Drought conditions, aridity and forest structure control the responses of Iberian holm oak woodlands to extreme droughts: A large-scale remote-sensing exploration in eastern Spain.

Understanding how Mediterranean forests respond to the increasing frequency of extreme droughts and forest densification is crucial for effective land management in the present context of climate change and land abandonment. We study the responses of Iberian holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) woodlands to recent extreme droughts during 2000-2019 along broad gradients of climate aridity and forest structure. To this purpose, we apply large-scale remote-sensing using MODIS EVI as a primary production proxy in 5274 Q. ilex sites distributed within a 100,000 km2 region in eastern Spain. These woodlands were extensively affected by two extreme drought events in 2005 and 2012. Resistance, assessed as the capacity of the ecosystems to maintain primary production during drought, was significantly lower for semi-arid than for sub-humid and dry-transition conditions. Holm oak woodlands located in semi-arid areas of the region showed also poorer resilience to drought, characterized by low capacity to fully recover to their pre-drought production levels. Further, drought intensity and both pre- and post-drought hydric conditions controlled the variations of resistance, recovery and resilience between the two analyzed extreme drought events. Drought effects were particularly negative for dense Q. ilex stands under semi-arid climate conditions, where strong competition for scarce water resources reduced drought resistance. The observed drought vulnerability of semi-arid holm oak woodlands may affect the long-term stability of these dry forests. Adaptive management strategies, such as selective forest thinning, may be useful for improving drought responses in these more vulnerable semi-arid woodlands. Conversely, natural rewilding may more appropriately guide management actions for more humid areas, where densely developed Q. ilex woodlands show in general a high ability to maintain ecosystem primary production during drought.

Six Decades of Hindsight Into Yesa Reservoir (Central Spanish Pyrenees): River Flow Dwindles as Vegetation Cover Increases and Mediterranean Atmospheric Dynamics Take Control.

River discharge has experienced diverse changes in the last decades due to modification of hydrological patterns, anthropogenic intervention, re-vegetation or annual and interannual climatic and atmospheric fluctuations. Assessing the recent changes in river discharge and understanding the main drivers of these changes is thus extremely important from theoretical and applied points of view. More specifically, here we want to draw attention toward the impacts of streamflow changes on reservoir storage and operation. We describe the hydrological dynamics of the Yesa reservoir draining catchment, located in the central Spanish Pyrenees, and characterize the reservoir operation modes over the last 60 years (1956-2020). We analyze concurrent climatic (precipitation, air temperature, drought index), atmospheric mechanisms, land cover (Normalized Different Vegetation Index) and discharge (inlet and outlet of Yesa reservoir) time-series. By using the wavelet transform methodology, we detect historical breakpoints in the hydrological dynamics at different time-scales. Distinctive periods are thus identified. More regular seasonal flows characterized the catchment's dynamics during the first decades of the study period, while the last decades were characterized by a high inter-annual variability. These changes are primarily attributed to the natural re-vegetation process that the catchment experienced. Furthermore, we related changes in atmospheric circulation with a decline of the long-term discharge temporal features. This research contributes to the understanding of long-term river discharge changes and helps to improve the reservoir management practices.

Near-real time flash drought monitoring system and dataset for Spain.

Flash droughts are characterized by rapid development and intensification, which makes early warning and monitoring difficult. Flash drought monitor (FDM) is a near-real time monitoring system for Spain (https://flash-drought.csic.es) based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Flash drought identification was based on rapid and anomalous declines in SPEI at a short time scale (1-month). Thus, FDM enables operational tracking of flash drought conditions in Spain at high spatial resolution (1.1 × 1.1 km) and high temporal frequency (weekly). Likewise, to put flash drought monitoring into a temporal context, the FDM also provides weekly flash drought conditions recorded in Spain from 1961 to the present. The FDM is a useful tool for preparedness and mitigation of flash droughts in Spain. Furthermore, the data provided by the FDM could be useful to develop future studies in relation to the flash drought in Spain.

The potential of using climate indices as powerful tools to explain mortality anomalies: An application to mainland Spain.

Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events represent one of the key indicators of climate change and variability. These events can have an important impact on mortality rates, especially in the ageing population. This study assessed the spatial and seasonal distributions of mortality rates in mainland Spain and their association with climatic conditions over the period 1979-2016. The analysis was done on a seasonal and annual basis using 79 climatic indices and regional natural deaths data. Results indicate large spatial variability of natural deaths, which is mostly related to how the share of the elderly in the population varied across the studied regions. Spatially, both the highest mortality rates and the largest percentage of elders were found in the northwest areas of the study domain, where an extreme climate prevails, with very cold winters and hot summers. A strong seasonality effect was observed, winter shows more than 10% of natural deaths compared to the rest of the seasons. Also, results suggest a strong relation between climatic indices and natural deaths, albeit with a high spatial and seasonal variability. Climatic indices and natural deaths show a stronger correlation in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.

The complex multi-sectoral impacts of drought: Evidence from a mountainous basin in the Central Spanish Pyrenees.

We analyzed the impacts of drought severity on a variety of sectors in a topographically complex basin (the upper Aragón basin 2181 km2) in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Using diverse data sources including meteorological and hydrological observations, remote sensing and tree rings, we analyze the possible hydrological implications of drought occurrence and severity on water availability in various sectors, including downstream impacts on irrigation water supply for crop production. Results suggest varying responses in forest activity, secondary growth, plant phenology, and crop yield to drought impacts. Specifically, meteorological droughts have distinct impacts downstream, mainly due to water partitioning between streamflow and irrigation channels that transport water to crop producing areas. This implies that drought severity can extend beyond the physical boundaries of the basin, with impacts on crop productivity. This complex response to drought impacts makes it difficult to develop objective basin-scale operational definitions for monitoring drought severity. Moreover, given the high spatial variability in responses to drought across sectors, it is difficult to establish reliable drought thresholds from indices that are relevant across all socio-economic sectors. The anthropogenic impacts (e.g. water regulation projects, ecosystem services, land cover and land use changes) pose further challenges to assessing the response of different systems to drought severity. This study stresses the need to consider the seasonality of drought impacts and appropriate drought time scales to adequately assess and understand their complexity.

Hydrological and depositional processes associated with recent glacier recession in Yanamarey catchment, Cordillera Blanca (Peru).

In this study, we investigate changes in the glaciated surface and the formation of lakes in the headwater of the Querococha watershed in Cordillera Blanca (Peru) using 24 Landsat images from 1975 to 2014. Information of glacier retreat was integrated with available climate data, the first survey of recent depositional dynamics in proglacial Yanamarey Lake (4600m a.s.l.), and a relatively short hydrological record (2002-2014) at the outlet of Yanamarey Lake. A statistically significant temperature warming (0.21°C decade-1 for mean annual temperature) has been detected in the region, and it caused a reduction of the glacierized area since 1975 from 3.5 to 1.4km-2. New small lakes formed in the deglaciated areas, increasing the flooded area from1.8ha in 1976 to 2.8ha in 2014. A positive correlation between annual rates of glacier recession and runoff was found. Sediment cores revealed a high sedimentation rate (>1cmyr-1) and two contrasted facies, suggesting a shift toward a reduction of meltwater inputs and higher hydrological variability likely due to an increasing role of precipitation on runoff during the last decades. Despite the age control uncertainties, the main transition likely occurred around 1998-2000, correlating with the end of the phase with maximum warming rates and glacier retreat during the 1980s and 1990s, and the slowing down of expansion of surface lake-covered surface. With this hydrological - paleolimnological approach we have documented the association between recent climate variability and glacier recession and the rapid transfer of hydroclimate signal to depositional and geochemical processes in high elevation Andean environments. This, study also alerts about water quality risks as proglacial lakes act as secondary reservoirs that trap trace and minor elements in high altitude basins.

Three millennia of heavy rainfalls in Western Mediterranean: frequency, seasonality and atmospheric drivers.

Documenting subdecadal-scale heavy rainfall (HR) variability over several millennia can rarely be accomplished due to the paucity of high resolution, homogeneous and continuous proxy records. Here, using a unique, seasonally resolved lake record from southern Europe, we quantify temporal changes in extreme HR events for the last 2,800 years in this region and their correlation with negative phases of the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO). Notably, scarce HR dominated by a persistent positive MO mode characterizes the so-called Migration period (CE 370-670). Large hydroclimatic variability, particularly between CE 1012 and 1164, singles out the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, whereas more stationary HR conditions occurred between CE 1537 and 1805 coinciding with the Little Ice Age. This exceptional paleohydrological record highlights that the present-day trend towards strengthened hydrological deficit and less HR in the western Mediterranean is neither acute nor unusual in the context of Late Holocene hydrometeorological variability at centennial to decadal time scales.

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees.

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced.