Factors Responsible for Changes in Leafroller (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Species Composition on Orchards and Vineyards 1974-2015, in Hawke's Bay, New Zealand.

Leafrollers are polyphagous pests whose larvae damage fruit and cause market access problems for fruit crops exported from New Zealand. Leafroller larvae and pupae were collected mainly from four fruit crops, but also from hedges, ornamental trees, and understory weeds in orchards and vineyards of Hawke's Bay, a major fruit production region. Samples were collected from 1974 to 1977 and 1993 to 2015. This timespan was divided into periods that broadly coincided with broad-spectrum insecticide management, the transition to selective insecticides, and the full implementation of integrated fruit production (IFP) programs in apples, grapes, and stone fruit. Eight tortricid species were identified, but the accidentally introduced Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and two native species, Ctenopseustis obliquana (Walker) and Planotortrix octo Dugdale, comprised 95% of the samples. The proportions of these three species varied according to interactions between four factors: pest management regime, collection period, property location, and host plant. In the 1970s under broad-spectrum insecticide programs, the native species dominated on all hosts. By the mid-late 1990s when IFP was introduced, all the main leafroller species were in decline. However, E. postvittana declined to a lesser extent than the two native species, and consequently, it became relatively more prominent. This change in species composition was delayed in two districts where localized cases of organophosphate insecticide resistance occurred in C. obliquana and P. octo. From 2000 onwards, E. postvittana was the dominant species in all districts and on all hosts, albeit with a much-reduced pest status, except on hedges and ornamental trees where C. obliquana prevailed.

Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Past, Present, and Future of Integrated Control of Apple Pests: The New Zealand Experience.

This review describes the New Zealand apple industry's progression from 1960s integrated pest control research to today's comprehensive integrated pest management system. With the exception of integrated mite control implemented during the 1980s, pest control on apple crops was dominated by intensive organophosphate insecticide regimes to control tortricid leafrollers. Multiple pest resistances to these insecticides by the 1990s, and increasing consumer demand for lower pesticide residues on fruit, led to the implementation of integrated fruit production. This substantially eliminated organophosphate insecticide use by 2001, replacing it with pest monitoring systems, threshold-based selective insecticides, and biological control. More recently, new demands for ultralow-residue fruit have increased the adoption of mating disruption and use of biological insecticides. Widespread adoption of selective pest management has substantially reduced the status of previously important pests, including leafrollers, mealybugs, leafhoppers, and mites for improved phytosanitary performance, and contributed to major reductions in total insecticide use.

Lattice Boltzmann method for the fractional advection-diffusion equation.

Mass transport, such as movement of phosphorus in soils and solutes in rivers, is a natural phenomenon and its study plays an important role in science and engineering. It is found that there are numerous practical diffusion phenomena that do not obey the classical advection-diffusion equation (ADE). Such diffusion is called abnormal or superdiffusion, and it is well described using a fractional advection-diffusion equation (FADE). The FADE finds a wide range of applications in various areas with great potential for studying complex mass transport in real hydrological systems. However, solution to the FADE is difficult, and the existing numerical methods are complicated and inefficient. In this study, a fresh lattice Boltzmann method is developed for solving the fractional advection-diffusion equation (LabFADE). The FADE is transformed into an equation similar to an advection-diffusion equation and solved using the lattice Boltzmann method. The LabFADE has all the advantages of the conventional lattice Boltzmann method and avoids a complex solution procedure, unlike other existing numerical methods. The method has been validated through simulations of several benchmark tests: a point-source diffusion, a boundary-value problem of steady diffusion, and an initial-boundary-value problem of unsteady diffusion with the coexistence of source and sink terms. In addition, by including the effects of the skewness ß, the fractional order α, and the single relaxation time τ, the accuracy and convergence of the method have been assessed. The numerical predictions are compared with the analytical solutions, and they indicate that the method is second-order accurate. The method presented will allow the FADE to be more widely applied to complex mass transport problems in science and engineering.

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

Potential of "lure and kill" in long-term pest management and eradication of invasive species.

"Lure and kill" technology has been used for several decades in pest management and eradication of invasive species. In lure and kill, the insect pest attracted by a semiochemical lure is not "entrapped" at the source of the attractant as in mass trapping, but instead the insect is subjected to a killing agent, which eliminates affected individuals from the population after a short period. In past decades, a growing scientific literature has been published on this concept. This article provides the first review on the potential of lure and kill in long-term pest management and eradication of invasive species. We present a summary of lure and kill, either when used as a stand-alone control method or in combination with other methods. We discuss its efficacy in comparison with other control methods. Several case studies in which lure and kill has been used with the aims of long-term pest management (e.g., pink bollworm, Egyptian cotton leafworm, codling moth, apple maggot, biting flies, and bark beetles) or the eradication of invasive species (e.g., tephritid fruit flies and boll weevils) are provided. Subsequently, we identify essential knowledge required for successful lure and kill programs that include lure competitiveness with natural odor source; lure density; lure formulation and release rate; pest population density and risk of immigration; and biology and ecology of the target species. The risks associated with lure and kill, especially when used in the eradication programs, are highlighted. We comment on the cost-effectiveness of this technology and its strengths and weaknesses, and list key reasons for success and failure. We conclude that lure and kill can be highly effective in controlling small, low-density, isolated populations, and thus it has the potential to add value to long-term pest management. In the eradication of invasive species, lure and kill offers a major advantage in effectiveness by its being inverse density dependent and it provides some improvements in efficacy over related control methods. However, the inclusion of insecticides or sterilants in lure and kill formulations presents a major obstacle to public acceptance.

Potential of mass trapping for long-term pest management and eradication of invasive species.

Semiochemical-based pest management programs comprise three major approaches that are being used to provide environmentally friendly control methods of insect pests: mass trapping, "lure and kill," and mating disruption. In this article, we review the potential of mass trapping in long-term pest management as well as in the eradication of invasive species. We discuss similarities and differences between mass trapping and other two main approaches of semiochemical-based pest management programs. We highlight several study cases where mass trapping has been used either in long-term pest management [e.g., codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.); pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders); bark beetles, palm weevils, corn rootworms (Diabrotica spp.); and fruit flies] or in eradication of invasive species [e.g., gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.); and boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman). We list the critical issues that affect the efficacy of mass trapping and compare these with previously published models developed to investigate mass trapping efficacy in pest control. We conclude that mass trapping has good potential to suppress or eradicate low-density, isolated pest populations; however, its full potential in pest management has not been adequately realized and therefore encourages further research and development of this technology.

A temperature-dependent model for predicting release rates of pheromone from a polyethylene tubing dispenser.

A model was developed to describe release of two formulations of tetradecenyl acetates in Shin Etsu polyethylene tubing pheromone dispensers. Change in pheromone column length in the polyethylene tubing was modeled bydl/dt=l ... (a+bT)/dt (wherel is column length,t is time interval, andT is average temperature for that time interval). Regression of the natural log of relative change in liquid length against time interval and accumulated day degrees in orchards produced the coefficientsa andb. The model was validated by comparing predicted and actual liquid length remaining in field-aged dispensers, as well as measuring release rates by using gas chromatography. Mean daily orchard temperatures and measurement of column length of dispensers on a single date were used to accurately predict column length within 15%, after six months. Predictions of instantaneous release rate were also made from this model, and other possible model uses and limitations are discussed.

Comparison of M and N gene sequences distinguishes variation amongst equine arteritis virus isolates.

cDNA copies of the M and N genes of equine arteritis virus (EAV) isolates were synthesized by reverse transcription followed by polymerase chain reaction amplification. The cDNA was subjected to a cycle sequencing strategy using Taq polymerase, and the nucleotide and derived amino acid sequences of 10 virus isolates were compared. The M and N genes of all isolates had the same initiation and termination sites as the prototype Bucyrus strain and the encoded proteins were conserved between viruses. Comparison of nucleotide sequence homologies and phylogenetic tree analysis implied the existence of three EAV variants originating from the U.S.A. (Bucyrus), Austria (Vienna) and Switzerland (Bibuna), and suggested that RNA recombination between EAV isolates may have occurred.