Frequency and Outcomes of Abnormal Imaging in Patients With Cirrhosis Enrolled in a Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Program.

There are limited data on the downstream effects of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, including the frequency of false-positive results. We aimed to quantify the incidence of indeterminate nodules (INs) and the follow-up testing needed to resolve these findings among patients enrolled in a structured HCC surveillance program. We retrospectively analyzed adult patients with cirrhosis enrolled in a structured HCC surveillance program in a large tertiary care center. Outcomes included surveillance benefits, defined as early HCC detection, and harm, defined as INs prompting additional diagnostic evaluation. Among 999 patients followed for a median of 2.2 years, HCC surveillance imaging was consistently completed every 6, 9, and 12 months in 46%, 51%, and 68% of patients, respectively. Of 256 (25.6%) patients with abnormal imaging, 69 (27.0%) were diagnosed with HCC and 187 (73.0%) with INs. Most HCC (n = 54, 78.3%) were found within Milan criteria. Among those with an IN, 78.1% returned to ultrasound surveillance after a median of 2 (interquartile range [IQR], 1-3) negative computed tomography (CT)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, and 21.9% continued CT/MRI imaging (median, 1; IQR, 1-2). Eleven patients underwent diagnostic liver biopsy. Hypoalbuminemia, thrombocytopenia, and larger nodule size were independently associated with HCC diagnosis. In conclusion, 1 in 4 patients enrolled in an HCC surveillance program had abnormal surveillance imaging, but three-fourths of the lesions were INs, resulting in downstream harm. Improved risk-stratification tools are needed to identify nodules that are benign to reduce follow-up diagnostic evaluation.

Assessing risk of fibrosis progression and liver-related clinical outcomes among patients with both early stage and advanced chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing risk of adverse outcomes among patients with chronic liver disease has been challenging due to non-linear disease progression. We previously developed accurate prediction models for fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes among patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The primary aim of this study was to validate fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes models among a heterogeneous patient cohort. DESIGN: Adults with CHC with ≥3 years follow-up and without hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplant (LT), HBV or HIV co-infection at presentation were analyzed (N = 1007). Outcomes included: 1) fibrosis progression 2) hepatic decompensation 3) HCC and 4) LT-free survival. Predictors included longitudinal clinical and laboratory data. Machine learning methods were used to predict outcomes in 1 and 3 years. RESULTS: The external cohort had a median age of 49.4 years (IQR 44.3-54.3); 61% were male, 80% white, and 79% had genotype 1. At presentation, 73% were treatment naïve and 31% had cirrhosis. Fibrosis progression occurred in 34% over a median of 4.9 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Clinical outcomes occurred in 22% over a median of 4.4 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Model performance for fibrosis progression was limited due to small sample size. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for 1 and 3-year risk of clinical outcomes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.81). CONCLUSION: Accurate assessments for risk of clinical outcomes can be obtained using routinely collected data across a heterogeneous cohort of patients with CHC. These methods can be applied to predict risk of progression in other chronic liver diseases.