Identifying transmission routes of Streptococcus pneumoniae and sources of acquisitions in high transmission communities.

Identifying the transmission sources and reservoirs of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a long-standing question for pneumococcal epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and vaccine policy. Here we use serotype to identify SP transmission and examine acquisitions (in the same household, local community, and county, or of unidentified origin) in a longitudinal cohort of children and adults from the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache American Indian Tribes. We found that adults acquire SP relatively more in the household than other age groups, and children 2-8 years old typically acquire in their own or surrounding communities. Age-specific transmission probability matrices show that transmissions within household were mostly seen from older to younger siblings. Outside the household, children most often transmit to other children in the same age group, showing age-assortative mixing behavior. We find toddlers and older children to be most involved in SP transmission and acquisition, indicating their role as key drivers of SP epidemiology. Although infants have high carriage prevalence, they do not play a central role in transmission of SP compared with toddlers and older children. Our results are relevant to inform alternative pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dosing strategies and analytic efforts to inform optimization of vaccine programs, as well as assessing the transmission dynamics of pathogens transmitted by close contact in general.

Evaluation of the indirect effects of a pneumococcal vaccine in a community-randomized study.

When a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immunized with a vaccine, reduction in secondary transmission of disease can confer significant protection to unimmunized population members. We propose a straightforward method to estimate the degree of this indirect effect of vaccination in the context of a community-randomized vaccine trial. A conditional logistic regression model that accounts for within-randomization unit correlation over time is described, which models risk of disease as a function of community-level covariates. The approach is applied to an example data set from a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine study, with study arm and immunization levels forming the covariates of interest for the investigation of indirect effects.

Design of a group-randomized Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine trial.

A group-randomized, double-masked, phase III trial of a Streptococcus pneumoniae conjugate vaccine is being conducted in American Indian populations in the southwestern United States. Approximately 9000 infants will be enrolled in the primary efficacy cohort with vaccine allocation determined by community of residence. The trial is designed to continue until 48 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease due to vaccine serotypes have accumulated. Thirty-eight geographically and socially distinct areas were randomized within blocks formed by population size and geographic location. This design affords the opportunity to capture the effects of herd immunity (indirect effects) by estimating the impact of the vaccine intervention on nonimmunized infants. Group-randomized trials have challenging design and analysis features, many of which are discussed here in the context of the first such trial designed to lead to licensure of a drug or biologic in the United States.

Estimation of the indirect effect of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine in an American Indian population.

BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal carriage studies of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and the rapid drop in Hib invasive disease in countries with widespread Hib conjugate vaccine immunization programmes for infants have indicated there may be significant indirect effects (herd immunity) associated with these vaccines. Our goal was to quantify the magnitude of these effects in an American Indian population during its early years of Hib immunization. METHODS: In a synthetic case-cohort study, we combined data from an efficacy trial, an immunization uptake records survey, and ongoing surveillance for Hib disease on the Navajo Nation from 1988 to 1992. Decline in the incidence of invasive Hib disease among children <2 years old was estimated via proportional hazards survival models as a function of individual immunization status and the proportion of immunized children in a community. RESULTS: The predominant vaccine during the study period was Hib-OMPC (92% of immunizations). The effectiveness of receipt of at least one dose was 97.2%. Compared to communities with 0-20% coverage with at least one dose, residence in communities with 20-40% and 40-60% coverage was associated with risk reductions of 56.5% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate substantial indirect effects of Hib-OMPC immunization may occur even at relatively low levels of immunization coverage. Countries that implement Hib immunization programmes may receive greater benefits at the community level than those due to the direct protection conferred to the individual through vaccination.

Postlicensure effectiveness of the Haemophilus influenzae type b polysaccharide-Neisseria meningitidis outer-membrane protein complex conjugate vaccine among Navajo children.

The incidence of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection was decreased significantly among Navajo children since the licensure of Hib conjugate vaccines, even though two lots of Hib (polyribosylribitol phosphate)-meningococcal B outer-membrane protein conjugate vaccine (PRP-OMP) widely used among the Navajo were later found to be of low immunogenicity. We measured the effectiveness of all Hib conjugate vaccines combined, PRP-OMP alone, and the PRP-OMP lots with lower-than-expected immunogenicity among Navajo infants and children. This was a matched case-control study using active, laboratory-based surveillance for the ascertainment of Navajo children 2 1/2 to 59 months of age with invasive Hib infection; 45 patients with infection and 180 control subjects were enrolled. The effectiveness of one, two, and three doses, respectively, of all Hib conjugate vaccines combined was 96% (95% confidence interval (CI) 65%, 99%), 99% (95% CI, 69%, 100%), and 99% (95% CI - 57%, 100%). The effectiveness of one or more doses of PRP-OMP was 95% (95% CI, 66%, 99%). The effectiveness of a single dose of the lots of lower-than-expected immunogenicity was 89% (95% CI, -8%, 99%). The Hib conjugate vaccine coverage increased from 49% during 1991 to 94% during 1992; no control subjects younger than 18 months of age were enrolled during 1993. The occurrence of invasive Hib infections in this population after licensure of Hib conjugate vaccines was the result of gradual vaccine uptake, not poor vaccine effectiveness. The use of PRP-OMP has been highly effective despite concerns about the immunogenicity of several lots.