Current issues in dose-finding designs: A response to the US Food and Drug Adminstrations's Oncology Center of Excellence Project Optimus.

With the advent of targeted agents and immunological therapies, the medical research community has become increasingly aware that conventional methods for determining the best dose or schedule of a new agent are inadequate. It has been well established that conventional phase I designs cannot reliably identify safe and effective doses. This problem applies, generally, for cytotoxic agents, radiation therapy, targeted agents, and immunotherapies. To address this, the US Food and Drug Administration's Oncology Center of Excellence initiated Project Optimus, with the goal "to reform the dose optimization and dose selection paradigm in oncology drug development." As a response to Project Optimus, the articles in this special issue of Clinical Trials review recent advances in methods for choosing the dose or schedule of a new agent with an overall objective of informing clinical trialists of these innovative designs. This introductory article briefly reviews problems with conventional methods, the regulatory changes that encourage better dose optimization designs, and provides brief summaries of the articles that follow in this special issue.

Applications of the partial-order continual reassessment method in the early development of treatment combinations.

Combination therapy is increasingly being explored as a promising approach for improving cancer treatment outcomes. However, identifying effective dose combinations in early oncology drug development is challenging due to limited sample sizes in early-phase clinical trials. This task becomes even more complex when multiple agents are being escalated simultaneously, potentially leading to a loss of monotonic toxicity order with respect to the dose. Traditional single-agent trial designs are insufficient for this multi-dimensional problem, necessitating the development and implementation of dose-finding methods specifically designed for drug combinations. While, in practice, approaches to this problem have focused on preselecting combinations with a known toxicity order and applying single-agent designs, this limits the number of combinations considered and may miss promising dose combinations. In recent years, several novel designs have been proposed for exploring partially ordered drug combination spaces with the goal of identifying a maximum tolerated dose combination, based on safety, or an optimal dose combination, based on toxicity and efficacy. However, their implementation in clinical practice remains limited. In this article, we describe the application of the partial order continual reassessment method and its extensions for combination therapies in early-phase clinical trials. We present completed trials that use safety endpoints to identify maximum tolerated dose combinations and adaptively use both safety and efficacy endpoints to determine optimal treatment strategies. We discuss the effectiveness of the partial-order continual reassessment method and its extensions in identifying optimal treatment strategies and provide our experience with executing these novel adaptive designs in practice. By utilizing innovative dose-finding methods, researchers and clinicians can more effectively navigate the challenges of combination therapy development, ultimately improving patient outcomes in the treatment of cancer.

A Pilot Study of the Combination of Entinostat with Capecitabine in Advanced Breast Cancer.

Background: Breast cancer has an unacceptably high recurrence rate when any residual disease is found following neoadjuvant treatment of high-risk disease. Based on clinical data suggesting an adjuvant role for epigenetic modifying agents in breast cancer and preclinical data suggesting synergistic activity of entinostat combined with capecitabine, we conducted a phase I, open-label study of these agents in metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Both agents have published doses for use in combination therapy, but the agents had not previously been combined with each other in a human trial. Methods: A multisite phase I dose escalation study was performed at two academic centers. Patients with pretreated, HER2-negative MBC, and measurable disease were enrolled. Dual dose escalation was performed via a Bayesian partial order continual assessment method. Dose levels ranged from entinostat 3 mg to 5 mg and capecitabine 800 mg/m2 to 1000 mg/m2. Results: Thirteen patients with MBC and a median of 4 lines of prior therapy were enrolled across four dose level combinations. The most common toxicities were neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and palmar-plantar dysesthesia, which were expected toxicities. No new safety signals were observed. One dose-limiting toxicity was observed, which did not exceed a prespecified toxicity rate of 25%. The median treatment duration was 2.37 months. No partial nor complete responses were observed. The study was halted early prior to entering an expansion phase, due to drug supply limitations. Conclusion: The tested dosing combinations of entinostat and capecitabine are likely safe in heavily pretreated metastatic breast cancer. This study's clinical investigation of entinostat in breast cancer was halted, but drug development of this agent continues outside the US. There remains a need for postoperative adjuvant drug therapy for the subpopulation of breast cancer patients with high-risk residual cancer after curative therapy. This trial is registered with NCT03473639.

Venetoclax with decitabine or azacitidine in relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia.

Relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with poor outcomes and resistance to therapy. The addition of venetoclax, a BCL-2 antagonist, to lower-intensity therapies results in improved survival in the first-line setting compared to monotherapy with a hypomethylating agent or low-dose cytarabine. Despite this, much remains unknown about the performance of venetoclax with a hypomethylating agent following the first-line setting. Additionally, while the ELN 2022 guidelines appear to improve the prognostication of AML, clarification is needed to determine how the revision applies to lower-intensity strategies. To investigate this, we retrospectively analyzed the performance of venetoclax with decitabine or azacitidine in relapsed or refractory AML under the ELN 2022 guidelines. We demonstrated that the ELN 2022 revision is not optimized for lower-intensity venetoclax-based strategies. To refine the prognostication schema, we showed significantly improved response and survival benefits for patients with mutated NPM1 and IDH. Relatively, patients with mutated NRAS, KRAS, and FLT3-ITD were associated with inferior response and survival. Furthermore, there is an unmet clinical need for tools to improve the selection of lower-intensity therapy candidates with borderline functional status. Using an incremental survival computation method, we discovered that a CCI score threshold of 5 distinguishes patients at an elevated risk of death. Together, these novel findings highlight areas of refinement to improve survival in relapsed or refractory AML.

Dose-finding based on feasibility and late-onset toxicity in adoptive cell therapy trials.

Cell therapies comprise one of the most important advances in oncology. One of the biggest challenges in the early development of cell therapies is to recommend safe and feasible doses to carry forward to middle development. The treatment involves extracting cells from a patient, expanding the cells and infusing the cells back into the patient. Each dose level being studied is defined by the number of cells infused into the trial participant. The manufacturing process may not generate enough cells for a given patient to receive their assigned dose level, making it infeasible to administer their intended dose. The primary design challenge is to efficiently use accumulated data from participants treated away from their assigned dose to efficiently allocate future trial participants and recommend a feasible maximum tolerated dose (FMTD) at the study conclusion. Currently, there are few available options for designing and implementing Phase I trials of cell therapies that can incorporate a dose feasibility endpoint. Moreover, the application of these designs is limited to a traditional dose-finding framework, where the dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) endpoint is observed in early cycles of therapy. This paper presents a novel phase I trial design for adoptive cell therapy that simultaneously accounts for dose feasibility and late-onset toxicities. We apply our design to a phase I dose-escalation trial of Rituximab-based bispecific activated T-cells combined with a fixed dose of Nivolumab. Our simulation results demonstrate that our proposed method can reduce trial duration without significantly hindering trial accuracy.

Local continual reassessment methods for dose finding and optimization in drug-combination trials.

Due to the limited sample size and large dose exploration space, obtaining a desirable dose combination is a challenging task in the early development of combination treatments for cancer patients. Most existing designs for optimizing the dose combination are model-based, requiring significant efforts to elicit parameters or prior distributions. Model-based designs also rely on intensive model calibration and may yield unstable performance in the case of model misspecification or sparse data. We propose to employ local, underparameterized models for dose exploration to reduce the hurdle of model calibration and enhance the design robustness. Building upon the framework of the partial ordering continual reassessment method, we develop local data-based continual reassessment method designs for identifying the maximum tolerated dose combination, using toxicity only, and the optimal biological dose combination, using both toxicity and efficacy, respectively. The local data-based continual reassessment method designs only model the local data from neighboring dose combinations. Therefore, they are flexible in estimating the local space and circumventing unstable characterization of the entire dose-exploration surface. Our simulation studies show that our approach has competitive performance compared to widely used methods for finding maximum tolerated dose combination, and it has advantages over existing model-based methods for optimizing optimal biological dose combination.

Concurrent dose-finding of a novel cancer drug with and without a second agent.

Introduction: More complex research questions are being posed in early-phase oncology clinical trials, necessitating design strategies tailored to contemporary study objectives. This paper describes the proposed design of a Phase I trial concurrently evaluating the safety of a hematopoietic progenitor kinase-1 inhibitor (Agent A) as a single agent and in combination with an anti-PD-1 agent in patients with advanced malignancies. The study's primary objective was to concurrently determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of Agent A with and without anti-PD-1 therapy among seven possible study dose levels. Methods: Our solution to this challenge was to apply a continual reassessment method shift model to meet the research objectives of the study. Results: The application of this method is described herein, and a simulation study of the design's operating characteristics is conducted. This work was developed through collaboration and mentoring between the authors at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual AACR/ASCO Methods in Clinical Cancer Research Workshop. Conclusions: The aim of this manuscript is to highlight examples of novel design applications as a means of augmenting the implementation of innovative designs in the future and to demonstrate the flexibility of adaptive designs in satisfying modern design conditions. Although the design is presented using an investigation of Agent A with and without anti-PD-1 therapy as an illustrative example, the approach described is not specific to these agents and could be applied to other concurrent monotherapy and combination therapy studies with well-defined binary safety endpoints.

Venetoclax with decitabine or azacitidine in the first-line treatment of acute myeloid leukemia.

Treatment paradigms for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) have evolved at a rapid pace in recent years. The combination of venetoclax with a hypomethylating agent prolonged survival in clinical trials when compared to hypomethylating agent monotherapy. However, little is known about the performance of venetoclax-based regimens outside of clinical trials, given conflicting safety and efficacy data. Even less is known about the impact of the hypomethylating agent backbone. In this study, we demonstrate that decitabine-venetoclax is associated with a significantly higher rate of grade three or higher thrombocytopenia, but lower rates of lymphocytopenia compared to azacitidine-venetoclax. There was no difference in response or survival across ELN 2017 cytogenetic risk categories in the overall cohort. Significantly more patients succumb to relapsed or refractory disease than death from any other cause. We demonstrated that a Charlson comorbidity index score threshold of seven identifies exceptionally high-risk patients, providing evidence for clinical use to reduce the risk of early treatment-related mortality. Lastly, we provide evidence that measurable residual disease negativity and an IDH mutation predict a significant survival benefit outside clinical trials. Taken together, these data illuminate the real-world performance of venetoclax and decitabine or azacitidine in the treatment of AML.

Isotonic design for phase I cancer clinical trials with late-onset toxicities.

This article addresses the problem of identifying the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in Phase I dose-finding clinical trials with late-onset toxicities. The main design challenge is how best to adaptively allocate study participants to tolerable doses when the evaluation window for the toxicity endpoint is long relative to the accrual rate of new participants. We propose a new design framework based on order-restricted statistical inference that addresses this challenge in sequential dose assignments. We illustrate the proposed method on real data from a Phase I trial of bortezomib in lymphoma patients and apply it to a Phase I trial of radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients. We conduct extensive simulation studies to compare our design's operating characteristics to existing published methods. Overall, our proposed design demonstrates good performance relative to existing methods in allocating participants at and around the MTD during the study and accurately recommending the MTD at the study conclusion.

Quasi-partial order continual reassessment method: Applying toxicity scores to cancer dose-finding drug combination trials.

The primary endpoint of most dose-finding cancer trials is patient toxicity, and the primary goal is to identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), that is, the highest dose that falls below or within a pre-specified toxicity tolerability threshold. Conventionally, dose-finding methods have utilized a binary toxicity endpoint based on whether or not a patient experiences a dose limiting-toxicity (DLT). Improving upon this, in recent years several methods have been developed for modeling toxicity scores, a novel continuous endpoint designed to more precisely estimate patient toxicity burden. Separately, drug-combination trials have become increasingly prevalent, and due to added complexities regarding estimating 'true' dose ordering and potential for more complex patient toxicity profiles, provide an ideal setting which may benefit from the improved precision of toxicity scores. In this paper, we merge two frameworks based on the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) - the Quasi-CRM and the Partial Order CRM (POCRM) - to propose a novel approach for modeling toxicity scores in a combination-trial setting. We demonstrate that utilizing toxicity scores has the potential to greatly improve correct dose-selection over a variety of trial scenarios. We further present a simple adaptation to the toxicity-score model to control for potential over-dosing issues such that it adheres to the conventional DLT definition and will, at worst, perform equivalently to that of the traditional binary DLT framework. We demonstrate that extending toxicity scores to the combination-trial setting offers potential for improvement over the conventional binary endpoint models.

Evaluating the relationship between vaginal apex "dog ears" and patterns of recurrence in endometrial cancer following adjuvant image guided vaginal cuff brachytherapy.

PURPOSE: The aim of this investigation is to characterize vaginal apex "dog ears" and their association with patterns of treatment failure in patients with endometrial cancer treated with adjuvant high-dose-rate (HDR) single-channel vaginal cuff brachytherapy (VCB). METHODS: A retrospective review of patients treated with HDR VCB from 2012 to 2021 for medically operable endometrial cancer at a single institution was conducted. Dog ears, defined as tissue at the apex extending at least 10 mm from the brachytherapy applicator were identified on CT simulation images. Fisher exact test and a multivariate logistic regression model evaluated the association between factors of interest with treatment failure. Vaginal cuff failure free survival (VCFFS) was calculated from first brachytherapy to vaginal cuff recurrence (VCR). RESULTS: A total of 219 patients were reviewed. In this sample, 57.5% of patients met criteria for having dog ears. In total, 13 patients (5.9%) developed a VCR. There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of VCR between patients with and without dog ears (7.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.56). There was a trend toward increased risk of recurrence with higher grade histology identified in the multivariate logistic regression model (p = 0.085). The estimated 3-year probability of VCFFS was 86%. CONCLUSIONS: Vaginal apex dog ears are prevalent but are not found to statistically increase the risk of VCR after VCB in our single institution experience. However, while local failure remains low in this population, we report an absolute value of over twice as many VCRs in patients with dog ears, indicating that with improved dog ear characterization this may remain a relevant parameter for consideration in treatment planning.

Application of the patient-reported outcomes continual reassessment method to a phase I study of radiotherapy in endometrial cancer.

This article considers the concept of designing Phase I clinical trials using both clinician- and patient-reported outcomes to adaptively allocate study participants to tolerable doses and determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) at the study conclusion. We describe an application of a Bayesian form of the patient-reported outcomes continual reassessment method (PRO-CRMB) in an ongoing Phase I study of adjuvant hypofractionated whole pelvis radiation therapy (WPRT) in endometrial cancer (NCT04458402). The study's primary objective is to determine the MTD per fraction of WPRT, defined by acceptable clinician- and patient-reported DLT rates. We conduct simulation studies of the operating characteristics of the design and compared them to a rule-based approach. We illustrate that the PRO-CRMB makes appropriate dose assignments during the study to give investigators and reviewers an idea of how the method behaves. In simulation studies, the PRO-CRMB demonstrates superior performance to a 5 + 2 stepwise design in terms of recommending target treatment courses and allocating patients to these courses. The design is accompanied by an easy-to-use R shiny web application to simulate operating characteristics at the design stage and sequentially update dose assignments throughout the trial's conduct.

Relationship of dose to vascular target volumes and local failure in pancreatic cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation.

Objective: The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether dose to the vasculature is associated with local control after surgery in patients with borderline resectable (BLR) and resectable pancreatic cancer (PCA) receiving neoadjuvant radiation therapy (RT) and to identify a dose threshold for clinical use. Methods: Patients with BLR and resectable PCA treated with neoadjuvant RT were retrospectively reviewed. During this period, the institutional paradigm shifted from standard fractionation to hypofractionation/stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). A vasculature clinical target volume (Vasc CTV) was contoured for each patient and defined as a 5-mm margin around the superior mesenteric artery (SMA) from its origin to the pancreatic head, the celiac artery from its origin to the level of the trifurcation and any involved vein. The Vasc CTV D95 was normalized to a 2-Gy equivalent dose to determine the optimal dose associated with optimal local failure-free survival (LFFS). Results: Forty-seven patients were included in the analysis. A Vasc CTV D95 of 32.7 Gy was the optimal cutoff for LFFS. Patients with Vasc CTV D95 Equivalent dose in 2 Gy per fraction (EQD2) >32.7 Gy had significantly longer LFFS compared to patients with Vasc CTV D95 EQD2 ≤32.7 Gy at 12 months (91% vs. 51%, respectively) and 24 months (86% vs. 12%, respectively). The median disease-free survival (DFS) for patients with EQD2 >32.7 Gy was 30.4 months compared to 14.0 months in patients with EQD2 ≤32.7 Gy (p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in overall survival (OS) between the two groups. Conclusions: During neoadjuvant treatment, dose to the Vasc CTV is associated with durability of local control (LC) after resection and should be intentionally included in the treatment volume with an EQD2 goal of 31-33 Gy.

Change in parathyroid hormone levels from baseline predicts hypocalcemia following total or completion thyroidectomy.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to identify the strongest predictor of postoperative hypocalcemia following thyroid surgery. METHODS: Study of patients who underwent total/completion thyroidectomy. No patients received postoperative calcium supplementation. Demographic and perioperative data were collected including preoperative baseline parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels, PTH levels at 30 min and 6 h post-excision, and 18 h post-excision calcium levels. RESULTS: Of 124 patients studied, 20.2% developed temporary hypocalcemia (Ca <8.5 mg/dL at 18 h post-excision). In multivariate analyses, absolute PTH levels at 30 min and 6 h post-excision as well as change in PTH from baseline at 30 min and 6 h post-excision were statistically significantly associated with postoperative hypocalcemia. Per 10 units decrease in PTH from baseline at 30 min post-excision, the risk of developing temporary hypocalcemia increases by 17%. CONCLUSION: Absolute PTH levels and change in PTH from baseline at 30 min and 6 h post-excision predict hypocalcemia after total or completion thyroidectomy.

Impact of dose feasibility on the conduct of phase I trials of adoptive cell therapy.

BACKGROUND: /Aims: In early-phase cell therapy trials, each dose level being studied is defined by the number of cells infused into the trial participant. The issue of dose feasibility presents itself when the desired number of cells is not reached in the expansion process. Consequently, dose assignments for some patients may deviate from the planned dose according to the chosen design. Widely used algorithmic designs aren't flexible enough to handle this complication and can lead to the exclusion of safety data from the dose assignment algorithm. This article studies the impact of dose feasibility challenges on the behavior of the 3 + 3 decision rule. METHODS: We conducted a simulation study across six dose-feasibility and dose-toxicity scenarios. Trials are simulated using the 3 + 3 algorithm. We present a novel algorithm for random feasibility curve generation. We used this algorithm to conduct a large-scale simulation study across 100 random scenarios. RESULTS: We found that the 3 + 3 has problematic characteristics due to the exclusion of safety data from the algorithm. Ignoring toxicity data can complicate the allocation of subsequent patients in the trial and can bias the final maximum tolerated dose recommendation for the next phase of drug development. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that excluding safety data from the 3 + 3 algorithm can be detrimental to trial conduct. Furthermore, there are existing methods that are flexible enough to include data that is observed away from the planned dose. We recommend that these methods be used in conducting phase I cell therapy trials.

Dose-finding study of ibrutinib and venetoclax in relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma.

Relapsed Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is often treated with Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BTKi); however, post-BTKi relapse can be challenging. Adding venetoclax (VEN) to ibrutinib (IBR) has shown synergy in preclinical MCL models. Prior MCL studies of the combination show promising efficacy but have conducted limited dose finding. We sought to identify the optimal dosing combination, based on efficacy and toxicity, utilizing a continual reassessment method of 6 combinations of IBR (280 mg, 420 mg, and 560 mg by mouth daily) and VEN (max dose of 200 mg and 400 mg by mouth daily). Eligible participants were not previously exposed to BTKi and not high risk for tumor lysis syndrome (TLS). VEN, initiated first at 100 mg, then at 20 mg by mouth daily after a TLS event, was started prior to adding IBR and ramped-up based on the dose level assigned. Combination treatment continued for six 28-day cycles. Thirty-five participants were enrolled and treated. One TLS event occurred with starting dose of 100 mg VEN; no TLS was seen with 20 mg. The optimal dosing combination was considered to be VEN 200 mg and IBR 420 mg with an overall response rate (ORR) of 93.8% (95% CI: 73.6% to 99.7%) and DLT incidence of 6.2% (95% CI: 0.3% to 26.4%). ORR for all arms was 82.3% (28/34; 95% CI: 65.5% to 93.2%) with a complete response (CR) rate of 42.4% (14/33; 95% CI: 25.5% to 60.8%). A participant was not allocated to IBR 560 mg and VEN 400 mg. ORR benefit was not seen with higher dosing combinations and toxicity was higher; a comparison made within the limitations of small cohorts. Resistance was seen in nearly all arms. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov #NCT02419560.

SEMIPARAMETRIC DOSE FINDING METHODS FOR PARTIALLY ORDERED DRUG COMBINATIONS.

We investigate a statistical framework for Phase I clinical trials that test the safety of two or more agents in combination. For such studies, the traditional assumption of a simple monotonic relation between dose and the probability of an adverse event no longer holds. Nonetheless, the dose toxicity (adverse event) relationship will obey an assumption of partial ordering in that there will be pairs of combinations for which the ordering of the toxicity probabilities is known. Some authors have considered how to best estimate the maximum tolerated dose (a dose providing a rate of toxicity as close as possible to some target rate) in this setting. A related, and equally interesting, problem is to partition the 2-dimensional dose space into two sub-regions: doses with probabilities of toxicity lower and greater than the target. We carry out a detailed investigation of this problem. The theoretical framework for this is the recently presented semiparametric dose finding method. This results in a number of proposals one of which can be viewed as an extension of the Product of Independent beta Priors Escalation method (PIPE). We derive useful asymptotic properties which also apply to the PIPE method when seen as a special case of the more general method given here. Simulation studies provide added confidence concerning the good behaviour of the operating characteristics.