Metabolic phenotypes of obesity: frequency, correlates and change over time in a cohort of postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: The possibility that a subset of persons who are obese may be metabolically healthy-referred to as the 'metabolically healthy obese' (MHO) phenotype-has attracted attention recently. However, few studies have followed individuals with MHO or other obesity phenotypes over time to assess change in their metabolic profiles. The aim of the present study was to examine transitions over a 6-year period among different states defined simultaneously by body mass index (BMI) and the presence/absence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). METHODS: We used repeated measurements available for a subcohort of participants enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative (N=3512) and followed for an average of 6 years to examine the frequency of different metabolic obesity phenotypes at baseline, the 6-year transition probabilities to other states and predictors of the risk of different transitions. Six phenotypes were defined by cross-tabulating BMI (18.5-<25.0, 25.0-<30.0, ⩾30.0 kg m-2) by MetS (yes, no). A continuous-time Markov model was used to estimate 6-year transition probabilities from one state to another. RESULTS: Over the 6 years of follow-up, one-third of women with the healthy obese phenotype transitioned to the metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotype. Overall, there was a marked tendency toward increased metabolic deterioration with increasing BMI and toward metabolic improvement with lower BMI. Among MHO women, the 6-year probability of becoming MUO was 34%, whereas among unhealthy normal-weight women, the probability of 'regressing' to the metabolically healthy normal-weight phenotype was 52%. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated substantial change in metabolic obesity phenotypes over a 6-year period. There was a marked tendency toward metabolic deterioration with greater BMI and toward metabolic improvement with lower BMI.

Multivitamin and mineral use and breast cancer mortality in older women with invasive breast cancer in the women's health initiative.

Multivitamin use is common in the United States. It is not known whether multivitamins with minerals supplements (MVM) used by women already diagnosed with invasive breast cancer would affect their breast cancer mortality risk. To determine prospectively the effects of MVM use on breast cancer mortality in postmenopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer, a prospective cohort study was conducted of 7,728 women aged 50-79 at enrollment in the women's health initiative (WHI) in 40 clinical sites across the United States diagnosed with incident invasive breast cancer during WHI and followed for a mean of 7.1 years after breast cancer diagnosis. Use of MVM supplements was assessed at WHI baseline visit and at visit closest to breast cancer diagnosis, obtained from vitamin pill bottles brought to clinic visit. Outcome was breast cancer mortality. Hazard ratios and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer mortality comparing MVM users to non-users were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Analyses using propensity to take MVM were done to adjust for potential differences in characteristics of MVM users versus non-users. At baseline, 37.8 % of women reported MVM use. After mean post-diagnosis follow-up of 7.1 ± 4.1 (SD) years, there were 518 (6.7 %) deaths from breast cancer. In adjusted analyses, breast cancer mortality was 30 % lower in MVM users as compared to non-users (HR = 0.70; 95 % CI 0.55, 0.91). This association was highly robust and persisted after multiple adjustments for potential confounding variables and in propensity score matched analysis (HR = 0.76; 95 % CI 0.60-0.96). Postmenopausal women with invasive breast cancer using MVM had lower breast cancer mortality than non-users. The results suggest a possible role for daily MVM use in attenuating breast cancer mortality in women with invasive breast cancer but the findings require confirmation.

Generalization of adiposity genetic loci to US Hispanic women.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a public health concern. Yet the identification of adiposity-related genetic variants among United States (US) Hispanics, which is the largest US minority group, remains largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To interrogate an a priori list of 47 (32 overall body mass and 15 central adiposity) index single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously studied in individuals of European descent among 3494 US Hispanic women in the Women's Health Initiative SNP Health Association Resource (WHI SHARe). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were inverse normally transformed after adjusting for age, smoking, center and global ancestry. WC and WHR models were also adjusted for BMI. Genotyping was performed using the Affymetrix 6.0 array. In the absence of an a priori selected SNP, a proxy was selected (r(2)0.8 in CEU). RESULTS: Six BMI loci (TMEM18, NUDT3/HMGA1, FAIM2, FTO, MC4R and KCTD15) and two WC/WHR loci (VEGFA and ITPR2-SSPN) were nominally significant (P<0.05) at the index or proxy SNP in the corresponding BMI and WC/WHR models. To account for distinct linkage disequilibrium patterns in Hispanics and further assess generalization of genetic effects at each locus, we interrogated the evidence for association at the 47 surrounding loci within 1 Mb region of the index or proxy SNP. Three additional BMI loci (FANCL, TFAP2B and ETV5) and five WC/WHR loci (DNM3-PIGC, GRB14, ADAMTS9, LY86 and MSRA) displayed Bonferroni-corrected significant associations with BMI and WC/WHR. Conditional analyses of each index SNP (or its proxy) and the most significant SNP within the 1 Mb region supported the possible presence of index-independent signals at each of these eight loci as well as at KCTD15. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for the generalization of nine BMI and seven central adiposity loci in Hispanic women. This study expands the current knowledge of common adiposity-related genetic loci to Hispanic women.

Effect of long term low-fat dietary intervention on change in hemostatic factors: results from the Women's Health Initiative.

Low-fat diet may play a role in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by altering the levels of hemostatic factors. There are yet limited data on the effects of low-fat diet on the circulating levels of these factors and existing studies are limited by small sample size and short duration of follow-up. We conducted an analysis in a subset of women (active arm = 723; control arm = 1036) within the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial to investigate the long term effect of a low-fat diet on circulating levels of fibrinogen, factor VII concentration and factor VII activity among postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years. Using linear mixed effects model with random intercept and data from three follow-up visits (years 1, 3 and 6) we evaluated the change in each factor over time. Overall, the changes in these factors were small (less than 5%) in both the arms of the trials at the end of intervention and there was no significant difference in mean change between the two arms. Our results indicate that the low-fat dietary intervention was not associated with significant changes in hemostatic factors among postmenopausal women.

Collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from observational studies of Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: A large number of observational epidemiological studies have reported generally positive associations between circulating mass and activity levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Few studies have been large enough to provide reliable estimates in different circumstances, such as in different subgroups (e.g., by age group, sex, or smoking status) or at different Lp-PLA2 levels. Moreover, most published studies have related disease risk only to baseline values of Lp-PLA2 markers (which can lead to substantial underestimation of any risk relationships because of within-person variability over time) and have used different approaches to adjustment for possible confounding factors. OBJECTIVES: By combination of data from individual participants from all relevant observational studies in a systematic 'meta-analysis', with correction for regression dilution (using available data on serial measurements of Lp-PLA2), the Lp-PLA2 Studies Collaboration will aim to characterize more precisely than has previously been possible the strength and shape of the age and sex-specific associations of plasma Lp-PLA2 with coronary heart disease (and, where data are sufficient, with other vascular diseases, such as ischaemic stroke). It will also help to determine to what extent such associations are independent of possible confounding factors and to explore potential sources of heterogeneity among studies, such as those related to assay methods and study design. It is anticipated that the present collaboration will serve as a framework to investigate related questions on Lp-PLA2 and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: A central database is being established containing data on circulating Lp-PLA2 values, sex and other potential confounding factors, age at baseline Lp-PLA2 measurement, age at event or at last follow-up, major vascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information about any repeat measurements of Lp-PLA2 and potential confounding factors has been sought to allow adjustment for possible confounding and correction for regression dilution. The analyses will involve age-specific regression models. Synthesis of the available observational studies of Lp-PLA2 will yield information on a total of about 15 000 cardiovascular disease endpoints.

Computerized weight loss intervention optimizes staff time: the clinical and cost results of a controlled clinical trial conducted in a managed care setting.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the costs and effects of incremental components of a weight-loss program. DESIGN: A 3-arm, 12-month randomized controlled clinical trial to evaluate 3 incremental levels of intervention intensity. SUBJECTS/SETTING: The study included 588 individuals (BMI > 25 kg/m2) in a freestanding health maintenance organizalion and achieved an 81% completion rate. INTERVENTION: Using a cognitive behavioral approach for tailoring lifestyle modification goals, the incremental levels of intervention included a) a workbook alone, b) the addition of computerized tailoring using onsite computer kiosks with touch screen monitors, and c) the addition of both computers and staff consultation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Endpoints included weight parameters, lipid profile, plasma glucose, blood pressure, intervention costs, dietary intake, and physical activity. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED: Study endpoints were analyzed using analysis of variance for normally distributed variables and analysis of covariance to control for any baseline differences. Regression and correlation analysis assessed the relationship between weight loss and other variables. RESULTS: For the increasing levels of intervention intensity, the mean 12-month weight losses were 2.2, 4.7, and 7.4 pounds, with the respective cost per participant being $12.33, $41.99, and $133.74. The decreases in mean BMIs for these respective intervelation levels were 0.4, 0.9 and 1.2. All groups reported a decrease in energy and fat intake and an increase in blocks walked (P<.01). Intervention variables that correlated with weight loss included more computer log-ons, achieving computer-selected goals, more self-monitoring, increased walking, and decreased energy and fat intake, as well as higher attendance in staff consultation group sessions for that treatment condition. Weight loss correlated with decreases in fasting glucose and blood pressure. APPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS: In a weight-loss program, computers can facilitate selecting behavioral change goals. More frequent usage resulted in greater weight loss. Staff counseling to augment the computer intervention achieved the most weight loss.

Lower standing systolic blood pressure as a predictor of falls in the elderly: a community-based prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated prospectively the relationships among falls, physical balance, and standing and supine blood pressure (BP) in elderly persons. BACKGROUND: Falls occur often and adversely affect the activities of daily living in the elderly; however, their relationship to BP has not been clarified thoroughly. METHODS: A total of 266 community-dwelling elderly persons age 65 years or over (123 men and 143 women, mean age of 76 years) were selected from among residents of Coop City, Bronx, New York. Balance was evaluated at baseline using computerized dynamic posturography (DPG). During a one-year follow-up, we collected information on subsequent falls on a monthly basis by postcard and telephone follow-up. RESULTS: One or more falls occurred in 60 subjects (22%) during the one-year follow-up. Women fell more frequently than men (28% vs. 16%, p < 0.03), and fallers were younger than nonfallers. Fallers (n = 60) had lower systolic BP (SBP) levels when compared with nonfallers (n = 206) (128 +/- 17 vs. 137 +/- 22 mm Hg for standing, p < 0.006; 137 +/- 16 vs. 144 +/- 22 mm Hg for lying, p < 0.02), whereas diastolic BP was not related to falls. Falls occurred 2.8 times more often in the lower BP subgroup (<140 mm Hg for standing SBP) than in the higher BP subgroup (> or =140 mm Hg, p < 0.0003), and gender-related differences were observed (p = 0.006): 3.4 times for women (p < 0.0001) versus 1.9 times for men (p = 0.30). Loss of balance, as detected by DPG, did not predict future falls and was also not associated with baseline BP levels. Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that female gender (relative risk [RR] = 2.1, p = 0.02), history of falls (RR = 2.5, p = 0.008) and lower standing SBP level (RR = 0.78 for 10 mm Hg increase, p = 0.005) were independent predictors of falls during one year of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Lower standing SBP, even within normotensive ranges, was an independent predictor of falls in the community-dwelling elderly. Elderly women with a history of falls and with lower SBP levels should have more attention paid to the prevention of falls and related accidents.

Hypertension and its treatment in postmenopausal women: baseline data from the Women's Health Initiative.

Little is known about the patterns of treatment and adequacy of blood pressure control in older women. The Women's Health Initiative, a 40-center national study of risk factors and prevention of heart disease, breast and colorectal cancer, and osteoporosis in postmenopausal women, provides a unique opportunity to examine these issues in the largest, multiethnic, best-characterized such cohort. Baseline data from the initial 98 705 women, aged 50 to 79 years, enrolled were analyzed to relate prevalence, treatment, and control of hypertension to demographic, clinical, and risk-factor covariates, and logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate odds ratios after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Overall, 37.8% of the women had hypertension, which is defined as systolic blood pressure >/=140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure >/=90 mm Hg or being on medication for high blood pressure; 64.3% were treated with drugs, and blood pressure was controlled in only 36.1% of the hypertensive women, with lower rates of control in the oldest group. After adjustment for multiple covariates, current hormone users had higher prevalence than did nonusers (odds ratio 1.25). Hypertensive women had more comorbid conditions than did nonhypertensive women, and women with comorbidities were more likely to be treated pharmacologically. Diuretics were used by 44.3% of hypertensives either as monotherapy or in combination with other drug classes. As monotherapy, calcium channel blockers were used in 16%, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in 14%, beta-blockers in 9%, and diuretics in 14% of the hypertensive women. Diuretics as monotherapy were associated with better blood pressure control than any of the other drug classes as monotherapy. In conclusion, hypertension in older women is not being treated aggressively enough because a large proportion, especially those most at risk for stroke and heart disease by virtue of age, does not have sufficient blood pressure control.

Clinical and nonclinical correlates of racial and ethnic differences in recommendation patterns for coronary revascularization.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether gender or racial differences exist in recommendations for coronary revascularization in a multiracial patient population undergoing their first coronary angiography at an academic institution from 1990-1993 for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). HYPOTHESIS: For patients with clinically significant CAD, no racial differences exist in the recommendation to revascularization following coronary angiography. METHODS: The main outcome measure was a recommendation for coronary revascularization such as percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) for patients with clinically significant CAD (n = 590). The primary multiple logistic regression analysis focused on only those patients with angiographically severe disease, defined as triple-vessel or left main CAD (n = 180). Race was trichotomized into Hispanic, black, and white to ascertain whether any differential effects of race/ethnicity existed while controlling for age, gender, ejection fraction, angina, diabetes, hypertension, and peripheral vascular disease. A medical record review for all patients with severe CAD, who were given a recommendation for medical therapy, was conducted to ascertain whether previously unmeasured clinical factors or nonclinical factors may have precluded a PTCA/CABG recommendation. RESULTS: Hispanics with severe disease were significantly less likely than whites to be given a recommendation for PTCA/CABG following angiography [odds ratio (OR) = 0.39; 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.17, 0.92)]. Blacks were 67% as likely as whites to be given such a recommendation [OR = 0.67; 95% CI (0.17, 2.71)]. Medical records, reviewed for 35 of 40 of these patients given a recommendation for medical therapy, revealed that 6 patients eventually had PTCA/CABG within 6 months due to precipitating ischemic events; 9 had such severe or diffuse disease that revascularization did not appear to be an alternative, and 2 patients opted for medical therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Racial differences were manifested in the recommendations made following angiography and may be explained by previously unmeasured clinical as well as nonclinical factors.

Relation of low body mass to death and stroke in the systolic hypertension in the elderly program. The SHEP Cooperative Research Group.

BACKGROUND: There are scant data on the effect of body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) on cardiovascular events and death in older patients with hypertension. OBJECTIVE: To determine if low body mass in older patients with hypertension confers an increased risk of death or stroke. PATIENTS: Participants were 3975 men and women (mean age, 71 years) enrolled in 17 US centers in the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program trial, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of lowdose antihypertensive therapy, with follow-up for 5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year adjusted mortality and stroke rates from Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant relation of death or stroke with BMI in the placebo group (P = .47), and there was a U- or J-shaped relation in the treatment group. The J-shaped relation of death with BMI in the treated group (P = .03) showed that the lowest probability of death for men was associated with a BMI of 26.0 and for women with a BMI of 29.6; the curve was quite flat for women across a wide range of BMIs. For stroke, men and women did not differ, and the BMI nadir for both sexes combined was 29, with risk increasing steeply at BMIs below 24. Those in active treatment, however, had lower death and stroke rates compared with those taking placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients with hypertension, a wide range of BMIs was associated with a similar risk of death and stroke; a low BMI was associated with increased risk. Lean, older patients with hypertension in treatment should be monitored carefully for additional risk factors.

Self-rated health assessment and development of both cardiovascular and dementing illnesses in an ambulatory elderly population: a report from the Bronx Longitudinal Aging Study.

As part of the Bronx Longitudinal Aging Study, a prospective, community-based study designed to assess risk factors for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality and all-cause dementia, the investigators sought to determine whether a self-rated health assessment (SRHA) could be used as an independent predictor of new cardiovascular events and dementia (Alzheimer type and multi-infarct). A population of elderly (mean age 79 years) outpatient, ambulatory, nondemented patients (n = 487, 65% women) participated in this longitudinal study. Clinical diagnoses were made according to established criteria. At baseline, participants were asked to rate their current SRHA as excellent, good, fair, or poor, and were evaluated annually for as long as 10 years. Baseline SRHA findings were related to development of cardiovascular events and dementia. The SRHA was reported as excellent by 45 patients (9.4%), good by 212 (44.4%), fair by 178 (37.3%), and poor by 42 (8.8%). Using a multivariate analysis, patients whose SRHA was poor were 4.5 times more likely than those whose SRHA was excellent to have a fatal cardiovascular event, 2.6 times more likely to have a nonfatal cardiovascular event, and 5.3 times more likely to develop Alzheimer type and multi-infarct dementia. Similar findings were observed with dichotomous SRHA responses (comparing excellent/good to fair/poor). In an elderly population, SRHA appears to be an independent predictor of future cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and development of all-cause dementia, which has possible therapeutic implications for prevention and treatment.

Viral characteristics of human papillomavirus infection and antioxidant levels as risk factors for cervical dysplasia.

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the major causal factor of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). The potential role of nutrition as an additional, independent risk factor for CIN has not been appropriately addressed in the context of HPV. This case-control study evaluated the etiologic role of HPV in terms of viral type and load and examined the association between CIN and plasma levels of micronutrients adjusting for HPV. Cases (n = 378) with histo-pathologically confirmed CIN and controls (n = 366) with no history of abnormal Pap smears were recruited from colposcopy and gynecology clinics, respectively. Risk of CIN was significantly increased among women who were infected with multiple HPV types (odds ratio [OR] = 21.06), a high viral load (OR = 13.08) and HPV 16 (OR = 62.49). After adjusting for HPV positivity and demographic factors, there was an inverse correlation between plasma alpha-tocopherol and risk of CIN (OR = 0.15). Plasma ascorbic acid was protective at a high level of > or = 0.803 mg/dl (OR = 0.46). CIN was not associated with plasma retinol and beta-carotene levels. The effect of genital HPV infection on CIN development is highly influenced by oncogenic viral type and high viral load. Vitamins C and E may play an independent protective role in development of CIN that needs to be confirmed in prospective studies.

Serum creatinine and blood urea nitrogen over a six-year period in the very old. Creatinine and BUN in the very old.

In a population of 141 very elderly subjects, there was a small but significant decline in BUN and creatinine at 3 years, which persisted at 6 years although partially attenuated. A similar pattern of falling BUN and creatinine was seen in the 31 subjects who began the study with mild azotemia. There was no significant change in the subjects' mean Body Mass Index during the 6-year period of observation. The azotemic subjects had a rate of death or dropout from the study similar to that of the entire cohort. Mean systolic blood pressure fell by 5.4 mm Hg (p < 0.05) and diastolic blood pressure by 2.1 mm Hg (p = NS) by 6 years. Users of diuretics or NSAID had a mean BUN and creatinine comparable to those not taking these medications. We conclude that BUN and serum creatinine do not necessarily increase with time in the old old, even in those with mild azotemia, hence, several determinations of these parameters may be needed to ensure accuracy. While renal function in the elderly probably does not improve with time, it may stabilize due to improvement in blood pressure. Use of diuretics and NSAID by functioning elderly individuals is not necessarily associated with worsening azotemia.

Clinical trial participant satisfaction: survey of SHEP enrollees. SHEP Cooperative Research Group. Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine older persons' reasons for joining a clinical trial, and to provide data that could be useful in planning and carrying out clinical trials in older and minority populations. DESIGN: A survey. PARTICIPANTS: The sample included 4281 men and women 60 years of age or older who were randomized to the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP). MEASUREMENTS: A 10-item satisfaction/attitude questionnaire was designed to evaluate (1) what personal benefits people expect from participation in this trial, (2) motivation for joining, and (3) satisfaction with clinic staff and operations. Each question had a response category asking for a measure of agreement, satisfaction, or importance. RESULTS: The most important reasons for joining the clinical trial were to contribute to science (96%), improve the health of others (96%), and improve their own health (93%). Free medical care and social aspects were less important reasons to join. There were no differences by treatment assignment, but differences in reasons for joining SHEP by age, race, gender, and education were observed. CONCLUSION: Older adults were enthusiastic about clinical trial participation. Recruitment, participant management strategies, and allocation of resources should consider the needs of specific patient groups.

Prevention of heart failure by antihypertensive drug treatment in older persons with isolated systolic hypertension. SHEP Cooperative Research Group.

CONTEXT: Heart failure is often preceded by isolated systolic hypertension, but the effectiveness of antihypertensive treatment in preventing heart failure is not known. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of diuretic-based antihypertensive stepped-care treatment on the occurrence of heart failure in older persons with isolated systolic hypertension. DESIGN: Analysis of data from a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4736 persons aged 60 years and older with systolic blood pressure between 160 and 219 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure below 90 mm Hg who participated in the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP). INTERVENTION: Stepped-care antihypertensive drug therapy, in which the step 1 drug is chlorthalidone (12.5-25 mg) or matching placebo, and the step 2 drug is atenolol (25-50 mg) or matching placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fatal and nonfatal heart failure. RESULTS: During an average of 4.5 years of follow-up, fatal or nonfatal heart failure occurred in 55 of 2365 patients randomized to active therapy and 105 of the 2371 patients randomized to placebo (relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37-0.71; P<.001; number needed to treat to prevent 1 event [NNT], 48). Among patients with a history of or electrocardiographic evidence of prior myocardial infarction (MI), the RR was 0.19 (95% CI, 0.06-0.53; P=.002; NNT, 15). Older patients, men, and those with higher systolic blood pressure or a history of or electrocardiographic evidence of MI at baseline had higher risk of developing heart failure. CONCLUSION: In older persons with isolated systolic hypertension, stepped-care treatment based on low-dose chlorthalidone exerted a strong protective effect in preventing heart failure. Among patients with prior MI, an 80% risk reduction was observed.

Serum lipids and incidence of coronary heart disease. Findings from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP).

BACKGROUND: The association of serum lipids with coronary heart disease has been studied extensively in middle-aged men and, to a lesser extent, in similar women. Less well defined are lipid variables predictive of CHD in individuals of age > or = 60 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program recruited 4736 persons (mean age, 72 years; 14% were black; and 43% were men). Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 170 and 77 mm Hg, respectively. Baseline mean total cholesterol was 6.11 mmol/L (236 mg/dL); HDL cholesterol, 1.39 mmol/L (54 mg/dL); and non-HDL cholesterol, 4.72 mmol/L (182 mg/dL). Triglyceride levels were 1.62 mmol/L (144 mg/dL) for fasting participants and 1.78 mmol/L for the total group. LDL cholesterol, estimated in fasting samples with triglycerides of < 4.52 mmol/L, averaged 3.98 mmol/L (154 mg/dL). Mean follow-up was 4.5 years. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, baseline total, non-HDL, and LDL cholesterol levels and the ratios of total, non-HDL, and LDL to HDL cholesterol were significantly related to CHD incidence. HDL cholesterol and triglycerides were not significant in these analyses. In fasting participants with triglyceride levels of < 4.52 mmol/L, a 1.03 mmol/L (40 mg/dL) higher baseline total, non-HDL, or LDL cholesterol was associated with a 30% to 35% higher CHD event rate. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support the concept that serum lipids are CHD risk factors in older Americans.