Prognostic value of number and site of calcified coronary lesions compared with the total score.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of the number and sites of calcified coronary lesions and to compare the accuracy of number of calcified lesions with the extent of total calcium score. BACKGROUND: There is a strong relationship between mortality and total coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. It is not known whether the number of calcified lesions or their location influences outcome. METHODS: A total of 14,759 asymptomatic patients were referred for evaluation of CAC scanning using electron beam tomography. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate time to all-cause mortality at, on average, 6.8 years (n = 281). RESULTS: Risk-adjusted annual mortality was 0.19% (95% confidence interval 0.18% to 0.21%) for patients without any calcified lesions. For patients with >20 lesions, annual risk-adjusted mortality exceeded 2% per year. Mortality rates were significantly higher for left main lesions as compared to other coronary arteries with annual mortality rates of 1.3%, 2.1%, 9.2%, and 13.6% for 1 to 2, 3 to 5, and > or =6 lesions, respectively (p < 0.0001). For left main CAC scores of 0 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 399, and 400 to 999, annual risk-adjusted mortality was 0.33%, 0.81%, 1.73%, and 7.71%, respectively (p < 0.0001). All 4 patients with a CAC score of > or =1,000 in the left main died during follow-up. However, patients with more frequent calcified lesions also had higher CAC scores. Specifically, > or =81% of patients with >10 calcified lesions also had a CAC score > or =100. With exception, for patients with CAC scores > or =1,000, annual mortality was dramatically higher at 3.0% to 4.5% for those with 1 to 5 calcified lesions as compared with 1.1% to 2.0% for those with 6 or more lesions (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We report that mortality rates increased proportionally with the number of calcified lesions. Although predictive information is contained in the number of calcified lesions, its added statistical value is minimal. With exception, patients with frequent lesions in the left main or those with a few large calcified lesions have a particularly high mortality risk.

Ethnic differences in the prognostic value of coronary artery calcification for all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC), a known marker of subclinical atherosclerosis, in a large, ethnically diverse cohort of 14,812 patients for the prediction of all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND: Disparities in case fatality rates for heart disease among ethnic groups are well known. In 2001, rates of death from heart disease were 30% higher among African Americans (AA) than non-Hispanic whites (NHW). Some of this variability may be due to differing pathophysiological mechanisms and effects of underlying atherosclerosis. METHODS: Ten-year death rates from all causes (total deaths = 505) were compared using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models in AA (n = 637), Hispanic (HS, n = 1,334), Asian (AS, n = 1,065), and NHW (n = 11,776) populations. RESULTS: Ethnic minority patients were generally younger (0.3 to 4 years), more often persons with diabetes (p < 0.0001), hypertensive (p < 0.0001), and female (p < 0.0001). The prevalence of CAC scores > or =100 was highest in NHW (31%) and lowest for HS (18%) (p < 0.0001). Overall survival was 96%, 93%, and 92% for AS, NHW, and HS, respectively, as compared with 83% for AA (p < 0.0001). When comparing prognosis by CAC scores in ethnic minorities as compared with NHW, relative risk ratios were highest for AA with CAC scores > or =400 exceeding 16.1 (p < 0.0001). Hispanics with CAC scores > or =400 had relative risk ratios from 7.9 to 9.0, whereas AS with CAC scores > or =1,000 had relative risk ratios 6.6-fold higher than NHW (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with population evidence, AA with increasing burden of subclinical coronary artery disease were the highest-risk ethnic minority population. These data support a growing body of evidence noting substantial differences in cardiovascular risk by ethnicity.

Long-term prognosis associated with coronary calcification: observations from a registry of 25,253 patients.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjusted multivariable models that include risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores measured with electron-beam tomography in asymptomatic patients for the prediction of all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND: Several smaller studies have documented the efficacy of CAC testing for assessment of cardiovascular risk. Larger studies with longer follow-up will lend strength to the hypothesis that CAC testing will improve outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and safety of primary prevention efforts. METHODS: We used an observational outcome study of a cohort of 25,253 consecutive, asymptomatic individuals referred by their primary physician for CAC scanning to assess cardiovascular risk. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for coronary disease and CAC scores. RESULTS: The frequency of CAC scores was 44%, 14%, 20%, 13%, 6%, and 4% for scores of 0, 1 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 400, 401 to 1,000, and >1,000, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 6.8 +/- 3 years, the death rate was 2% (510 deaths). The CAC was an independent predictor of mortality in a multivariable model controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, and cardiac risk factors (model chi-square = 2,017, p < 0.0001). The addition of CAC to traditional risk factors increased the concordance index significantly (0.61 for risk factors vs. 0.81 for the CAC score, p < 0.0001). Risk-adjusted relative risk ratios for CAC were 2.2-, 4.5-, 6.4-, 9.2-, 10.4-, and 12.5-fold for scores of 11 to 100, 101 to 299, 300 to 399, 400 to 699, 700 to 999, and >1,000, respectively (p < 0.0001), when compared with a score of 0. Ten-year survival (after adjustment for risk factors, including age) was 99.4% for a CAC score of 0 and worsened to 87.8% for a score of >1,000 (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This large observational data series shows that CAC provides independent incremental information in addition to traditional risk factors in the prediction of all-cause mortality.