Development and Validation of Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Chronic Zinc Toxicity to Freshwater Microalgae.

Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed for predicting chronic zinc toxicity to a freshwater microalga, Chlorella sp., using three toxicity-modifying factors (TMFs): pH, hardness, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The interactive effects between pH and hardness and between pH and DOC were also included. Models were developed at three different effect concentration (EC) levels: EC10, EC20, and EC50. Models were independently validated using six different zinc-spiked Australian natural waters with a range of water chemistries. Stepwise regression found hardness to be an influential TMF in model scenarios and was retained in all final models, while pH, DOC, and interactive terms had variable influence and were only retained in some models. Autovalidation and residual analysis of all models indicated that models generally predicted toxicity and that there was little bias based on individual TMFs. The MLR models, at all effect levels, performed poorly when predicting toxicity in the zinc-spiked natural waters during independent validation, with models consistently overpredicting toxicity. This overprediction may be from another unaccounted for TMF that may be present across all natural waters. Alternatively, this consistent overprediction questions the underlying assumption that models developed from synthetic laboratory test waters can be directly applied to natural water samples. Further research into the suitability of applying synthetic laboratory water-based models to a greater range of natural waters is needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2630-2641. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Natural organic matter source, concentration, and pH influences the toxicity of zinc to a freshwater microalga.

Zinc is a contaminant of concern in aquatic environments and is a known toxicant to many aquatic organisms. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a toxicity modifying factor for zinc and is an important water chemistry parameter. This study investigated the influence of DOM concentration, source, and water pH on the chronic toxicity of zinc to a freshwater microalga, Chlorella sp. The influence of DOM on zinc toxicity was dependent on both concentration and source. In the absence of DOM, the 72-h EC50 was 112 µg Zn.L-1. In the presence of a DOM high in fulvic-like components, zinc toxicity was either slightly decreased (<4-fold increase in EC10s across 15 mg C.L-1 range) or unchanged (minimal difference in EC50s). In the presence of a DOM high in humic-like (aromatic and high molecular weight) components, zinc toxicity was slightly decreased at the EC10 level and strongly increased at the EC50 level. The influence of pH on zinc toxicity was dependent on the source of DOM present in the water. In the presence of DOM high in humic-like components pH did not influence toxicity. In the presence of DOM high in fulvic-like components, pH had a significant effect on EC50 values. Labile zinc (measured by diffusive gradients in thin-films) followed linear relationships with dissolved zinc but could not explain the changes in observed toxicity, with similar DGT-labile zinc relationships shown for the two DOMs despite each DOM influencing toxicity differently. This indicates changes in toxicity may be unrelated to changes in zinc lability. The results suggest that increased toxicity of zinc in the presence of DOM may be due to direct uptake of Zn-DOM complexes. This study highlights the importance of considering DOM source and characteristics when incorporating DOM into water quality guidelines through bioavailability models.

The influence of hardness at varying pH on zinc toxicity and lability to a freshwater microalga, Chlorella sp.

Zinc is an essential element for aquatic organisms, however, activities such as mining and refining, as well as zinc's ubiquitous role in modern society can contribute to elevated environmental concentrations of zinc. Water hardness is widely accepted as an important toxicity modifying factor for metals in aquatic systems, though other factors such as pH are also important. This study investigated the influence of increasing water hardness, at three different pH values (6.7, 7.6 and 8.3), on the chronic toxicity of zinc to the growth rate of a microalgae, Chlorella sp. Zinc toxicity decreased with increasing hardness from 5 to 93 mg CaCO3 L-1 at all three pH values tested. The 72 h growth rate inhibition EC50 values ranged from 6.2 µg Zn L-1 (at 5 mg CaCO3 L-1, pH 8.3) to 184 µg Zn L-1 (at 92 mg CaCO3 L-1, pH 6.7). Increases in hardness from 93 to 402 mg CaCO3 L-1 generally resulted in no significant (p > 0.05) reduction in zinc toxicity. DGT-labile zinc measurements did not correspond with the observed changes in zinc toxicity as hardness was varied within a pH treatment. This suggests that cationic competition from increased hardness is decreasing zinc toxicity, rather than changes in metal lability. This study highlighted that current hardness algorithms used in water quality guidelines may not be sufficiently protective of sensitive species, such as Chlorella sp., in high hardness waters.

Modeling the Bioavailability of Nickel and Zinc to Ceriodaphnia dubia and Neocloeon triangulifer in Toxicity Tests with Natural Waters.

We studied biotic ligand model (BLM) predictions of the toxicity of nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) in natural waters from Illinois and Minnesota, USA, which had combinations of pH, hardness, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) more extreme than 99.7% of waters in a nationwide database. We conducted 7-day chronic tests with Ceriodaphnia dubia and 96-hour acute and 14-day chronic tests with Neocloeon triangulifer and estimated median lethal concentrations and 20% effect concentrations for both species. Toxicity of Ni and Zn to both species differed among test waters by factors from 8 (Zn tests with C. dubia) to 35 (Zn tests with N. triangulifer). For both species and metals, tests with Minnesota waters (low pH and hardness, high DOC) showed lower toxicity than Illinois waters (high pH and high hardness, low DOC). Recalibration of the Ni BLM to be more responsive to pH-related changes improved predictions of Ni toxicity, especially for C. dubia. For the Zn BLM, we compared several input data scenarios, which generally had minor effects on model performance scores (MPS). A scenario that included inputs of modeled dissolved inorganic carbon and measured Al and Fe(III) produced the highest MPS values for tests with both C. dubia and N. triangulifer. Overall, the BLM framework successfully modeled variation in toxicity for both Zn and Ni across wide ranges of water chemistry in tests with both standard and novel test organisms. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:3049-3062. © 2021 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

The Influence of pH on Zinc Lability and Toxicity to a Tropical Freshwater Microalga.

Increased focus on the development and application of bioavailability-based metal water quality guideline values requires increased understanding of the influence of water chemistry on metal bioavailability and toxicity. Development of empirical models, such as multiple linear regression models, requires the assessment of the influence of individual water quality parameters as toxicity-modifying factors. The present study investigated the effect of pH on the lability and toxicity of zinc (Zn) to a tropical green microalga (Chlorella sp.). Zinc speciation and lability were explored using the Windermere Humic Aqueous Model (WHAM7), ultrafiltration, and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT). Zinc toxicity increased significantly with increasing pH from 6.7 to 8.3, with 50% growth inhibition effect concentrations decreasing from 185 to 53 µg l-1 across the pH range. Linear relationships between DGT-labile Zn and dissolved Zn did not vary across the tested pH range, nor did the linear relationship between dissolved (<0.45 µm) and ultrafiltered (<3 kDa) Zn. Our findings show that Zn toxicity to this freshwater alga is altered as a function of pH across environmentally realistic pH ranges and that these toxicity changes could not be explained by Zn speciation and lability as measured by DGT and WHAM7. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2836-2845. © 2021 SETAC.

Application of U.S. EPA guidelines in a bioavailability-based assessment of ambient water quality criteria for zinc in freshwater.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) current ambient water quality criteria (AWQC) for zinc in freshwater are hardness-based and were last updated in 1995. The acute and chronic freshwater toxicity databases have since expanded substantially and the U.S. EPA's minimum phylogenetic diversity requirements for chronic zinc toxicity are now met (an acute:chronic ratio was previously required). Additionally, several acute and chronic biotic ligand models (BLMs) for zinc have since been developed and validated for freshwater organisms. Using the expanded toxicity database and existing BLMs, we developed a unified zinc BLM that could efficiently predict both acute and chronic toxicity over a wide range of zinc bioavailabilities. The unified BLM, developed by objectively averaging the biotic ligand binding constants for zinc (Zn(2+)) and competing cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), H(+)) from existing BLMs, performed better in predicting toxicity to a diverse set of organisms than any individual existing BLM. Performance of the unified BLM was further improved by optimizing the biotic ligand binding constant for the ZnOH(+) species. The updated freshwater zinc toxicity database and unified BLM were then used to estimate the fifth percentiles of the acute and chronic species sensitivity distributions following the U.S. EPA guidelines for AWQC development.

Protectiveness of water quality criteria for copper in western United States waters relative to predicted olfactory responses in juvenile Pacific salmon.

Copper (Cu) can impair olfaction in juvenile Pacific salmon (as well as other fishes), thus potentially inhibiting the ability of juveniles to avoid predators or to find food. Because Cu is commonly elevated in stormwater runoff in urban environments, storm events may result in elevated Cu concentrations in salmon-bearing streams. Accordingly, there is concern that existing Cu criteria, which were not derived using data for olfactory-related endpoints, may not be adequately protective of juvenile salmon. However, a modification of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) biotic ligand model (BLM) for deriving site-specific Cu criteria was recently proposed, which accounted for the sensitivity of olfactory endpoints. The modification was based on olfactory inhibition in juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) exposed to Cu in various combinations of pH, hardness, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. We used that olfactory-based BLM to derive 20% inhibition concentrations (IC20) values for Cu for 133 stream locations in the western United States. The olfactory BLM-based IC20 values were compared to the existing hardness-based Cu criteria and the USEPA's BLM-based Cu criteria for these representative natural waters of the western United States. Of the 133 sampling locations, mean hardness-dependent acute and chronic Cu criteria were below the mean olfactory-based BLM IC20 value in 122 (92%) and 129 (97%) of the waters, respectively (i.e., <20% olfactory impairment would have been predicted at the mean hardness-based Cu criteria concentrations). Waters characterized by a combination of high hardness and very low DOC were most likely to have hardness-based Cu criteria that were higher than the olfactory-based BLM IC20 values, because DOC strongly influences Cu bioavailability in the BLM. In all waters, the USEPA's current BLM-based criteria were below the mean olfactory-based BLM IC20 values, indicating that the USEPA's BLM-based criteria are protective of olfactory impairment in juvenile salmon.

Demonstration of a landscape-scale approach for predicting acute copper toxicity to larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in surface waters.

Watersheds have historically been used as the appropriate spatial classification unit for managing water resources. However, geology, soil type, predominant vegetation, and climate have obvious influences on water quality and are not constrained by watercourses or political boundaries. This concept has evolved for several decades and developed the concept of ecoregions and other spatial schemes. While this approach to water resource management has considered the interaction between water quality and biological integrity (aquatic community structure and assemblage), it has not been applied in the context of predicting aquatic toxicity. As such, a previously published study providing a chemical and toxicological data set consisting of 24 sampling sites in South Carolina, USA, and was used to develop empirical models for predicting acute copper (Cu) toxicity to larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas). Moreover, numerous spatial classifications (hydrologic units, ecoregions, stream order, adjacent land use, and proximity to certain land uses) and seasonality were used to delineate sites and develop empirical models based on these different classifications. An independent sampling and testing regime was implemented to determine the performance of the empirical models and whether certain classifications could be used to extrapolate toxicity data across spatial landscapes. Additionally, a computational model (biotic ligand model [BLM]) for deriving site-specific water quality criteria for Cu also was used as a reference for current regulatory application. Empirical models based on delineations of stream order, hydrologic unit, and downstream distance to urbanization accurately predicted at least 60% of the observed Cu toxicity values within the supplemental data set. Delineations based on adjacent land use, ecoregions, and seasons were not as useful for predicting acute Cu toxicity but demonstrated better performance than the BLM.

Influence of copper exposure on whole-body sodium levels in larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas).

Because metals such as Cu inhibit ionoregulation, the increased energy requirement to counter passive diffusive losses in soft water may translate into increased sensitivity to metal exposure. We developed a method to determine whole-body Na concentrations of larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) as a physiological indicator of health. This method was used to characterize net rates of Na flux from fish exposed to Cu in the presence of varying levels of hardness and alkalinity. In extremely soft waters (hardness, < or = 10 mg/L as CaCO(3)), larval fish experienced rates of net whole-body Na loss greater than what has been observed in juvenile and adult fish when exposed to Cu at concentrations near the median lethal concentration. Elevating hardness (>10 mg/L as CaCO(3)), however, decreased the apparent kinetics of Na loss caused by Cu exposure, which suggests the process was related to uncompetitive inhibition of Cu by hardness cations. Although the percentage of Na loss associated with mortality in larval fish was similar to that in juvenile and adult fish (30% loss of exchangeable Na pool), larvae reached this level within 12 h of exposure, and it was not representative of the onset of mortality. These results suggested that ionoregulatory measures by themselves are not a conclusive metric for Cu regulation using larval fish. To account for increased sensitivity in low-hardness waters in the development of biotic ligand models, the critical amount of Cu associated with the gill to cause mortality (i.e., the median lethal accumulation value) should be characterized more appropriately as a function of hardness below 20 mg/L as CaCO(3).

Evaluation of acute copper toxicity to larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in soft surface waters.

The hardness-based regulatory approach for Cu prescribes an extrapolation of the toxicity-versus-hardness relationship to low hardness (< or =50 mg/L as CaCO3). Hence, the objective of the present research was to evaluate the influences of water quality on acute Cu toxicity to larval fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) in low-hardness surface waters. Seasonal water sampling was conducted at 24 sites throughout South Carolina, USA, to determine the site-specific influences of soft surface-water conditions on acute Cu toxicity. Concurrent toxicity tests in laboratory water, matched for hardness and alkalinity (modified method), also were conducted to allow calculation of water-effect ratios (WERs). In addition, tests were conducted at recommended hardness levels (recommended method) for comparison of WER methodology in soft water. Surface-water conditions (average+/-standard deviation, n = 53) were hardness of 16+/-8 mg/L as CaCO3, alkalinity of 18+/-11 mg/L as CaCO3, and dissolved organic carbon of 6+/-4 mg/L. Dissolved Cu 48-h median lethal concentration (LC50) values varied nearly 45-fold across the dataset and greater than four-fold at individual sites. Spatial (p < 0.0001) and seasonal (p = 0.026) differences among LC50 values were determined for eight sites that had multiple toxicity results for one year. All modified WERs were greater than 1.0, suggesting that the site waters were more protective of Cu toxicity than the matched laboratory water. Some WERs generated using recommended methods were less than 1.0, suggesting limited site-specific protection. Based on these observations, extrapolation of the hardness-based equation for Cu at 50 mg/L or less as CaCO3 would adequately protect fathead minnow populations in soft surface waters. The WER results presented here demonstrate the inconsistency between hardness-based criteria and the methodology for deriving site-specific water-quality criteria in low-hardness waters.

Influence of natural organic matter source on copper toxicity to larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas): implications for the biotic ligand model.

The influence of dissolved natural organic matter (NOM) source on copper toxicity was investigated with larval fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in reconstituted moderately hard water. Ninety-six-hour static renewal toxicity tests were conducted to investigate an assumption of the biotic ligand model (BLM) that NOM source does not need to be considered to adequately predict copper toxicity. The nine different NOM isolates used in these toxicity tests were chemically well-characterized substances that were obtained by reverse osmosis as part of an NOM typing project based in southern Norway. Three median lethal concentration (LC50) values were estimated for toxicity tests conducted with each NOM, at nominal dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of 2, 5, and 10 mg/L. Tests also were conducted in dilution waters in which no NOM was added. Regression analyses were conducted to compare NOM-specific (specific NOM source) LC50s versus DOC concentration relationships to each other, as well as to the overall LC50 versus DOC concentration relationship. Statistical differences were found regarding the effects of NOM source on copper toxicity. Similar analyses were conducted with humic acid (HA) concentrations and spectral absorbance, and differences in the effect of NOM source on copper toxicity were similarly concluded. These results do not support the assumption that copper toxicity can be adequately predicted by utilizing DOC concentration, regardless of NOM source. Evaluation of relationships between LC50 values and other NOM characteristics revealed that despite significant differences due to NOM source on copper toxicity, DOC and HA concentrations were the most effective parameters in explaining variability in LC50 values. When BLM-predicted LC50 values were compared to observed LC50 values, predicted values showed reasonable agreement with observed values, but some deviations occurred due to NOM source and DOC concentration.

The effects of low hardness and pH on copper toxicity to Daphnia magna.

The majority of metal toxicity data available for freshwater organisms have been generated in laboratory water at pH > 6.5 and hardness > 50 mg/L as CaCO3. Extrapolation of these results to soft surface waters (i.e., hardness < or = 40 mg/L as CaCO3), similar to predominant conditions in the southeastern United States, may prove challenging. For example, South Carolina has surface waters that average 20 mg/L as CaCO3, and exist at extremes of 1 and 600 mg/L as CaCO3. This research characterized the acute toxicity of Cu to Daphnia magna in waters with low hardness and low pH. The 48-h total Cu median lethal concentrations were related to water hardness over a hardness range of 8 to 51 mg/L as CaCO3. Although toxicological differences existed between water hardness of 7 and 20 mg/L as CaCO3 (p = 0.0001), differences in pH (range 5.5-8.5) did not influence acute Cu toxicity. Results of these laboratory studies will provide the data needed to more accurately predict organism response to Cu in waters with low pH and low hardness.