients discharged from 32 NHS MSUs over a 12-month period were assessed at discharge and followed-up at six and 12 months post discharge. The occurrence and frequency of post-discharge violence were compared with discharge SAPROF scores. The inter-rater reliability between SAPROF raters was very high and the SAPROF significantly predicted community violence and scores were strongly correlated with violence frequency. The higher the SAPROF score the higher the protection against violence and the risk significantly diminished. Assessing protective factors is essential to identify assets and prevent violence with a focus on what makes somebody safe. This study supports the use of the SAPROF to inform discharge planning. Cultivating protective factors is likely to be motivating for patients and the SAPROF can provide an objective, reliable measure of internal, motivational and external assets that reduce risk and support defensible decision making at discharge.

A syndemic of psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and poor physical health among young Scottish men with reduced life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, driven by high rates of cancer, suicides, alcohol-related causes and drug-related poisonings. These disparities cannot be explained solely by socioeconomic deprivation. Our aim was to investigate whether a syndemic in a socioeconomically deprived area of Glasgow might account for premature mortality among men. METHODS: We analysed data from two cross-sectional population surveys: a national sample of 1916 British men and another of 765 men in Glasgow East. The survey included men aged 18-34, and was undertaken in 2011 to study correlates of violence. Questionnaires covered current physical health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, and crime and violence. Syndemic components were identified using confirmatory factor analysis. Associations and synergistic interactions between these variables and health status were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: An aggregation of multiple health conditions and health-related behaviours was found in Glasgow East. A syndemic model of joint effects, adducing a four-component latent variable (violence, substance dependence, psychiatric morbidity and a diathesis of biological/behavioural risk) showed synergy between components and explained persistent disparities in poor physical health/chronic health conditions. Effect modification was found between the general syndemic factor and contextual variables at individual and social environmental level according to location. CONCLUSIONS: Syndemic effects from synergistic interactions were confirmed between psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and biological/behavioural risk for physical health. A hypothetical model was developed to explain how the syndemic leads to potentially life-threatening risks to young men, both currently and as precursors of physical health conditions which may shorten their lives in the future.

Interpersonal violence in a deprived Scottish urban area with aggregations of physical health risks and psychiatric morbidity: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Glasgow, Scotland, has previously shown exceptional levels of violence among young men, shows aggregations of health conditions, with shortened life expectancy. Health conditions can be both causes and consequences of violence, of shared community-level socio-economic risk factors, and can result from large-scale social forces beyond the control of populations with high levels of violence. The aim of the study was to provide an in depth understanding of the Public Health problem of violence among young adult men in Glasgow East. METHOD: Ecological investigation of violence and its associations with health conditions in areas of contrasting socioeconomic deprivation. National survey of 1916 British men aged 18-34 years, augmented by a sub-sample of 765 men in Glasgow East (GE). Participants completed questionnaires covering current physical and sexual health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, lifestyle, and crime and violence. RESULTS: The 5-year prevalence of violence was similar in both surveys but fights involving weapons (AOR 3.32, 95% CI 2.29-4.79), gang fights (AOR 2.30, 95% CI 1.77-2.98), and instrumental violence supporting criminal lifestyles were more common in GE, where 1 in 9 men had been in prison. Violent men in both samples reported poorer physical and sexual health and all types of psychiatric morbidity except depression, with multiple high-risk behaviours for both future poor health and violence. Associations between drug and alcohol dependence and violence in GE could not be entirely explained by deprivation. CONCLUSION: Violence in deprived urban areas is one among many high-risk behaviours and lifestyle factors leading to, as well as resulting from, aggregations of both psychiatric and physical health conditions. Poverty partly explained raised levels of violence in GE. Other factors such as drug and alcohol misuse and macho attitudes to violence, highly prevalent among men in this socially excluded community, also contributed. Multi-component preventive interventions may be needed in deprived areas and require future investigations into how multiple co-existing risk factors produce multimorbidity, including psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, poor physical health and violence.

Erratum to "A syndemic of psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and poor physical health among young Scottish men with reduced life expectancy" [SSM - Population Health 15(2021) 100858].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100858.].

Gang membership and sexual violence: associations with childhood maltreatment and psychiatric morbidity.

BACKGROUND: Gang members engage in many high-risk sexual activities that may be associated with psychiatric morbidity. Victim-focused research finds high prevalence of sexual violence towards women affiliated with gangs. AIMS: To investigate associations between childhood maltreatment and psychiatric morbidity on coercive and high-risk sexual behaviour among gang members. METHOD: Cross-sectional survey of 4665 men 18-34 years in Great Britain using random location sampling. The survey oversampled men from areas with high levels of violence and gang membership. Participants completed questionnaires covering violent and sexual behaviours, experiences of childhood disadvantage and trauma, and psychiatric diagnoses using standardised instruments. RESULTS: Antisocial men and gang members had high levels of sexual violence and multiple risk behaviours for sexually transmitted infections, childhood maltreatment and mental disorders, including addictions. Physical, sexual and emotional trauma were strongly associated with adult sexual behaviour and more prevalent among gang members. Other violent behaviour, psychiatric morbidity and addictions accounted for high-risk and compulsive sexual behaviours among gang members but not antisocial men. Gang members showed precursors before age 15 years of adult preference for coercive rather than consenting sexual behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Gang members show inordinately high levels of childhood trauma and disadvantage, sexual and non-sexual violence, and psychiatric disorders, which are interrelated. The public health problem of sexual victimisation of affiliated women is explained by these findings. Healthcare professionals may have difficulties promoting desistance from adverse health-related behaviours among gang members whose multiple high-risk and violent sexual behaviours are associated with psychiatric morbidity, particularly addictions.

Ethnic disparities in psychotic experiences explained by area-level syndemic effects.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic inequalities in health outcomes are often explained by socioeconomic status and concentrated poverty. However, ethnic disparities in psychotic experiences are not completely attenuated by these factors. AIMS: We investigated whether disparities are better explained by interactions between individual risk factors and place-based clustering of disadvantage, termed a syndemic. METHOD: We performed a cross-sectional survey of 3750 UK men, aged 18-34 years, oversampling Black and minority ethnic (BME) men nationally, together with men residing in London Borough of Hackney. Participants completed questionnaires covering psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, crime and violence, and risky sexual health behaviours. We included five psychotic experiences and a categorical measure of psychosis based on the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire. RESULTS: At national level, more Black men reported psychotic experiences but disparities disappeared following statistical adjustment for social position. However, large disparities for psychotic experiences in Hackney were not attenuated by adjustment for social factors in Black men (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24; 95% CI 2.14-4.91; P < 0.002), but were for South Asian men. A syndemic model of joint effects, adducing a four-component latent variable (psychotic experiences and anxiety, substance dependence, high-risk sexual behaviour and violence and criminality) showed synergy between components and explained persistent disparities in psychotic experiences. A further interaction confirmed area-level effects (Black ethnicity × Hackney residence, 0.834; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Syndemic effects result in higher rates of non-affective psychosis among BME persons in certain inner-urban settings. Further research should investigate how syndemics raise levels of psychotic experiences and related health conditions in Black men in specific places with multiple deprivations.

Shifts in positive and negative psychotic symptoms and anger: effects on violence.

BACKGROUND: Changes in positive and negative symptom profiles during acute psychotic episodes may be key drivers in the pathway to violence. Acute episodes are often preceded by fluctuations in affect before psychotic symptoms appear and affective symptoms may play a more important role in the pathway than previously recognised. METHODS: We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Information on violence was obtained using the McArthur Community Violence Instrument and Police National Computer. RESULTS: The larger the shift in positive symptoms the more likely violence occurred in each 6-month period. However, shifts in angry affect were the main driving factor for positive symptom shifts associated with violence. Shifts in negative symptoms co-occurred with positive and conveyed protective effects, but these were overcome by co-occurring shifts in anger. Severe but stable delusions were independently associated with violence. CONCLUSIONS: Intensification of angry affect during acute episodes of psychosis indicates the need for interventions to prevent violence and is a key driver of associated positive symptoms in the pathway to violence. Protective effects against violence exerted by negative symptoms are not clinically observable during symptom shifts because they are overcome by co-occurring anger.

Urban Birth, Urban Living, and Work Migrancy: Differential Effects on Psychotic Experiences Among Young Chinese Men.

Background: Urban birth and urban living are associated with increased risk of schizophrenia but less is known about effects on more common psychotic experiences (PEs). China has undergone the most rapid urbanization of any country which may have affected the population-level expression of psychosis. We therefore investigated effects of urbanicity, work migrancy, and residential stability on prevalence and severity of PEs. Methods: Population-based, 2-wave household survey of psychiatric morbidity and health-related behavior among 4132 men, 18-34 years of age living in urban and rural Greater Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China. PEs were measured using the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire. Results: 1261 (31%) of young men experienced at least 1 PE. Lower levels of PEs were not associated with urbanicity, work migrancy or residential stability. Urban birth was associated with reporting 3 or more PEs (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.25-2.11), after multivariable adjustment, with further evidence (P = .01) this effect was restricted to those currently living in urban environments (OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.16-2.72). Men experiencing a maximum of 5 PEs were over 8 times more likely to have been born in an urban area (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 8.81; 95% CI 1.50-51.79). Conclusions: Men in Chengdu, China, experience a high prevalence of PEs. This may be explained by rapid urbanization and residential instability. Urban birth was specifically associated with high, but not lower, severity levels of PEs, particularly amongst those currently living in urban environments. This suggests that early and sustained environmental exposures may be associated with more severe phenotypes.

A cross-national comparison of violence among young men in China and the UK: psychiatric and cultural explanations.

PURPOSE: Public health psychiatry has a key role in violence prevention. Cross-national comparisons of violence and associated psychiatric morbidity can indicate targets for preventive interventions. METHOD: Data on young adult men in households, 18-34 years, were drawn from the Second Men's Modern Lifestyles survey in Great Britain (n = 2046) and from a corresponding survey in Chengdu, China (n = 4132), using a translated questionnaire. Binary logistic regression models were carried out to estimate the cross-national differences for different types of violence and to identify explanatory variables. RESULTS: Chinese men were less likely to report violence in the past 5 years (AOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.48-0.72, P < 0.001). All levels of violence were lower among Chinese men except intimate partner violence (AOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.65-3.59, P < 0.001) and a higher proportion of Chinese men were only violent towards their partners (AOR 7.90, 95% CI 3.27-19.07, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Cross-national differences were explained by British men's reports of early violence persisting into adulthood, confidence in fighting ability, perception that violence is acceptable behaviour, and experience of violent victimization. More British men screened positive for antisocial personality disorder and substance misuse. Attitudes which condone violence and a serious problem of alcohol-related, male-on-male violence are key targets for preventive interventions among British men. The higher prevalence of life course-persistent antisocial behaviour among British men is of concern and requires further investigation. Higher prevalence of intimate partner violence among Chinese men reflects patriarchal approaches to conflict resolution and confirms an important public health problem in China which requires further cross-national investigation.

Extremism, religion and psychiatric morbidity in a population-based sample of young men.

BACKGROUND: There is growing risk from terrorism following radicalisation of young men. It is unclear whether psychopathology is associated. AIMS: To investigate the population distribution of extremist views among UK men. METHOD: Cross-sectional study of 3679 men, 18-34 years, in Great Britain. Multivariate analyses of attitudes, psychiatric morbidity, ethnicity and religion. RESULTS: Pro-British men were more likely to be White, UK born, not religious; anti-British were Muslim, religious, of Pakistani origin, from deprived areas. Pro- and anti-British views were linearly associated with violence (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.51, 95% CI 1.38-1.64, P<0.001, adjusted OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.13-1.58, P<0.001, respectively) and negatively with depression (adjusted OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.61-0.85, P<0.001, adjusted OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.86, P = 0.003, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Men at risk of depression may experience protection from strong cultural or religious identity. Antisocial behaviour increases with extremism. Religion is protective but may determine targets of violence following radicalisation.

Paranoid Ideation and Violence: Meta-analysis of Individual Subject Data of 7 Population Surveys.

There is controversy whether associations between psychosis and violence are due to coexisting substance misuse and factors increasing risk in nonpsychotic persons. Recent studies in clinical samples have implicated independent effects of paranoid delusions. Research findings suggest that individual psychotic-like-experiences on the psychosis continuum in the general population are associated with violence; it remains unclear whether this association is due to psychiatric comorbidity. We pooled data from 7 UK general population surveys (n = 23 444) and conducted a meta-analysis of individual subject data. Further meta-analyses were performed to identify heterogeneity. Main exposure variables: 5 psychotic-like-experiences and a categorical measure of psychosis. Comorbidity was established through standardized self-report instruments. Information was collected on violence, severity, victims. Paranoid ideation was associated with violence (AOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.75-2.91), severity and frequency, even when controlling for effects of other psychotic-like-experiences. Associations were not explained by comorbid conditions, including substance dependence. Psychotic disorder was associated with violence and injury to the perpetrator but associations were explained by paranoid ideation. Individual associations between hypomania, thought insertion, hallucinations, and violence were nonsignificant after adjustments, and significantly associated only when comorbid with antisocial personality disorder. Strange experiences were only associated with intimate partner violence. Paranoid ideation on a psychosis-continuum in the general population was associated with violence. All other associations were explained by comorbidity. Further investigation should determine whether paranoid ideation among persons in the community require preventive interventions, similar to those presenting to mental health services. Nevertheless, risks are considerably increased for psychotic-like-experiences with co-occurring antisocial personality disorder.

Childhood maltreatment and violence: mediation through psychiatric morbidity.

Childhood maltreatment is associated with multiple adverse outcomes in adulthood including poor mental health and violence. We investigated direct and indirect pathways from childhood maltreatment to adult violence perpetration and the explanatory role of psychiatric morbidity. Analyses were based on a population survey of 2,928 young men 21-34 years in Great Britain in 2011, with boost surveys of black and minority ethnic groups and lower social grades. Respondents completed questionnaires measuring psychiatric diagnoses using standardized screening instruments, including antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), drug and alcohol dependence and psychosis. Maltreatment exposures included childhood physical abuse, neglect, witnessing domestic violence and being bullied. Adult violence outcomes included: any violence, violence toward strangers and intimate partners (IPV), victim injury and minor violence. Witnessing domestic violence showed the strongest risk for adult violence (AOR 2.70, 95% CI 2.00, 3.65) through a direct pathway, with psychotic symptoms and ASPD as partial mediators. Childhood physical abuse was associated with IPV (AOR 2.33, 95% CI 1.25, 4.35), mediated by ASPD and alcohol dependence. Neglect was associated with violence toward strangers (AOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.03, 2.91), mediated by ASPD. Prevention of violence in adulthood following childhood physical abuse and neglect requires treatment interventions for associated alcohol dependence, psychosis, and ASPD. However, witnessing family violence in childhood had strongest and direct effects on the pathway to adult violence, with important implications for primary prevention. In this context, prevention strategies should prioritize and focus on early childhood exposure to violence in the family home.

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients.

BACKGROUND: Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. METHODS: We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. RESULTS: In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85-12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44-8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21-16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08-0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. CONCLUSIONS: Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors causally associated with violence.

Criminal justice pathways to psychiatric care for psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Some patients are at higher risk of contact with criminal justice agencies when experiencing a first episode of psychosis. AIMS: To investigate whether violence explains criminal justice pathways (CJPs) for psychosis in general, and ethnic vulnerability to CJPs. METHOD: Two-year population-based survey of people presenting with a first-episode of psychosis. A total of 481 patients provided information on pathways to psychiatric care. The main outcome was a CJP at first contact compared with other services on the care pathway. RESULTS: CJPs were more common if there was violence at first presentation (odds ratio (OR) = 4.23, 95% CI 2.74-6.54, P<0.001), drug use in the previous year (OR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.50-3.48, P<0.001) and for high psychopathy scores (OR = 2.54, 95% CI 1.43-4.53, P = 0.002). Compared with White British, CJPs were more common among Black Caribbean (OR = 2.97, 95% CI 1.54-5.72, P<0.001) and Black African patients (OR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.02-3.72, P = 0.01). Violence mediated 30.2% of the association for Black Caribbeans, but was not a mediator for Black African patients. These findings were sustained after adjustment for age, marital status, gender and employment. CONCLUSIONS: CJPs were more common in violent presentations, for greater psychopathy levels and drug use. Violence presentations did not fully explain ethnic vulnerability to CJPs.

Psychiatric diagnosis and differential risks of offending following discharge.

Psychiatric diagnosis is not considered a risk factor for offending following discharge. However, treatment interventions and aftercare are strongly influenced by clinical primary diagnosis. We compared differential risks of reoffending of patients falling into six primary diagnostic categories following discharge from Medium Secure Units in the UK: schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder; delusional disorder; mania/hypomania; depressive disorder; organic brain syndrome; personality disorder. We followed up 1344 patients, on average 6.2 years (SD=2.1) at risk, discharged from 7 of 14 Regional Medium Secure services in England and Wales. Outcomes were period prevalence, incidence, and cumulative probability of criminal conviction. Established demographic and criminal history predictors of reoffending were observed across different diagnostic categories. Risks of all offending were increased for personality disorder, violence/acquisitive offending for delusional disorder, sexual offending for mania/hypomania and violence/acquisitive offending for organic brain syndrome. Patterns of risk over time differed markedly between categories of mental disorder. Most patients with personality disorder who offended violently did so within 4 years of discharge. A subgroup with delusional disorder demonstrated increased risk of violent offending 5 years after discharge. Differential risks of reoffending are observed between different diagnostic groups. Clinical diagnosis should be included together with established risk measures in risk management following discharge. Close supervision of patients with personality disorder should begin immediately after discharge when risks of reoffending are greatest. For delusional disorder further investigation is needed into the marked increase in risk of violence after 5 years.

Discharges to prison from medium secure psychiatric units in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Early findings from a national study of discharges from 32 National Health Service medium secure units revealed that nearly twice as many patients than expected were discharged back to prison. AIMS: To compare the characteristics of those discharged back to prison with those discharged to the community, and consider the implications for ongoing care and risk. METHOD: Prospective cohort follow-up design. All forensic patients discharged from 32 medium secure units across England and Wales over a 12-month period were identified. Those discharged to prison were compared with those who were discharged to the community. RESULTS: Nearly half of the individuals discharged to prison were diagnosed with a serious mental illness and over a third with schizophrenia. They were a higher risk, more likely to have a personality disorder, more symptomatic and less motivated than those discharged to the community. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that alternative models of prison mental healthcare should be considered to reduce risks to the patient and the public.

Which pathways to psychiatric care lead to earlier treatment and a shorter duration of first-episode psychosis?

BACKGROUND: The pathways to care in a first onset psychosis are diverse and may influence the chances of early treatment and therefore the duration of untreated psychosis. We test which pathways to care are associated with a delay in receiving treatment and a longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP). METHODS: In a population based survey, we interviewed 480 people with first episode psychosis aged 18 to 64 years over a 2-year period. Information from structured interview and case files provided DSM-IV diagnostic, clinical, and demographic information. Consecutive contacts in the care pathway were mapped using the World Health Organisation's Encounter Form. Using information from all sources, DUP was defined as time from symptom onset to first treatment with antipsychotic medication. RESULTS: The most common first contacts were primary care physicians (35.2%), emergency rooms in general hospital settings (21.3%), and criminal justice agencies (25.4%). In multivariate regression models, compared to DUP for those first in contact with primary care, DUP was shortest for first encounters with psychiatric emergency clinics (RR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.23-0.71) and longest for first encounters with criminal justice agencies (RR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1-2.58). Older age was associated with a longer DUP (RR = 1.01 per year, 95% CI: 1-1.04). A shorter DUP was associated with a diagnosis of mania and affective psychoses-NOS compared with schizophrenia (RR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.14-0.35; RR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.06-0.54, respectively), for Black compared with White ethnicity (RR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.34-0.82), and for each close person in the social network (RR = 0.9, 95% CI: 0.84-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: To further reduce DUP, better links are needed between primary care, emergency rooms, criminal justice and psychiatric services.

Association of violence with emergence of persecutory delusions in untreated schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Psychosis is considered an important risk factor for violence, but studies show inconsistent results. The mechanism through which psychotic disorders influence violence also remains uncertain. The authors investigated whether psychosis increased the risk of violent behavior among released prisoners and whether treatment reduced this risk. They also explored whether active symptoms of psychosis at the time of violent behavior explained associations between untreated psychosis and violence. METHOD: The U.K. Prisoner Cohort Study is a prospective longitudinal study of prisoners followed up in the community after release. Adult male and female offenders serving sentences of 2 or more years for a sexual or violent offense were classified into four groups: no psychosis (N=742), schizophrenia (N=94), delusional disorder (N=29), and drug-induced psychosis (N=102). Symptoms of psychosis, including hallucinations, thought insertion, strange experiences, and delusions of persecution, were measured before and after release. Information on violence between release and follow-up was collected through self-report and police records. RESULTS: Schizophrenia was associated with violence but only in the absence of treatment (odds ratio=3.76, 95% CI=1.39-10.19). Untreated schizophrenia was associated with the emergence of persecutory delusions at follow-up (odds ratio=3.52, 95% CI=1.18-10.52), which were associated with violence (odds ratio=3.68, 95% CI=2.44-5.55). The mediating effects of persecutory delusions were confirmed in mediation analyses (ß=0.02, 95% CI=0.01-0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the emergence of persecutory delusions in untreated schizophrenia explains violent behavior. Maintaining psychiatric treatment after release can substantially reduce violent recidivism among prisoners with schizophrenia. Better screening and treatment of prisoners is therefore essential to prevent violence.