The phosphorus cost of agricultural intensification in the tropics.

Agricultural intensification in the tropics is one way to meet rising global food demand in coming decades(1,2). Although this strategy can potentially spare land from conversion to agriculture(3), it relies on large material inputs. Here we quantify one such material cost, the phosphorus fertilizer required to intensify global crop production atop phosphorus-fixing soils and achieve yields similar to productive temperate agriculture. Phosphorus-fixing soils occur mainly in the tropics, and render added phosphorus less available to crops(4,5). We estimate that intensification of the 8-12% of global croplands overlying phosphorus-fixing soils in 2005 would require 1-4 Tg P yr(-1) to overcome phosphorus fixation, equivalent to 8-25% of global inorganic phosphorus fertilizer consumption that year. This imposed phosphorus 'tax' is in addition to phosphorus added to soils and subsequently harvested in crops, and doubles (2-7 Tg P yr(-1)) for scenarios of cropland extent in 2050(6). Our estimates are informed by local-, state- and national-scale investigations in Brazil, where, more than any other tropical country, low-yielding agriculture has been replaced by intensive production. In the 11 major Brazilian agricultural states, the surplus of added inorganic fertilizer phosphorus retained by soils post harvest is strongly correlated with the fraction of cropland overlying phosphorus-fixing soils (r(2) = 0.84, p < 0.001). Our interviews with 49 farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, which produces 8% of the world's soybeans mostly on phosphorus-fixing soils, suggest this phosphorus surplus is required even after three decades of high phosphorus inputs. Our findings in Brazil highlight the need for better understanding of long-term soil phosphorus fixation elsewhere in the tropics. Strategies beyond liming, which is currently widespread in Brazil, are needed to reduce phosphorus retention by phosphorus-fixing soils to better manage the Earth's finite phosphate rock supplies and move towards more sustainable agricultural production.

Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon.

As urbanization rates rise globally, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors associated with urban out-migration. In this paper, we examine the drivers of urban out-migration among young adults in two medium-sized cities in the Brazilian Amazon-Altamira and Santarém-focusing on the roles of social capital, human capital, and socioeconomic deprivation. Using household survey data from 1,293 individuals in the two cities, we employ an event history model to assess factors associated with migration and a binary logit model to understand factors associated with remitting behavior. We find that in Altamira, migration tends to be an individual-level opportunistic strategy fostered by extra-local family networks, while in Santarém, migration tends to be a household-level strategy driven by socioeconomic deprivation and accompanied by remittances. These results indicate that urban out-migration in Brazil is a diverse social process, and that the relative roles of extra-local networks versus economic need can function quite differently between geographically proximate but historically and socioeconomically distinct cities.

Poverty dynamics, ecological endowments, and land use among smallholders in the Brazilian Amazon.

Rural settlement in previously sparsely occupied areas of the Brazilian Amazon has been associated with high levels of forest loss and unclear long-term social outcomes. We focus here on the micro-level processes in one settlement area to answer the question of how settler and farm endowments affect household poverty. We analyze the extent to which poverty is sensitive to changes in natural capital, land use strategies, and biophysical characteristics of properties (particularly soil quality). Cumulative time spent in poverty is simulated using Markovian processes, which show that accessibility to markets and land use system are especially important for decreasing poverty among households in our sample. Wealtheir households are selected into commercial production of perennials before our initial observation, and are therefore in poverty a lower proportion of the time. Land in pasture, in contrast, has an independent effect on reducing the proportion of time spent in poverty. Taken together, these results show that investments in roads and the institutional structures needed to make commercial agriculture or ranching viable in existing and new settlement areas can improve human well-being in frontiers.

Eco-certification and greening the Brazilian soy and corn supply chains.

Garrett et al's recent letter (2013 Environ. Res. Lett.8 044055) shows the trade value of Brazil's production of non-genetically modified (GM) crops, and argues that production for this niche market laid the foundation for the expansion of a variety of non-GM and eco-certification systems. We argue that the conditions underlying the development and perpetuation of the non-GM certification systems are transient. The expansion of soy production has dampened the conditions that promoted the dominance of non-GM soy in the region. The state at the heart of the production of conventional soy, Mato Grosso, already has transitioned to almost 90% GM soy in the most recent agricultural season. The continued viability of eco-certification systems depends on strengthening institutions on the demand side, and ensuring farm-level costs on the supply side match price premiums reaching the farm level.

Socioeconomic development and agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso.

The Brazilian agro-industrial frontier in Mato Grosso rapidly expanded in total area of mechanized production and in total value of production in the last decade. This article shows the spatial pattern of that expansion from 2000 to 2010, based on novel analyses of satellite imagery. It then explores quantitatively and qualitatively the antecedents and correlates of intensification, the expansion of the area under two crops per year. Double cropping is most likely in areas with access to transportation networks, previous profitable agricultural production, and strong existing ties to national and international commodity markets. The article concludes with an exploration of the relationship between double cropping and socioeconomic development, showing that double cropping is strongly correlated with incomes of all residents of a community and with investments in education. We conclude that double cropping in Mato Grosso is very closely tied to multiple indicators of socioeconomic development.

Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project.

One of Daniel Hogan's lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation.

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions.

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process.

Collecting Sketch Maps to Understand Property Land Use and Land Cover in Large Surveys.

This article describes a method to collect data on the spatial organization of land use within a rural property as part of a large-scale project examining the linkages between household demographic change and land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous studies used several different spatial approaches, including maps and satellite images, to improve the information collected in standard survey questionnaires. However, few used sketch maps to obtain information from the point of view of the survey respondent about the spatial organization of land use and infrastructure. We developed a method of creating sketch maps with respondents to describe their properties. These maps then provided a spatially referenced database of the social and land use organization of the properties from the perspective of the respondent. Systematic rules allowed sketches to be used in subsequent spatial analyses in combination with satellite images and Global Positioning System reference points.

Confidentiality and spatially explicit data: concerns and challenges.

Recent theoretical, methodological, and technological advances in the spatial sciences create an opportunity for social scientists to address questions about the reciprocal relationship between context (spatial organization, environment, etc.) and individual behavior. This emerging research community has yet to adequately address the new threats to the confidentiality of respondent data in spatially explicit social survey or census data files, however. This paper presents four sometimes conflicting principles for the conduct of ethical and high-quality science using such data: protection of confidentiality, the social-spatial linkage, data sharing, and data preservation. The conflict among these four principles is particularly evident in the display of spatially explicit data through maps combined with the sharing of tabular data files. This paper reviews these two research activities and shows how current practices favor one of the principles over the others and do not satisfactorily resolve the conflict among them. Maps are indispensable for the display of results but also reveal information on the location of respondents and sampling clusters that can then be used in combination with shared data files to identify respondents. The current practice of sharing modified or incomplete data sets or using data enclaves is not ideal for either the advancement of science or the protection of confidentiality. Further basic research and open debate are needed to advance both understanding of and solutions to this dilemma.

Altruistic and contractual remittances between male and female migrants and households in rural Thailand.

Past research has questioned the extent to which remittances are altruistic behaviors versus payments in a contractual relationship between households and migrants. This article explores altruistic and contractual patterns of remittances using a gendered approach. On the basis of results with various levels of significance in regression models, male and female migrants from Nang Rong, Thailand, behave both altruistically and contractually. However, women and migrants from poorer households behave more altruistically, while men and migrants from richer households behave more contractually. These results point to the need for further research and theory development to explain heterogeneities in migrants' behavior.