RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the natural history of HIV infection caused by contaminated plasma donation among former commercial plasma donors in China. METHODS: Ambispective cohort study among HIV/AIDS cases and suspected AIDS deaths was conducted from January 1, 1995 to March 31, 2008 in 7 administrative villages in Shangcai county of Henan province. Information regarding diagnostic criteria, deaths and anti-retrovirus treatment was collected. Incubation and survival time were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and life-tables method. Sensitive analysis on the time of outcome was conducted. RESULTS: A total number of 2569 cases of HIV infection including 483 suspected AIDS deaths were involved in a cohort. 200 patients with rapid progress (7.8%) and 337 long-term but non-progressive patients (13.1%) were identified. Results from the sensitive analysis showed that the median incubation period from HIV infection to AIDS was between 8.5 and 8.9 years, with incidence as 11.7 - 12.0 cases/100 person-years and the median survival time for HIV progression to death was from 8.8 to 10.7 years, with the death rate as 6.9 - 8.3 cases/100 person-years. The median survival time for AIDS patient was from 1.2 to 2.0 years, with death rate as 34.9 - 51.5 cases/100 person-years. CONCLUSION: According to sensitive analysis, the incubation period for HIV progression to AIDS, the median survival time for HIV progression to death and the median survival time for AIDS patient to death were 8.8 years, 1.2 years and 9.8 years, respectively.
