[Study on the ARIMA model application to predict echinococcosis cases in China].

OBJECTIVE: To predict the monthly reported echinococcosis cases in China with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of echinococcosis. METHODS: SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported echinococcosis cases of time series from 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2014, respectively, and the accuracies of the two ARIMA models were compared. RESULTS: The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2015 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12, the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was -13.97%, AR (1) = 0.367 (t = 3.816, P < 0.001), SAR (1) = -0.328 (t = -3.361, P = 0.001), and Ljung-Box Q = 14.119 (df = 16, P = 0.590) . The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2014 was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1)12, the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was 0.56%, AR (1) = 0.413 (t = 4.244, P < 0.001), SAR (1) = 0.809 (t = 9.584, P < 0.001), SMA (1) = 0.356 (t = 2.278, P = 0.025), and Ljung-Box Q = 18.924 (df = 15, P = 0.217). CONCLUSIONS: The different time series may have different ARIMA models as for the same infectious diseases. It is needed to be further verified that the more data are accumulated, the shorter time of predication is, and the smaller the average of the relative error is. The establishment and prediction of an ARIMA model is a dynamic process that needs to be adjusted and optimized continuously according to the accumulated data, meantime, we should give full consideration to the intensity of the work related to infectious diseases reported (such as disease census and special investigation).

Study on the ARIMA model application to predict echinococcosis cases in China / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To predict the monthly reported echinococcosis cases in China with the autoregressive integrated mov-ing average(ARIMA)model,so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of echinococcosis. Methods SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported echinococcosis cases of time series from 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2014,respectively,and the accuracies of the two ARIMA models were compared. Results The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2015 was ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1, 0)12,the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was-13.97%,AR(1)=0.367(t=3.816,P<0.001),SAR (1)=-0.328(t=-3.361,P=0.001),and Ljung-Box Q=14.119(df=16,P=0.590).The model based on the data of the monthly reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2007 to 2014 was ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,1)12,the relative error among reported cases and predicted cases was 0.56%,AR(1)=0.413(t=4.244,P<0.001),SAR(1)=0.809(t=9.584, P<0.001),SMA(1)=0.356(t=2.278,P=0.025),and Ljung-Box Q=18.924(df=15,P=0.217).Conclusions The different time series may have different ARIMA models as for the same infectious diseases.It is needed to be further verified that the more data are accumulated,the shorter time of predication is,and the smaller the average of the relative error is.The estab-lishment and prediction of an ARIMA model is a dynamic process that needs to be adjusted and optimized continuously accord-ing to the accumulated data,meantime,we should give full consideration to the intensity of the work related to infectious diseas-es reported(such as disease census and special investigation).

Effect of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography combined with laparoscopy and choledochoscopy on the treatment of Mirizzi syndrome / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Mirizzi syndrome is often difficult to diagnose before surgery, and is often accompanied by extensive adhesions in the cystohepatic (Calot's) triangle and the difficulty of separating tissue can lead to bile duct injury and other intraoperative and postoperative complications. The aim of this study is to investigate minimally invasive means of treating different types of Mirizzi syndrome.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Fifty-four patients diagnosed with Mirizzi syndrome were enrolled between July 2004 and May 2012. The diagnosis was further refined according to the Csendes classification. Twenty-seven patients were treated with a combination of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), laparoscopy, and choledochoscopy (tripartite approach group); type I in 16 cases, type II five cases, and type III in six cases. Twenty-seven patients were treated with laparotomy (routine approach group); type I in 19 cases, type II in six cases, and type III in two cases. The operation time, blood loss during operation, initiation of intake time of food, postoperative complications, and hospital stays were compared between two groups.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>All patients were successfully cured in surgical operation. The operation time was (49.7 ± 27.5) minutes, blood loss during operation was (21.1 ± 15.9) ml, initiation of intake time of food was (6.3 ± 2.7) hours, postoperative complications were with two cases (7%, 2/27), and hospital stay was (6.7 ± 1.8) days in the tripartite approach group. In the routine approach group, the operation time was (85.1 ± 20.3) minutes, blood loss during operation was (150.3 ± 20.5) ml, initiation of intake time of food was (36.6 ± 10.3) hours, postoperative complications were with three cases (11%, 3/27), and hospital stay was (10.9 ± 3.4) days. Except for postoperative complications, there were significant differences in the operation time, blood loss during operation, initiation of intake time of food, and hospital stays between two groups (P < 0.05).</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>ERCP combined with laparoscopy and choledochoscopy is a safe and effective means of treating Mirizzi syndrome. The approach is minimally invasive and patients recover quickly requiring only brief hospitalization.</p>

Study on the association of p53 codon 72 polymorphisms with risk of gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China.

To investigate the possible association of P53 codon 72 Arg/Pro polymorphisms with risk of gastric cancer in the high incidence Hexi area of Gansu province in China. Blood samples from 140 patients with gastric carcinoma and 125 healthy controls were collected in Hexi area of Gansu province. Polymorphism of P53Arg72Pro was genotyped by PCR-TaqMan. For detection Helicobacter pylori infection, Warhin-Starry staining was used. Three kinds of polymorphisms of P53Arg72Pro were Arg/Arg, Arg/Pro, Pro/Pro. The frequencies in gastric cancer group were 15.7, 60.0, 24.3%, and the frequencies in healthy controls were 25.6, 54.4, 20.0%, respectively. P53 codon 72 Pro carrier genotype (Arg/Pro+Pro/Pro) increased risk of gastric carcinoma with an odds ratio 1.840 (95% CI: 1.006-3.387). Helicobacter pylori infection rate was 68.6% in patients group and 50.4% in healthy controls. Helicobacter pylori infection rate in gastric cancer patients was remarkably higher than that in the controls (OR: 2.147, 95% CI: 1.302-3.541, P=0.003). Stratification analysis showed that P53 codon 72 Pro carrier genotype with Helicobacter pylori infection was significantly higher in cases than that in the controls (OR: 4.182, 95% CI: 1.850-9.454). P53Arg72Pro polymorphisms could be a risk factor for gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China. P53 codon 72 Pro carrier genotype and Helicobacter pylori positive infection may have a synergistic effect on gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China.

Study on the association of COX-2 genetic polymorphisms with risk of gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu province in China.

To investigate the possible association of polymorphisms, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) promoter region -899G>C, COX-2 codon 587G>A, with risk of gastric cancer in the high incidence Hexi area of Gansu province in China. Blood samples from 140 patients with gastric carcinoma and 125 normal persons were collected in Hexi area of Gansu province in China. Polymorphisms of COX-2 -899G>A and COX-2 587G>A were genotyped by PCR-TaqMan. For detection Helicobacter pylori infection, Warhin-Starry staining was used. Three kinds of polymorphisms of COX-2 -899G>C were GG, GC and CC. The frequencies in gastric cancer patients were 72.9, 21.4 and 5.7%, and the frequencies in controls were 84.0, 12.8 and 3.2%, respectively. COX-2 -899C carrier (GC + CC) increased risk of gastric carcinoma with an odds ratio 1.950 (95% CI: 1.067-3.586, P=0.029). The genotype of COX-2 587G>A polymorphism were GG, GA and AA. The frequencies in patients group were 86.4, 11.4 and 2.2%, and the frequencies in controls were 89.6, 9.6 and 0.8%, respectively. There was no significant difference between cases and controls in each genotype. Helicobacter pylori infection rate was 68.6% in patients group and 50.4% in healthy controls. Helicobacter pylori infection rate in gastric cancer patients was remarkably higher than that in normal people (OR: 2.147, 95% CI: 1.302-3.541, P=0.003). Stratification analysis was showed that COX-2 -899C carrier genotype with Helicobacter pylori infection was significantly higher in cases than that in healthy controls (OR: 4.000, 95% CI: 1.638-9.770). The polymorphism of COX-2 -899G>C could be a risk factor for gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China. COX-2 -899C carrier genotype and Helicobacter pylori positive infection may have a synergistic effect on gastric cancer in high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China. However, the polymorphisms of COX-2 587G>A is no association with gastric cancer in the high incidence Hexi area of Gansu Province in China.

Cyclooxygenase-2 promoter polymorphism -899G/C is associated with hepatitis B-related liver cancer in a Chinese population of Gansu province / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Hepatitis B virus infection is closely related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is overexpressed in HCC and considered to play a role in hepatic carcinogenesis. In this study, we analyzed the polymorphism of COX-2 promoter -899G/C in healthy controls, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, liver cirrhosis patients, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, to investigate the relationship between COX-2 -899G/C polymorphism and the risk for hepatitis B-related liver cancer in a Chinese population from Gansu province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Patients were divided into four groups: 300 patients with CHB, 300 patients with liver cirrhosis, 300 patients with HCC, and 300 healthy controls. The polymorphism of COX-2 -899G/C was detected by PCR-TaqMan probes. The results were analyzed by SPSS 17.0.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The COX-2 -899G/C genotypes were GG, GC, and CC. Frequencies in CHB were 87.00%, 12.67%, 0.33%; in liver cirrhosis were 85.33%, 14.00%, 0.67%; in HCC were 77.00%, 21.67%, 1.33%; and in healthy controls were 90.67%, 9.00%, 0.33%, respectively. COX-2 -899C carriers may have an increased risk for hepatitis B-related liver cancer. Compared with the frequency of GG genotype, there were significant differences in the frequency of GC genotype between HCC and healthy control groups (OR = 2.835, 95%CI: 1.751 - 4.589); HCC and CHB groups (OR = 1.933, 95%CI: 1.248 - 2.994); and HCC and liver cirrhosis groups (OR = 1.175, 95%CI: 1.119 - 2.628). Stratification analyses showed that COX-2 -899C allele carriers with a drinking history are more susceptible to develop HCC.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>COX-2 -899C genotype may increase the susceptibility of individuals to hepatitis B-related liver cancer in Gansu province, China.</p>

Therapeutic effects of endoscopic therapy combined with enteral nutrition on acute severe biliary pancreatitis / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Acute severe biliary pancreatitis (ASBP) is a severe and fatal disease, and the expenditure is huge and therapeutic effects are still not satisfactory. This study aimed to improve the therapeutic effects and reduce the expenditure of ASBP treatment.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>One hundred and five patients diagnosed with ASBP were referred to our department from January 2004 to July 2009. Diagnosis was based on the 2007 criteria of the Chinese Society of Surgery. Patients were divided into two groups; the E group: 50 patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde choledochopancreatography (ERCP) + endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) + endoscopic lithotripsy basket (ESR) + endoscopic retrograde biliary drainage (ERBD) and enteral nutrition (EN), and the R group: 55 patients who underwent traditional treatment without ERCP. Subsequently, subjective symptoms, signs, biochemical analysis, serum endotoxin, tumor necrosis factor a, grades by computed tomography (CT), cost of hospitalization and length of stay were compared between the two groups.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>All enrolled patients complied well with all therapeutic regimens. Endoscopic therapy that combined EN could significantly improve symptoms, clinical signs, laboratory values, tumor necrosis factor a and endotoxin while significantly reducing hospital expenditure and length of hospital stay. The experimental findings revealed that there were obvious advantages in the E group compared with the R group.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Endoscopic therapy combined with EN is an effective, safe and economic therapeutic regimen of ASBP.</p>