Beyond flood hazard. Mapping the loss probability of pedestrians to improve risk estimation and communication.

The effective communication of flood hazard and risk is a necessary step to foster preparedness and resilience, hence reducing the detrimental impacts of flooding events. Classical flood maps, which show flow depth and velocity, have often proved to be incomprehensible to the majority of people. Some recent studies used color maps to convey the spatial distribution of diverse hazard indexes that, accounting for both water depth and velocity, are intended to communicate the hazard degree in a more intelligible way. It is first shown that these hazard indexes have some inherent limitations, as for example the implicit assumption of a linear relationship between flood hazard and flow velocity. As an alternative, we propose to map the loss probability (LP) of pedestrians exposed to floodwaters, which is a physics-based and data-consistent risk index accounting for both hazard and vulnerability. LP can be easily computed and allows for a sounder estimation and a more effective communication of flood risk to the general public.

Loss of geomorphic diversity in shallow tidal embayments promoted by storm-surge barriers.

Coastal flooding prevention measures, such as storm-surge barriers, are being widely adopted globally because of the accelerating rise in sea levels. However, their impacts on the morphodynamics of shallow tidal embayments remain poorly understood. Here, we combine field data and modeling results from the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy) to identify short- and long-term consequences of flood regulation on lagoonal landforms. Artificial reduction of water levels enhances wave-induced sediment resuspension from tidal flats, promoting in-channel deposition, at the expense of salt marsh vertical accretion. In Venice, we estimate that the first 15 closures of the recently installed mobile floodgates operated between October 2020 and January 2021 contributed to a 12% reduction in marsh deposition, simultaneously promoting a generalized channel infilling. Therefore, suitable countermeasures need to be taken to offset these processes and prevent significant losses of geomorphic diversity due to repeated floodgate closures, whose frequency will increase as sea levels rise further.

Floods, landscape modifications and population dynamics in anthropogenic coastal lowlands: The Polesine (northern Italy) case study.

It is widely recognized that the complex relationship between humans, soil, and water has become increasingly complicated due to anthropogenic activities, and is further expected to worsen in the future as a result of population dynamics and climate change. The present study aims at shedding light on the multifaceted links between floods, landscape modifications, and population dynamics in anthropogenic coastal lowlands, using a large flood-prone area (the Polesine Region, northeastern Italy) as a significant case study. Based on the analysis of historical events and the results of hydraulic modeling, it is shown that human interventions on both the landscape and the subsoil have substantially altered the flood dynamics, exacerbating hydraulic hazard. Furthermore, the combined analysis of people and assets exposure to inundation reveals that flood risk is not properly taken into account in land-use planning, nor it is properly understood by people living in areas subject to low-probability, high-impact flood events.