Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety.

Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare, and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimize biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all parameters required by a risk model may not be always feasible. This paper describes novel approaches for determining question suitability and for prioritizing questions for systematic review in this area. Risk assessment questions that aim to estimate a parameter are likely to be suitable for systematic review. Such questions can be structured by their "key elements" [e.g., for intervention questions, the population(s), intervention(s), comparator(s), and outcome(s)]. Prioritization of questions to be addressed by systematic review relies on the likely impact and related uncertainty of individual parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritizing systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment.

Strengths and weaknesses of Monte Carlo simulation models and Bayesian belief networks in microbial risk assessment.

We discuss different aspects of farm-to-fork risk assessment from a modelling perspective. Stochastic simulation models as they are presented today represent a mathematical representation of nature. In food safety risk assessment, a common modelling approach consists of a logic chain beginning at the source of the hazard and ending with the unwanted consequences of interest. This 'farm-to-fork' approach usually begins with the hazard on the farm, sometimes with different compartments presenting different parts of the production chain, and ends with the 'dose' received by the consumer or in case a dose response model is available the number of cases of illness. These models are typically implemented as Monte Carlo simulations, which are unidirectional in nature, and the link between statistics and simulation model is not interactive. A possible solution could be the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and this paper tries to discuss in an intuitive way the possibilities of using BBNs as an alternative for Monte Carlo modelling. An inventory is made of the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches, and an example is given showing an additional use of BBNs in biotracing problems.

Validation of a PCR-oligochromatography test for detection of Trypanozoon parasites in a multicenter collaborative trial.

A PCR-oligochromatography test for diagnosis of human and animal trypanosomiasis was evaluated through a multicenter ring trial with six laboratories testing a set of 21 blinded samples, resulting in qualitative data (positive or negative). Results showed an intralaboratory repeatability (accordance) of 88.7% (credible interval [CI], 84.4 to 92.5%) and an interlaboratory repeatability (concordance) of 88.1% (CI, 84.3 to 92.3%).

European Pharmacopoeia foot-and-mouth disease vaccine potency testing in cattle: between test variability and its consequences.

In the event of a foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in a densely populated livestock area within the European Community, emergency vaccination will most likely be employed. The objective of the present study was to support the European FMD control policy by evaluating the between test variability of the European accepted method for assessing the potency, a major determinant in vaccine choice, of an FMD vaccine batch. The test system suffers from low in vivo repeatability and reproducibility (67.6 and 58.8%, respectively). Consequently, the results of 10 identical, individual vaccine potency tests using an FMD virus O1 Manisa vaccine batch indicate that the obtained potency of a vaccine with an overall 50% protective dose (PD(50)) value of 9.99 may vary from 4.59 to 24.25 PD(50).

Estimating the probability of freedom of classical swine fever virus of the East-Belgium wild-boar population.

A report of the Scientific Committee on Animal Health and Animal Welfare of the European Commission (CEC, 1999.) includes recommendations for setting up monitoring programmes for classical swine fever (CSF) infection in a wild-boar population, based on the assumption that one would detect at least 5% prevalence in a CSF-infected wild-boar population. This assumption, however, is not science based. We propose an alternative method to provide evidence for a wild-boar population being free of CSF and evaluate the efficiency of a surveillance programme that was implemented in Belgium in 1998. In our study, the probability of freedom of CSF-virus was estimated based on 789 samples; these were collected from wild-boars within the surveillance programme (within the three provinces which include 95% of the Belgian wild-boar population) and examined by three diagnostics methods (antibody detection, virus detection and virus RNA detection). A Bayesian framework was used for the estimation, accounting for the diagnostic test characteristics without the assumption of the presence of a gold standard. The median probability of freedom of CSF-virus was estimated at 0.970, with a 95% credibility interval of 0.149-1.000. Independent on the choice of the prior information, the posterior distributions for the probability of freedom of CSF-virus were always skewed close to the upper boundary of 1. This represents a big gain of knowledge since we did not use any prior information for the probability of freedom of CSF-virus and took the uncertainty about the accuracy of the diagnostic methods into account.

Comparison of serological tests for equine trypanosomosis in naturally infected horses from Kazakhstan.

In this study, we compared the complement fixation test (CFT), the horse complement fixation test (HCFT) and a card agglutination test for trypanosomosis (CATT/T. evansi) for the diagnosis of equine trypanosomosis in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Cohen's kappa test was used to evaluate the concordance between the three tests. Kappa scores for CFT versus HCFT and CATT are both 0.6165 (95% Confidence Interval CI 0.414--0.819) indicating a "substantial" agreement between CFT and HCFT or CATT, respectively. Kappa for HCFT versus CATT is 0.395 (CI 0.142--0.648) indicating a "fair" agreement between the two tests. In the absence of a golden standard, seroprevalence and sensitivity and specificity of the three tests were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. CFT has a sensitivity of 57.2% (CI 31.5--79.5%) and a specificity of 95.8% (CI 89.2--98.5%), HCFT has a sensitivity of 80.6% (CI 44.1--95.6%) and a specificity of 99.5% (CI 90.7--100%), CATT has a sensitivity of 80.2% (CI 44.5--95.2%) and a specificity of 98.5% (CI 79.5--99.9%). The seroprevalence of equine trypanosomosis in Kazakhstan was estimated at 16.4% (CI 9.4--27.0%). The data suggest that for epidemiological studies and the control of equine trypanosomosis serological tests prove useful since they have a high specificity and a satisfactory sensitivity. Field applicable tests, such as CATT/T. evansi may be used to replace laboratory-based tests, such as CFT and HCFT.

Recombinant RoTat 1.2 variable surface glycoprotein as antigen for diagnosis of Trypanosoma evansi in dromedary camels.

The transcript encoding a predominant Trypanosoma evansi variable surface glycoprotein RoTat 1.2 was cloned and expressed as a recombinant protein in Spodoptera frugiperda and Trichoplusia ni (insect) cells. Its potential as an antigen for specific detection of antibody in serum of dromedary camels affected by surra, was evaluated. In ELISA, the reactivity of the recombinant RoTat 1.2 VSG was similar to that of native RoTat 1.2 VSG. An indirect agglutination reagent was therefore prepared by coupling the recombinant RoTat 1.2 VSG onto latex particles. The performance of the latex agglutination test was evaluated on camel sera, and compared with the performance of CATT/T. evansi and LATEX/T. evansi tests, using the immune trypanolysis assay with T. evansi RoTat 1.2 as a reference test. The relative sensitivity and specificity of the latex coated with recombinant RoTat 1.2 VSG, using a 1:4 serum dilution, were respectively, 89.3 and 99.1%. No differences were observed between the performance of latex coated with recombinant RoTat 1.2 VSG and LATEX/T. evansi or CATT/T. evansi. Here, we describe the successful use of the recombinant RoTat 1.2 VSG for detection of specific antibodies induced by T. evansi infections.

The expression of RoTat 1.2 variable surface glycoprotein (VSG) in Trypanosoma evansi and T. equiperdum.

In order to define whether the variable antigenic type RoTat 1.2 is restricted to Trypansoma evansi and could be used as antigen in serological tests to differentiate T. evansi from Trypansoma equiperdum, the appearance of RoTat 1.2-specific antibodies in rabbits, experimentally infected with T. evansi and T. equiperdum, respectively, was analyzed. Ten strains of T. evansi and 11 strains of T. equiperdum originating from Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America were tested. Rabbit pre-infection sera and sera of days 7, 14, 25, 35 post-infection (p.i.) were analyzed for the presence of antibodies reactive with RoTat 1.2 in immune trypanolysis, ELISA/T. evansi and CATT/T. evansi. Within the duration of the infection (maximum 35 days), all T. evansi as well as 9 out of 11 T. equiperdum infected rabbits became positive in all these tests. The rabbits infected with T. equiperdum OVI (South Africa) and BoTat 1.1 (Morocco) remained negative in the immune trypanolysis test although the latter rabbit became positive in the CATT/T. evansi and ELISA/T. evansi. On the contrary, both rabbits were positive in immune trypanolysis when tested against their respective infecting population. From these data, we conclude that most T. equiperdum strains express isoVATs of RoTat 1.2. This explains, in part, why antibody tests based on T. evansi RoTat 1.2 cannot reliably distinguish between infections caused by T. evansi and those caused by T. equiperdum unless it can be proven that most described T. equiperdum are actually misclassified T. evansi.

Risk analysis of the spread of classical swine fever virus through "neighbourhood infections" for different regions in Belgium.

Risk factors associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" [Epidemiology of classical swine fever. In: Truszczynski, M. (Ed.), Proceedings of the Workshop on Diagnostic Procedures and Measures to Control Classical Swine Fever in Domestic Pigs and the European Wild Boar. Pulaway, Poland, pp. 119-130] during classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks were examined based on information collected during a CSF-epidemic, which occurred in the East Flanders Province of Belgium in 1994. The only risk factor that was associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" was a kernel estimation of the intensity of neighbouring herds (P=0.055) [Interactive spatial data analysis. Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, Essex], i.e. the higher the kernel estimation, the higher the risk for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections. In a second part of the study, the likelihood for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections within an area with a 1 km radius was predicted for every Belgian pig herd, assuming that the herd was infected with CSF-virus. For the prediction of these likelihoods, the model resulting from the risk assessment was used. Finally, the predicted likelihoods were transformed into a raster map after applying a smoothing technique. As a result, different areas in Belgium of higher or lower risk for CSF-virus spread through "neighbourhood infections" could be identified on the map. The areas in Belgium where CSF-outbreaks including "neighbourhood infections" occurred in the past decades were all predicted by the model to be of high risk.

Expression of RoTat 1.2 cross-reactive variable antigen type in Trypanosoma evansi and T. equiperdum.

The variable antigen type (VAT) RoTat 1.2 has been cloned from a T. evansi strain, isolated in 1982 from a water buffalo in Indonesia. All T. evansi isolates hitherto tested express this VAT. In a study on the differential diagnosis of T. equiperdum and T. evansi in horses, we investigated serological evidence for the expression of RoTat 1.2 in 11 T. evansi and six T. equiperdum populations originating from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Preinfection sera and sera of days 7, 14, 25, and 35 post-infection (p.i.) were analyzed for the presence of antibodies reactive with RoTat 1.2 in immune trypanolysis, ELISA/T. evansi and CATT/T. evansi. Within the duration of the experiment, all rabbits infected with T. evansi became positive in the three serological tests. Five out of six rabbits infected with T. equiperdum also became positive in the three tests. Only one T. equiperdum strain (the OVI strain from South Africa) did not induce the production of antibodies reactive with RoTat 1.2 and thus might not contain or express a VSG that shares epitopes similar to those on the RoTat 1.2 VSG. The data lead to the conclusion that T. equiperdum can express VSGs containing epitopes serologically similar to those in the T. evansi RoTat 1.2 VAT. This explains, in part, why the antibody detection tests based on Ro Tat 1.2 VSG cannot reliably distinguish between the infections caused by T. evansi and those caused by T. equiperdum. There are no data that contradict the possibility that the putative T. equiperdum strains, which express VSGs with epitopes similar to those on RoTat 1.2, are actually T. evansi.

Evaluation of whole fresh blood and dried blood on filter paper discs in serological tests for Trypanosoma evansi in experimentally infected water buffaloes.

In this study we investigated if whole blood could substitute for serum in the direct card agglutination test (CATT/Trypansosoma evansi) and the indirect card agglutination test (LATEX/T. evansi) for the sero-diagnosis of T. evansi in buffaloes. Likewise blood spots on filter paper were compared with sera for use in the indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay/T. evansi (ELISA) and immunotrypanolysis test (T.L./T. evansi). Samples were collected weekly from experimentally T. evansi infected- and non-infected water buffaloes. To estimate test agreement between serum and respectively whole fresh blood and dried blood spots on filterpaper of the tests, kappa values with 95% confidence intervals were calculated, 0.75+/-0.11 for the CATT/T. evansi; 0.80+/-0.11 for the ELISA/T. evansi; 0.84+/-0.11 for the LATEX/T. evansi and 0.93+/-0.11 for the T.L./T. evansi. In addition kappa values with 95% confidence intervals were computed to assess agreement between results obtained in the reference T.L./T. evansi test and those obtained in the other assays; 0.70+/-0.10 for the CATT-Serum; 0.75+/-0.11 for the LATEX-Blood; 0.77+/-0.11 for the LATEX-Serum; 0.81+/-0.10 for the CATT-Blood; 0.81+/-0.11 for the ELISA-Serum and 0.84+/-0.11 for the ELISA-Confetti. Based on the high kappa values as calculated, we conclude that serum can be replaced by fresh whole blood for the agglutination assays or blood on filter paper for the ELISA/T. evansi and T.L./T. evansi.

General expression of RoTat 1.2 variable antigen type in Trypanosoma evansi isolates from different origin.

The variable surface glycoprotein of Trypanosoma evansi RoTat 1.2 variable antigen type (VAT) is used as an antigen in different antibody detection assays for T. evansi. To obtain more information on the predominant character of RoTat 1.2 and its diagnostic potential in antibody detection tests, we checked its expression in 10 different T. evansi stocks and clones from different parts of the world. Cryostabilates were injected into mice and the trypanosomes of the first peak parasitaemia were screened for the presence of RoTat 1.2 by VAT specific immunofluorescence. To monitor the appearance of RoTat 1.2 specific antibodies during infection, rabbits were infected and serologically tested at different time intervals with VAT specific immune trypanolysis, CATT/T. evansi, LATEX/T. evansi and ELISA/T. evansi. Test results confirm the predominant character of RoTat 1.2.

A comparative evaluation of parasitological tests and a PCR for Trypanosoma evansi diagnosis in experimentally infected water buffaloes.

In this study five parasitological methods and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were compared for the diagnostic sensitivity for Trypanosoma evansi in experimentally infected water buffaloes over a period of 15 weeks. The combined estimates of sensitivity (CE(se)) of the PCR proved to be highest at 78.2%, closely followed by the mouse inoculation (MI), the micro-haematocrite centrifugation technique (MHCT) and the mini-anion-exchange centrifugation technique (MAECT) with CE(se) of, respectively, 74.0, 69.6 and 62.4%. The CE(se) of the buffy-coat technique (BCT) at 38.6% and the sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) clarification technique at 25.1% were considerably lower. PCR detected consistently all buffaloes infected from week 3 post-infection (PI) onwards. For MI this occurred after 5 weeks PI while for MHCT and MAECT these sustainable high levels were reached in the 7th week PI. BCT and SDS never detected all buffaloes infected. The influence of time and temperature on the viability of T. evansi in heparinized blood from water buffalo was also studied. In general we observed that the survival time tends to be longer when blood is kept at 4 degrees C. In samples kept in direct sunlight parasites became undetectable with the MHCT after 30min. After treatment of the water buffaloes with diminazene aceturate, the PCR signal disappeared within 24h.

Trypanosoma evansi: cloning and expression in Spodoptera frugiperda [correction of fugiperda] insect cells of the diagnostic antigen RoTat1.2.

A complementary DNA encoding the variant surface glycoprotein (VSG) of Trypanosoma evansi Rode Trypanozoon antigenic type (RoTat)1.2, currently used for experimental serological diagnosis of T. evansi infection in livestock, was cloned as a recombinant plasmid and sequenced. A recombinant baculovirus containing the coding region of RoTat1.2 VSG was constructed to express the protein in Spodoptera frugiperda [corrected] insect cells. From this, sufficient quantities of the recombinant protein are being produced for empirical and wide-scale objective assessment of the diagnostic potential of this antigen. The gene encoding the RoTat1.2 VSG was shown by PCR to be present in the genomes of many different cloned isolates of T. evansi, but not T. brucei, from geographically separate regions of Africa, Asia, and South America. With the recombinant RoTat1.2 at hand, it is now possible to investigate the extent to which epitopes on this VSG are conserved among different T. evansi isolates.

Comparison of serological tests for Trypanosoma evansi natural infections in water buffaloes from north Vietnam.

In the present study, a collection of 415 water buffalo serum samples originating from the north of Vietnam was used for evaluation of different diagnostic antibody detection methods available to detect infections with Trypanosoma evansi. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of a direct card agglutination test (CATT/T. evansi), an indirect card agglutination test (LATEX/T. evansi) and a newly developed antibody detection ELISA (ELISA/T. evansi) was calculated on the basis of parasitological results, obtained by mouse inoculation, and compared for all assays. The immume trypanolysis assay with the predominant T. evansi RoTat 1.2 variable antigen type was used as reference test for antibody presence. All parasitologically confirmed animals (n=8) were positive in all tests. Diagnostic specificity was highest in CATT/T. evansi (98%) followed by the ELISA/T. evansi (95%) and the LATEX/T. evansi (82%). Concordance of the variant specific immune trypanolysis test with the other tests was calculated and revealed that few (1-8%) false positive results were actually due to a specific reactions, and that LATEX/T. evansi and ELISA/T. evansi detected more immune trypanolysis positives than the CATT/T. evansi. It was concluded that, apart from the immune trypanolysis test, which is not generally applicable, ELISA/T. evansi with a 30% positivity cut-off and LATEX/T. evansi, thanks to their superior capacity of detecting T. evansi specific antibodies, would be suitable as epidemiological tools detecting both active infections and persisting T. evansi specific antibodies. The ELISA/T. evansi with a 50% positivity cut-off and the CATT/T. evansi on the other hand, seem more appropriate to detect true infected water buffaloes.

Camel trypanosomosis in the Canary Islands: assessment of seroprevalence and infection rates using the card agglutination test (CATT/T. evansi) and parasite detection tests.

Trypanosomosis due to Trypanosoma evansi (surra) is a major enzootic disease of the dromedary camel. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to assess seroprevalence and infection rates in the Canary Islands using antibody(-card agglutination test-CATT/T. evansi) and parasite detection tests (micro-Haematocrit Centrifugation technique, Giemsa stained blood smears, microscopic examination of lymph node aspirates and mouse inoculation). PCV was also determined. 745 dromedary camels (483 females and 262 males) were examined. Trypanosomes were detected in seven animals. 36 animals yielded CATT positive results while 709 animals were negative. All parasitologically positive animals were also CATT positive. Results showed a good correlation between CATT positive and low PCV and a higher seroprevalence in older animals. Trypanocidal drugs have not been registered in Spain and, consequently, if vigilance is not exercised the prevalence could be increased in the future.

Comparative in vitro isolation of Trypanosoma theileri from cattle in Belgium.

Ten blood samples randomly collected from cows on a farm nearby Antwerp, Belgium, were inoculated into KIVI culture medium (Kit for In Vitro Isolation of trypanosomes) and RPMI 10%+feeder medium. Within 3 weeks of incubation all KIVI cultures and four RPMI 10%+feeder revealed presence of Trypanosoma theileri. Some practical implications regarding the use of KIVI for isolation of pathogenic African trypanosomes from cattle and other Bovidae are discussed.

Isolation of Trypanosoma brucei from the monitor lizard (Varanus niloticus) in an endemic focus of Rhodesian sleeping sickness in Kenya.

Monitor lizards were sampled along the shores of Lake Victoria to detect natural infections of potentially human-infective trypanosomes. In an area with endemic rhodesian sleeping sickness, one of 19 lizards was infected (Busia, Kenya). Six of ten lizards also showed indirect evidence of infection with Trypanosoma brucei (antibody ELISA). In an area with no recent history of human disease (Rusinga Island), no parasites were found and no antibodies to T. brucei were detected. The isolate was identified as T. brucei through xenodiagnosis (completion of the life cycle in the salivary glands of tsetse), and through molecular techniques (positive reactions with a PCR primer and a microsatellite DNA probe characteristic of the subgenus Trypanozoon). Experimental infections of monitor lizards were also attempted with a variety of parasites and tsetse species. It was possible to infect monitor lizards with T. brucei but not with forest or savannah genotypes of Trypanosoma congolense. Parasites reached low levels of parasitaemia for a short period without generating any pathology; they also remained infective to tsetse and laboratory rats. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the endemicity of sleeping sickness.