Climate change, the environment, and rhinologic disease.

BACKGROUND: The escalating negative impact of climate change on our environment has the potential to result in significant morbidity of rhinologic diseases. METHODS: Evidence based review of examples of rhinologic diseases including allergic and nonallergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis, and allergic fungal rhinosinusitis was performed. RESULTS: The lower socioeconomic population, including historically oppressed groups, will be disproportionately affected. CONCLUSIONS: We need a systematic approach to improve healthcare database infrastructure and funding to promote diverse scientific collaboration to address these healthcare needs.

Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Pycnocline.

Ocean ventilation is the transfer of tracers and young water from the surface down into the ocean interior. The tracers that can be transported to depth include anthropogenic heat and carbon, both of which are critical to understanding future climate trajectories. Ventilation occurs in both high- and midlatitude regions, but it is the southern midlatitudes that are responsible for the largest fraction of anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake; such Southern Ocean ventilation is the focus of this review. Southern Ocean ventilation occurs through a chain of interconnected mechanisms, including the zonally averaged meridional overturning circulation, localized subduction, eddy-driven mixing along isopycnals, and lateral transport by subtropical gyres. To unravel the complex pathways of ventilation and reconcile conflicting results, here we assess the relative contribution of each of thesemechanisms, emphasizing the three-dimensional and temporally varying nature of the ventilation of the Southern Ocean pycnocline. We conclude that Southern Ocean ventilation depends on multiple processes and that simplified frameworks that explain ventilation changes through a single process are insufficient.

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions.

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000-2015 and show that the intensity of the urban heat island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing urban heat island effect.

Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi.

Nairobi, Kenya exhibits a wide variety of micro-climates and heterogeneous surfaces. Paved roads and high-rise buildings interspersed with low vegetation typify the central business district, while large neighborhoods of informal settlements or "slums" are characterized by dense, tin housing, little vegetation, and limited access to public utilities and services. To investigate how heat varies within Nairobi, we deployed a high density observation network in 2015/2016 to examine summertime temperature and humidity. We show how temperature, humidity and heat index differ in several informal settlements, including in Kibera, the largest slum neighborhood in Africa, and find that temperature and a thermal comfort index known colloquially as the heat index regularly exceed measurements at the Dagoretti observation station by several degrees Celsius. These temperatures are within the range of temperatures previously associated with mortality increases of several percent in youth and elderly populations in informal settlements. We relate these changes to surface properties such as satellite-derived albedo, vegetation indices, and elevation.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5).

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.

Changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans over the past few decades are examined using ocean measurements of CFC-12 and model simulations. Analysis of CFC-12 measurements made between the late 1980s and late 2000s reveal large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation, with a decrease in the age of subtropical Subantarctic Mode Waters (SAMW) and an increase in the age of Circumpolar Deep Waters. The decrease in SAMW age is consistent with the observed increase in wind stress curl and strength of the subtropical gyres over the same period. A decrease in the age of SAMW is also found in Community Climate System Model version 4 perturbation experiments where the zonal wind stress is increased. This decrease is due to both more rapid transport along isopycnals and the movement of the isopycnals. These results indicate that the intensification of surface winds in the Southern Hemisphere has caused large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.

Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study.

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4°C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

Recent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.

Surface westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have intensified over the past few decades, primarily in response to the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, and there is intense debate on the impact of this on the ocean's circulation and uptake and redistribution of atmospheric gases. We used measurements of chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) made in the southern oceans in the early 1990s and mid- to late 2000s to examine changes in ocean ventilation. Our analysis of the CFC-12 data reveals a decrease in the age of subtropical subantarctic mode waters and an increase in the age of circumpolar deep waters, suggesting that the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole has caused large-scale coherent changes in the ventilation of the southern oceans.

An estimate of anthropogenic CO2 inventory from decadal changes in oceanic carbon content.

Increased knowledge of the present global carbon cycle is important for our ability to understand and to predict the future carbon cycle and global climate. Approximately half of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning is stored in the ocean, although distribution and regional fluxes of the ocean sink are debated. Estimates of anthropogenic carbon (C(ant)) in the oceans remain prone to error arising from (i) a need to estimate preindustrial reference concentrations of carbon for different oceanic regions, and (ii) differing behavior of transient ocean tracers used to infer C(ant). We introduce an empirical approach to estimate C(ant) that circumvents both problems by using measurement of the decadal change of ocean carbon concentrations and the exponential nature of the atmospheric C(ant) increase. In contrast to prior approaches, the results are independent of tracer data but are shown to be qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with tracer-derived estimates. The approach reveals more C(ant) in the deep ocean than prior studies; with possible implications for future carbon uptake and deep ocean carbonate dissolution. Our results suggest that this approachs applied on the unprecedented global data archive provides a means of estimating the C(ant) for large parts of the world's ocean.