Predictive genetic panel for adult asthma using machine learning methods.

Background: Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of the airways that is heterogeneous and multifactorial, making its accurate characterization a complex process. Therefore, identifying the genetic variations associated with asthma and discovering the molecular interactions between the omics that confer risk of developing this disease will help us to unravel the biological pathways involved in its pathogenesis. Objective: We sought to develop a predictive genetic panel for asthma using machine learning methods. Methods: We tested 3 variable selection methods: Boruta's algorithm, the top 200 genome-wide association study markers according to their respective P values, and an elastic net regression. Ten different algorithms were chosen for the classification tests. A predictive panel was built on the basis of joint scores between the classification algorithms. Results: Two variable selection methods, Boruta and genome-wide association studies, were statistically similar in terms of the average accuracies generated, whereas elastic net had the worst overall performance. The predictive genetic panel was completed with 155 single-nucleotide variants, with 91.18% accuracy, 92.75% sensitivity, and 89.55% specificity using the support vector machine algorithm. The markers used range from known single-nucleotide variants to those not previously described in the literature. Our study shows potential in creating genetic prediction panels with tailored penalties per marker, aiding in the identification of optimal machine learning methods for intricate results. Conclusions: This method is able to classify asthma and nonasthma effectively, proving its potential utility in clinical prediction and diagnosis.

Comparison of Sociodemographic and Radiographic Features in Distal Radio Fracture Treatment: Hand Surgeons versus Non-specialists.

Objective: This study evaluated sociodemographic and radiographic features of patients with distal radial fractures treated at a trauma hospital in southern Brazil, comparing those treated by hand surgery specialists (group 1) and non-specialists (group 2). Methods: This study consists of a retrospective cohort of 200 patients treated in 2020. After reviewing medical records and radiographs, the following parameters were analyzed: age, gender, trauma mechanism, laterality, associated comorbidities and fractures, fracture classification (AO), radial height, radial inclination, and volar inclination. Comparison of the two groups used the Student t-test, chi-square test, or Fisher exact test. Results: Most subjects were women (54%), sustained low-energy traumas (58%), and were left-handed (53%). Group 1 had a lower mean age (50.2 years); most of their subjects sustained high-energy trauma (54%) and had type C fractures (73%); type A fractures prevailed in group 2 (72%). Radiographs showed a significant difference regarding the mean radial inclination (21.5° in group 1 and 16.5° in group 2 [ p < 0.001] in women, and 21.3° in group 1 and 17° in group 2 [ p < 0.001] in men) and volar inclination (10.1° and 12.8° in groups 1 and 2, respectively [ p < 0.001]). In addition, the absolute number of cases with reestablished anatomical parameters per the three evaluated variables was also significantly different; all parameters were better in group 1. Conclusion: Hand surgeons treated the most severe fractures and had the best radiographic outcomes.

Comparison of Sociodemographic and Radiographic Features in Distal Radio Fracture Treatment: Hand Surgeons versus Non-specialists / Comparação de características sociodemográficas e radiográficas no tratamento de fratura de rádio distal: Cirurgiões de mão versus não especialistas

Abstract Objective: This study evaluated sociodemographic and radiographic features of patients with distal radial fractures treated at a trauma hospital in southern Brazil, comparing those treated by hand surgery specialists (group 1) and non-specialists (group 2). Methods: This study consists of a retrospective cohort of 200 patients treated in 2020. After reviewing medical records and radiographs, the following parameters were analyzed: age, gender, trauma mechanism, laterality, associated comorbidities and fractures, fracture classification (AO), radial height, radial inclination, and volar inclination. Comparison of the two groups used the Student t-test, chi-square test, or Fisher exact test. Results: Most subjects were women (54%), sustained low-energy traumas (58%), and were left-handed (53%). Group 1 had a lower mean age (50.2 years); most of their subjects sustained high-energy trauma (54%) and had type C fractures (73%); type A fractures prevailed in group 2 (72%). Radiographs showed a significant difference regarding the mean radial inclination (21.5° in group 1 and 16.5° in group 2 [p < 0.001] in women, and 21.3° in group 1 and 17° in group 2 [p < 0.001] in men) and volar inclination (10.1° and 12.8° in groups 1 and 2, respectively [p < 0.001]). In addition, the absolute number of cases with reestablished anatomical parameters per the three evaluated variables was also significantly different; all parameters were better in group 1. Conclusion: Hand surgeons treated the most severe fractures and had the best radiographic outcomes.

Resumo Objetivo: Avaliar as características sociodemográficas e radiográficas dos pacientes com fratura de rádio distal tratados em um hospital de trauma no sul do Brasil, comparando os casos tratados pelos especialistas em cirurgia da mão (grupo 1) com aqueles tratados por não especialistas (grupo 2). Métodos: Coorte retrospectiva realizada com 200 pacientes, no ano de 2020. Por meio da revisão de prontuários e radiografias, analisaram-se: idade, sexo, mecanismo de trauma, lateralidade, presença de comorbidades e fraturas associadas, classificação da fratura (AO), altura radial, inclinação radial e, inclinação volar. Comparou-se os dois grupos por meio do teste t de Student, qui-quadrado ou exato de Fisher. Resultados: A maioria era de pacientes do sexo feminino (54%), traumas de baixa energia (58%) e lateralidade esquerda (53%). O grupo 1 apresentou média de idade menor (50,2 anos), traumas de alta energia (54%), e fraturas tipo C (73%), enquanto no grupo 2 fraturas tipo A prevaleceram (72%). As radiografias apresentaram diferença significativa quanto à média de valores de inclinação radial (21,5° no grupo 1 e 16,5° no grupo 2 [p < 0,001] nas mulheres e, 21,3° no grupo 1 e 17° no grupo 2 [p < 0,001] nos homens) e inclinação volar (10,1° e 12,8° no grupo 1 e 2, respectivamente [p < 0,001]), bem como no número absoluto de casos que reestabeleceram os parâmetros anatômicos nas três variáveis avaliadas, sendo todos melhores no grupo 1. Conclusão: Os cirurgiões de mão trataram as fraturas mais graves e apresentaram os melhores resultados radiográficos.

Complex network analysis of arboviruses in the same geographic domain: Differences and similarities.

Arbovirus can cause diseases with a broad spectrum from mild to severe and long-lasting symptoms, affecting humans worldwide and therefore considered a public health problem with global and diverse socio-economic impacts. Understanding how they spread within and across different regions is necessary to devise strategies to control and prevent new outbreaks. Complex network approaches have widespread use to get important insights on several phenomena, as the spread of these viruses within a given region. This work uses the motif-synchronization methodology to build time varying complex networks based on data of registered infections caused by Zika, chikungunya, and dengue virus from 2014 to 2020, in 417 cities of the state of Bahia, Brazil. The resulting network sets capture new information on the spread of the diseases that are related to the time delay in the synchronization of the time series among different municipalities. Thus the work adds new and important network-based insights to previous results based on dengue dataset in the period 2001-2016. The most frequent synchronization delay time between time series in different cities, which control the insertion of edges in the networks, ranges 7 to 14 days, a period that is compatible with the time of the individual-mosquito-individual transmission cycle of these diseases. As the used data covers the initial periods of the first Zika and chikungunya outbreaks, our analyses reveal an increasing monotonic dependence between distance among cities and the time delay for synchronization between the corresponding time series. The same behavior was not observed for dengue, first reported in the region back in 1986, either in the previously 2001-2016 based results or in the current work. These results show that, as the number of outbreaks accumulates, different strategies must be adopted to combat the dissemination of arbovirus infections.

A cross entropy test allows quantitative statistical comparison of t-SNE and UMAP representations.

The advent of high-dimensional single-cell data has necessitated the development of dimensionality-reduction tools. t-Distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) and uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) are the two most frequently used approaches, allowing clear visualization of complex single-cell datasets. Despite the need for quantitative comparison, t-SNE and UMAP have largely remained visualization tools due to the lack of robust statistical approaches. Here, we have derived a statistical test for evaluating the difference between dimensionality-reduced datasets using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the distributions of cross entropy of single cells within each dataset. As the approach uses the inter-relationship of single cells for comparison, the resulting statistic is robust and capable of identifying true biological variation. Further, the test provides a valid distance between single-cell datasets, allowing the organization of multiple samples into a dendrogram for quantitative comparison of complex datasets. These results demonstrate the largely untapped potential of dimensionality-reduction tools for biomedical data analysis beyond visualization.

Causes of death in children with congenital Zika syndrome in Brazil, 2015 to 2018: A nationwide record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) have severe damage to the peripheral and central nervous system (CNS), greatly increasing the risk of death. However, there is no information on the sequence of the underlying, intermediate, immediate, and contributing causes of deaths among these children. The aims of this study are describe the sequence of events leading to death of children with CZS up to 36 months of age and their probability of dying from a given cause, 2015 to 2018. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a population-based study, we linked administrative data on live births, deaths, and cases of children with CZS from the SINASC (Live Birth Information System), the SIM (Mortality Information System), and the RESP (Public Health Event Records), respectively. Confirmed and probable cases of CZS were those that met the criteria established by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The information on causes of death was collected from death certificates (DCs) using the World Health Organization (WHO) DC template. We estimated proportional mortality (PM%) among children with CZS and among children with non-Zika CNS congenital anomalies (CA) by 36 months of age and proportional mortality ratio by cause (PMRc). A total of 403 children with confirmed and probable CZS who died up to 36 months of age were included in the study; 81.9% were younger than 12 months of age. Multiple congenital malformations not classified elsewhere, and septicemia unspecified, with 18 (PM = 4.5%) and 17 (PM = 4.2%) deaths, respectively, were the most attested underlying causes of death. Unspecified septicemia (29 deaths and PM = 11.2%) and newborn respiratory failure (40 deaths and PM = 12.1%) were, respectively, the predominant intermediate and immediate causes of death. Fetuses and newborns affected by the mother's infectious and parasitic diseases, unspecified cerebral palsy, and unspecified severe protein-caloric malnutrition were the underlying causes with the greatest probability of death in children with CZS (PMRc from 10.0 to 17.0) when compared to the group born with non-Zika CNS anomalies. Among the intermediate and immediate causes of death, pneumonitis due to food or vomiting and unspecified seizures (PMRc = 9.5, each) and unspecified bronchopneumonia (PMRc = 5.0) were notable. As contributing causes, fetus and newborn affected by the mother's infectious and parasitic diseases (PMRc = 7.3), unspecified cerebral palsy, and newborn seizures (PMRc = 4.5, each) were more likely to lead to death in children with CZS than in the comparison group. The main limitations of this study were the use of a secondary database without additional clinical information and potential misclassification of cases and controls. CONCLUSION: The sequence of causes and circumstances involved in the deaths of the children with CZS highlights the greater vulnerability of these children to infectious and respiratory conditions compared to children with abnormalities of the CNS not related to Zika.

Ethnoracial inequalities and child mortality in Brazil: a nationwide longitudinal study of 19 million newborn babies.

BACKGROUND: Racism is a social determinant of health inequities. In Brazil, racial injustices lead to poor outcomes in maternal and child health for Black and Indigenous populations, including greater risks of pregnancy-related complications; decreased access to antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care; and higher childhood mortality rates. In this study, we aimed to estimate inequalities in childhood mortality rates by maternal race and skin colour in a cohort of more than 19 million newborns in Brazil. METHODS: We did a nationwide population-based, retrospective cohort study using linked data on all births and deaths in Brazil between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2018. The data consisted of livebirths followed up to age 5 years, death, or Dec 31, 2018. Data for livebirths were extracted from the National Information System for livebirths, SINASC, and for deaths from the Mortality Information System, SIM. The final sample consisted of complete data for all cases regarding maternal race and skin colour, and no inconsistencies were present between date of birth and death after linkage. We fitted Cox proportional hazard regression models to calculate the crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association between maternal race and skin colour and all-cause and cause-specific younger than age 5 mortality rates, by age subgroups. We calculated the trend of HRs (and 95% CI) by time of observation (calendar year) to indicate trends in inequalities. FINDINGS: From the 20 526 714 livebirths registered in SINASC between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2018, 238 436 were linked to death records identified from SIM. After linkage, 1 010 871 records were excluded due to missing data on maternal race or skin colour or inconsistent date of death. 19 515 843 livebirths were classified by mother's race, of which 224 213 died. Compared with children of White mothers, mortality risk for children younger than age 5 years was higher among children of Indigenous (HR 1·98 [95% CI 1·92-2·06]), Black (HR 1·39 [1·36-1·41]), and Brown or Mixed race (HR 1·19 [1·18-1·20]) mothers. The highest hazard ratios were observed during the post-neonatal period (Indigenous, HR 2·78 [95% CI 2·64-2·95], Black, HR 1·54 [1·48-1·59]), and Brown or Mixed race, HR 1·25 [1·23-1·27]) and between the ages of 1 year and 4 years (Indigenous, HR 3·82 [95% CI 3·52-4·15]), Black, HR 1·51 [1·42-1·60], and Brown or Mixed race, HR 1·30 [1·26-1·35]). Children of Indigenous (HR 16·39 [95% CI 12·88-20·85]), Black (HR 2·34 [1·78-3·06]), and Brown or Mixed race mothers (HR 2·05 [1·71-2·45]) had a higher risk of death from malnutrition than did children of White mothers. Similar patterns were observed for death from diarrhoea (Indigenous, HR 14·28 [95% CI 12·25-16·65]; Black, HR 1·72 [1·44-2·05]; and Brown or Mixed race mothers, HR 1·78 [1·61-1·98]) and influenza and pneumonia (Indigenous, HR 6·49 [95% CI 5·78-7·27]; Black, HR 1·78 [1·62-1·96]; and Brown or Mixed race mothers, HR 1·60 [1·51-1·69]). INTERPRETATION: Substantial ethnoracial inequalities were observed in child mortality in Brazil, especially among the Indigenous and Black populations. These findings demonstrate the importance of regular racial inequality assessments and monitoring. We suggest implementing policies to promote ethnoracial equity to reduce the impact of racism on child health. FUNDING: MCTI/CNPq/MS/SCTIE/Decit/Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's Grandes Desafios Brasil, Desenvolvimento Saudável para Todas as Crianças, and Wellcome Trust core support grant awarded to CIDACS-Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health.

Context-dependent effects of IL-2 rewire immunity into distinct cellular circuits.

Interleukin 2 (IL-2) is a key homeostatic cytokine, with therapeutic applications in both immunogenic and tolerogenic immune modulation. Clinical use has been hampered by pleiotropic functionality and widespread receptor expression, with unexpected adverse events. Here, we developed a novel mouse strain to divert IL-2 production, allowing identification of contextual outcomes. Network analysis identified priority access for Tregs and a competitive fitness cost of IL-2 production among both Tregs and conventional CD4 T cells. CD8 T and NK cells, by contrast, exhibited a preference for autocrine IL-2 production. IL-2 sourced from dendritic cells amplified Tregs, whereas IL-2 produced by B cells induced two context-dependent circuits: dramatic expansion of CD8+ Tregs and ILC2 cells, the latter driving a downstream, IL-5-mediated, eosinophilic circuit. The source-specific effects demonstrate the contextual influence of IL-2 function and potentially explain adverse effects observed during clinical trials. Targeted IL-2 production therefore has the potential to amplify or quench particular circuits in the IL-2 network, based on clinical desirability.

Population-based surveillance for congenital zika virus syndrome: a latent class analysis of recorded cases from 2015-2018.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe clinical findings and determine the medium-term survival of congenital zika syndrome (CZS) suspected cases. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using routine register-based linked data. It included all suspected cases of CZS born in Brazil from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018, and followed up from birth until death, 36 months, or December 31, 2018, whichever came first. Latent class analysis was used to cluster unconfirmed cases into classes with similar combinations of anthropometry at birth, imaging findings, maternally reported rash, region, and year of birth. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted, and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to determine mortality up to 36 months. RESULTS: We followed 11,850 suspected cases of CZS, of which 28.3% were confirmed, 9.3% inconclusive and 62.4% unconfirmed. Confirmed cases had almost two times higher mortality when compared with unconfirmed cases. Among unconfirmed cases, we identified three distinct clusters with different mortality trajectories. The highest mortality risk was observed in those with abnormal imaging findings compatible with congenital infections (HR = 12.6; IC95%8.8-18.0) and other abnormalities (HR = 11.6; IC95%8.6-15.6) compared with those with normal imaging findings. The risk was high in those with severe microcephaly (HR = 8.2; IC95%6.4-10.6) and macrocephaly (HR = 6.6; IC95%4.5-9.7) compared with normal head size. CONCLUSION: Abnormal imaging and head circumference appear to be the main drivers of the increased mortality among suspected cases of CZS. We suggest identifying children who are more likely to die and have a greater need to optimise interventions and resource allocation regardless of the final diagnoses.

Mortality from Congenital Zika Syndrome - Nationwide Cohort Study in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to Zika virus has potential teratogenic effects, with a wide spectrum of clinical presentation referred to as congenital Zika syndrome. Data on survival among children with congenital Zika syndrome are limited. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked, routinely collected data in Brazil, from January 2015 through December 2018, to estimate mortality among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome as compared with those without the syndrome. Kaplan-Meier curves and survival models were assessed with adjustment for confounding and with stratification according to gestational age, birth weight, and status of being small for gestational age. RESULTS: A total of 11,481,215 live-born children were followed to 36 months of age. The mortality rate was 52.6 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.6 to 58.0) per 1000 person-years among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with 5.6 deaths (95% CI, 5.6 to 5.7) per 1000 person-years among those without the syndrome. The mortality rate ratio among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with those without the syndrome, was 11.3 (95% CI, 10.2 to 12.4). Among infants born before 32 weeks of gestation or with a birth weight of less than 1500 g, the risks of death were similar regardless of congenital Zika syndrome status. Among infants born at term, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 14.3 times (95% CI, 12.4 to 16.4) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 38.4 vs. 2.7 deaths per 1000 person-years). Among infants with a birth weight of 2500 g or greater, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 12.9 times (95% CI, 10.9 to 15.3) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 32.6 vs. 2.5 deaths per 1000 person-years). The burden of congenital anomalies, diseases of the nervous system, and infectious diseases as recorded causes of deaths was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome and persisted throughout the first 3 years of life. (Funded by the Ministry of Health of Brazil and others.).

HIV-1 molecular diversity in Brazil unveiled by 10 years of sampling by the national genotyping network.

HIV-1 has diversified into several subtypes and recombinant forms that are heterogeneously spread around the world. Understanding the distribution of viral variants and their temporal dynamics can help to design vaccines and monitor changes in viral transmission patterns. Brazil has one of the largest HIV-1 epidemics in the western-world and the molecular features of the virus circulating in the country are still not completely known. Over 50,000 partial HIV-1 genomes sampled between 2008 and 2017 by the Brazilian genotyping network (RENAGENO) were analyzed. Sequences were filtered by quality, duplicate sequences per patient were removed and subtyping was performed with online tools and molecular phylogeny. Association between patients' demographic data and subtypes were performed by calculating the relative risk in a multinomial analysis and trends in subtype prevalence were tested by Pearson correlation. HIV-1B was found to be the most prevalent subtype throughout the country except in the south, where HIV-1C prevails. An increasing trend in the proportion of HIV-1C and F1 was observed in several regions of the country, while HIV-1B tended to decrease. Men and highly educated individuals were more frequently infected by HIV-1B and non-B variants were more prevalent among women with lower education. Our results suggest that socio-demographic factors partially segregate HIV-1 diversity in Brazil while shaping viral transmission networks. Historical events could explain a preferential circulation of HIV-1B among men who have sex with men (MSM) and non-B variants among heterosexual individuals. In view of an increasing male/female ratio of AIDS cases in Brazil in the last 10-15 years, the decrease of HIV-1B prevalence is surprising and suggests a greater penetrance of non-B subtypes in MSM transmission chains.

Classification algorithm for congenital Zika Syndrome: characterizations, diagnosis and validation.

Zika virus was responsible for the microcephaly epidemic in Brazil which began in October 2015 and brought great challenges to the scientific community and health professionals in terms of diagnosis and classification. Due to the difficulties in correctly identifying Zika cases, it is necessary to develop an automatic procedure to classify the probability of a CZS case from the clinical data. This work presents a machine learning algorithm capable of achieving this from structured and unstructured available data. The proposed algorithm reached 83% accuracy with textual information in medical records and image reports and 76% accuracy in classifying data without textual information. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has the potential to classify CZS cases in order to clarify the real effects of this epidemic, as well as to contribute to health surveillance in monitoring possible future epidemics.

WSB1 and IL21R Genetic Variants Are Involved in Th2 Immune Responses to Ascaris lumbricoides.

Genetic and epigenetic factors are considered to be critical for host-parasite interactions. There are limited data on the role of such factors during human infections with Ascaris lumbricoides. Here, we describe the potential role of genetic factors as determinants of the Th2 immune response to A. lumbricoides in Brazilian children. Stool samples were collected from the children to detect A. lumbricoides by microscopy and peripheral blood leukocytes (PBLs) were cultured in whole blood cultures for detection of cytokines (IL-5, IL-10, and IL-13) in vitro. Levels of anti-A. lumbricoides IgE and IgG4 were measured in plasma. DNA was extracted from PBLs and genotyped using Illumina 2.5 Human Omni Beadchip. Candidate genes associated with A. lumbricoides responses were identified and SNVs in these selected genes associated with the Th2 immune response to A. lumbricoides. Haplotype, gene expression, and epigenetic analyses were done to identify potential associations with Th2 immune responses. GWAS on samples from 1,189 children identified WSB1 as a candidate gene, and IL-21R was selected as a biologically relevant linked gene for further analysis. Variants in WSB1 and IL21R were associated with markers of Th2 immune responses: increased A. lumbricoides-specific IgE and IL-5/IL-13 by PBLs from infected compared to uninfected individuals. In infected children, WSB1 but not IL21R gene expression was suppressed and increased methylation was observed in the WSB1 promoter region. This is the first study to show an association between genetic variants in WSB1 and IL21R and Th2 immune responses during A. lumbricoides infections in children. WSB1/IL21R pathways could provide a potential target for the treatment of Th2-mediated diseases.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil.

COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.

New Insights on the Zika Virus Arrival in the Americas and Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of the Epidemic Dynamics in Brazil.

Zika virus (ZIKV) became a worldwide public health emergency after its introduction in the Americas. Brazil was implicated as central in the ZIKV dispersion, however, a better understanding of the pathways the virus took to arrive in Brazil and the dispersion within the country is needed. An updated genome dataset was assembled with publicly available data. Bayesian phylogeography methods were applied to reconstruct the spatiotemporal history of ZIKV in the Americas and with more detail inside Brazil. Our analyses reconstructed the Brazilian state of Pernambuco as the likely point of introduction of ZIKV in Brazil, possibly during the 2013 Confederations Cup. Pernambuco played an important role in spreading the virus to other Brazilian states. Our results also underscore the long cryptic circulation of ZIKV in all analyzed locations in Brazil. Conclusions: This study brings new insights about the early moments of ZIKV in the Americas, especially regarding the Brazil-Haiti cluster at the base of the American clade and describing for the first time migration patterns within Brazil.

Case Fatality Rate Related to Microcephaly Congenital Zika Syndrome and Associated Factors: A Nationwide Retrospective Study in Brazil †.

BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes.

Integrating Computational Methods to Investigate the Macroecology of Microbiomes.

Studies in microbiology have long been mostly restricted to small spatial scales. However, recent technological advances, such as new sequencing methodologies, have ushered an era of large-scale sequencing of environmental DNA data from multiple biomes worldwide. These global datasets can now be used to explore long standing questions of microbial ecology. New methodological approaches and concepts are being developed to study such large-scale patterns in microbial communities, resulting in new perspectives that represent a significant advances for both microbiology and macroecology. Here, we identify and review important conceptual, computational, and methodological challenges and opportunities in microbial macroecology. Specifically, we discuss the challenges of handling and analyzing large amounts of microbiome data to understand taxa distribution and co-occurrence patterns. We also discuss approaches for modeling microbial communities based on environmental data, including information on biological interactions to make full use of available Big Data. Finally, we summarize the methods presented in a general approach aimed to aid microbiologists in addressing fundamental questions in microbial macroecology, including classical propositions (such as "everything is everywhere, but the environment selects") as well as applied ecological problems, such as those posed by human induced global environmental changes.

The use of drugs and medical students: a literature review.

INTRODUCTION: The consumption and abuse of alcohol and other drugs are increasingly present in the lives of university students and may already be considered a public health problem because of the direct impacts on the physical and mental health of these individuals. The requirements of the medical program play a vital role in the increasing rate of drug users. OBJECTIVES: To carry out a systematic review of the literature on the use of drugs, licit or not, in Brazilian medical students. METHODS: A descriptive-exploratory study, in which the SciELO and MEDLINE databases were used. A total of 99 articles were found, of which 16 were selected for this review. RESULTS: Alcohol and tobacco were the most frequently used licit drugs among medical students. The most consumed illicit drugs were marijuana, solvents, "lança-perfume" (ether spray), and anxiolytics. The male genre presented a tendency of consuming more significant amounts of all kinds of drugs, with the exception of tranquilizers. It was found an increasing prevalence of drug consumption in medical students, as the program progressed, which may result from the intrinsic stress from medical school activities. Students who do not use psychoactive drugs are more likely to live with their parents, to disapprove drugs consumption, to practice religious beliefs and to be employed. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of licit and illicit drug use among medical students is high, even though they understand the injuries it may cause.

Multiobjective grammar-based genetic programming applied to the study of asthma and allergy epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and allergies prevalence increased in recent decades, being a serious global health problem. They are complex diseases with strong contextual influence, so that the use of advanced machine learning tools such as genetic programming could be important for the understanding the causal mechanisms explaining those conditions. Here, we applied a multiobjective grammar-based genetic programming (MGGP) to a dataset composed by 1047 subjects. The dataset contains information on the environmental, psychosocial, socioeconomics, nutritional and infectious factors collected from participating children. The objective of this work is to generate models that explain the occurrence of asthma, and two markers of allergy: presence of IgE antibody against common allergens, and skin prick test positivity for common allergens (SPT). RESULTS: The average of the accuracies of the models for asthma higher in MGGP than C4.5. IgE were higher in MGGP than in both, logistic regression and C4.5. MGGP had levels of accuracy similar to RF, but unlike RF, MGGP was able to generate models that were easy to interpret. CONCLUSIONS: MGGP has shown that infections, psychosocial, nutritional, hygiene, and socioeconomic factors may be related in such an intricate way, that could be hardly detected using traditional regression based epidemiological techniques. The algorithm MGGP was implemented in c ++ and is available on repository: http://bitbucket.org/ciml-ufjf/ciml-lib .