The experiences of children, adolescents and their parents in isolation in a Danish paediatric unit: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on adult patients in hospital isolation show that it can be highly stressful, with some patients affected by depression and anxiety. This study aimed to explore how children, adolescents, and their parents perceive isolation and how it affects them physically, psychologically, and socially. METHODS: A qualitative approach was used comprising semi-structured interviews, participant observations, and field notes. FINDINGS: Two adolescents and 13 parents were selected to participate in the interviews, while three children and their parents participated in participant observation. Besides the participant observation one of the adolescents and one parent also participated in interviews. The children and adolescents were isolated at the hospital due to bacterial or viral infections or were carriers of an antibiotic resistant bacteria. After performing a thematic analysis to identify patterns in the data, four themes emerged: 1. Differing information provided about bacteria, virus, hygiene precautions, and isolation, 2. Dependence on healthcare professionals, 3. Impact of the environment, and 4. Coping and psychological reactions on isolation. DISCUSSION: The participants conveyed positive and negative experiences and emotions during isolation in relation to daily activities, psychological well-being, and social life. Adolescents and their parents requested clear comprehensible and consistent information on isolation from healthcare professionals. APPLICATION TO PRACTICE: To improve hospital isolation for children, adolescents, and their parents, well-written information on isolation and hygiene precautions is crucial, as are evolving strategies to minimise social exclusion and the emotional impact of isolation.

Explaining the deprivation gap in COVID-19 mortality rates: A decomposition analysis of geographical inequalities in England.

One of the most consistent and worrying features of the COVID-19 pandemic globally has been the disproportionate burden of the epidemic in the most deprived areas. Most of the literature so far though has focused on estimating the extent of these inequalities. There has been much less attention paid to exploring the main pathways underpinning them. In this study, we employ the syndemic pandemic theoretical framework and apply novel decomposition methods to investigate the proportion of the COVID-19 mortality gap by area-level deprivation in England during the first wave of the pandemic (January to July 2020) was accounted for by pre-existing inequalities in the compositional and contextual characteristics of place. We use a decomposition approach to explicitly quantify the independent contribution of four inequalities pathways (vulnerability, susceptibility, exposure and transmission) in explaining the more severe COVID-19 outcomes in the most deprived local authorities compared to the rest. We find that inequalities in transmission (73%) and in vulnerability (49%) factors explained the highest proportion of mortality by deprivation. Our results suggest that public health agencies need to develop short- and long-term strategies to alleviate these underlying inequalities in order to alleviate the more severe impacts on the most vulnerable communities.

Inequalities in the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ecological study of inequalities in mortality in the first wave and the effects of the first national lockdown in England.

OBJECTIVES: To examine how ecological inequalities in COVID-19 mortality rates evolved in England, and whether the first national lockdown impacted them. This analysis aimed to provide evidence for important lessons to inform public health planning to reduce inequalities in any future pandemics. DESIGN: Longitudinal ecological study. SETTING: 307 lower-tier local authorities in England. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Age-standardised COVID-19 mortality rates by local authority, regressed on Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and relevant epidemic dynamics. RESULTS: Local authorities that started recording COVID-19 deaths earlier were more deprived, and more deprived authorities saw faster increases in their death rates. By 6 April 2020 (week 15, the earliest time that the 23 March lockdown could have begun affecting death rates) the cumulative death rate in local authorities in the two most deprived deciles of IMD was 54% higher than the rate in the two least deprived deciles. By 4 July 2020 (week 27), this gap had narrowed to 29%. Thus, inequalities in mortality rates by decile of deprivation persisted throughout the first wave, but reduced during the lockdown. CONCLUSIONS: This study found significant differences in the dynamics of COVID-19 mortality at the local authority level, resulting in inequalities in cumulative mortality rates during the first wave of the pandemic. The first lockdown in England was fairly strict-and the study found that it particularly benefited those living in more deprived local authorities. Care should be taken to implement lockdowns early enough, in the right places-and at a sufficiently strict level-to maximally benefit all communities, and reduce inequalities.

Static Socio-Ecological COVID-19 Vulnerability Index and Vaccine Hesitancy Index for England.

BACKGROUND: Population characteristics can be used to infer vulnerability of communities to COVID-19, or to the likelihood of high levels of vaccine hesitancy. Communities harder hit by the virus, or at risk of being so, stand to benefit from greater resource allocation than their population size alone would suggest. This study reports a simple but efficacious method of ranking small areas of England by relative characteristics that are linked with COVID-19 vulnerability and vaccine hesitancy. METHODS: Publicly available data on a range of characteristics previously linked with either poor COVID-19 outcomes or vaccine hesitancy were collated for all Middle Super Output Areas of England (MSOA, n=6790, excluding Isles of Scilly), scaled and combined into two numeric indices. Multivariable linear regression was used to build a parsimonious model of vulnerability (static socio-ecological vulnerability index, SEVI) in 60% of MSOAs, and retained variables were used to construct two simple indices. Assuming a monotonic relationship between indices and outcomes, Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the SEVI and cumulative COVID-19 case rates at MSOA level in the remaining 40% of MSOAs over periods both during and out with national lockdowns. Similarly, a novel vaccine hesitancy index (VHI) was constructed using population characteristics aligned with factors identified by an Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey analysis. The relationship between the VHI and vaccine coverage in people aged 12+years (as of 2021-06-24) was determined using Spearman correlation. The indices were split into quintiles, and MSOAs within the highest vulnerability and vaccine hesitancy quintiles were mapped. FINDINGS: The SEVI showed a moderate to strong relationship with case rates in the validation dataset across the whole study period, and for every intervening period studied except early in the pandemic when testing was highly selective. The SEVI was more strongly correlated with case rates than any of its domains (rs 0·59 95% CI 0.57-0.62) and outperformed an existing MSOA-level vulnerability index. The VHI was significantly negatively correlated with COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the validation data at the time of writing (rs -0·43 95% CI -0·46 to -0·41). London had the largest number and proportion of MSOAs in quintile 5 (most vulnerable/hesitant) of SEVI and VHI concurrently. INTERPRETATION: The indices presented offer an efficacious way of identifying geographical disparities in COVID-19 risk, thus helping focus resources according to need. FUNDING: Funder: Integrated Covid Hub North East. AWARD NUMBER: n/a. GRANT RECIPIENT: Fiona Matthews.

Lipoprotein(a) and cardiovascular disease: prediction, attributable risk fraction, and estimating benefits from novel interventions.

AIMS: To investigate the population attributable fraction due to elevated lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)) and the utility of measuring Lp(a) in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 413 734 participants from UK Biobank, associations of serum Lp(a) with composite fatal/non-fatal CVD (n = 10 066 events), fatal CVD (n = 3247), coronary heart disease (CHD; n = 18 292), peripheral vascular disease (PVD; n = 2716), and aortic stenosis (n = 901) were compared using Cox models. Median Lp(a) was 19.7 nmol/L (interquartile interval 7.6-75.3 nmol/L). About 20.8% had Lp(a) values >100 nmol/L; 9.2% had values >175 nmol/L. After adjustment for classical risk factors, 1 SD increment in log Lp(a) was associated with a hazard ratio for fatal/non-fatal CVD of 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.15]. Similar associations were observed with fatal CVD, CHD, PVD, and aortic stenosis. Adding Lp(a) to a prediction model containing traditional CVD risk factors in a primary prevention group improved the C-index by +0.0017 (95% CI 0.0008-0.0026). In the whole cohort, Lp(a) above 100 nmol/L was associated with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 5.8% (95% CI 4.9-6.7%), and for Lp(a) above 175 nmol/L the PAF was 3.0% (2.4-3.6%). Assuming causality and an achieved Lp(a) reduction of 80%, an ongoing trial to lower Lp(a) in patients with CVD and Lp(a) above 175 nmol/L may reduce CVD risk by 20.0% and CHD by 24.4%. Similar benefits were also modelled in the whole cohort, regardless of baseline CVD. CONCLUSION: Population screening for elevated Lp(a) may help to predict CVD and target Lp(a) lowering drugs, if such drugs prove efficacious, to those with markedly elevated levels.

Multimorbidity and the risk of major adverse kidney events: findings from the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity [the presence of two or more long-term conditions (LTCs)] is associated with a heightened risk of mortality, but little is known about its relationship with the risk of kidney events. METHODS: Associations between multimorbidity and major adverse kidney events [MAKE: the need for long-term kidney replacement therapy, doubling of serum creatinine, fall of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or 30% decline in eGFR] were studied in 68 505 participants from the UK Biobank cohort. Participants were enrolled in the study between 2006 and 2010. Associations between LTC counts and MAKE were tested using survival analyses accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 12.0 years, 2963 participants had MAKE. There were associations between LTC count categories and the risk of MAKE [one LTC adjusted subhazard ratio (sHR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.45; two LTCs sHR = 1.74 (95% CI 1.55-1.96); and three or more LTCs sHR = 2.41 (95% CI 2.14-2.71)]. This finding was more pronounced when only cardiometabolic LTCs were considered [one LTC sHR = 1.58 (95% CI 1.45-1.73); two LTCs sHR = 3.17 (95% CI 2.80-3.59); and three or more LTCs sHR = 5.24 (95% CI 4.34-6.33)]. Combinations of LTCs associated with MAKE were identified. Diabetes, hypertension and coronary heart disease featured most commonly in high-risk combinations. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity, and in particular cardiometabolic multimorbidity, is a risk factor for MAKE. Future research should study groups of patients who are at high risk of progressive kidney disease based on the number and type of LTCs.

Can vaccination roll-out be more equitable if population risk is taken into account?

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination in many countries, including England, has been prioritised primarily by age. However, people of the same age can have very different health statuses. Frailty is a commonly used metric of health and has been found to be more strongly associated with mortality than age among COVID-19 inpatients. METHODS: We compared the number of first vaccine doses administered across the 135 NHS Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) of England to both the over 50 population and the estimated frail population in each area. Area-based frailty estimates were generated using the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (ELSA), a national survey of older people. We also compared the number of doses to the number of people with other risk factors associated with COVID-19: atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, learning disabilities, obesity and smoking status. RESULTS: We estimate that after 79 days of the vaccine program, across all Clinical Commissioning Group areas, the number of people who received a first vaccine per frail person ranged from 4.4 (95% CI 4.0-4.8) and 20.1 (95% CI 18.3-21.9). The prevalences of other risk factors were also poorly associated with the prevalence of vaccination across England. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with age-based priority created area-based inequities in the number of doses administered relative to the number of people who are frail or have other risk factors associated with COVID-19. As frailty has previously been found to be more strongly associated with mortality than age for COVID-19 inpatients, an age-based priority system may increase the risk of mortality in some areas during the vaccine roll-out period. Authorities planning COVID-19 vaccination programmes should consider the disadvantages of an age-based priority system.

What are the consequences of caring for older people and what interventions are effective for supporting unpaid carers? A rapid review of systematic reviews.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and map evidence about the consequences of unpaid caring for all carers of older people, and effective interventions to support this carer population. DESIGN: A rapid review of systematic reviews, focused on the consequences for carers of unpaid caring for older people, and interventions to support this heterogeneous group of carers. Reviews of carers of all ages were eligible, with any outcome measures relating to carers' health, and social and financial well-being. Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, PsycInfo and Epistemonikos (January 2000 to January 2020). Records were screened, and included systematic reviews were quality appraised. Summary data were extracted and a narrative synthesis produced. RESULTS: Twelve systematic reviews reporting evidence about the consequences of caring for carers (n=6) and assessing the effectiveness of carer interventions (n=6) were included. The review evidence typically focused on mental health outcomes, with little information identified about carers' physical, social and financial well-being. Clear estimates of the prevalence and severity of carer outcomes, and how these differ between carers and non-carers, were absent. A range of interventions were identified, but there was no strong evidence of effectiveness. In some studies, the choice of outcome measure may underestimate the full impact of an intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence fails to fully quantify the impacts that caring for older people has on carers' health and well-being. Information on social patterning of the consequences of caring is absent. Systematic measurement of a broad range of outcomes, with comparison to the general population, is needed to better understand the true consequences of caring. Classification of unpaid caring as a social determinant of health could be an effective lever to bring greater focus and support to this population. Further work is needed to develop and identify suitable interventions in order to support evidence-based policymaking and practice.

Ethnic differences in prevalence of actionable HbA1c levels in UK Biobank: implications for screening.

INTRODUCTION: Early detection and treatment of diabetes as well as its prevention help lessen longer-term complications. We determined the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the UK Biobank and standardized the results to the UK general population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed baseline UK Biobank data on plasma glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to compare the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in white, South Asian, black, and Chinese participants. The overall and ethnic-specific results were standardized to the UK general population aged 40-70 years of age. RESULTS: Within the UK Biobank, the overall crude prevalence was 3.6% for pre-diabetes, 0.8% for undiagnosed diabetes, and 4.4% for either. Following standardization to the UK general population, the results were similar at 3.8%, 0.8%, and 4.7%, respectively. Crude prevalence was much higher in South Asian (11.0% pre-diabetes; 3.6% undiagnosed diabetes; 14.6% either) or black (13.8% pre-diabetes; 3.0% undiagnosed diabetes; 16.8% either) participants. Only six middle-aged or old-aged South Asian individuals or seven black would need to be tested to identify an HbA1c result that merits action. CONCLUSIONS: Single-stage population screening for pre-diabetes or undiagnosed diabetes in middle-old or old-aged South Asian and black individuals using HbA1c could be efficient and should be considered.

Derivation and Validation of a 10-Year Risk Score for Symptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Cohort Study of Nearly 500 000 Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA. METHODS: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147]). CONCLUSIONS: In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

Trends in life expectancy and healthy life years at birth and age 65 in the UK, 2008-2016, and other countries of the EU28: An observational cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: As society ages, promoting the health of the extra years of life is of paramount importance for health, social care and pension provision. Increases in life expectancy in the UK and elsewhere have slowed in recent years, but the reasons for this are unclear. No formal comparison of trends in healthy life years between the UK and the other countries of the EU28 in recent times has been published. These countries are geographically proximate, and share many social, cultural and demographic properties, making them interesting and useful comparators, especially as the UK prepared to leave the European Union in 2020. METHODS: We calculated sex-specific healthy life years (HLY), unhealthy life years (ULY), mild and severe ULY at birth and age 65 using life tables and age-specific prevalence of activity limitation amongst the EU28 between 2008 and 2016 from EuroHex. Trends in life expectancy, HLY, ULY and proportion of life spent healthy (HLY%) were compared. We then decomposed HLY temporal changes into relative effects of changes in healthy life and mortality, by age group. FINDINGS: Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011. Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. HLY at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU28 countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both sexes. The reduction in HLY at birth in the UK was mainly attributable to increases in unhealthy life in younger age groups. INTERPRETATION: The UK's performance relative to the other countries of the EU28 was poor after 2011, combining static life expectancy and reductions in healthy life years. These trends suggest that the UK government's Ageing Society Grand Challenge (to increase the healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035) will be difficult to attain. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme conducted through the NIHR Older People and Frailty Policy Research Unit, PR-PRU-1217-21502. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Author Correction: Glomerular filtration rate by differing measures, albuminuria and prediction of cardiovascular disease, mortality and end-stage kidney disease.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Association Between Walking Pace and Stroke Incidence: Findings From the UK Biobank Prospective Cohort Study.

Background and Purpose- Stroke incidence in younger and middle-aged people is growing. Despite this, its associations in this subset of the stroke population are unknown, and prevention strategies are not tailored to meet their needs. This study examined the association between self-reported walking pace and incident stroke. Methods- Data from the UK Biobank were used in a prospective population-based study. Three hundred and sixty-three thousand, one hundred and thirty-seven participants aged 37 to 73 years (52% women) were recruited. The associations of self-reported walking pace with stroke incidence over follow-up were investigated using Cox proportional-hazard models. Results- Among 363,137 participants, 2705 (0.7%) participants developed a fatal or nonfatal stroke event over the mean follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range, 5.4-6.7). Slow walking pace was associated with a higher hazard for stroke incidence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.45 [95% CI, 1.26-1.66]; P<0.0001). Stroke incidence was not associated with walking pace among people <65 years of age. However, slow walking pace was associated with a higher risk of stroke among participants aged ≥65 years (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.17-1.72]; P<0.0001). A higher risk for stroke was observed on those with middle (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.01-1.63]; P=0.039) and higher (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.05-1.69]; P=0.012) deprivation levels but not in the least deprived individuals. Similarly, overweight (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.04-1.63]; P=0.019) and obese (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09-1.63]; P=0.004) but not normal-weight individuals had a higher risk of stroke incidence. Conclusions- Slow walking pace was associated with a higher risk of stroke among participants over 64 years of age in this population-based cohort study. The addition of the measurement of self-reported walking pace to primary care or public health clinical consultations may be a useful screening tool for stroke risk.

Grip Strength and Walking Pace and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in 406,834 UK Biobank Participants.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the addition of grip strength and/or self-reported walking pace to established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores improves their predictive abilities. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 406,834 participants from the UK Biobank, with baseline measurements between March 13, 2006, and October 1, 2010, without CVD at baseline were included in this study. Associations of grip strength and walking pace with CVD outcomes were investigated using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors (as included in established risk scores), and predictive utility was determined by changes in C-index and categorical net reclassification index. RESULTS: Over a median of 8.87 years of follow-up (interquartile range 3, 8.25-9.47 years), there were 7274 composite fatal/nonfatal events (on the basis of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association [ACC/AHA] outcome) and 1955 fatal events (on the basis of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] risk score). Both grip strength and walking pace were inversely associated with CVD outcomes after adjusting for classical risk factors. Addition of grip strength (change in C-index: ACC/AHA, +0.0017; SCORE, +0.0047), usual walking pace (ACC/AHA, +0.0031; SCORE, +0.0130), and both combined (ACC/AHA, +0.0041; SCORE, +0.0148) improved the C-index and also improved the net reclassification index (grip, +0.55%; walking pace, +0.53%; combined, 1.12%). CONCLUSION: The present study has found that the addition of grip strength or usual walking pace to existing risk scores results in improved CVD risk prediction, with an additive effect when both are added. As both these measures are cheap and easy to administer, these tools could provide an important addition to CVD risk screening, although further external validation is required.

Association of injury related hospital admissions with commuting by bicycle in the UK: prospective population based study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether bicycle commuting is associated with risk of injury. DESIGN: Prospective population based study. SETTING: UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS: 230 390 commuters (52.1% women; mean age 52.4 years) recruited from 22 sites across the UK compared by mode of transport used (walking, cycling, mixed mode versus non-active (car or public transport)) to commute to and from work on a typical day. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: First incident admission to hospital for injury. RESULTS: 5704 (2.5%) participants reported cycling as their main form of commuter transport. Median follow-up was 8.9 years (interquartile range 8.2-9.5 years), and overall 10 241 (4.4%) participants experienced an injury. Injuries occurred in 397 (7.0%) of the commuters who cycled and 7698 (4.3%) of the commuters who used a non-active mode of transport. After adjustment for major confounding sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle factors, cycling to work was associated with a higher risk of injury compared with commuting by a non-active mode (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 1.61). Similar trends were observed for commuters who used mixed mode cycling. Walking to work was not associated with a higher risk of injury. Longer cycling distances during commuting were associated with a higher risk of injury, but commute distance was not associated with injury in non-active commuters. Cycle commuting was also associated with a higher number of injuries when the external cause was a transport related incident (incident rate ratio 3.42, 95% confidence interval 3.00 to 3.90). Commuters who cycled to work had a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death than those who did not. If the associations are causal, an estimated 1000 participants changing their mode of commuting to include cycling for 10 years would result in 26 additional admissions to hospital for a first injury (of which three would require a hospital stay of a week or longer), 15 fewer first cancer diagnoses, four fewer cardiovascular disease events, and three fewer deaths. CONCLUSION: Compared with non-active commuting to work, commuting by cycling was associated with a higher risk of hospital admission for a first injury and higher risk of transport related incidents specifically. These risks should be viewed in context of the health benefits of active commuting and underscore the need for a safer infrastructure for cycling in the UK.

Glycated Hemoglobin, Prediabetes, and the Links to Cardiovascular Disease: Data From UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: HbA1c levels are increasingly measured in screening for diabetes; we investigated whether HbA1c may simultaneously improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, using QRISK3, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scoring systems. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: UK Biobank participants without baseline CVD or known diabetes (n = 357,833) were included. Associations of HbA1c with CVD was assessed using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors. Predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index (NRI). A separate analysis was conducted in 16,596 participants with known baseline diabetes. RESULTS: Incident fatal or nonfatal CVD, as defined in the QRISK3 prediction model, occurred in 12,877 participants over 8.9 years. Of participants, 3.3% (n = 11,665) had prediabetes (42.0-47.9 mmol/mol [6.0-6.4%]) and 0.7% (n = 2,573) had undiagnosed diabetes (≥48.0 mmol/mol [≥6.5%]). In unadjusted models, compared with the reference group (<42.0 mmol/mol [<6.0%]), those with prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes were at higher CVD risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.83 (95% CI 1.69-1.97) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.96-2.60), respectively. After adjustment for classical risk factors, these attenuated to HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.03-1.20) and 1.20 (1.04-1.38), respectively. Adding HbA1c to the QRISK3 CVD risk prediction model (C-index 0.7392) yielded a small improvement in discrimination (C-index increase of 0.0004 [95% CI 0.0001-0.0007]). The NRI showed no improvement. Results were similar for models based on the ACC/AHA and SCORE risk models. CONCLUSIONS: The near twofold higher unadjusted risk for CVD in people with prediabetes is driven mainly by abnormal levels of conventional CVD risk factors. While HbA1c adds minimally to cardiovascular risk prediction, those with prediabetes should have their conventional cardiovascular risk factors appropriately measured and managed.

A retrospective study of more than 400 feline nasal biopsy samples in the UK (2006-2013).

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to utilise a large database from a UK-based, commercial veterinary diagnostic laboratory to ascertain the prevalence of different forms of nasal disease within the feline population. Further objectives included using this database to detect any breed, sex or age predilections, or associations between the degree of brachycephalism, and the different conditions diagnosed. METHODS: Records from the laboratory were searched for feline submissions received between 31 May 2006 and 31 October 2013. For all samples taken from the nasal cavity, the diagnosis was recorded together with the breed, age, sex and neuter status of the cat, whether the clinical presentation was uni- or bilateral and whether a nasal discharge was present. Pedigree breeds were further subclassified according to skull conformation into brachycephalic, mesocephalic and dolichocephalic. Logistic regression models were constructed to assess the adjusted magnitude of association of significant risk factors with each disease, and each disease was also used as a potential independent risk factor for each other disease. RESULTS: The most prevalent nasal disease was rhinitis, followed by neoplasia and polyps. The most commonly diagnosed neoplasm was lymphoma, followed by adenocarcinoma and undifferentiated carcinoma, with benign tumours being very uncommon. No significant association was found between skull conformation and nasal diseases. The only statistically significant association was polyps being more likely to arise in younger male cats, with a mesocephalic skull conformation and no nasal discharge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: No significant association was found between skull conformation and nasal diseases, contrary to what might be expected. The only significant association found between any of the potential risk factors and various forms of nasal disease was polyps being more likely to arise in younger cats; other identified associations are only likely to be weak.

Glomerular filtration rate by differing measures, albuminuria and prediction of cardiovascular disease, mortality and end-stage kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease is common in the general population and associated with excess cardiovascular disease (CVD), but kidney function does not feature in current CVD risk-prediction models. We tested three formulae for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to determine which was the most clinically informative for predicting CVD and mortality. Using data from 440,526 participants from UK Biobank, eGFR was calculated using serum creatinine, cystatin C (eGFRcys) and creatinine-cystatin C. Associations of each eGFR with CVD outcome and mortality were compared using Cox models and adjusting for atherosclerotic risk factors (per relevant risk scores), and the predictive utility was determined by the C-statistic and categorical net reclassification index. We show that eGFRcys is most strongly associated with CVD and mortality, and, along with albuminuria, adds predictive discrimination to current CVD risk scores, whilst traditional creatinine-based measures are weakly associated with risk. Clinicians should consider measuring eGFRcys as part of cardiovascular risk assessment.