Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction.

Clinical mass spectrometry proteomic diagnosis by conformal predictors.

The paper describes an application of conformal predictors to diagnose breast cancer using proteomic mass spectrometry data provided by Leiden University Medical Center. Unlike many conventional classification systems, this approach allows us not just to classify samples, but add valid measures of confidence in our predictions for individual patients.