A phylogenomic perspective on interspecific competition.

Evolutionary processes may have substantial impacts on community assembly, but evidence for phylogenetic relatedness as a determinant of interspecific interaction strength remains mixed. In this perspective, we consider a possible role for discordance between gene trees and species trees in the interpretation of phylogenetic signal in studies of community ecology. Modern genomic data show that the evolutionary histories of many taxa are better described by a patchwork of histories that vary along the genome rather than a single species tree. If a subset of genomic loci harbour trait-related genetic variation, then the phylogeny at these loci may be more informative of interspecific trait differences than the genome background. We develop a simple method to detect loci harbouring phylogenetic signal and demonstrate its application through a proof-of-principle analysis of Penicillium genomes and pairwise interaction strength. Our results show that phylogenetic signal that may be masked genome-wide could be detectable using phylogenomic techniques and may provide a window into the genetic basis for interspecific interactions.

Selection on Visual Opsin Genes in Diurnal Neotropical Frogs and Loss of the SWS2 Opsin in Poison Frogs.

Amphibians are ideal for studying visual system evolution because their biphasic (aquatic and terrestrial) life history and ecological diversity expose them to a broad range of visual conditions. Here, we evaluate signatures of selection on visual opsin genes across Neotropical anurans and focus on three diurnal clades that are well-known for the concurrence of conspicuous colors and chemical defense (i.e., aposematism): poison frogs (Dendrobatidae), Harlequin toads (Bufonidae: Atelopus), and pumpkin toadlets (Brachycephalidae: Brachycephalus). We found evidence of positive selection on 44 amino acid sites in LWS, SWS1, SWS2, and RH1 opsin genes, of which one in LWS and two in RH1 have been previously identified as spectral tuning sites in other vertebrates. Given that anurans have mostly nocturnal habits, the patterns of selection revealed new sites that might be important in spectral tuning for frogs, potentially for adaptation to diurnal habits and for color-based intraspecific communication. Furthermore, we provide evidence that SWS2, normally expressed in rod cells in frogs and some salamanders, has likely been lost in the ancestor of Dendrobatidae, suggesting that under low-light levels, dendrobatids have inferior wavelength discrimination compared to other frogs. This loss might follow the origin of diurnal activity in dendrobatids and could have implications for their behavior. Our analyses show that assessments of opsin diversification in across taxa could expand our understanding of the role of sensory system evolution in ecological adaptation.

Multimodal pathogen transmission as a limiting factor in host distribution.

Theoretical models suggest that infectious diseases could play a substantial role in determining the spatial extent of host species, but few studies have collected the empirical data required to test this hypothesis. Pathogens that sterilize their hosts or spread through frequency-dependent transmission could have especially strong effects on the limits of species' distributions because diseased hosts that are sterilized but not killed may continue to produce infectious stages and frequency-dependent transmission mechanisms are effective even at very low population densities. We collected spatial pathogen prevalence data and population abundance data for alpine carnations infected by the sterilizing pathogen Microbotryum dianthorum, a parasite that is spread through both frequency-dependent (vector-borne) and density-dependent (aerial spore transmission) mechanisms. Our 13-year study reveals rapid declines in population abundance without a compensatory decrease in pathogen prevalence. We apply a stochastic, spatial model of parasite spread that accommodates spatial habitat heterogeneity to investigate how the population dynamics depend on multimodal (frequency-dependent and density-dependent) transmission. We found that the observed rate of population decline could plausibly be explained by multimodal transmission, but is unlikely to be explained by either frequency-dependent or density-dependent mechanisms alone. Multimodal pathogen transmission rates high enough to explain the observed decline predicted that eventual local extinction of the host species is highly likely. Our results add to a growing body of literature showing how multimodal transmission can constrain species distributions in nature.

Revisiting the malaria hypothesis: accounting for polygenicity and pleiotropy.

The malaria hypothesis predicts local, balancing selection of deleterious alleles that confer strong protection from malaria. Three protective variants, recently discovered in red cell genes, are indeed more common in African than European populations. Still, up to 89% of the heritability of severe malaria is attributed to many genome-wide loci with individually small effects. Recent analyses of hundreds of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in humans suggest that most functional, polygenic variation is pleiotropic for multiple traits. Interestingly, GWAS alleles and red cell traits associated with small reductions in malaria risk are not enriched in African populations. We propose that other selective and neutral forces, in addition to malaria prevalence, explain the global distribution of most genetic variation impacting malaria risk.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Understanding the emergence of contingent and deterministic exclusion in multispecies communities.

Competitive exclusion can be classified as deterministic or as historically contingent. While competitive exclusion is common in nature, it has remained unclear when multispecies communities formed by more than two species should be dominated by deterministic or contingent exclusion. Here, we take a fully parameterised model of an empirical competitive system between invasive annual and native perennial plant species to explain both the emergence and sources of competitive exclusion in multispecies communities. Using a structural approach to understand the range of parameters promoting deterministic and contingent exclusions, we then find heuristic theoretical support for the following three general conclusions. First, we find that the life-history of perennial species increases the probability of observing contingent exclusion by increasing their effective intrinsic growth rates. Second, we find that the probability of observing contingent exclusion increases with weaker intraspecific competition, and not with the level of hierarchical competition. Third, we find a shift from contingent exclusion to deterministic exclusion with increasing numbers of competing species. Our work provides a heuristic framework to increase our understanding about the predictability of species persistence within multispecies communities.

Evolutionary perspectives on polygenic selection, missing heritability, and GWAS.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified many trait-associated variants, but there is still much we do not know about the genetic basis of complex traits. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical literature regarding selection on complex traits to argue that "missing heritability" is as much an evolutionary problem as it is a statistical problem. We discuss empirical findings that suggest a role for selection in shaping the effect sizes and allele frequencies of causal variation underlying complex traits, and the limitations of these studies. We then use simulations of selection, realistic genome structure, and complex human demography to illustrate the results of recent theoretical work on polygenic selection, and show that statistical inference of causal loci is sharply affected by evolutionary processes. In particular, when selection acts on causal alleles, it hampers the ability to detect causal loci and constrains the transferability of GWAS results across populations. Last, we discuss the implications of these findings for future association studies, and suggest that future statistical methods to infer causal loci for genetic traits will benefit from explicit modeling of the joint distribution of effect sizes and allele frequencies under plausible evolutionary models.

Ultrarare variants drive substantial cis heritability of human gene expression.

The vast majority of human mutations have minor allele frequencies under 1%, with the plurality observed only once (that is, 'singletons'). While Mendelian diseases are predominantly caused by rare alleles, their cumulative contribution to complex phenotypes is largely unknown. We develop and rigorously validate an approach to jointly estimate the contribution of all alleles, including singletons, to phenotypic variation. We apply our approach to transcriptional regulation, an intermediate between genetic variation and complex disease. Using whole-genome DNA and lymphoblastoid cell line RNA sequencing data from 360 European individuals, we conservatively estimate that singletons contribute approximately 25% of cis heritability across genes (dwarfing the contributions of other frequencies). The majority (approximately 76%) of singleton heritability derives from ultrarare variants absent from thousands of additional samples. We develop an inference procedure to demonstrate that our results are consistent with pervasive purifying selection shaping the regulatory architecture of most human genes.

Exploiting selection at linked sites to infer the rate and strength of adaptation.

Genomic data encode past evolutionary events and have the potential to reveal the strength, rate and biological drivers of adaptation. However, joint estimation of adaptation rate (α) and adaptation strength remains challenging because evolutionary processes such as demography, linkage and non-neutral polymorphism can confound inference. Here, we exploit the influence of background selection to reduce the fixation rate of weakly beneficial alleles to jointly infer the strength and rate of adaptation. We develop a McDonald-Kreitman-based method to infer adaptation rate and strength, and estimate α = 0.135 in human protein-coding sequences, 72% of which is contributed by weakly adaptive variants. We show that, in this adaptation regime, α is reduced ~25% by linkage genome-wide. Moreover, we show that virus-interacting proteins undergo adaptation that is both stronger and nearly twice as frequent as the genome average (α = 0.224, 56% due to strongly beneficial alleles). Our results suggest that, while most adaptation in human proteins is weakly beneficial, adaptation to viruses is often strongly beneficial. Our method provides a robust framework for estimation of adaptation rate and strength across species.

Priority Effects and Nonhierarchical Competition Shape Species Composition in a Complex Grassland Community.

Niche and fitness differences control the outcome of competition, but determining their relative importance in invaded communities-which may be far from equilibrium-remains a pressing concern. Moreover, it is unclear whether classic approaches for studying competition, which were developed predominantly for pairs of interacting species, will fully capture dynamics in complex species assemblages. We parameterized a population-dynamic model using competition experiments of two native and three exotic species from a grassland community. We found evidence for minimal fitness differences or niche differences between the native species, leading to slow replacement dynamics and priority effects, but large fitness advantages allowed exotics to unconditionally invade natives. Priority effects driven by strong interspecific competition between exotic species drove single-species dominance by one of two exotic species in 80% of model outcomes, while a complex mixture of nonhierarchical competition and coexistence between native and exotic species occurred in the remaining 20%. Fungal infection, a commonly hypothesized coexistence mechanism, had weak fitness effects and is unlikely to substantially affect coexistence. In contrast to previous work on pairwise outcomes in largely native-dominated communities, our work supports a role for nearly neutral dynamics and priority effects as drivers of species composition in invaded communities.

An evolutionary compass for detecting signals of polygenic selection and mutational bias.

Selection and mutation shape the genetic variation underlying human traits, but the specific evolutionary mechanisms driving complex trait variation are largely unknown. We developed a statistical method that uses polarized genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from a single population to detect signals of mutational bias and selection. We found evidence for nonneutral signals on variation underlying several traits (body mass index [BMI], schizophrenia, Crohn's disease, educational attainment, and height). We then used simulations that incorporate simultaneous negative and positive selection to show that these signals are consistent with mutational bias and shifts in the fitness-phenotype relationship, but not stabilizing selection or mutational bias alone. We additionally replicate two of our top three signals (BMI and educational attainment) in an external cohort, and show that population stratification may have confounded GWAS summary statistics for height in the GIANT cohort. Our results provide a flexible and powerful framework for evolutionary analysis of complex phenotypes in humans and other species, and offer insights into the evolutionary mechanisms driving variation in human polygenic traits.

An admixture mapping meta-analysis implicates genetic variation at 18q21 with asthma susceptibility in Latinos.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a common but complex disease with racial/ethnic differences in prevalence, morbidity, and response to therapies. OBJECTIVE: We sought to perform an analysis of genetic ancestry to identify new loci that contribute to asthma susceptibility. METHODS: We leveraged the mixed ancestry of 3902 Latinos and performed an admixture mapping meta-analysis for asthma susceptibility. We replicated associations in an independent study of 3774 Latinos, performed targeted sequencing for fine mapping, and tested for disease correlations with gene expression in the whole blood of more than 500 subjects from 3 racial/ethnic groups. RESULTS: We identified a genome-wide significant admixture mapping peak at 18q21 in Latinos (P = 6.8 × 10-6), where Native American ancestry was associated with increased risk of asthma (odds ratio [OR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07-1.34; P = .002) and European ancestry was associated with protection (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96; P = .008). Our findings were replicated in an independent childhood asthma study in Latinos (P = 5.3 × 10-3, combined P = 2.6 × 10-7). Fine mapping of 18q21 in 1978 Latinos identified a significant association with multiple variants 5' of SMAD family member 2 (SMAD2) in Mexicans, whereas a single rare variant in the same window was the top association in Puerto Ricans. Low versus high SMAD2 blood expression was correlated with case status (13.4% lower expression; OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.12-7.28; P < .001). In addition, lower expression of SMAD2 was associated with more frequent exacerbations among Puerto Ricans with asthma. CONCLUSION: Ancestry at 18q21 was significantly associated with asthma in Latinos and implicated multiple ancestry-informative noncoding variants upstream of SMAD2 with asthma susceptibility. Furthermore, decreased SMAD2 expression in blood was strongly associated with increased asthma risk and increased exacerbations.

Selection and explosive growth alter genetic architecture and hamper the detection of causal rare variants.

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature.

An analytical upper bound on the number of loci required for all splits of a species tree to appear in a set of gene trees.

BACKGROUND: Many methods for species tree inference require data from a sufficiently large sample of genomic loci in order to produce accurate estimates. However, few studies have attempted to use analytical theory to quantify "sufficiently large". RESULTS: Using the multispecies coalescent model, we report a general analytical upper bound on the number of gene trees n required such that with probability q, each bipartition of a species tree is represented at least once in a set of n random gene trees. This bound employs a formula that is straightforward to compute, depends only on the minimum internal branch length of the species tree and the number of taxa, and applies irrespective of the species tree topology. Using simulations, we investigate numerical properties of the bound as well as its accuracy under the multispecies coalescent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are helpful for conservatively bounding the number of gene trees required by the ASTRAL inference method, and the approach has potential to be extended to bound other properties of gene tree sets under the model.

Population genetic simulations of complex phenotypes with implications for rare variant association tests.

Demographic events and natural selection alter patterns of genetic variation within populations and may play a substantial role in shaping the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes and disease. However, the joint impact of these basic evolutionary forces is often ignored in the assessment of statistical tests of association. Here, we provide a simulation-based framework for generating DNA sequences that incorporates selection and demography with flexible models for simulating phenotypic variation (sfs_coder). This tool also allows the user to perform locus-specific simulations by automatically querying annotated genomic functional elements and genetic maps. We demonstrate the effects of evolutionary forces on patterns of genetic variation by simulating recently inferred models of human selection and demography. We use these simulations to show that the demographic model and locus-specific features, such as the proportion of sites under selection, may have practical implications for estimating the statistical power of sequencing-based rare variant association tests. In particular, for some phenotype models, there may be higher power to detect rare variant associations in African populations compared to non-Africans, but power is considerably reduced in regions of the genome with rampant negative selection. Furthermore, we show that existing methods for simulating large samples based on resampling from a small set of observed haplotypes fail to recapitulate the distribution of rare variants in the presence of rapid population growth (as has been observed in several human populations).

Robust forward simulations of recurrent hitchhiking.

Evolutionary forces shape patterns of genetic diversity within populations and contribute to phenotypic variation. In particular, recurrent positive selection has attracted significant interest in both theoretical and empirical studies. However, most existing theoretical models of recurrent positive selection cannot easily incorporate realistic confounding effects such as interference between selected sites, arbitrary selection schemes, and complicated demographic processes. It is possible to quantify the effects of arbitrarily complex evolutionary models by performing forward population genetic simulations, but forward simulations can be computationally prohibitive for large population sizes (>10(5)). A common approach for overcoming these computational limitations is rescaling of the most computationally expensive parameters, especially population size. Here, we show that ad hoc approaches to parameter rescaling under the recurrent hitchhiking model do not always provide sufficiently accurate dynamics, potentially skewing patterns of diversity in simulated DNA sequences. We derive an extension of the recurrent hitchhiking model that is appropriate for strong selection in small population sizes and use it to develop a method for parameter rescaling that provides the best possible computational performance for a given error tolerance. We perform a detailed theoretical analysis of the robustness of rescaling across the parameter space. Finally, we apply our rescaling algorithms to parameters that were previously inferred for Drosophila and discuss practical considerations such as interference between selected sites.

Accurate imputation of rare and common variants in a founder population from a small number of sequenced individuals.

Advances in DNA sequencing technologies have greatly facilitated the discovery of rare genetic variants in the human genome, many of which may contribute to common disease risk. However, evaluating their individual or even collective effects on disease risk requires very large sample sizes, which involves study designs that are often prohibitively expensive. We present an alternative approach for determining genotypes in large numbers of individuals for all variants discovered in the sequence of relatively few individuals. Specifically, we developed a new imputation algorithm that utilizes whole-exome sequencing data from 25 members of the South Dakota Hutterite population, and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes from >1,400 individuals from the same founder population. The algorithm relies on identity-by-descent sharing of phased haplotypes, a different strategy than the linkage disequilibrium methods found in most imputation algorithms. We imputed genotypes discovered in the sequence data to on average ∼77% of chromosomes among the 1,400 individuals. Median R(2) between imputed and directly genotyped data was >0.99. As expected, many variants that are vanishingly rare in European populations have risen to larger frequencies in the founder population and would be amenable to single-SNP analyses.

Population genetics of rare variants and complex diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying drivers of complex traits from the noisy signals of genetic variation obtained from high-throughput genome sequencing technologies is a central challenge faced by human geneticists today. We hypothesize that the variants involved in complex diseases are likely to exhibit non-neutral evolutionary signatures. Uncovering the evolutionary history of all variants is therefore of intrinsic interest for complex disease research. However, doing so necessitates the simultaneous elucidation of the targets of natural selection and population-specific demographic history. METHODS: Here we characterize the action of natural selection operating across complex disease categories, and use population genetic simulations to evaluate the expected patterns of genetic variation in large samples. We focus on populations that have experienced historical bottlenecks followed by explosive growth (consistent with many human populations), and describe the differences between evolutionarily deleterious mutations and those that are neutral. RESULTS: Genes associated with several complex disease categories exhibit stronger signatures of purifying selection than non-disease genes. In addition, loci identified through genome-wide association studies of complex traits also exhibit signatures consistent with being in regions recurrently targeted by purifying selection. Through simulations, we show that population bottlenecks and rapid growth enable deleterious rare variants to persist at low frequencies just as long as neutral variants, but low-frequency and common variants tend to be much younger than neutral variants. This has resulted in a large proportion of modern-day rare alleles that have a deleterious effect on function and that potentially contribute to disease susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: The key question for sequencing-based association studies of complex traits is how to distinguish between deleterious and benign genetic variation. We used population genetic simulations to uncover patterns of genetic variation that distinguish these two categories, especially derived allele age, thereby providing inroads into novel methods for characterizing rare genetic variation driving complex diseases.

Inflammasome-mediated production of IL-1beta is required for neutrophil recruitment against Staphylococcus aureus in vivo.

IL-1R activation is required for neutrophil recruitment in an effective innate immune response against Staphylococcus aureus infection. In this study, we investigated the mechanism of IL-1R activation in vivo in a model of S. aureus infection. In response to a S. aureus cutaneous challenge, mice deficient in IL-1beta, IL-1alpha/IL-1beta, but not IL-1alpha, developed larger lesions with higher bacterial counts and had decreased neutrophil recruitment compared with wild-type mice. Neutrophil recruitment and bacterial clearance required IL-1beta expression by bone marrow (BM)-derived cells and not by non-BM-derived resident cells. In addition, mice deficient in the inflammasome component apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase recruitment domain (ASC) had the same defects in neutrophil recruitment and host defense as IL-1beta-deficient mice, demonstrating an essential role for the inflammasome in mediating the production of active IL-1beta to promote neutrophil recruitment in host defense against S. aureus. This finding was further supported by the ability of recombinant active IL-1beta to control the infection and promote bacterial clearance in IL-1beta-deficient mice. These studies define a key host defense circuit where inflammasome-mediated IL-1beta production by BM-derived cells signals IL-1R on non-BM-derived resident cells to activate neutrophil recruitment in the innate immune response against S. aureus in vivo.