A new test for trait mean and variance detects unreported loci for blood-pressure variation.

Variability in quantitative traits has clinical, ecological, and evolutionary significance. Most genetic variants identified for complex quantitative traits have only a detectable effect on the mean of trait. We have developed the mean-variance test (MVtest) to simultaneously model the mean and log-variance of a quantitative trait as functions of genotypes and covariates by using estimating equations. The advantages of MVtest include the facts that it can detect effect modification, that multiple testing can follow conventional thresholds, that it is robust to non-normal outcomes, and that association statistics can be meta-analyzed. In simulations, we show control of type I error of MVtest over several alternatives. We identified 51 and 37 previously unreported associations for effects on blood-pressure variance and mean, respectively, in the UK Biobank. Transcriptome-wide association studies revealed 633 significant unique gene associations with blood-pressure mean variance. MVtest is broadly applicable to studies of complex quantitative traits and provides an important opportunity to detect novel loci.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

EVALUATING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GENETIC ANCESTRY AND THE CLINICAL PHENOME.

There is a desire in research to move away from the concept of race as a clinical factor because it is a societal construct used as an imprecise proxy for geographic ancestry. In this study, we leverage the biobank from Vanderbilt University Medical Center, BioVU, to investigate relationships between genetic ancestry proportion and the clinical phenome. For all samples in BioVU, we calculated six ancestry proportions based on 1000 Genomes references: eastern African (EAFR), western African (WAFR), northern European (NEUR), southern European (SEUR), eastern Asian (EAS), and southern Asian (SAS). From PheWAS, we found phecode categories significantly enriched neoplasms for EAFR, WAFR, and SEUR, and pregnancy complication in SEUR, NEUR, SAS, and EAS (p < 0.003). We then selected phenotypes hypertension (HTN) and atrial fibrillation (AFib) to further investigate the relationships between these phenotypes and EAFR, WAFR, SEUR, and NEUR using logistic regression modeling and non-linear restricted cubic spline modeling (RCS). For EAS and SAS, we chose renal failure (RF) for further modeling. The relationships between HTN and AFib and the ancestries EAFR, WAFR, and SEUR were best fit by the linear model (beta p < 1x10-4 for all) while the relationships with NEUR were best fit with RCS (HTN ANOVA p = 0.001, AFib ANOVA p < 1x10-4). For RF, the relationship with SAS was best fit with a linear model (beta p < 1x10-4) while RCS model was a better fit for EAS (ANOVA p < 1x10-4). In this study, we identify relationships between genetic ancestry and phenotypes that are best fit with non-linear modeling techniques. The assumption of linearity for regression modeling is integral for proper fitting of a model and there is no knowing a priori to modeling if the relationship is truly linear.

Evidence of recent and ongoing admixture in the U.S. and influences on health and disparities.

Many researchers in genetics and social science incorporate information about race in their work. However, migrations (historical and forced) and social mobility have brought formerly separated populations of humans together, creating younger generations of individuals who have more complex and diverse ancestry and race profiles than older age groups. Here, we sought to better understand how temporal changes in genetic admixture influence levels of heterozygosity and impact health outcomes. We evaluated variation in genetic ancestry over 100 birth years in a cohort of 35,842 individuals with electronic health record (EHR) information in the Southeastern United States. Using the software STRUCTURE, we analyzed 2,678 ancestrally informative markers relative to three ancestral clusters (African, East Asian, and European) and observed rising levels of admixture for all clinically-defined race groups since 1990. Most race groups also exhibited increases in heterozygosity and long-range linkage disequilibrium over time, further supporting the finding of increasing admixture in young individuals in our cohort. These data are consistent with United States Census information from broader geographic areas and highlight the changing demography of the population. This increased diversity challenges classic approaches to studies of genotype-phenotype relationships which motivated us to explore the relationship between heterozygosity and disease diagnosis. Using a phenome-wide association study approach, we explored the relationship between admixture and disease risk and found that increased admixture resulted in protective associations with female reproductive disorders and increased risk for diseases with links to autoimmune dysfunction. These data suggest that tendencies in the United States population are increasing ancestral complexity over time. Further, these observations imply that, because both prevalence and severity of many diseases vary by race groups, complexity of ancestral origins influences health and disparities.

Pharmacogenetics of tuberculosis treatment toxicity and effectiveness in a large Brazilian cohort.

Background: Genetic polymorphisms have been associated with risk of anti-tuberculosis treatment toxicity. We characterized associations with adverse events and treatment failure/recurrence among adults treated for tuberculosis in Brazil. Methods: Participants were followed in Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil. We included persons with culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis who started treatment between 2015-2019, and who were evaluable for pharmacogenetics. Treatment included 2 months of isoniazid, rifampin or rifabutin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol, then 4 months of isoniazid and rifampin or rifabutin, with 24 month follow-up. Analyses included 43 polymorphisms in 20 genes related to anti-tuberculosis drug hepatotoxicity or pharmacokinetics. Whole exome sequencing was done in a case-control toxicity subset. Results: Among 903 participants in multivariable genetic association analyses, NAT2 slow acetylator status was associated with increased risk of treatment-related grade 2 or greater adverse events, including hepatotoxicity. Treatment failure/recurrence was more likely among NAT2 rapid acetylators, but not statistically significant at the 5% level. A GSTM1 polymorphism (rs412543) was associated with increased risk of treatment-related adverse events, including hepatotoxicity. SLCO1B1 polymorphisms were associated with increased risk of treatment- related hepatoxicity and treatment failure/recurrence. Polymorphisms in NR1/2 were associated with decreased risk of adverse events and increased risk of failure/recurrence. In whole exome sequencing, hepatotoxicity was associated with a polymorphism in VTI1A , and the genes METTL17 and PRSS57 , but none achieved genome-wide significance. Conclusions: In a clinical cohort representing three regions of Brazil, NAT2 acetylator status was associated with risk for treatment-related adverse events. Additional significant polymorphisms merit investigation in larger study populations.

PheMIME: An Interactive Web App and Knowledge Base for Phenome-Wide, Multi-Institutional Multimorbidity Analysis.

Motivation: Multimorbidity, characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of multiple diseases in an individual, is an increasing global health concern, posing substantial challenges to healthcare systems. Comprehensive understanding of disease-disease interactions and intrinsic mechanisms behind multimorbidity can offer opportunities for innovative prevention strategies, targeted interventions, and personalized treatments. Yet, there exist limited tools and datasets that characterize multimorbidity patterns across different populations. To bridge this gap, we used large-scale electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop the Phenome-wide Multi-Institutional Multimorbidity Explorer (PheMIME), which facilitates research in exploring and comparing multimorbidity patterns among multiple institutions, potentially leading to the discovery of novel and robust disease associations and patterns that are interoperable across different systems and organizations. Results: PheMIME integrates summary statistics from phenome-wide analyses of disease multimorbidities. These are currently derived from three major institutions: Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Mass General Brigham, and the UK Biobank. PheMIME offers interactive exploration of multimorbidity through multi-faceted visualization. Incorporating an enhanced version of associationSubgraphs, PheMIME enables dynamic analysis and inference of disease clusters, promoting the discovery of multimorbidity patterns. Once a disease of interest is selected, the tool generates interactive visualizations and tables that users can delve into multimorbidities or multimorbidity networks within a single system or compare across multiple systems. The utility of PheMIME is demonstrated through a case study on schizophrenia. Availability and implementation: The PheMIME knowledge base and web application are accessible at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME/. A comprehensive tutorial, including a use-case example, is available at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME_supplementary_materials/. Furthermore, the source code for PheMIME can be freely downloaded from https://github.com/tbilab/PheMIME. Data availability statement: The data underlying this article are available in the article and in its online web application or supplementary material.

Uterine leiomyomata and keloids fibrosis origins: a mini-review of fibroproliferative diseases.

Diseases such as uterine leiomyomata (fibroids and benign tumors of the uterus) and keloids (raised scars) may share common etiology. Fibroids and keloids can co-occur in individuals, and both are highly heritable, suggesting they may share common genetic risk factors. Fibroproliferative diseases are common and characterized by scarring and overgrowth of connective tissue, impacting multiple organ systems. These conditions both have racial disparities in prevalence, with the highest prevalence observed among individuals of African ancestry. Several fibroproliferative diseases are more severe and common in populations of sub-Saharan Africa. This mini-review aims to provide a broad overview of the current knowledge of the evolutionary origins and causes of fibroproliferative diseases. We also discuss current hypotheses proposing that the increased prevalence of these diseases in African-derived populations is due to the selection for profibrotic alleles that are protective against helminth infections and provide examples from knowledge of uterine fibroid and keloid research.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Leveraging electronic health record data for endometriosis research.

Endometriosis is a chronic, complex disease for which there are vast disparities in diagnosis and treatment between sociodemographic groups. Clinical presentation of endometriosis can vary from asymptomatic disease-often identified during (in)fertility consultations-to dysmenorrhea and debilitating pelvic pain. Because of this complexity, delayed diagnosis (mean time to diagnosis is 1.7-3.6 years) and misdiagnosis is common. Early and accurate diagnosis of endometriosis remains a research priority for patient advocates and healthcare providers. Electronic health records (EHRs) have been widely adopted as a data source in biomedical research. However, they remain a largely untapped source of data for endometriosis research. EHRs capture diverse, real-world patient populations and care trajectories and can be used to learn patterns of underlying risk factors for endometriosis which, in turn, can be used to inform screening guidelines to help clinicians efficiently and effectively recognize and diagnose the disease in all patient populations reducing inequities in care. Here, we provide an overview of the advantages and limitations of using EHR data to study endometriosis. We describe the prevalence of endometriosis observed in diverse populations from multiple healthcare institutions, examples of variables that can be extracted from EHRs to enhance the accuracy of endometriosis prediction, and opportunities to leverage longitudinal EHR data to improve our understanding of long-term health consequences for all patients.

Sex modifies the effect of genetic risk scores for polycystic ovary syndrome on metabolic phenotypes.

Females with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), the most common endocrine disorder in women, have an increased risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders such as insulin resistance, obesity, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). While only diagnosable in females, males with a family history of PCOS can also exhibit a poor cardiometabolic profile. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the role of sex in the cardiometabolic comorbidities observed in PCOS by conducting bidirectional genetic risk score analyses in both sexes. We first conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) using PCOS polygenic risk scores (PCOSPRS) to identify potential pleiotropic effects of PCOSPRS across 1,380 medical conditions recorded in the Vanderbilt University Medical Center electronic health record (EHR) database, in females and males. After adjusting for age and genetic ancestry, we found that European (EUR)-ancestry males with higher PCOSPRS were significantly more likely to develop hypertensive diseases than females at the same level of genetic risk. We performed the same analysis in an African (AFR)-ancestry population, but observed no significant associations, likely due to poor trans-ancestry performance of the PRS. Based on observed significant associations in the EUR-ancestry population, we then tested whether the PRS for comorbid conditions (e.g., T2D, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, etc.) also increased the odds of a PCOS diagnosis. Only BMIPRS and T2DPRS were significantly associated with a PCOS diagnosis in EUR-ancestry females. We then further adjusted the T2DPRS for measured BMI and BMIresidual (regressed on the BMIPRS and enriched for the environmental contribution to BMI). Results demonstrated that genetically regulated BMI primarily accounted for the relationship between T2DPRS and PCOS. Overall, our findings show that the genetic architecture of PCOS has distinct sex differences in associations with genetically correlated cardiometabolic traits. It is possible that the cardiometabolic comorbidities observed in PCOS are primarily explained by their shared genetic risk factors, which can be further influenced by biological variables including sex and BMI.

Association of genetically-predicted placental gene expression with adult blood pressure traits.

OBJECTIVE: Blood pressure is a complex, polygenic trait, and the need to identify prehypertensive risks and new gene targets for blood pressure control therapies or prevention continues. We hypothesize a developmental origins model of blood pressure traits through the life course where the placenta is a conduit mediating genomic and nongenomic transmission of disease risk. Genetic control of placental gene expression has recently been described through expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies which have identified associations with childhood phenotypes. METHODS: We conducted a transcriptome-wide gene expression analysis estimating the predicted gene expression of placental tissue in adult individuals with genome-wide association study (GWAS) blood pressure summary statistics. We constructed predicted expression models of 15 154 genes from reference placenta eQTL data and investigated whether genetically-predicted gene expression in placental tissue is associated with blood pressure traits using published GWAS summary statistics. Functional annotation of significant genes was generated using FUMA. RESULTS: We identified 18, 9, and 21 genes where predicted expression in placenta was significantly associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP), respectively. There were 14 gene-tissue associations (13 unique genes) significant only in placenta. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis using S-PrediXcan and GWAS summary statistics, the predicted expression in placenta of 48 genes was statistically significantly associated with blood pressure traits. Notable findings included the association of FGFR1 expression with increased SBP and PP. This evidence of gene expression variation in placenta preceding the onset of adult blood pressure phenotypes is an example of extreme preclinical biological changes which may benefit from intervention.

Challenges and Opportunities for Data Science in Women's Health.

The intersection of women's health and data science is a field of research that has historically trailed other fields, but more recently it has gained momentum. This growth is being driven not only by new investigators who are moving into this area but also by the significant opportunities that have emerged in new methodologies, resources, and technologies in data science. Here, we describe some of the resources and methods being used by women's health researchers today to meet challenges in biomedical data science. We also describe the opportunities and limitations of applying these approaches to advance women's health outcomes and the future of the field, with emphasis on repurposing existing methodologies for women's health.

Genetic Predictors of Blood Pressure Traits are Associated with Preeclampsia.

Background: Preeclampsia, a pregnancy complication characterized by hypertension after 20 gestational weeks, is a major cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. The mechanisms leading to preeclampsia are unclear; however, there is evidence that preeclampsia is highly heritable. We evaluated the association of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for blood pressure traits and preeclampsia to assess whether there is shared genetic architecture. Methods: Participants were obtained from Vanderbilt University's BioVU, the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics network, and the Penn Medicine Biobank. Non-Hispanic Black and White females of reproductive age with indications of pregnancy and genotype information were included. Preeclampsia was defined by ICD codes. Summary statistics for diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and pulse pressure (PP) PRS were obtained from Giri et al 2019. Associations between preeclampsia and each PRS were evaluated separately by race and study population before evidence was meta-analyzed. Prediction models were developed and evaluated using 10-fold cross validation. Results: In the 3,504 Black and 5,009 White individuals included, the rate of preeclampsia was 15.49%. The DBP and SBP PRSs were associated with preeclampsia in Whites but not Blacks. The PP PRS was significantly associated with preeclampsia in Blacks and Whites. In trans-ancestry meta-analysis, all PRSs were associated with preeclampsia (OR DBP =1.10, 95% CI=1.02-1.17, p =7.68×10 -3 ; OR SBP =1.16, 95% CI=1.09-1.23, p =2.23×10 -6 ; OR PP =1.14, 95% CI=1.07-1.27, p =9.86×10 -5 ). However, addition of PRSs to clinical prediction models did not improve predictive performance. Conclusions: Genetic factors contributing to blood pressure regulation in the general population also predispose to preeclampsia.

Time-Varying Exposures and Miscarriage: A Comparison of Statistical Models Through Simulation.

Epidemiologists face a unique challenge in measuring risk relationships involving time-varying exposures in early pregnancy. Each week in early pregnancy is distinct in its contribution to fetal development, and this period is commonly characterized by shifts in maternal behavior and, consequently, exposures. In this simulation study, we used alcohol as an example of an exposure that often changes during early pregnancy and miscarriage as an outcome affected by early exposures. Data on alcohol consumption patterns from more than 5,000 women in the Right From the Start cohort study (United States, 2000-2012) informed measures of the prevalence of alcohol exposure, the distribution of gestational age at cessation of alcohol use, and the likelihood of miscarriage by week of gestation. We then compared the bias and precision of effect estimates and statistical power from 5 different modeling approaches in distinct simulated relationships. We demonstrate how the accuracy and precision of effect estimates depended on alignment between model assumptions and the underlying simulated relationship. Approaches that incorporated data about patterns of exposure were more powerful and less biased than simpler models when risk depended on timing or duration of exposure. To uncover risk relationships in early pregnancy, it is critical to carefully define the role of exposure timing in the underlying causal hypothesis.

Inference of Causal Relationships Between Genetic Risk Factors for Cardiometabolic Phenotypes and Female-Specific Health Conditions.

Background Cardiometabolic diseases are highly comorbid, but their relationship with female-specific or overwhelmingly female-predominant health conditions (breast cancer, endometriosis, pregnancy complications) is understudied. This study aimed to estimate the cross-trait genetic overlap and influence of genetic burden of cardiometabolic traits on health conditions unique to women. Methods and Results Using electronic health record data from 71 008 ancestrally diverse women, we examined relationships between 23 obstetrical/gynecological conditions and 4 cardiometabolic phenotypes (body mass index, coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension) by performing 4 analyses: (1) cross-trait genetic correlation analyses to compare genetic architecture, (2) polygenic risk score-based association tests to characterize shared genetic effects on disease risk, (3) Mendelian randomization for significant associations to assess cross-trait causal relationships, and (4) chronology analyses to visualize the timeline of events unique to groups of women with high and low genetic burden for cardiometabolic traits and highlight the disease prevalence in risk groups by age. We observed 27 significant associations between cardiometabolic polygenic scores and obstetrical/gynecological conditions (body mass index and endometrial cancer, body mass index and polycystic ovarian syndrome, type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes, type 2 diabetes and polycystic ovarian syndrome). Mendelian randomization analysis provided additional evidence of independent causal effects. We also identified an inverse association between coronary artery disease and breast cancer. High cardiometabolic polygenic scores were associated with early development of polycystic ovarian syndrome and gestational hypertension. Conclusions We conclude that polygenic susceptibility to cardiometabolic traits is associated with elevated risk of certain female-specific health conditions.

Returning integrated genomic risk and clinical recommendations: The eMERGE study.

PURPOSE: Assessing the risk of common, complex diseases requires consideration of clinical risk factors as well as monogenic and polygenic risks, which in turn may be reflected in family history. Returning risks to individuals and providers may influence preventive care or use of prophylactic therapies for those individuals at high genetic risk. METHODS: To enable integrated genetic risk assessment, the eMERGE (electronic MEdical Records and GEnomics) network is enrolling 25,000 diverse individuals in a prospective cohort study across 10 sites. The network developed methods to return cross-ancestry polygenic risk scores, monogenic risks, family history, and clinical risk assessments via a genome-informed risk assessment (GIRA) report and will assess uptake of care recommendations after return of results. RESULTS: GIRAs include summary care recommendations for 11 conditions, education pages, and clinical laboratory reports. The return of high-risk GIRA to individuals and providers includes guidelines for care and lifestyle recommendations. Assembling the GIRA required infrastructure and workflows for ingesting and presenting content from multiple sources. Recruitment began in February 2022. CONCLUSION: Return of a novel report for communicating monogenic, polygenic, and family history-based risk factors will inform the benefits of integrated genetic risk assessment for routine health care.

Tutorial: Using Community Engagement Studios to Enhance Pharmacogenetic Study Design for Maximizing Enrollment of Diverse Children and Pregnant People.

Most pharmacogenetic research is conducted in adult, non-pregnant populations of European ancestry. Study of more diverse and special populations is necessary to validate findings and improve health equity. However, there are significant barriers to recruitment of diverse populations for genetic studies, such as mistrust of researchers due to a history of unethical research and ongoing social inequities. Engaging communities and understanding community members' perspectives may help to overcome these barriers and improve research quality. Here, we highlight one method for engaging communities, the Community Engagement Studio (CES), a consultative session that allows researchers to obtain guidance and feedback based on community members' lived experiences. We also provide an example of its use in pharmacogenetic studies. In designing a survey study of knowledge and attitudes around pharmacogenetic testing among children with chronic conditions and pregnant individuals, we sought input from diverse community stakeholders through CESs at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. We participated in two CESs with community stakeholders representing study target populations. Our goals were to learn specific concerns about pharmacogenetic testing and preferred recruitment strategies for these communities. Concerns were expressed about how genetic information would be used beyond the immediate study. Participants emphasized the importance of clarity and transparency in communication to overcome participation hesitancy and mistrust of the study team. Recruitment strategy recommendations ranged from informal notices posted in healthcare settings to provider referrals. The CES enabled us to modify our recruitment methods and research materials to better communicate with populations currently under-represented in pharmacogenetics research.

Interactive network-based clustering and investigation of multimorbidity association matrices with associationSubgraphs.

MOTIVATION: Making sense of networked multivariate association patterns is vitally important to many areas of high-dimensional analysis. Unfortunately, as the data-space dimensions grow, the number of association pairs increases in O(n2); this means that traditional visualizations such as heatmaps quickly become too complicated to parse effectively. RESULTS: Here, we present associationSubgraphs: a new interactive visualization method to quickly and intuitively explore high-dimensional association datasets using network percolation and clustering. The goal is to provide an efficient investigation of association subgraphs, each containing a subset of variables with stronger and more frequent associations among themselves than the remaining variables outside the subset, by showing the entire clustering dynamics and providing subgraphs under all possible cutoff values at once. Particularly, we apply associationSubgraphs to a phenome-wide multimorbidity association matrix generated from an electronic health record and provide an online, interactive demonstration for exploring multimorbidity subgraphs. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: An R package implementing both the algorithm and visualization components of associationSubgraphs is available at https://github.com/tbilab/associationsubgraphs. Online documentation is available at https://prod.tbilab.org/associationsubgraphs_info/. A demo using a multimorbidity association matrix is available at https://prod.tbilab.org/associationsubgraphs-example/.

Predictive models for abdominal aortic aneurysms using polygenic scores and PheWAS-derived risk factors.

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are common enlargements of the abdominal aorta which can grow larger until rupture, often leading to death. Detection of AAA is often by ultrasonography and screening recommendations are mostly directed at men over 65 with a smoking history. Recent large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified genetic loci associated with AAA risk. We combined known risk factors, polygenic risk scores (PRS) and precedent clinical diagnoses from electronic health records (EHR) to develop predictive models for AAA, and compared performance against screening recommendations. The PRS included genome-wide summary statistics from the Million Veteran Program and FinnGen (10,467 cases, 378,713 controls of European ancestry), with optimization in Vanderbilt's BioVU and validated in the eMERGE Network, separately across both White and Black participants. Candidate diagnoses were identified through a temporally-oriented Phenome-wide association study in independent EHR data from Vanderbilt, and features were selected via elastic net. We calculated C-statistics in eMERGE for models including PRS, phecodes, and covariates using regression weights from BioVU. The AUC for the full model in the test set was 0.883 (95% CI 0.873-0.892), 0.844 (0.836-0.851) for covariates only, 0.613 (95% CI 0.604-0.622) when using primary USPSTF screening criteria, and 0.632 (95% CI 0.623-0.642) using primary and secondary criteria. Brier scores were between 0.003 and 0.023 for our models indicating good calibration, and net reclassification improvement over combined primary and secondary USPSTF criteria was 0.36-0.60. We provide PRS for AAA which are strongly associated with AAA risk and add to predictive model performance. These models substantially improve identification of people at risk of a AAA diagnosis compared with existing guidelines, with evidence of potential applicability in minority populations.