Using EGARCH models to predict volatility in unconsolidated financial markets: the case of European carbon allowances.

The growing interest and direct impact of carbon trading in the economy have drawn an increasing attention to the evolution of the price of CO2 allowances (European Union Allowances, EUAs) under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). As a novel financial market, the dynamic analysis of its volatility is essential for policymakers to assess market efficiency and for investors to carry out an adequate risk management on carbon emission rights. In this research, the main autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models were applied to evaluate and analyze the volatility of daily data of the European carbon future prices, focusing on the last finished phase of market operations (phase III, 2013-2020), which is structurally and significantly different from previous phases. Some empirical findings derive from the results obtained. First, the EGARCH (1,1) model exhibits a superior ability to describe the price volatility even using fewer parameters, partly because it allows to collect the sign of the changes produced over time. In this model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is lower than ARCH (4) and GARCH (1,1) models, and all its coefficients are significative (p < 0.02). Second, a sustained increase in prices is detected at the end of phase III, which makes it possible to foresee a stabilization path with higher prices for the first years of phase IV. These changes will motivate both companies and individual energy investors to be proactive in making decisions about the risk management on carbon allowances.

Committed to Health: Key Factors to Improve Users' Online Engagement through Facebook.

Health organizations, continuously exposed to public scrutiny due to the social relevance of the services provided, have adopted social media to disseminate information about health but also about themselves, and thus, reducing uncertainty and improving communication. In this context, users' participation in social media has become one of the main indicators of their effectiveness, highlighting the importance of analyzing which factors enhance online engagement. This research extends the number of variables identified in prior studies and analyzes 19,817 Facebook posts from 126 health organizations. Using multivariate linear regression, explanatory results show that economic and organizational attributes, and factors related to the social media posts, both contribute significantly to explain the engagement reached in social media by those organizations. According to our findings, health organizations are not taking enough advantage of social media to engage with their current and potential users. The dissemination of relevant information using visually attractive formats could help draw the attention of consumers, both to reach a higher commitment with the organization and to create value for society.

Robust, 3-Dimensional Visualization of Human Colon Enteric Nervous System Without Tissue Sectioning.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Small, 2-dimensional sections routinely used for human pathology analysis provide limited information about bowel innervation. We developed a technique to image human enteric nervous system (ENS) and other intramural cells in 3 dimensions. METHODS: Using mouse and human colon tissues, we developed a method that combines tissue clearing, immunohistochemistry, confocal microscopy, and quantitative analysis of full-thickness bowel without sectioning to quantify ENS and other intramural cells in 3 dimensions. RESULTS: We provided 280 adult human colon confocal Z-stacks from persons without known bowel motility disorders. Most of our images were of myenteric ganglia, captured using a 20× objective lens. Full-thickness colon images, viewed with a 10× objective lens, were as large as 4 × 5 mm2. Colon from 2 pediatric patients with Hirschsprung disease was used to show distal colon without enteric ganglia, as well as a transition zone and proximal pull-through resection margin where ENS was present. After testing a panel of antibodies with our method, we identified 16 antibodies that bind to molecules in neurons, glia, interstitial cells of Cajal, and muscularis macrophages. Quantitative analyses demonstrated myenteric plexus in 24.5% ± 2.4% of flattened colon Z-stack area. Myenteric ganglia occupied 34% ± 4% of myenteric plexus. Single myenteric ganglion volume averaged 3,527,678 ± 573,832 mm3 with 38,706 ± 5763 neuron/mm3 and 129,321 ± 25,356 glia/mm3. Images of large areas provided insight into why published values of ENS density vary up to 150-fold-ENS density varies greatly, across millimeters, so analyses of small numbers of thin sections from the same bowel region can produce varying results. Neuron subtype analysis revealed that approximately 56% of myenteric neurons stained with neuronal nitric oxide synthase antibody and approximately 33% of neurons produce and store acetylcholine. Transition zone regions from colon tissues of patients with Hirschsprung disease had ganglia in multiple layers and thick nerve fiber bundles without neurons. Submucosal neuron distribution varied among imaged colon regions. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a 3-dimensional imaging method for colon that provides more information about ENS structure than tissue sectioning. This approach could improve diagnosis for human bowel motility disorders and may be useful for other bowel diseases as well.

Virome capture sequencing does not identify active viral infection in unicentric and idiopathic multicentric Castleman disease.

Castleman disease (CD) describes a spectrum of heterogeneous disorders defined by characteristic lymph node histopathology. Enlarged lymph nodes demonstrating CD histopathology can occur in isolation (unicentric CD; UCD) sometimes accompanied by mild symptoms, or at multiple sites (multicentric CD, MCD) with systemic inflammation and cytokine-driven multi-organ dysfunction. The discovery that Kaposi sarcoma herpesvirus/human herpesvirus (HHV)-8 drives MCD in a subset of patients has led to the hypotheses that UCD and MCD patients with negative HHV-8 testing by conventional methods may represent false negatives, or that these cases are driven by another virus, known or unknown. To investigate these hypotheses, the virome capture sequencing for vertebrate viruses (VirCapSeq-VERT) platform was employed to detect RNA transcripts from known and novel viruses in fresh frozen lymph node tissue from CD patients (12 UCD, 11 HHV-8-negative MCD [idiopathic MCD; iMCD], and two HHV-8-positive MCD) and related diseases (three T cell lymphoma and three Hodgkin lymphoma). This assay detected HHV-8 in both HHV-8-positive cases; however, HHV-8 was not found in clinically HHV-8-negative iMCD or UCD cases. Additionally, no novel viruses were discovered, and no single known virus was detected with apparent association to HHV-8-negative CD cases. Herpesviridae family members, notably including Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), were detected in 7 out of 12 UCD and 5 of 11 iMCD cases with apparent correlations with markers of disease severity in iMCD. Analysis of a separate cohort of archival formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded lymph node tissue by In situ hybridization revealed significantly fewer EBV-positive cells in UCD and iMCD compared to tissue from HHV-8-positive MCD and EBV-associated lymphoproliferative disorder. In an additional cohort, quantitative testing for EBV by PCR in peripheral blood during disease flare did not detect systemic EBV viremia, suggesting detection lymph node tissue is due to occult, local reactivation in UCD and iMCD. This study confirms that HHV-8 is not present in UCD and iMCD patients. Further, it fails to establish a clear association between any single virus, novel or known, and CD in HHV-8-negative cases. Given that distinct forms of CD exist with viral and non-viral etiological drivers, CD should be considered a group of distinct and separate diseases with heterogeneous causes worthy of further study.

National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank: A Platform for Collaborative Research and Mesothelioma Biobanking Resource to Support Translational Research.

The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank (NMVB), developed six years ago, gathers clinically annotated human mesothelioma specimens for basic and clinical science research. During this period, this resource has greatly increased its collection of specimens by expanding the number of contributing academic health centers including New York University, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, and Mount Sinai School of Medicine. Marketing efforts at both national and international annual conferences increase awareness and availability of the mesothelioma specimens at no cost to approved investigators, who query the web-based NMVB database for cumulative and appropriate patient clinicopathological information on the specimens. The data disclosure and specimen distribution protocols are tightly regulated to maintain compliance with participating institutions' IRB and regulatory committee reviews. The NMVB currently has over 1120 annotated cases available for researchers, including paraffin embedded tissues, fresh frozen tissue, tissue microarrays (TMA), blood samples, and genomic DNA. In addition, the resource offers expertise and assistance for collaborative research. Furthermore, in the last six years, the resource has provided hundreds of specimens to the research community. The investigators can request specimens and/or data by submitting a Letter of Intent (LOI) that is evaluated by NMVB research evaluation panel (REP).

National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank: a standard based biospecimen and clinical data resource to enhance translational research.

BACKGROUND: Advances in translational research have led to the need for well characterized biospecimens for research. The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank is an initiative which collects annotated datasets relevant to human mesothelioma to develop an enterprising biospecimen resource to fulfill researchers' need. METHODS: The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank architecture is based on three major components: (a) common data elements (based on College of American Pathologists protocol and National North American Association of Central Cancer Registries standards), (b) clinical and epidemiologic data annotation, and (c) data query tools. These tools work interoperably to standardize the entire process of annotation. The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank tool is based upon the caTISSUE Clinical Annotation Engine, developed by the University of Pittsburgh in cooperation with the Cancer Biomedical Informatics Grid (caBIG, see http://cabig.nci.nih.gov). This application provides a web-based system for annotating, importing and searching mesothelioma cases. The underlying information model is constructed utilizing Unified Modeling Language class diagrams, hierarchical relationships and Enterprise Architect software. RESULT: The database provides researchers real-time access to richly annotated specimens and integral information related to mesothelioma. The data disclosed is tightly regulated depending upon users' authorization and depending on the participating institute that is amenable to the local Institutional Review Board and regulation committee reviews. CONCLUSION: The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank currently has over 600 annotated cases available for researchers that include paraffin embedded tissues, tissue microarrays, serum and genomic DNA. The National Mesothelioma Virtual Bank is a virtual biospecimen registry with robust translational biomedical informatics support to facilitate basic science, clinical, and translational research. Furthermore, it protects patient privacy by disclosing only de-identified datasets to assure that biospecimens can be made accessible to researchers.