Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.

Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming.

Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. In this study, we resurveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years after the initial surveys in three protected areas along a west-to-east gradient of increasingly steep recent warming trends in eastern Canada (Québec). Consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming has been an important driver of vegetation change, we found an increasing magnitude of changes in species richness and composition from west to east among the three parks. For the two mountainous parks, we found no significant changes in elevational species' distributions in the easternmost park (raw mean = +11.4 m at Forillon Park) where warming has been minimal, and significant upward distribution shifts in the centrally located park (+38.9 m at Mont-Mégantic), where the recent warming trend has been marked. Community Temperature Indices (CTI), reflecting the average affinities of locally co-occurring species to temperature conditions across their geographic ranges ("Species Temperature Indices"), did not change over time as predicted. However, close examination of the underpinnings of CTI values suggested a high sensitivity to uncertainty in individual species' temperature indices, and so a potentially limited responsiveness to warming. Overall, by testing a priori predictions concerning variation among parks in the direction and magnitude of vegetation changes, we have provided stronger evidence for a link between climate warming and biotic responses than otherwise possible and provided a potential explanation for large variation among studies in warming-related biotic changes.

Food-web structure of willow-galling sawflies and their natural enemies across Europe.

Communities consist of species and their interactions. They can thus be described as networks, with species as nodes and interactions as links. Within such networks, the diversity of nodes and the distribution of links may affect patterns of energy transfer between trophic levels, the dynamics of the system, and the outcome in terms of ecosystem functioning. To date, most descriptions of networks have focused on single or relatively few sites, and have oftentimes been built on poorly resolved nodes and links. Yet, comparisons of local interaction networks reveal variation in space and in time, thus spurring interest in methods and theory for understanding patterns, drivers, and consequences of this variation. Progress in this field relies on access to replicate samples of comparable food webs across large spatiotemporal scales, resolved to species rather than to compound nodes. Due to the massive efforts required, high-quality data sets are still scarce. We created a data set on a single community type sampled across Europe: willow species (Salix), willow-galling sawflies (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae: Nematinae: Euurina), and their natural enemies (hymenopteran parasitoids and coleopteran, lepidopteran, dipteran, and hymenopteran inquilines). Each sample was referenced in space and time, and each node resolved with the highest possible resolution, including taxonomic affinity, gall type (for herbivores), and mode of parasitism (for natural enemies). Galler survival and link structure were resolved by dissection and rearing of gall inhabitants. In total, the data set is based on 641 site visits over 29 years, and on 165,424 galls representing 96 herbivore nodes and 52 plant nodes. The dissections and rearings yielded 42,129 natural enemies belonging to 126 species, and revealed 1,173 different links. The spatiotemporal and taxonomic resolution of these data make them amenable to analyses of both ecological and evolutionary processes of network assembly. Thus, this data set will facilitate testing of important hypotheses in recent community theory, concerning, e.g., the sampling effort needed to adequately describe interaction structure within ecological communities, the impact of environmental conditions and biotic filters on the distribution of species and their interactions, and the relationship between the global "metaweb" and its local realizations.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.