Global modeling of nature's contributions to people.

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

Opportunities for natural infrastructure to improve urban water security in Latin America.

Governments, development banks, corporations, and nonprofits are increasingly considering the potential contribution of watershed conservation activities to secure clean water for cities and to reduce flood risk. These organizations, however, often lack decision-relevant, initial screening information across multiple cities to identify which specific city-watershed combinations present not only water-related risks but also potentially attractive opportunities for mitigation via natural infrastructure approaches. To address this need, this paper presents a novel methodology for a continental assessment of the potential for watershed conservation activities to improve surface drinking water quality and mitigate riverine and stormwater flood risks in 70 major cities across Latin America. We used publicly available geospatial data to analyze 887 associated watersheds. Water quality metrics assessed the potential for agricultural practices, afforestation, riparian buffers, and forest conservation to mitigate sediment and phosphorus loads. Flood reduction metrics analyzed the role of increasing infiltration, restoring riparian wetlands, and reducing connected impervious surface to mitigate riverine and stormwater floods for exposed urban populations. Cities were then categorized based on relative opportunity potential to reduce identified risks through watershed conservation activities. We find high opportunities for watershed activities to mitigate at least one of the risks in 42 cities, potentially benefiting 96 million people or around 60% of the urbanites living in the 70 largest cities in Latin America. We estimate water quality could be improved for 72 million people in 27 cities, riverine flood risk mitigated for 5 million people in 13 cities, and stormwater flooding mitigated for 44 million people in 14 cities. We identified five cities with the potential to simultaneously enhance water quality and mitigate flood risks, and in contrast, six cities where conservation efforts are unlikely to meaningfully mitigate either risk. Institutions investing in natural infrastructure to improve water security in Latin America can maximize their impact by focusing on specific watershed conservation activities either for cleaner drinking water or flood mitigation in cities identified in our analysis where these interventions are most likely to reduce risk.

Valuing investments in sustainable land management in the Upper Tana River basin, Kenya.

We analyze the impacts of investments in sustainable land use practices on ecosystem services in the Upper Tana basin, Kenya. This work supports implementation of the Upper Tana-Nairobi Water Fund, a public-private partnership to safeguard ecosystem service provision and food security. We apply an integrated modelling framework, building on local knowledge and previous field- and model-based studies, to link biophysical landscape changes at high temporal and spatial resolution to economic benefits for key actors in the basin. The primary contribution of this study is that it a) presents a comprehensive analysis for targeting interventions that takes into account stakeholder preferences, local environmental and socio-economic conditions, b) relies on detailed, process-based, biophysical models to demonstrate the biophysical return on those investments for a practical, decision-driven case, and c) in close collaboration with downstream water users, links those biophysical outputs to monetary metrics, including: reduced water treatment costs, increased hydropower production, and crop yield benefits for agricultural producers in the conservation area. This study highlights the benefits and trade-offs that come with conducting participatory research as part of a stakeholder engagement process: while results are more likely to be decision-relevant within the local context, navigating stakeholder expectations and data limitations present ongoing challenges.

Impacts of water resources development on flow regimes in the Brazos River.

The Brazos River, the second largest basin in Texas, represents one of the most highly developed river systems in the state. Thirty-nine reservoirs with capacities greater than 5,000 acre-feet are currently in operation in the basin. Impacts on stream ecosystems are evidenced by changes in flow regimes and resulting changes in fish assemblages over the past 50 years. These changes have been widely attributed to human impacts, through the construction of dams, diversion of water supplies for agricultural and municipal uses, and land use change. However, streamflow regimes result from a complex mix of drivers that include climate, topography, land cover, land use practices, reservoir management practices, dam releases, and water consumption patterns, making determination of anthropogenic impacts problematic. This study quantifies changes in flow regime and probable historical drivers including precipitation, dam construction, population growth, and changing water demand in the Brazos River basin over the past 100 years. Results indicate that the climate of the basin has been relatively stable over the study period, while large-scale changes in human population densities and intense water resources development are correlated with impacts on flow regimes, decreasing the frequency and magnitude of high flow events and stabilizing low flows. These changes have resulted in an increase of habitat generalist fish species, a decrease of native obligate riverine fishes, and an overall homogenization of species assemblages. The results of this study indicate the importance of combining ecological data with an assessment of social drivers for a greater understanding of the dynamics of river basin systems.