Plant diversity darkspots for global collection priorities.

More than 15% of all vascular plant species may remain scientifically undescribed, and many of the > 350 000 described species have no or few geographic records documenting their distribution. Identifying and understanding taxonomic and geographic knowledge shortfalls is key to prioritising future collection and conservation efforts. Using extensive data for 343 523 vascular plant species and time-to-event analyses, we conducted multiple tests related to plant taxonomic and geographic data shortfalls, and identified 33 global diversity darkspots (those 'botanical countries' predicted to contain most undescribed and not yet recorded species). We defined priority regions for future collection according to several socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Most plant diversity darkspots are found within global biodiversity hotspots, with the exception of New Guinea. We identify Colombia, Myanmar, New Guinea, Peru, Philippines and Turkey as global collection priorities under all environmental and socio-economic conditions considered. Our study provides a flexible framework to help accelerate the documentation of global plant diversity for the implementation of conservation actions. As digitisation of the world's herbaria progresses, collection and conservation priorities may soon be identifiable at finer scales.

An assessment of methods to combine evolutionary history and conservation: A case study in the Brazilian campo rupestre.

Premise: Conservation policies typically focus on biodiversity hotspots. An alternative approach involves analyzing the evolutionary history of lineages in geographic areas along with their threat levels to guide conservation efforts. Mountains exhibit high levels of plant species richness and micro-endemism, and biogeographic studies commonly point to recent and rapid evolutionary radiations in these areas. Using a nearly endemic clade of legumes, our study evaluates conservation prioritization approaches in the campo rupestre, a Neotropical ecosystem associated with mountaintops that is located between two biodiversity hotspots. Methods: We compared the EDGE and EDGE2 metrics, which combine the evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risk of a species in a single value. These metrics are compared with traditional metrics used to assess conservation priority, such as phylogenetic diversity. Results: The EDGE values reported are lower than those of other studies using this metric, mostly due to the prevalence of threatened species with short phylogenetic branch lengths (low values of evolutionary distinctiveness). Certain areas of campo rupestre with relatively high phylogenetic diversity and EDGE values do not correspond to areas with high species richness, agreeing with previous studies on biodiversity hotspots. Discussion: Our study highlights the necessity of conservation of the campo rupestres as well as advantages and disadvantages of using EDGE, EDGE2, and phylogenetic diversity for appropriate selection of conservation areas with rapid evolutionary radiations. The selection of the metrics will depend primarily on the life history of the focus group and the data availability, as well as the conservation approach.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation.

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Re-evaluating the importance of threatened species in maintaining global phytoregions.

Anthropogenic introductions are known to be changing the structure of global phytogeographical regions (phytoregions), but previous studies have been limited by incomplete or biased data sets that are likely to underestimate the importance of threatened species. In this work, we analyse a comprehensive data set of all known species and their occurrences (at botanical country resolution) to quantify the impact of potential future extinction scenarios. We used Infomap, a network-based community detection algorithm, to generate phytoregional delineations for six species-distribution scenarios (native, introduced and extinctions of species that are either documented as threatened or likely to be threatened, as well as combinations thereof). We compared the numbers and sizes of phytoregions to characterise the amount and spatial distribution of changes in global phytoregions under each scenario. Extinctions of species that are predicted to be threatened had a greater homogenising effect on phytoregions than introductions, and there was some evidence that introductions may even mitigate the homogenisation caused by extinctions, though this interaction is complex. This research provides the first evidence that the loss of threatened species would have significant ramifications for global phytoregions and demonstrates the need to consider extinction processes in studies of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity patterns.

rWCVP: a companion R package for the World Checklist of Vascular Plants.

The World Checklist of Vascular Plants (WCVP) is an extremely valuable resource that is being used to address many fundamental and applied questions in plant science, conservation, ecology and evolution. However, databases of this size require data manipulation skills that pose a barrier to many potential users. Here, we present rWCVP, an open-source R package that aims to facilitate the use of the WCVP by providing clear, intuitive functions to execute many common tasks. These functions include taxonomic name reconciliation, geospatial integration, mapping and generation of multiple different summaries of the WCVP in both data and report format. We have included extensive documentation and tutorials, providing step-by-step guides that are accessible even to users with minimal programming experience. rWCVP is available on cran and GitHub.

Evidence-based guidelines for automated conservation assessments of plant species.

Assessing species' extinction risk is vital to setting conservation priorities. However, assessment endeavors, such as those used to produce the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, have significant gaps in taxonomic coverage. Automated assessment (AA) methods are gaining popularity to fill these gaps. Choices made in developing, using, and reporting results of AA methods could hinder their successful adoption or lead to poor allocation of conservation resources. We explored how choice of data cleaning type and level, taxonomic group, training sample, and automation method affect performance of threat status predictions for plant species. We used occurrences from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to generate assessments for species in 3 taxonomic groups based on 6 different occurrence-based AA methods. We measured each method's performance and coverage following increasingly stringent occurrence cleaning. Automatically cleaned data from GBIF performed comparably to occurrence records cleaned manually by experts. However, all types of data cleaning limited the coverage of AAs. Overall, machine-learning-based methods performed well across taxa, even with minimal data cleaning. Results suggest a machine-learning-based method applied to minimally cleaned data offers the best compromise between performance and species coverage. However, optimal data cleaning, training sample, and automation methods depend on the study group, intended applications, and expertise.

La valoración del riesgo de extinción de las especies es vital para el establecimiento de prioridades de conservación. Sin embargo, los esfuerzos de valoración, como los que se usan para generar la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN, tienen brechas importantes en la cobertura taxonómica. Los métodos de valoración automatizada (VA) están ganando popularidad como reductores de estas brechas. Las elecciones realizadas en el desarrollo, uso y reporte de resultados de los métodos de VA podrían obstaculizar su adopción exitosa o derivar en una asignación deficiente de recursos para la conservación. Exploramos cómo la selección del tipo de limpieza de datos y el nivel, grupo taxonómico, muestra de entrenamiento y el método de automatización afectan el desempeño de las predicciones del estado de amenaza de las especies de plantas. Usamos los registros de la Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) para generar las valoraciones de las especies de tres grupos taxonómicos con base en seis métodos diferentes de VA basados en la presencia de las especies. Medimos el desempeño de cada método y cobertura después de una limpieza de presencia cada vez más estricta. La información de la GBIF limpiada automáticamente tuvo un desempeño comparable con los registros de presencia limpiados manualmente por expertos. Sin embargo, todos los tipos de limpieza de datos limitaron la cobertura de las valoraciones automatizadas. En general, los métodos basados en el aprendizaje automático tuvieron un buen desempeño en todos los taxones, incluso con una limpieza mínima de datos. Los resultados sugieren que un método basado en el aprendizaje automático aplicado a información con la mínima limpieza ofrece el mejor equilibrio entre el desempeño y la cobertura de la especie. A pesar de esto, la limpieza óptima de datos, la muestra de entrenamiento y los métodos de automatización dependen del grupo de estudio, las aplicaciones deseadas y la experiencia.

Plants used traditionally as antimalarials in Latin America: Mining the tree of life for potential new medicines.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Malaria remains a serious and challenging disease. Traditional antimalarial medicines are largely based on plants, and ethnopharmacological research has inspired the development of antimalarial pharmaceuticals such as artemisinin. Antimalarial drug resistance is an increasing problem in Plasmodium species, and new therapeutic strategies to combat malaria are needed. Although the number of malaria cases has been decreasing in Latin America, malaria remains a significant threat in many regions. Local people in Latin America have been using numerous plant species to treat malaria, some of which have been scientifically studied, but many others have not. AIM OF THE STUDY: Our principal objective is to harness ethnobotanical data on species used traditionally to treat malaria, combined with phylogenetic approaches, to understand how ethnobotany could help identify plant genera as potential sources of new medicines. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Plants used to treat malaria in Latin America were compiled from published and grey literature, unpublished data, and herbarium specimens. Initial assessment of potentially important species/genera/families included compiling the number of species used within the genus, the number of use reports per genus and species, and the geographic distribution of their use. The analysis of taxonomic distribution of species reported as antimalarial in Latin America (excluding the Southern Cone) was conducted, to determine which genera and families with reputed antimalarial properties are over-represented, and phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify if there was evidence for antimalarial species being dispersed/clustered throughout the tree or at its tips. This approach enabled 'hot-nodes' in certain families to be identified, to predict new genera with potential antimalarial properties. RESULTS: Over 1000 plant species have been used to treat malaria in Latin America, of which over 600 species were cited only once. The genera with the highest number of antimalarial species were Aspidosperma, Solanum, Piper, Croton and Aristolochia. In terms of geographic distribution, the most widely used genera were Aspidosperma, Momordica, Cinchona, Senna and Stachytarpheta. Significant phylogenetic signal was detected in the distribution of native species used for malaria, analysed in a genus-level phylogenetic framework. The eudicot and magnoliidae lineages were over-represented, while monocots were not. CONCLUSION: Analysis of ethnobotanical use reports in a phylogenetic framework reveals the existence of hot nodes for malaria across the Latin American flora. We demonstrate how species and genera currently lacking such reports could be pinpointed as of potential interest based on their evolutionary history. Extending this approach to other regions of the world and other diseases could accelerate the discovery of novel medicines and enhance healthcare in areas where new therapeutic strategies are needed.

Botanical Monography in the Anthropocene.

Unprecedented changes in the Earth's biota are prompting urgent efforts to describe and conserve plant diversity. For centuries, botanical monographs - comprehensive systematic treatments of a family or genus - have been the gold standard for disseminating scientific information to accelerate research. The lack of a monograph compounds the risk that undiscovered species become extinct before they can be studied and conserved. Progress towards estimating the Tree of Life and digital information resources now bring even the most ambitious monographs within reach. Here, we recommend best practices to complete monographs urgently, especially for tropical plant groups under imminent threat or with expected socioeconomic benefits. We also highlight the renewed relevance and potential impact of monographies for the understanding, sustainable use, and conservation of biodiversity.

Harnessing Large-Scale Herbarium Image Datasets Through Representation Learning.

The mobilization of large-scale datasets of specimen images and metadata through herbarium digitization provide a rich environment for the application and development of machine learning techniques. However, limited access to computational resources and uneven progress in digitization, especially for small herbaria, still present barriers to the wide adoption of these new technologies. Using deep learning to extract representations of herbarium specimens useful for a wide variety of applications, so-called "representation learning," could help remove these barriers. Despite its recent popularity for camera trap and natural world images, representation learning is not yet as popular for herbarium specimen images. We investigated the potential of representation learning with specimen images by building three neural networks using a publicly available dataset of over 2 million specimen images spanning multiple continents and institutions. We compared the extracted representations and tested their performance in application tasks relevant to research carried out with herbarium specimens. We found a triplet network, a type of neural network that learns distances between images, produced representations that transferred the best across all applications investigated. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to learn representations of specimen images useful in different applications, and we identify some further steps that we believe are necessary for representation learning to harness the rich information held in the worlds' herbaria.

The Importance of Quantifying the Composition of the Amorphous Intermixed Phase in Organic Solar Cells.

The relation of phase morphology and solid-state microstructure with organic photovoltaic (OPV) device performance has intensely been investigated over the last twenty years. While it has been established that a combination of donor:acceptor intermixing and presence of relatively phase-pure donor and acceptor domains is needed to get an optimum compromise between charge generation and charge transport/charge extraction, a quantitative picture of how much intermixing is needed is still lacking. This is mainly due to the difficulty in quantitatively analyzing the intermixed phase, which generally is amorphous. Here, fast scanning calorimetry, which allows measurement of device-relevant thin films (<200 nm thickness), is exploited to deduce the precise composition of the intermixed phase in bulk-heterojunction structures. The power of fast scanning calorimetry is illustrated by considering two polymer:fullerene model systems. Somewhat surprisingly, it is found that a relatively small fraction (<15 wt%) of an acceptor in the intermixed amorphous phase leads to efficient charge generation. In contrast, charge transport can only be sustained in blends with a significant amount of the acceptor in the intermixed phase (in this case: ≈58 wt%). This example shows that fast scanning calorimetry is an important tool for establishing a complete compositional characterization of organic bulk heterojunctions. Hence, it will be critical in advancing quantitative morphology-function models that allow for the rational design of these devices, and in delivering insights in, for example, solar cell degradation mechanisms via phase separation, especially for more complex high-performing systems such as nonfullerene acceptor:polymer bulk heterojunctions.

Rapid Least Concern: towards automating Red List assessments.

BACKGROUND: The IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM (hereafter the Red List) is an important global resource for conservation that supports conservation planning, safeguarding critical habitat and monitoring biodiversity change (Rodrigues et al. 2006). However, a major shortcoming of the Red List is that most of the world's described species have not yet been assessed and published on the Red List (Bachman et al. 2019Eisenhauer et al. 2019). Conservation efforts can be better supported if the Red List is expanded to achieve greater coverage of mega-diverse groups of organisms such as plants, fungi and invertebrates. There is, therefore, an urgent need to speed up the Red List assessment and documentation workflow.One reason for this lack of species coverage is that a manual and relatively time-consuming procedure is usually employed to assess and document species. A recent update of Red List documentation standards (IUCN 2013) reduced the data requirements for publishing non-threatened or 'Least Concern' species on the Red List. The majority of the required fields for Least Concern plant species can be found in existing open-access data sources or can be easily calculated. There is an opportunity to consolidate these data and analyses into a simple application to fast-track the publication of Least Concern assessments for plants. There could be as many as 250,000 species of plants (60%) likely to be categorised as Least Concern (Bachman et al. 2019), for which automatically generated assessments could considerably reduce the outlay of time and valuable resources for Red Listing, allowing attention and resources to be dedicated to the assessment of those species most likely to be threatened. NEW INFORMATION: We present a web application, Rapid Least Concern, that addresses the challenge of accelerating the generation and documentation of Least Concern Red List assessments. Rapid Least Concern utilises open-source datasets, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Plants of the World Online (POWO) through a simple web interface. Initially, the application is intended for use on plants, but it could be extended to other groups, depending on the availability of equivalent datasets for these groups.Rapid Least Concern users can assess a single species or upload a list of species that are assessed in a batch operation. The batch operation can either utilise georeferenced occurrence data from GBIF or occurrence data provided by the user. The output includes a series of CSV files and a point map file that meet the minimum data requirements for a Least Concern Red List assessment (IUCN 2013). The CSV files are compliant with the IUCN Red List SIS Connect system that transfers the data files to the IUCN database and, pending quality control checks and review, publication on the Red List.We outline the knowledge gap this application aims to fill and describe how the application works. We demonstrate a use-case for Rapid Least Concern as part of an ongoing initiative to complete a global Red List assessment of all native species for the United Kingdom Overseas Territory of Bermuda.

Plotting a future for Amazonian canga vegetation in a campo rupestre context.

In order to establish effective conservation strategy, drivers of local and regional patterns of biodiversity need to be understood. The composition of local biodiversity is dependent on a number of factors including evolution and redistribution of lineages through dispersal and environmental heterogeneity. Brazilian canga is characterised by a ferrugineous substrate, found both in the Iron Quadrangle of Minas Gerais and in the Carajás mountains in Amazonia. Canga is one of several specialised habitat types comprising Brazilian campo rupestre, a montane vegetation found within or adjacent to several major Brazilian bioregions, including the Atlantic Forest and Amazonia, with exceptionally high levels of diversity and endemism arising from both history of dispersal and environmental variation. In order to inform biodiversity conservation for canga, and more broadly for campo rupestre, we performed floristic and phylogenetic analyses investigating affinities between 28 sites on different substrates (canga and quartzite) and geographic locations (Carajás, Pará [Amazonia]; Cadeia do Espinhaço, Minas Gerais; Chapada Diamantina, Bahia). Through analysis of 11204 occurrences of 4705 species of angiosperms, we found that Amazonian Carajás canga plant communities formed a cohesive group, distinct from species assemblages found in Eastern Brazil (Minas Gerais, Bahia), either on canga or quartzite. The phylogenetic megatree of species across all sites investigated shows associations between certain clades and Amazonian canga, with few shared species between the Amazonian Carajás and Eastern Brazil sites, while the floristic comparison shows high levels of heterogeneity between sites. The need for reserves for Amazonian Carajás canga has been recognized and addressed by the creation of a national park. However, current sampling does not provide sufficient reassurance that the canga areas now benefitting from full legal protection adequately represent the regional canga flora.

Enhancement of conservation knowledge through increased access to botanical information.

Herbarium specimens are increasingly recognized as an important resource for conservation science and virtual herbaria are making specimens freely available to a wider range of users than ever before. Few virtual herbaria are designed with conservation use as a primary driver. Exceptionally, Brazil's Reflora Virtual Herbarium (RVH) was created to increase knowledge and conservation of the Brazilian flora. The RVH is closely integrated with the Flora of Brazil 2020 platform on which Brazil's new national Flora is under construction. Both resources are accessible via the Reflora home page and thousands of users move seamlessly between these Reflora resources. To understand how the Reflora resources are currently used and their impact on conservation science, we conducted a literature review and an online survey. We searched for publications of studies in which Reflora resources were used and publications resulting from Brazilian researchers who were part of Reflora's research and mobility program. The survey contained multiple choice questions and questions that required a written response. We targeted Reflora webpage visitors with the survey to capture a wider range of Reflora users than the literature review. Reflora resources were used for a variety of conservation-relevant purposes. Half the 806 scientific publications in which Reflora was cited and 81% of the 1069 survey respondents accessing Reflora resources mentioned conservation-relevant research outputs. Most conservation-relevant uses of the Reflora resources in scientific publications were research rather than implementation focused. The survey of Reflora users showed conservation uses and impacts of virtual herbaria were more numerous and diverse than the uses captured in the literature review. Virtual herbaria are vital resources for conservation science, but they must document use and impacts more comprehensively to ensure sustainability.

Revalorización del Conocimiento sobre Conservación por Medio de Mayor Acceso a la Información Botánica Resumen Los especímenes de los herbarios son reconocidos cada vez más como un recurso importante para la ciencia de la conservación, y, como nunca antes, los herbarios virtuales están poniendo a los especímenes a libre disposición para una gama mucho más amplia de usuarios. Pocos herbarios virtuales están diseñados con el uso para la conservación como conductor primario. Excepcionalmente, se creó el Herbario Virtual Reflora de Brasil (RVH, en inglés) para incrementar el conocimiento y la conservación de la flora brasileña. El RVH está integrado cuidadosamente con la plataforma Flora de Brasil 2020, sobre la cual está bajo construcción la nueva flora nacional de Brasil. Se accede a ambos recursos a través de la página inicial de Reflora y miles de usuarios navegan continuamente entre estos recursos de la página. Para entender cómo se usan actualmente los recursos de Reflora así como su impacto sobre la ciencia de la conservación, realizamos una revisión de la literatura y una encuesta en línea. Buscamos las publicaciones de estudios que usaron los recursos de Reflora y las publicaciones elaboradas por investigadores brasileños que formaron parte del programa de investigación y movilidad de Reflora. La encuesta incluyó preguntas de opción múltiple y preguntas que requerían una respuesta escrita. Enfocamos la encuesta en los visitantes a la página web de Reflora para obtener una gama más amplia de usuarios de Reflora que la que obtendríamos sólo con la revisión de la literatura. Los recursos de Reflora se usaron para una variedad de propósitos relevantes para la conservación. La mitad de las 806 publicaciones científicas en las que se citó a Reflora y el 81% de los 1069 encuestados que acceden a los recursos de Reflora mencionaron resultados de investigación relevantes para la conservación. La mayoría de los usos relevantes para la conservación de los recursos de Reflora en las publicaciones científicas estuvieron más enfocados en la investigación que en la implementación. La encuesta para los usuarios de Reflora mostró que los usos e impactos de los herbarios virtuales fueron más numerosos y diversos que los usos capturados en la revisión de la literatura. Los herbarios virtuales son recursos vitales para la ciencia de la conservación, pero deben documentar su uso y sus impactos exhaustivamente para asegurar su sustentabilidad.

Harnessing the potential of integrated systematics for conservation of taxonomically complex, megadiverse plant groups.

The value of natural history collections for conservation science research is increasingly recognized, despite their well-documented limitations in terms of taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. Specimen-based analyses are particularly important for tropical plant groups for which field observations are scarce and potentially unreliable due to high levels of diversity-amplifying identification challenges. Specimen databases curated by specialists are rich sources of authoritatively identified, georeferenced occurrence data, and such data are urgently needed for large genera. We compared entries in a monographic database for the large Neotropical genus Myrcia in 2007 and 2017. We classified and quantified differences in specimen records over this decade and determined the potential impact of these changes on conservation assessments. We distinguished misidentifications from changes due to taxonomic remodeling and considered the effects of adding specimens and georeferences. We calculated the potential impact of each change on estimates of extent of occurrence (EOO), the most frequently used metric in extinction-risk assessments of tropical plants. We examined whether particular specimen changes were associated with species for which changes in EOO over the decade were large enough to change their conservation category. Corrections to specimens previously misidentified or lacking georeferences were overrepresented in such species, whereas changes associated with taxonomic remodeling (lumping and splitting) were underrepresented. Among species present in both years, transitions to less threatened status outnumbered those to more threatened (8% vs 3%, respectively). Species previously deemed data deficient transitioned to threatened status more often than to not threatened (10% vs 7%, respectively). Conservation scientists risk reaching unreliable conclusions if they use specimen databases that are not actively curated to reflect changing knowledge.

Empleo del Potencial de la Sistemática Integrada para la Conservación de Grupos Botánicos Complejos y Megadiversos Resumen Cada vez se reconoce más el valor que tienen las colecciones de historia natural para la investigación dentro de la ciencia de la conservación, a pesar de las limitaciones en la documentación adecuada de la cobertura taxonómica, geográfica y temporal. Los análisis con base en especímenes son de particular importancia en los grupos de plantas tropicales, para los cuales las observaciones en el campo son escasas y potencialmente de poca confianza debido la gran cantidad de retos de identificación que amplifican la diversidad. Las bases de datos de especímenes que son curadas por especialistas son fuentes abundantes de datos identificados autoritativamente y de distribución georeferenciada, por lo que es urgente la necesidad de dichos datos para géneros extensos. Comparamos las entradas en una base de datos monográfica para el género neotropical extenso Myrcia en 2007 y en 2017. Clasificamos y cuantificamos las diferencias en los registros de especímenes durante esta década y determinamos el impacto potencial de estos cambios sobre las evaluaciones de conservación. Separamos las identificaciones erróneas de los cambios causados por la remodelación taxonómica y consideramos los efectos de la adición de especímenes y de georeferencias. Calculamos el impacto potencial de cada cambio sobre las estimaciones de la extensión de la distribución (EOO, en inglés), la medida que se utiliza con mayor frecuencia en las valoraciones del riesgo de extinción de las plantas tropicales. Examinamos si los cambios en un espécimen particular estuvieron asociados con especies para las cuales los cambios en la EOO durante la década fueron lo suficientemente amplios para cambiarles la categoría de conservación. Las correcciones hechas a especímenes previamente mal identificados o carentes de georeferencias estuvieron sobre-representadas en dichas especies, mientras que los cambios asociados con la remodelación taxonómica (agrupamiento y separación) estuvieron sub-representados. Entre las especies presentes en ambos años, las transiciones hacia un estado de conservación con menor amenaza superaron en cantidad a aquellas hacia un estado de mayor amenaza (8% vs 3%, respectivamente). Las especies que con anterioridad se clasificaban como deficientes de datos tuvieron más transiciones hacia el estado de amenazadas que hacia el estado de no amenazadas (10% vs 7%, respectivamente). Los científicos de la conservación corren el riesgo de llegar a conclusiones poco confiables si utilizan bases de datos de especímenes que no sean actualizadas para reflejar el conocimiento cambiante.

The use and misuse of herbarium specimens in evaluating plant extinction risks.

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.