Comparison of Various Scoring Systems and Biochemical Markers in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: Early risk assessment is important in acute pancreatitis (AP). The primary objective of this study was to compare various scores and biochemical markers done on the day of admission in predicting the outcome. METHODS: Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of patients presenting within 2 weeks of onset were collected. Various scores were calculated and biochemical markers were measured on the day of admission. Optimum cutoffs were identified through receiver operating curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify predictors of outcome. RESULTS: Of 343 patients included, 202 (59%) were male; mean (SD) age was 38.7 (15.5) years. Acute pancreatitis was severe in 170 (49.6%) patients. Twenty-eight percent of the patients developed infected pancreatic necrosis and 18% died. An Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score of at least 7, bedside index for severity of AP (BISAP) of at least 2, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score of at least 3, and C-reactive protein of at least 82 ng/mL predicted severity. Predictors of infected pancreatic necrosis were as follows: PANC 3 score of at least 1, BISAP score of at least 2, and Marshall score of at least 2, whereas C-reactive protein of greater than 98, BISAP score of at least 2, APACHE score of at least 10, and a blood urea nitrogen of at least 17 predicted mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Both BISAP and APACHE II are comparable in predicting outcome, but BISAP predicted all 3 outcomes with the same cutoff and hence is a robust scoring system.

Predictors of infection in viral-hepatitis related acute liver failure.

OBJECTIVE: Infections are common and associated with complications and mortality in acute liver failure (ALF). The temporal relationship between ammonia and infection in ALF patients is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the predictors of infection and its relationship with arterial ammonia levels. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive ALF patients hospitalized between January 2004 and December 2015, without signs of infection at/within 48 h of admission, were included. Occurrence of infection after 48 h was documented and ammonia levels were estimated for five consecutive days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with development of infection. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to evaluate five-day time trend of ammonia in patients with and without infection. RESULTS: Of 540 consecutive patients, 120 were infected at admission/within 48 h and were excluded. Of the rest 420 patients, 144 (34.3%) developed infection after 48 h and 276 (65.7%) remained non-infected. Infected patients had higher mortality than non-infected patients (61.8% vs 40.0%, p < .001). On multivariate analysis, presence of cerebral edema(HR 2.049; 95%CI, 1.30-3.23), ammonia level on day 3 of admission (HR 1.006; 95%CI, 1.003-1.008), and model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score (HR 1.051; 95%CI, 1.026-1.078) were associated with development of infection. GEE showed group difference in serial ammonia values between infected and non-infected patients indicating lack of ammonia decline in infected patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cerebral edema, elevated ammonia on day 3, and higher MELD score predict the development of infection in ALF. Ammonia persists at high levels in infected patients, and elevated ammonia on day 3 is associated with complications and death.

Demographic profile, host, disease & viral predictive factors of response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection at a tertiary care hospital in north India.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Standard of care for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in India is peginterferon and ribavirin (RBV). The response to treatment in real life stetting is unclear. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the demographic profile and assess the virological response and predictors of response in CHC patients. METHODS: Consecutive patients with CHC were included in this study. Detailed clinical history, risk factors, and predictive factors of response were noted. Patients were treated with peginterferon α2b (1.5 µg/kg/wk) and RBV (12 mg/kg/day) for 6 to 18 months based on response. RESULTS: A total of 211 patients were included in the analysis, mean age 40.6±12.3 yr, 144 (68%) were males and 71 (34%) had compensated cirrhosis. Commonest risk factor for acquiring CHC was previous transfusion and surgery (51%). Genotype 3 (72%) was most common followed by genotype 1 (23%). Overall sustained virologic response (SVR) was 64 per cent [95% CI 57.1%-70.4%]. The SVR was 66.5 per cent [95% CI 58.34-73.89%] for genotype 3 and 61.2 per cent [95% CI 46.23 to 74.80%] for genotype 1. Non-cirrhotics had better SVR rates compared to cirrhotics (76 vs 41%, p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, BMI ≥23 kg/m2, HOMA-IR ≥2, compliance (≤80%), and fibrosis >2 were predictors of low SVR. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: Genotype 3 was the commonest HCV genotype. The commonest source of infection was previous transfusion and surgery. SVR rates for genotypes 3 were better than genotype 1 patients. Predictors of non-response were high BMI, insulin resistance, significant fibrosis and inadequate compliance.