Seasonality and timing of peak abundance of Aedes albopictus in Europe: Implications to public and animal health.

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.

Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. METHODS: We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. RESULTS: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in nine European countries.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. METHODS: We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. RESULTS: The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. CONCLUSION: We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.

How do species, population and active ingredient influence insecticide susceptibility in Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) of veterinary importance?

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges are biological vectors of internationally important arboviruses of livestock and equines. Insecticides are often employed against Culicoides as a part of vector control measures, but systematic assessments of their efficacy have rarely been attempted. The objective of the present study is to determine baseline susceptibility of multiple Culicoides vector species and populations in Europe and Africa to the most commonly used insecticide active ingredients. Six active ingredients are tested: three that are based on synthetic pyrethroids (alpha-cypermethrin, deltamethrin and permethrin) and three on organophosphates (phoxim, diazinon and chlorpyrifos-methyl). METHODS: Susceptibility tests were conducted on 29,064 field-collected individuals of Culicoides obsoletus Meigen, Culicoides imicola Kieffer and a laboratory-reared Culicoides nubeculosus Meigen strain using a modified World Health Organization assay. Populations of Culicoides were tested from seven locations in four different countries (France, Spain, Senegal and South Africa) and at least four concentrations of laboratory grade active ingredients were assessed for each population. RESULTS: The study revealed that insecticide susceptibility varied at both a species and population level, but that broad conclusions could be drawn regarding the efficacy of active ingredients. Synthetic pyrethroid insecticides were found to inflict greater mortality than organophosphate active ingredients and the colony strain of C. nubeculosus was significantly more susceptible than field populations. Among the synthetic pyrethroids, deltamethrin was found to be the most toxic active ingredient for all species and populations. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented represent the first parallel and systematic assessment of Culicoides insecticide susceptibility across several countries. As such, they are an important baseline reference to monitor the susceptibility status of Culicoides to current insecticides and also to assess the toxicity of new active ingredients with practical implications for vector control strategies.

Host-seeking activity of bluetongue virus vectors: endo/exophagy and circadian rhythm of Culicoides in Western Europe.

Feeding success of free-living hematophagous insects depends on their ability to be active when hosts are available and to reach places where hosts are accessible. When the hematophagous insect is a vector of pathogens, determining the components of host-seeking behavior is of primary interest for the assessment of transmission risk. Our aim was to describe endo/exophagy and circadian host-seeking activity of Palaearctic Culicoides species, which are major biting pests and arbovirus vectors, using drop traps and suction traps baited with four sheep, as bluetongue virus hosts. Collections were carried out in the field, a largely-open stable and an enclosed stable during six collection periods of 24 hours in April/May, in late June and in September/October 2010 in western France. A total of 986 Culicoides belonging to 13 species, mainly C. brunnicans and C. obsoletus, was collected on animal baits. Culicoides brunnicans was clearly exophagic, whereas C. obsoletus was able to enter stables. Culicoides brunnicans exhibited a bimodal pattern of host-seeking activity with peaks just after sunrise and sunset. Culicoides obsoletus was active before sunset in spring and autumn and after sunset in summer, thus illustrating influence of other parameters than light, especially temperature. Description of host-seeking behaviors allowed us to discuss control strategies for transmission of Culicoides-borne pathogens, such as bluetongue virus. However, practical vector-control recommendations are difficult to provide because of the variation in the degree of endophagy and time of host-seeking activity.