Net-Zero Embodied Carbon in Buildings with Today's Available Technologies.

Greenhouse gas emissions from building construction─i.e., the embodied carbon in buildings─are a significant and growing contributor to the climate crisis. However, our understanding of how to decarbonize building construction remains limited. This study shows that net-zero embodied carbon in buildings is achievable across Japan by 2050 using currently available technologies: decarbonized electricity supply, low-carbon steel, low-carbon concrete, increased timber structures, optimized design, and enhanced building lifespan. The largest emissions savings would come from increased use of timber structures, with annual savings of up to ∼35% by 2050, even in cases where timber replaces low-carbon steel and concrete. Moreover, we show that an expanded domestic timber supply, coupled with responsible reforestation, could improve forest carbon uptake by up to ∼60% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, without the need to increase forest area. This is achieved through a forest-city carbon cycle that transfers carbon stocks of mature trees to cities as building materials and rejuvenates forests through reforestation. Collectively, our analysis demonstrates that the decarbonization of building construction depends not on future technological innovation, but rather on how we design and use buildings with the options we already have.

Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand.

The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on the build-out of infrastructure, including for CO2 transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.

Growing role of concrete in sand and climate crises.

Concrete production poses multiple sustainability challenges, including resource over-exploitation and climate change. Here we show that growing global demand for buildings and infrastructure over the past three decades has quadrupled concrete production, reaching ∼26 Gt/year in 2020. As a result, annual requirements for virgin concrete aggregates (∼20 Gt/year) exceeded the extraction of all fossil fuels (∼15 Gt/year), exacerbating sand scarcity, ecosystem destruction, and social conflict. We also show that despite industry efforts to reduce CO2 emissions by ∼20% per unit of production, mainly through clinker substitution and improved thermal efficiency, increased production has outweighed these gains. Consequently, concrete-related CO2 emissions have tripled between 1990 and 2020, and its contribution to global emissions has risen from 5% to 9%. We propose that the policy agenda should focus more on limiting production growth by changing how concrete structures are designed, constructed, used, and disposed of to address the sand and climate crises.

Efficient use of cement and concrete to reduce reliance on supply-side technologies for net-zero emissions.

Decarbonization strategies for the cement and concrete sector have relied heavily on supply-side technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), masking opportunities for demand-side intervention. Here we show that cross-cutting strategies involving both the supply and demand sides can achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 across the entire Japanese cement and concrete cycle without resorting to mass deployment of CCS. Our analysis shows that a series of mitigation efforts on the supply side can reduce 2050 CO2 emissions by up to 80% from baseline levels and that the remaining 20% mitigation gap can be fully bridged by the efficient use of cement and concrete in the built environment. However, this decarbonization pathway is dependent on how CO2 uptake by carbonation and carbon capture and utilization is accounted for in the inventory. Our analysis underscores the importance of including demand-side interventions at the heart of decarbonization strategies and highlights the urgent need to discuss how to account for CO2 uptake in national inventories under the Paris Agreement.

Current state of building demolition and potential for selective dismantling in Vietnam.

In Vietnam, an increase in construction activities together with the absence of recycling-oriented demolition techniques is giving rise to an alarming generation of construction and demolition waste. This study scrutinized the current state of building demolition approaches in Hanoi, Vietnam and evaluated the potential for the selective dismantling, or deconstruction, of reinforced-concrete (RC) houses. Site observations, direct measurement, and interviews were conducted to obtain information on technical, environmental, and economic characteristics of three residential housing sites, each representing a typical current demolition technique (manual, hybrid, and mechanical demolition). A selective dismantling site is proposed based on the collected survey data and published case studies. Our findings confirmed the unsustainability of RC-building demolition practices in Hanoi, which have an average reuse/recycling rate of roughly 3%. The application of selective dismantling will boost the recycling rate to a remarkable 90%, associated with a 55% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. Even though selective dismantling is more time-consuming and therefore more costly, it results in double the resale value and an eight-fold decrease in disposal costs. The results of a sensitivity analysis indicate that increasing the current disposal fee will significantly improve the feasibility of selective dismantling, suggesting a need for stricter disposal charging mechanisms along with other interventions such as the development of recycling facilities to promote the introduction of this building removal alternative in Vietnam.

Responsibility of consumers for mining capacity: decomposition analysis of scarcity-weighted metal footprints in the case of Japan.

Metal-consuming countries depend on mining activity in other countries, which may impose potential pressure on sustainable metal supply. This study proposes an approach to analyze the responsibility of consuming countries for mining activities based on the decomposition analysis of scarcity-weighted metal footprints (S-MFs) of Japan. The application results to the Japanese final demand (iron, copper, and nickel) demonstrate the significance of country- and metal-specific conditions in terms of metal footprints and mining capacity in assessing the responsibility of consuming countries. Consuming countries can identify influential factors to reduce their S-MFs based on the decomposition analysis by discriminating the directly controllable and uncontrollable factors for consuming countries, which can help to plan different countermeasures depending on the types of the identified influential factors. The proposed approach supports metal-consuming countries to determine the effective options for reducing the responsibility for the sustainability of metal supply.

Global Metal Use Targets in Line with Climate Goals.

Metals underpin essential functions in modern society, yet their production currently intensifies climate change. This paper develops global targets for metal flows, stocks, and use intensity in the global economy out to 2100. These targets are consistent with emissions pathways to achieve a 2 °C climate goal and cover six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel). Results indicate that despite advances in low-carbon metal production, a transformative system change to meet the society's needs with less metal is required to remain within a 2 °C pathway. Globally, demand for goods and services over the 21st century needs to be met with approximately 7 t/capita of metal stock-roughly half the current level in high-income countries. This systemic change will require a peak in global metal production by 2030 and deep decoupling of economic growth from both metal flows and stocks. Importantly, the identified science-based targets are theoretically achievable through such measures as efficient design, more intensive use, and longer product lifetime, but immediate action is crucial before middle- and low-income countries complete full-scale urbanization.

Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles.

Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO2 of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.