Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaking species: influence of environment and migration in a locust.

Many pest species exhibit huge fluctuations in population abundance. Understanding their large-scale and long-term dynamics is necessary to develop effective control and management strategies. Occupancy models represent a promising approach to unravel interactions between environmental factors and spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaking populations. Here, we investigated population dynamics of the Australian plague locust, Chortoicetes terminifera, using density data collected between 1988 and 2010 by the Australian Plague Locust Commission over more than 3 million km2 in eastern Australia. We applied multistate and autologistic multi-season occupancy models to test competing hypotheses about environmental and demographic processes affecting the large-scale dynamics of the Australian plague locust. We found that rainfall and land cover predictors best explained the spatial variability in outbreak probability across eastern Australia. Outbreaks are more likely to occur in temperate than tropical regions, with a faster and more continuous response to rainfall in desert than in agricultural areas. Our results also support the hypothesis that migration tends to propagate outbreaks only locally (over distances lower than 400 km) rather than across climatic regions. Our study suggests that locust outbreak forecasting and management systems could be improved by implementing key environmental factors and migration in hierarchical spatial models. Finally, our modeling framework can be seen as a step towards bridging the gap between mechanistic and more phenomenological models in the spatial analysis of fluctuating populations.

Spatial segregation between invasive and native commensal rodents in an urban environment: a case study in Niamey, Niger.

Invasive rodents have been responsible for the diffusion worldwide of many zoonotic agents, thus representing major threats for public health. Cities are important hubs for people and goods exchange and are thus expected to play a pivotal role in invasive commensal rodent dissemination. Yet, data about urban rodents' ecology, especially invasive vs. native species interactions, are dramatically scarce. Here, we provide results of an extensive survey of urban rodents conducted in Niamey, Niger, depicting the early stages of rodent bioinvasions within a city. We explore the species-specific spatial distributions throughout the city using contrasted approaches, namely field sampling, co-occurrence analysis, occupancy modelling and indicator geostatistics. We show that (i) two species (i.e. rural-like vs. truly commensal) assemblages can be identified, and that (ii) within commensal rodents, invasive (Rattus rattus and Mus musculus) and native (Mastomys natalensis) species are spatially segregated. Moreover, several pieces of arguments tend to suggest that these exclusive distributions reflect an ongoing native-to-invasive species turn over. The underlying processes as well as the possible consequences for humans are discussed.

Demographic origins of skewed operational and adult sex ratios: perturbation analyses of two-sex models.

Skewed sex ratios - operational (OSR) and Adult (ASR) - arise from sexual differences in reproductive behaviours and adult survival rates due to the cost of reproduction. However, skewed sex-ratio at birth, sex-biased dispersal and immigration, and sexual differences in juvenile mortality may also contribute. We present a framework to decompose the roles of demographic traits on sex ratios using perturbation analyses of two-sex matrix population models. Metrics of sensitivity are derived from analyses of sensitivity, elasticity, life-table response experiments and life stage simulation analyses, and applied to the stable stage distribution instead of lambda. We use these approaches to examine causes of male-biased sex ratios in two populations of green-rumped parrotlets (Forpus passerinus) in Venezuela. Female local juvenile survival contributed the most to the unbalanced OSR and ASR due to a female-biased dispersal rate, suggesting sexual differences in philopatry can influence sex ratios more strongly than the cost of reproduction.