How do distribution mapping methods perform in estimating beta diversity at macroecological scales? A case study with Neotropical anurans.

Species distribution mapping methods have their advantages and limitations concerning their use on theoretical and/or applied macroecological approaches. However, it remains underexplored how the estimates of community ecology metrics vary across the distributions generated by different mapping methods. Here, we mapped the distribution patterns of the anuran beta diversity in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado hotspots generated by three mapping methods: point-to-grid (PTG), extent-of-occurrence (EOO), and ecological niche modelling (ENM) maps, so we were able to compare the congruence of the local contribution to beta diversity index (LCBD) among them, as well as their turnover and nestedness components. PTGs generated the most divergent LCBD values probably due to the more resolved spatial scale in which species' presence are considered, so EEO and ENM generated similar beta diversity estimates for both hotspots. High LCBD values in the Cerrado were recorded in ecotone regions, whereas in the Atlantic Forest the highest beta diversity values were found along the Atlantic coast. The structure of beta diversity of PTG showed way too high values of importance for the turnover component compared to the EEO and ENM maps, which also recorded higher importance for the turnover than for the nestedness component.

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots.

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

Biogeographic distribution patterns and their correlates in the diverse frog fauna of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Anurans are a highly diverse group in the Atlantic Forest hotspot (AF), yet distribution patterns and species richness gradients are not randomly distributed throughout the biome. Thus, we explore how anuran species are distributed in this complex and biodiverse hotspot, and hypothesize that this group can be distinguished by different cohesive regions. We used range maps of 497 species to obtain a presence/absence data grid, resolved to 50×50 km grain size, which was submitted to k-means clustering with v-fold cross-validation to determine the biogeographic regions. We also explored the extent to which current environmental variables, topography, and floristic structure of the AF are expected to identify the cluster patterns recognized by the k-means clustering. The biogeographic patterns found for amphibians are broadly congruent with ecoregions identified in the AF, but their edges, and sometimes the whole extent of some clusters, present much less resolved pattern compared to previous classification. We also identified that climate, topography, and vegetation structure of the AF explained a high percentage of variance of the cluster patterns identified, but the magnitude of the regression coefficients shifted regarding their importance in explaining the variance for each cluster. Specifically, we propose that the anuran fauna of the AF can be split into four biogeographic regions: a) less diverse and widely-ranged species that predominantly occur in the inland semideciduous forests; b) northern small-ranged species that presumably evolved within the Pleistocene forest refugia; c) highly diverse and small-ranged species from the southeastern Brazilian mountain chain and its adjacent semideciduous forest; and d) southern species from the Araucaria forest. Finally, the high congruence among the cluster patterns and previous eco-regions identified for the AF suggests that preserving the underlying habitat structure helps to preserve the historical and ecological signals that underlie the geographic distribution of AF anurans.

Nursing workload as a risk factor for healthcare associated infections in ICU: a prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Nurse understaffing is frequently hypothesized as a potential risk factor for healthcare-associated infections (HAI). This study aimed to evaluate the role of nursing workload in the occurrence of HAI, using Nursing Activities Score (NAS). METHODS: This prospective cohort study enrolled all patients admitted to 3 Medical ICUs and one step-down unit during 3 months (2009). Patients were followed-up until HAI, discharge or death. Information was obtained from direct daily observation of medical and nursing rounds, chart review and monitoring of laboratory system. Nursing workload was determined using NAS. Non-compliance to the nurses' patient care plans (NPC) was identified. Demographic data, clinical severity, invasive procedures, hospital interventions, and the occurrence of other adverse events were also recorded. Patients who developed HAI were compared with those who did not. RESULTS: 195 patients were included and 43 (22%) developed HAI: 16 pneumonia, 12 urinary-tract, 8 bloodstream, 2 surgical site, 2 other respiratory infections and 3 other. Average NAS and average proportion of non compliance with NPC were significantly higher in HAI patients. They were also more likely to suffer other adverse events. Only excessive nursing workload (OR: 11.41; p: 0.019) and severity of patient's clinical condition (OR: 1.13; p: 0.015) remained as risk factors to HAI. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive nursing workload was the main risk factor for HAI, when evaluated together with other invasive devices except mechanical ventilation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate prospectively the nursing workload as a potential risk factor for HAI, using NAS.

Diversidade, distribuição espacial e temporal de anfíbios anuros (Amphibia, Anura) na região noroeste do estado de São Paulo, Brasil

A riqueza e a abundância de adultos e girinos de anuros foram estudadas ao longo de 15 meses em dez corpos de água no noroeste do estado de São Paulo, região intensamente antropizada pela conversão de hábitats naturais em terras agrícolas. Foram registradas 27 espécies de anfíbios anuros, das quais quatro espécies constituem novos registros para a região. A maioria das espécies é característica de ambientes de formação vegetal aberta, sendo as maiores riqueza e diversidade de espécies encontradas em corpos de água lênticos em área aberta. Entretanto, em conseqüência do pequeno número de corpos de água encontrados nos fragmentos de mata da região, não é possível comparar a ocorrência de anuros em áreas abertas e fechadas. Foram determinados seis descritores da heterogeneidade dos corpos d'água, e nenhum deles foi relacionado com a riqueza de espécies. Por outro lado, tanto a riqueza quanto a abundância das espécies foram fortemente correlacionadas com as variáveis climáticas. A composição de espécies (diversidade b) variou pouco entre os corpos d'água, como provável conseqüência da grande amplitude de nicho, comum em espécies que ocupam ambientes instáveis ou alterados pelo homem, como os presentemente estudados. A riqueza de espécies da área amostrada é relativamente alta, quando comparada a outras localidades onde o grau de conservação ambiental é superior, como na Estação Ecológica de Aguas Emendadas (Distrito Federal) e Floresta Nacional de Silvânia (Goiás).