Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic underlined the need for pandemic planning but also brought into focus the use of mathematical modelling to support public health decisions. The types of models needed (compartment, agent-based, importation) are described. Best practices regarding biological realism (including the need for multidisciplinary expert advisors to modellers), model complexity, consideration of uncertainty and communications to decision-makers and the public are outlined. Methods: A narrative review was developed from the experiences of COVID-19 by members of the Public Health Agency of Canada External Modelling Network for Infectious Diseases (PHAC EMN-ID), a national community of practice on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases for public health. Results: Modelling can best support pandemic preparedness in two ways: 1) by modelling to support decisions on resource needs for likely future pandemics by estimating numbers of infections, hospitalized cases and cases needing intensive care, associated with epidemics of "hypothetical-yet-plausible" pandemic pathogens in Canada; and 2) by having ready-to-go modelling methods that can be readily adapted to the features of an emerging pandemic pathogen and used for long-range forecasting of the epidemic in Canada, as well as to explore scenarios to support public health decisions on the use of interventions. Conclusion: There is a need for modelling expertise within public health organizations in Canada, linked to modellers in academia in a community of practice, within which relationships built outside of times of crisis can be applied to enhance modelling during public health emergencies. Key challenges to modelling for pandemic preparedness include the availability of linked public health, hospital and genomic data in Canada.

Evidence brief on facilitators, barriers and hesitancy of COVID-19 booster doses in Canada.

Background: Understanding the facilitators, barriers and hesitancy to accepting COVID-19 booster doses is important for encouraging recommended vaccination. This evidence brief summarizes literature on the intention to accept or reject COVID-19 vaccine booster doses and the factors associated with intention/uptake among individuals in Canada. Methods: A database of COVID-19 literature established at the Public Health Agency of Canada was searched for articles referencing vaccination and knowledge, attitudes and behaviours towards COVID-19 boosters. A grey literature search of Canadian governmental and academic institutions was also conducted. Primary research conducted in Canada (n=21) and relevant systematic reviews of the global literature (n=8) were included in this evidence brief. Results: Intentions to get a booster dose in the general population have decreased between 2021-2023, with intentions varying across subpopulations. In Canada and within the global systematic reviews, facilitators, barriers and hesitancy were similar. Older age was the most common factor positively associated with intention/uptake of a booster, and the most common motivators were government/healthcare provider recommendations and helping to protect others. The main reasons for hesitancy were concerns about vaccine side effects and a lack of belief in the vaccine's efficacy. Conclusion: Intentions to get a booster dose have decreased in Canada. Understanding the reasons for vaccine hesitancy and motivators for obtaining a booster can help guide future public health COVID-19 booster vaccination programs.

An evaluation of the preprints produced at the beginning of the 2022 mpox public health emergency.

BACKGROUND: Preprints are scientific articles that have not undergone the peer-review process. They allow the latest evidence to be rapidly shared, however it is unclear whether they can be confidently used for decision-making during a public health emergency. This study aimed to compare the data and quality of preprints released during the first four months of the 2022 mpox outbreak to their published versions. METHODS: Eligible preprints (n = 76) posted between May to August 2022 were identified through an established mpox literature database and followed to July 2024 for changes in publication status. Quality of preprints and published studies was assessed by two independent reviewers to evaluate changes in quality, using validated tools that were available for the study design (n = 33). Tools included the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale; Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2); and JBI Critical Appraisal Checklists. The questions in each tool led to an overall quality assessment of high quality (no concerns with study design, conduct, and/or analysis), moderate quality (minor concerns) or low quality (several concerns). Changes in data (e.g. methods, outcomes, results) for preprint-published pairs (n = 60) were assessed by one reviewer and verified by a second. RESULTS: Preprints and published versions that could be evaluated for quality (n = 25 pairs) were mostly assessed as low quality. Minimal to no change in quality from preprint to published was identified: all observational studies (10/10), most case series (6/7) and all surveillance data analyses (3/3) had no change in overall quality, while some diagnostic test accuracy studies (3/5) improved or worsened their quality assessment scores. Among all pairs (n = 60), outcomes were often added in the published version (58%) and less commonly removed (18%). Numerical results changed from preprint to published in 53% of studies, however most of these studies (22/32) had changes that were minor and did not impact main conclusions of the study. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests the minimal changes in quality, results and main conclusions from preprint to published versions supports the use of preprints, and the use of the same critical evaluation tools on preprints as applied to published studies, in decision-making during a public health emergency.

Controversies in the management of community-acquired pneumonia in adults.

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common infectious syndrome in Australia and a leading global cause of morbidity and mortality. It drives a significant amount of antimicrobial prescribing in Australia. Accurate assessment and stratification of CAP severity is important. However, adequate evaluation is challenging and controversy remains about the optimal method. Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most commonly identified bacterial pathogen causing CAP. As such, oral amoxicillin monotherapy is the mainstay of empirical therapy for low-severity CAP. The need to start empirical therapy for pathogens such as Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Legionella species in low-severity CAP remains controversial; evaluating the causative pathogen on clinical grounds alone is difficult. Oral antibiotics recommended for CAP (e.g. amoxicillin, doxycycline) have excellent bioavailability and may be used instead of intravenous therapy in some hospitalised patients. A duration of 5 days of antibiotic therapy is recommended in clinical practice guidelines for patients with uncomplicated CAP who meet stability criteria at follow-up.

A scoping review of human pathogens detected in untreated human wastewater and sludge.

Wastewater monitoring is an approach to identify the presence or abundance of pathogens within a population. The objective of this scoping review (ScR) was to identify and characterize research on human pathogens and antimicrobial resistance detected in untreated human wastewater and sludge. A search was conducted up to March 2023 and standard ScR methodology was followed. This ScR included 1,722 articles, of which 56.5% were published after the emergence of COVID-19. Viruses and bacteria were commonly investigated, while research on protozoa, helminths, and fungi was infrequent. Articles prior to 2019 were dominated by research on pathogens transmitted through fecal-oral or waterborne pathways, whereas more recent articles have explored the detection of pathogens transmitted through other pathways such as respiratory and vector-borne. There was variation in sampling, samples, and sample processing across studies. The current evidence suggests that wastewater monitoring could be applied to a range of pathogens as a public health tool to detect an emerging pathogen and understand the burden and spread of disease to inform decision-making. Further development and refinement of the methods to identify and interpret wastewater signals for different prioritized pathogens are needed to develop standards on when, why, and how to monitor effectively.

Relationships between water quality and mosquito presence and abundance: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are emerging in response to climate and land use changes. As mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) habitat selection is often contingent on water availability for egg and larval development, studies have recognized water quality also influences larval habitats. However, underlying species-, genera-, and mosquito level preferences for water quality conditions are varied. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify, characterize, appraise, and synthesize available global data on the relationships between water quality and mosquito presence and abundance (MPA); with the goal to further our understanding of the geographic expansion of MBD risks. A systematic review was conducted to identify studies investigating the relationships between water quality properties and MPA. Where appropriate, random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to provide pooled estimates for the association between the most reported water quality properties and MPA. The most reported water quality parameters were pH (87%), nitrogen concentrations (56%), turbidity (56%), electrical conductivity (54%), dissolved oxygen (43%), phosphorus concentrations (30%), and alkalinity (10%). Overall, pH (P = 0.05), turbidity (P < 0.0001), electrical conductivity (P = 0.005), dissolved oxygen (P < 0.0001), nitrogen (P < 0.0001), and phosphorus (P < 0.0001) showed significantly positive pooled correlations with MPA, while alkalinity showed a nonsignificant null pooled correlation (P = 0.85). We observed high heterogeneity in most meta-analyses, and climate zonation was shown to influence the pooled estimates. Linkages between MPA and water quality properties will enhance our capacity to predict MBD risks under changing environmental and land use changes.

A systematic review of the evidence on the associations and safety of COVID-19 vaccination and post COVID-19 condition.

Post COVID-19 condition (PCC) refers to persistent or recurring symptoms (>8 weeks) occurring ≤12 weeks following acute COVID-19. The objective of this systematic review was to assess the evidence on the risk of PCC with vaccination before or after COVID-19 or after developing PCC, and the safety of vaccination among those already experiencing PCC. A search was conducted up to 13 December 2022 and standard systematic review methodology was followed. Thirty-one observational studies were included. There is moderate confidence that two doses of vaccine given pre-infection reduced the odds of PCC (pooled OR (pOR) 0.67, 95% CI 0.60-0.74, I2 = 59.9%), but low confidence that one dose may not reduce the odds (pOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.31#x2013;1.31, I2 = 99.2%), and the evidence is very uncertain about the effect of three doses (pOR 0.45, 95% CI 0.10#x2013;1.99, I2 = 30.9%). One of three studies suggested vaccination shortly after COVID-19 may offer additional protection from developing PCC compared to unvaccinated individuals, but this evidence was very uncertain. For those with PCC, vaccination was not associated with worsening PCC symptoms (10 studies) and appears safe (3 studies), but it is unclear if vaccination may change established PCC symptoms.

COVID-19 literature surveillance-A framework to manage the literature and support evidence-based decision-making on a rapidly evolving public health topic.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a rapid surge of literature on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and the wider impacts of the pandemic. Research on COVID-19 has been produced at an unprecedented rate, and the ability to stay on top of the most relevant evidence is top priority for clinicians, researchers, public health professionals and policymakers. This article presents a knowledge synthesis methodology developed and used by the Public Health Agency of Canada for managing and maintaining a literature surveillance system to identify, characterize, categorize and disseminate COVID-19 evidence daily. Methods: The Daily Scan of COVID-19 Literature project comprised a systematic process involving four main steps: literature search; screening for relevance; classification and summarization of studies; and disseminating a daily report. Results: As of the end of March 2022 there were approximately 300,000 COVID-19 and pandemic-related citations in the COVID-19 database, of which 50%-60% were primary research. Each day, a report of all new COVID-19 citations, literature highlights and a link to the updated database was generated and sent to a mailing list of over 200 recipients including federal, provincial and local public health agencies and academic institutions. Conclusion: This central repository of COVID-19 literature was maintained in real time to aid in accelerated evidence synthesis activities and support evidence-based decision-making during the pandemic response in Canada. This systematic process can be applied to future rapidly evolving public health topics that require the continuous evaluation and dissemination of evidence.

Impact of a dietitian in general practice: paediatric food allergy.

BACKGROUND: Food allergy in infants and young children places a significant burden on primary care. This study evaluated a dietetic-led paediatric food allergy service, which attempts to provide more rapid access to the dietitian and reduce the need for general practitioner (GP) and secondary care appointments. METHODS: Two community dietetic services for children referred with food allergy were compared. The first was dietetic-led care where dietitians train community children's nurses to recognise potential cases of food allergy, undertake basic diagnostic assessment and subsequently refer to the dietitian. The other was a more traditional dietetic community service where patients were referred predominantly by the GP or secondary care. RESULTS: In dietetic-led care 86 patients were seen, compared to 96 in dietetic community care. Dietetic-led care received fewer referrals from the GP, 36% versus 67% (p < 0.001); GP appointments for allergy-related conditions prior to dietetic referral were lower, 3 versus 6 visits (p = 0.001); and input from secondary care was also lower, 8 versus 25 patients (p = 0.002) compared with dietetic community care. Children referred to dietetic-led care were younger, 78% <6 months versus 40% (p < 0.001) in dietetic community care. CONCLUSIONS: Dietetic-led care describes a model that has the potential to reduce GP and secondary care appointments, identify patients more quickly and reduce the time to receive dietetic input, thereby resolving symptoms more quickly and reducing prescribed medications. This model demonstrates the importance of integrated care and multidisciplinary working, offering a solution to reducing GP workload while maintaining or improving patient care.

Decision analysis support for evaluating transmission risk of COVID-19 in places where people gather.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented an unprecedented public health challenge. Prior to vaccination, non-pharmaceutical interventions, including closures, were necessary to help control the epidemic. With the arrival of variants of concern and insufficient population vaccination coverage, ongoing evaluation of transmission risk in settings and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessary to help control the epidemic. This study aimed to produce a framework for evaluating transmission risk in settings where individuals gather and inform decision-making. METHODS: A multi-criteria decision analysis process was used to structure the framework. Fifteen criteria were identified as important to consider for COVID-19 transmission risk based on the literature. This list was ranked by experts and then categorized. The analysis was structured by the consensus list of criteria and relative positioning of each criteria within the list to produce sets of factors to consider when assessing transmission risk at gatherings. RESULTS: Fifteen experts from across Canada participated in ranking the criteria. Strong consensus was found on the relative importance of criteria and this relative consensus was used to create four categories: critical (3 criteria); important (6 criteria); good to consider (5 criteria); and if time permits (1 criterion). CONCLUSION: The resulting consensus list and categories constitutes a set of important elements that can be applied to any setting as an objective and transparent framework to assess transmission risk in the venue. In conjunction with further consideration of the local epidemiology of COVID-19, an overall risk of transmission assessment can be established and uniformly implemented.

Rapid review of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in paediatrics: What we know one year later.

BACKGROUND: : Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging condition that was first identified in paediatrics at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The condition is also known as pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (PIMS-TS or PIMS), and multiple definitions have been established for this condition that share overlapping features with Kawasaki Disease and toxic shock syndrome. METHODS: : A review was conducted to identify literature describing the epidemiology of MIS-C, published up until March 9, 2021. A database established at the Public Health Agency of Canada with COVID-19 literature was searched for articles referencing MIS-C, PIMS or Kawasaki Disease in relation to COVID-19. RESULTS: : A total of 195 out of 988 articles were included in the review. The median age of MIS-C patients was between seven and 10 years of age, although children of all ages (and adults) can be affected. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children disproportionately affected males (58% patients), and Black and Hispanic children seem to be at an elevated risk for developing MIS-C. Roughly 62% of MIS-C patients required admission to an intensive care unit, with one in five patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Between 0% and 2% of MIS-C patients died, depending on the population and available interventions. CONCLUSION: : Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children can affect children of all ages. A significant proportion of patients required intensive care unit and mechanical ventilation and 0%-2% of cases resulted in fatalities. More evidence is needed on the role of race, ethnicity and comorbidities in the development of MIS-C.

Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.

Perceptions of Health Care, Information, and Social Support Among Women Affected by Zika Virus Infection During Pregnancy in Two U.S. States.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the information needs and experiences with health care and social support among women with confirmed or possible Zika virus infection during pregnancy. METHODS: We conducted in-depth interviews with 18 women whose pregnancies were part of surveillance efforts in two states, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Using a semi-structured guide available in English and Spanish, we asked women about their experiences. We conducted a thematic analysis using NVivo 11. RESULTS: Only one participant reported that her infant had been diagnosed with health problems related to congenital Zika virus infection. Most participants said they received the information they needed about Zika virus and their infant's medical care. Most participants primarily spoke Spanish and described satisfactory experiences communicating with providers, either using a mix of Spanish and English or using an interpreter. Coordination of care and clear communication among different providers was a key factor in participants' satisfaction with health care received. Participants noted high levels of stress around the uncertainty associated with Zika virus exposure during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Although participants reported satisfaction with care, they also reported high levels of anxiety and challenges coping with the uncertainties along their journeys. Study findings support the need for guidance for providers about how to talk with women about Zika virus infection during pregnancy and specifically how to discuss the uncertainties about diagnosis and outcomes.

Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults: a rapid review.

Multisystem inflammatory disease in children (MIS-C) is one of the severe presentations of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that has been described in the literature since the beginning of the pandemic. Although MIS-C refers to children, cases with similar clinical characteristics have been recently described in adults. A description of the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of multisystem inflammatory disease in adults (MIS-A) is a starting point for better knowledge and understanding of this emerging disease. We identified nine case reports of MIS-A in the literature, five from the United States, two from France and two from the United Kingdom. The case descriptions revealed similarities in clinical features, including occurrence during post-acute disease phase, fever, digestive symptoms, cardiac involvement and elevated inflammatory markers. All the patients were hospitalized, three required admission to the intensive care unit and one died. The most common treatments were intravenous immunoglobulin, prednisolone and aspirin. These findings suggest that MIS-A is a severe complication of COVID-19 disease that can lead to death. Further studies to improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of MIS-A, which will help improve treatment decisions and prevent sequelae or death.

Modelling the impact of shutdowns on resurging SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Shutdowns are enacted when alternative public health measures are insufficient to control the epidemic and the population is largely susceptible. An age-stratified agent-based model was developed to explore the impact of shutdowns to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada under the assumption that current efforts to control the epidemic remains insufficient and in the absence of a vaccine. METHODS: We estimated the current levels of interventions in Canada to generate a baseline scenario from 7 February to 7 September 2020. Four aspects of shutdowns were explored in scenarios that ran from 8 September 2020 to 7 January 2022, these included the impact of how quickly shutdowns are implemented, the duration of shutdowns, the minimum break (delays) between shutdowns and the types of sectors to shutdown. Comparisons among scenarios were made using cases, hospitalizations, deaths and shutdown days during the 700-day model runs. RESULTS: We found a negative relationship between reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the number of shutdown days. However, we also found that for shutdowns to be optimally effective, they need to be implemented fast with minimal delay, initiated when community transmission is low, sustained for an adequate period and be stringent and target multiple sectors, particularly those driving transmission. By applying shutdowns in this manner, the total number of shutdown days could be reduced compared to delaying the shutdowns until further into the epidemic when transmission is higher and/or implementing short insufficient shutdowns that would require frequent re-implementation. This paper contrasts a range of shutdown strategies and trade-offs between health outcomes and economic metrics that need to be considered within the local context. INTERPRETATION: Given the immense socioeconomic impact of shutdowns, they should be avoided where possible and used only when other public health measures are insufficient to control the epidemic. If used, the time it buys to delay the epidemic should be used to enhance other equally effective, but less disruptive, public health measures.

Serum antibody response in COVID-19-recovered patients who retested positive.

BACKGROUND: Research studies comparing antibody response from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases that retested positive (RP) using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and those who did not retest positive (NRP) were used to investigate a possible relationship between antibody response and retesting status. METHODS: Seven data bases were searched. Research criteria included cohort and case-control studies, carried out worldwide and published before September 9, 2020, that compared the serum antibody levels of hospitalized COVID-19 cases that RP after discharge to those that did NRP. RESULTS: There is some evidence that immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody levels in RP cases were lower compared with NRP cases. The hypothesis of incomplete clearance aligns with these findings. The possibility of false negative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR test results during viral clearance is also plausible, as concentration of the viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) in nasopharyngeal and fecal swabs fluctuate below the limits of RT-PCR detection during virus clearance. The probability of reinfection was less likely to be the cause of retesting positive because of the low risk of exposure where cases observed a 14 day-quarantine after discharge. CONCLUSION: More studies are needed to better explain the immune response of recovered COVID-19 cases retesting positive after discharge.

A qualitative program evaluation of the Publicly Available International Foodborne Outbreak Database.

BACKGROUND: The Publicly Available International Foodborne Outbreak Database (PAIFOD) is a regularly updated repository that contains international outbreak data collected from multiple surveillance systems and sources. As of February 2020, the database contained more than 13,000 entries spanning over 20 years. PAIFOD is the only known database that captures international foodborne outbreak data. OBJECTIVE: To explore user perceptions and identify potential directions for PAIFOD and make recommendations for databases with food safety information. METHODS: Between January and March 2020, 16 semistructured telephone interviews were conducted with 24 previous, current and potential PAIFOD users. Interviewees were asked about their knowledge of and experience of using PAIFOD as well as about its strengths and limitations and recommendations for the database. An inductive thematic analysis approach was used to analyze qualitative data and generate themes. RESULTS: Four main themes were generated based on the 24 interviewees' accounts of their experience with and recommendations for PAIFOD: participants viewed PAIFOD as a useful tool; they weren't familiar with its contents or purpose; they stated it should become an open-access platform or linked with another information-sharing initiative; and they considered that PAIFOD had the potential to enhance the Agency's reputation by becoming widely recognized and used. CONCLUSION: This work, along with the ever-changing landscape of foodborne surveillance, supports the need to ensure that PAIFOD is updated to meet the modern-day demands of food safety experts.

Tick exposures and alpha-gal syndrome: A systematic review of the evidence.

Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) refers to a delayed allergic reaction to galactose-α-1,3-galactose (α-Gal) that occurs following the consumption of mammalian meat or exposure to other animal-based foods and products. Increasing evidence suggests that bites from certain tick species can lead to AGS through sensitization of a person's α-Gal specific IgE levels. This systematic review aimed to summarize the published evidence on this topic to understand post-tick exposure AGS epidemiology and health outcomes. A structured search for literature in eight bibliographic databases was conducted in January, 2020. Grey literature and verification searches were also performed. The exposure of interest was tick bites, and the outcome of interest was AGS. All primary research study designs were eligible for inclusion. References were screened for relevance, and data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment were conducted on relevant studies by two independent reviewers. Data were descriptively and narratively summarized. Of 1390 references screened, 102 relevant articles (103 unique studies) were identified (published from 2009 to 2020). Most studies (76.7 %) were case report or series. These 79 studies reported on 236 post-tick exposure AGS cases from 20 different countries, mostly the United States (33.5 %), Spain (19.5 %), Sweden (18.6 %), and France (12.7 %). The mean case age was 51.3 (SD = 16.7, range 5-85, n = 229), while 68.1 % were male (n = 226). The most commonly reported symptom was urticaria (71.2 %); 51.7 % of cases reported anaphylaxis. Twenty-one observational studies were reported, mostly (95.2 %) among clinical allergy patients. The proportion of AGS cases that recalled tick bites was highly variable across these studies. Three challenge studies evaluating tick exposures and α-Gal levels in α-Gal deficient mice were identified. The existing evidence suggests tick bites lead to α-Gal-specific IgE sensitization, which can cause AGS, but further research is needed to clarify if AGS is only attributable to certain tick species and whether other vectors may trigger AGS. Additional research is needed on risk factors for AGS development, evaluation of diagnostic immunoassays, and the epidemiology and distribution of AGS in different populations. Climate change will likely lead to future cases of AGS in new regions worldwide due to the predicted alteration of suitable tick habitats.

Test-guided dietary management of eczema in children: A randomized controlled feasibility trial (TEST).

BACKGROUND: Parents commonly ask about food allergy tests, to find a cause for their child's eczema, yet the value of routine testing is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a clinical trial comparing test-guided dietary advice versus usual care, for the management of eczema, is feasible. METHODS: Children (>3 months and <5 years) with mild-to-severe eczema, recruited via primary care, were individually randomized (1:1) to intervention or usual care. Intervention participants underwent structured allergy history and skin prick tests (SPT) with dietary advice for cow's milk, hen's egg, wheat, peanut, cashew and codfish. All participants were followed up for 24 weeks. A sample of doctors and parents was interviewed. Registration ISRCTN15397185. RESULTS: From 1059 invitation letters sent to carers of potentially eligible children, 84 were randomized (42 per group) with mean age of 32.4 months (SD 13.9) and POEM of 8.7 (4.8). Of the 42, 6 (14%) intervention participants were advised to exclude one or more foods, most commonly egg, peanut or milk. By participant, 1/6 had an oral food challenge (negative); 3/6 were told to exclude until review in allergy clinic; and 6/6 advised a home dietary trial (exclusion and reintroduction of food over 4-6 weeks) - with 1/6 partially completing it. Participant retention (four withdrawals) and data completeness (74%-100%) were acceptable and contamination low (two usual care participants had allergy tests). There were three minor SPT-related adverse events. During follow-up, 12 intervention and 8 usual care participants had minor, unrelated adverse events plus one unrelated hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to recruit, randomize and retain children with eczema from primary care into a trial of food allergy screening and to collect the outcomes of interest. Changes to recruitment and inclusion criteria are needed in a definitive trial, to ensure inclusion of younger children from more diverse backgrounds.

Explaining the Black-White Disparity in Preterm Birth: A Consensus Statement From a Multi-Disciplinary Scientific Work Group Convened by the March of Dimes.

In 2017-2019, the March of Dimes convened a workgroup with biomedical, clinical, and epidemiologic expertise to review knowledge of the causes of the persistent Black-White disparity in preterm birth (PTB). Multiple databases were searched to identify hypothesized causes examined in peer-reviewed literature, 33 hypothesized causes were reviewed for whether they plausibly affect PTB and either occur more/less frequently and/or have a larger/smaller effect size among Black women vs. White women. While definitive proof is lacking for most potential causes, most are biologically plausible. No single downstream or midstream factor explains the disparity or its social patterning, however, many likely play limited roles, e.g., while genetic factors likely contribute to PTB, they explain at most a small fraction of the disparity. Research links most hypothesized midstream causes, including socioeconomic factors and stress, with the disparity through their influence on the hypothesized downstream factors. Socioeconomic factors alone cannot explain the disparity's social patterning. Chronic stress could affect PTB through neuroendocrine and immune mechanisms leading to inflammation and immune dysfunction, stress could alter a woman's microbiota, immune response to infection, chronic disease risks, and behaviors, and trigger epigenetic changes influencing PTB risk. As an upstream factor, racism in multiple forms has repeatedly been linked with the plausible midstream/downstream factors, including socioeconomic disadvantage, stress, and toxic exposures. Racism is the only factor identified that directly or indirectly could explain the racial disparities in the plausible midstream/downstream causes and the observed social patterning. Historical and contemporary systemic racism can explain the racial disparities in socioeconomic opportunities that differentially expose African Americans to lifelong financial stress and associated health-harming conditions. Segregation places Black women in stressful surroundings and exposes them to environmental hazards. Race-based discriminatory treatment is a pervasive stressor for Black women of all socioeconomic levels, considering both incidents and the constant vigilance needed to prepare oneself for potential incidents. Racism is a highly plausible, major upstream contributor to the Black-White disparity in PTB through multiple pathways and biological mechanisms. While much is unknown, existing knowledge and core values (equity, justice) support addressing racism in efforts to eliminate the racial disparity in PTB.