The timing and causality of ecological shifts on Caribbean reefs.

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting.

The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing--and to-date insufficient--approaches to conservation.

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning.

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014.

This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013.

This paper presents the findings of our fourth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity. The 15 issues were identified via an iterative, transferable process by a team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. The 15 topics include the commercial use of antimicrobial peptides, thorium-fuelled nuclear power, and undersea oil production.

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012.

Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.

Coral identity underpins architectural complexity on Caribbean reefs.

The architectural complexity of ecosystems can greatly influence their capacity to support biodiversity and deliver ecosystem services. Understanding the components underlying this complexity can aid the development of effective strategies for ecosystem conservation. Caribbean coral reefs support and protect millions of livelihoods, but recent anthropogenic change is shifting communities toward reefs dominated by stress-resistant coral species, which are often less architecturally complex. With the regionwide decline in reef fish abundance, it is becoming increasingly important to understand changes in coral reef community structure and function. We quantify the influence of coral composition, diversity, and morpho-functional traits on the architectural complexity of reefs across 91 sites at Cozumel, Mexico. Although reef architectural complexity increases with coral cover and species richness, it is highest on sites that are low in taxonomic evenness and dominated by morpho-functionally important, reef-building coral genera, particularly Montastraea. Sites with similar coral community composition also tend to occur on reefs with very similar architectural complexity, suggesting that reef structure tends to be determined by the same key species across sites. Our findings provide support for prioritizing and protecting particular reef types, especially those dominated by key reef-building corals, in order to enhance reef complexity.

Density-structured models for plant population dynamics.

Density-structured models are structured population models in which the state variable is the proportion of populations or sites in a small number of discrete density states. Although such models have rarely been used, they have the advantage that they are straightforward to parameterize, make few assumptions about population dynamics, and permit rapid data collection using coarse density assessment. In this article, we highlight their use in relating population dynamics to environmental variation and their robustness to measurement error. We show that density-structured models are able to accurately represent population dynamics under a wide range of conditions. We look at the effects of including a persistent seedbank and describe numerical approximations for the mean and variance of population size. For simulated data, we determine the extent to which the underlying continuous process may be inferred from density-structured data. Finally, we discuss issues of parameter estimation and applications for which these types of models may be useful.

Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011.

This review describes outcomes of a 2010 horizon-scanning exercise building upon the first exercise conducted in 2009. The aim of both horizon scans was to identify emerging issues that could have substantial impacts on the conservation of biological diversity, and to do so sufficiently early to encourage policy-relevant, practical research on those issues. Our group included professional horizon scanners and researchers affiliated with universities and non- and inter-governmental organizations, including specialists on topics such as invasive species, wildlife diseases and coral reefs. We identified 15 nascent issues, including new greenhouse gases, genetic techniques to eradicate mosquitoes, milk consumption in Asia and societal pessimism.

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010.

Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually.

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity.

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6-20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services.

Recent region-wide declines in Caribbean reef fish abundance.

Profound ecological changes are occurring on coral reefs throughout the tropics, with marked coral cover losses and concomitant algal increases, particularly in the Caribbean region. Historical declines in the abundance of large Caribbean reef fishes likely reflect centuries of overexploitation. However, effects of drastic recent degradation of reef habitats on reef fish assemblages have yet to be established. By using meta-analysis, we analyzed time series of reef fish density obtained from 48 studies that include 318 reefs across the Caribbean and span the time period 1955-2007. Our analyses show that overall reef fish density has been declining significantly for more than a decade, at rates that are consistent across all subregions of the Caribbean basin (2.7% to 6.0% loss per year) and in three of six trophic groups. Changes in fish density over the past half-century are modest relative to concurrent changes in benthic cover on Caribbean reefs. However, the recent significant decline in overall fish abundance and its consistency across several trophic groups and among both fished and nonfished species indicate that Caribbean fishes have begun to respond negatively to habitat degradation.

Managing dive tourism for the sustainable use of coral reefs: validating diver perceptions of attractive site features.

It has been argued that strategies to manage natural areas important for tourism and recreation should integrate an understanding of tourist preferences for specific natural features. However, the accuracy of tourist recalled perceptions of environmental attributes, which are usually derived from post hoc surveys and used to establish management priorities, is currently unmeasured. We tested the validity of the relationship between tourist-stated preferences and actual condition of coral reefs around the Caribbean island of Bonaire. Using standardized questionnaires, we asked 200 divers to select their most and least favorite dive sites and the attributes that contributed to that selection. We also carried out ecological surveys at 76 of the 81 dives sites around the island to assess the actual conditions of the attributes indicated as important for site selection. Fish- and coral-related attributes were key features affecting dive enjoyment. In general, divers appeared to be able to perceive differences between sites in the true condition of biological attributes such as fish species richness, total number of fish schools, live coral cover, coral species richness, and reef structural complexity, although men and women divers differed in their ability to perceive/recall some of the attributes. Perceived differences in environmental attributes, such as surface conditions, underwater current, and the likelihood of encountering rare fish and sea turtles, were not empirically validated. The fact that divers perceive correctly differences in the condition of some of the key biological attributes that affect dive enjoyment reinforces the need to maintain overall reef condition at satisfactory levels. However, variation in accuracy of perceptions owing to demographic factors and attribute type suggests the need for caution when using public perceptions to develop environmental management strategies, particularly for coral reefs.

Opposing forces of aerosol cooling and El Nino drive coral bleaching on Caribbean reefs.

Bleaching of corals as a result of elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) is rapidly becoming a primary source of stress for reefs globally; the scale and extent of this threat will depend on how the drivers of SST interact to influence bleaching patterns. We demonstrate how the opposing forces of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and levels of atmospheric aerosols drive regional-scale patterns of coral bleaching across the Caribbean. When aerosol levels are low, bleaching is largely determined by El Niño strength, but high aerosol levels mitigate the effects of a severe El Niño. High aerosol levels, resulting principally from recent volcanic activity, have thus protected Caribbean reefs from more frequent widespread bleaching events but cannot be relied on to provide similar protection in the future.

Census error and the detection of density dependence.

1. Studies aiming to identify the prevalence and nature of density dependence in ecological populations have often used statistical analysis of ecological time-series of population counts. Such time-series are also being used increasingly to parameterize models that may be used in population management. 2. If time-series contain measurement errors, tests that rely on detecting a negative relationship between log population change and population size are biased and prone to spuriously detecting density dependence (Type I error). This is because the measurement error in density for a given year appears in the corresponding change in population density, with equal magnitude but opposite sign. 3. This effect introduces bias that may invalidate comparisons of ecological data with density-independent time-series. Unless census error can be accounted for, time-series may appear to show strongly density-dependent dynamics, even though the density-dependent signal may in reality be weak or absent. 4. We distinguish two forms of census error, both of which have serious consequences for detecting density dependence. 5. First, estimates of population density are based rarely on exact counts, but on samples. Hence there exists sampling error, with the level of error depending on the method employed and the number of replicates on which the population estimate is based. 6. Secondly, the group of organisms measured is often not a truly self-contained population, but part of a wider ecological population, defined in terms of location or behaviour. Consequently, the subpopulation studied may effectively be a sample of the population and spurious density dependence may be detected in the dynamics of a single subpopulation. In this case, density dependence is detected erroneously, even if numbers within the subpopulation are censused without sampling error. 7. In order to illustrate how process variation and measurement error may be distinguished we review data sets (counts of numbers of birds by single observers) for which both census error and long-term variance in population density can be estimated. 8. Tests for density dependence need to obviate the problem that measured population sizes are typically estimates rather than exact counts. It is possible that in some cases it may be possible to test for density dependence in the presence of unknown levels of census error, for example by uncovering nonlinearities in the density response. However, it seems likely that these may lack power compared with analyses that are able to explicitly include census error and we review some recently developed methods.

Characterising spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase across the northern range boundary of the annual grass Vulpia fasciculata.

Understanding the factors that influence plant distributions is a considerable challenge for ecologists in the face of environmental change. Here, we quantify spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase of the annual grass Vulpia fasciculata. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that the northern range boundary is associated with finite rates of population increase of less than one. Seeds of three ecotypes of the annual grass V. fasciculata were introduced annually across a range of sites in Great Britain both within (11) and to the north (4) of its current range boundary in each of 4 years. Populations failed to establish at 17% of target sites due to disturbance. At the remaining target sites, the finite rate of population increase, lambda, varied from 0.06 to 33.3 with a geometric mean of 1.88. Of the total variance in the rate of population growth, site and year effects accounted independently for 40% of the variation and in interaction for 50%; ecotype accounted for less than 5% of the variation. Variation in the weather between sites and years had little impact on plant performance, and there was no indication that the rate of population growth was lower to the north of the current range boundary. We conclude that current climatic conditions on the coast of Great Britain are not limiting the distribution of V. fasciculata and that seeds from across its current range have roughly equivalent colonising potential.

Demographic threats to the sustainability of Brazil nut exploitation.

A comparative analysis of 23 populations of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) across the Brazilian, Peruvian, and Bolivian Amazon shows that the history and intensity of Brazil nut exploitation are major determinants of population size structure. Populations subjected to persistent levels of harvest lack juvenile trees less than 60 centimeters in diameter at breast height; only populations with a history of either light or recent exploitation contain large numbers of juvenile trees. A harvesting model confirms that intensive exploitation levels over the past century are such that juvenile recruitment is insufficient to maintain populations over the long term. Without management, intensively harvested populations will succumb to a process of senescence and demographic collapse, threatening this cornerstone of the Amazonian extractive economy.

The theory and application of plant competition models: an agronomic perspective.

Many studies of plant competition have been directed towards understanding how plants respond to density in monocultures and how the presence of weeds affects yield in crops. In this Botanical Briefing, the development and current understanding of plant competition is reviewed, with particular emphasis being placed on the theory of plant competition and the development and application of mathematical models to crop-weed competition and the dynamics of weeds in crops. By consolidating the results of past research in this manner, it is hoped to offer a context in which researchers can consider the potential directions for future research in competition studies and its application to integrated weed management.

Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals.

We report a massive region-wide decline of corals across the entire Caribbean basin, with the average hard coral cover on reefs being reduced by 80%, from about 50% to 10% cover, in three decades. Our meta-analysis shows that patterns of change in coral cover are variable across time periods but largely consistent across subregions, suggesting that local causes have operated with some degree of synchrony on a region-wide scale. Although the rate of coral loss has slowed in the past decade compared to the 1980s, significant declines are persisting. The ability of Caribbean coral reefs to cope with future local and global environmental change may be irretrievably compromised.

Aggregative responses of brent geese on salt marsh and their impact on plant community dynamics.

The aggregative responses and habitat preferences of a generalist herbivore, the dark-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla bernicla, feeding on salt marshes are examined in relation to vegetation community characteristics and the abundances of individual plant species. In the autumn, feeding was strongly concentrated on the low marsh, which had the highest biomass of the preferred food plant, Salicornia europaea. There was a strong aggregative response of the geese to the abundance of S. europaea. A decline in the availability of S. europaea led to an increase in the pattern of aggregation in relation to the two other major food plants on the low marsh, Aster tripolium and Puccinellia maritima. The availability of these food plants, however, reached critically low levels in mid-winter and the geese abandoned the low marsh for the high marsh. Within the high marsh, the plant communities selected tended to be dominated by the inedible species Limonium vulgare. The food plants selected were P. maritima in the winter and P. maritima and Triglochinmaritimum in the spring. On the high marsh, aggregative responses were shown to both P. maritima and T. maritimum, but in both cases, aggregation increased up to a critical level of biomass, and then declined. The prevention of grazing with exclosures for 3 years led to an increase in the abundance of P. maritima on both high and low marshes. This change was slight on high marsh but pronounced on low marsh, where S. europaea showed a decrease in abundance in the exclosures over this time. The implications of the aggregative responses for the population dynamics of P. maritima and S. europaea are discussed.