Predictors of mortality shortly after entering a long-term care facility.

OBJECTIVE: Moving into a long-term care facility (LTCF) requires substantial personal, societal and financial investment. Identifying those at high risk of short-term mortality after LTCF entry can help with care planning and risk factor management. This study aimed to: (i) examine individual-, facility-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related predictors for 90-day mortality at entry into an LTCF and (ii) create risk profiles for this outcome. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. SUBJECTS: Individuals aged ≥ 65 years old with first-time permanent entry into an LTCF in three Australian states between 01 January 2013 and 31 December 2016. METHODS: A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed using Cox regression with the purposeful variable selection approach. Individual-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related factors known at entry into an LTCF were examined as predictors. Harrell's C-index assessed the predictive ability of our risk models. RESULTS: 116,192 individuals who entered 1,967 facilities, of which 9.4% (N = 10,910) died within 90 days, were studied. We identified 51 predictors of mortality, five of which were effect modifiers. The strongest predictors included activities of daily living category (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.99-5.88 for high vs low), high level of complex health conditions (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.58-1.77 for high vs low), several medication classes and male sex (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.53-1.65). The model out-of-sample Harrell's C-index was 0.773. CONCLUSIONS: Our mortality prediction model, which includes several strongly associated factors, can moderately well identify individuals at high risk of mortality upon LTCF entry.

Primary, allied health, selected specialists, and mental health service utilisation by home care recipients in Australia before and after accessing the care, 2017-2019.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in primary, allied health, selected specialists, and mental health service utilisation by older people in the year before and after accessing home care package (HCP) services. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Registry of Senior Australians Historical National Cohort (≥ 65 years old), including individuals accessing HCP services between 2017 and 2019 (N = 109,558), was conducted. The utilisation of general practice (GP) attendances, health assessments, chronic disease management plans, allied health services, geriatric, pain, palliative, and mental health services, subsidised by the Australian Government Medicare Benefits Schedule, was assessed in the 12 months before and after HCP access, stratified by HCP level (1-2 vs. 3-4, i.e., lower vs. higher care needs). Relative changes in service utilisation 12 months before and after HCP access were estimated using adjusted risk ratios (aRR) from Generalised Estimating Equation Poisson models. RESULTS: Utilisation of health assessments (7-10.2%), chronic disease management plans (19.7-28.2%), and geriatric, pain, palliative, and mental health services (all ≤ 2.5%) remained low, before and after HCP access. Compared to 12 months prior to HCP access, 12 months after, GP after-hours attendances increased (HCP 1-2 from 6.95 to 7.5%, aRR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11; HCP 3-4 from 7.76 to 9.32%, aRR = 1.20, 95%CI 1.13-1.28) and allied health services decreased (HCP 1-2 from 34.8 to 30.7%, aRR = 0.88, 95%CI 0.87-0.90; HCP levels 3-4 from 30.5 to 24.3%, aRR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.77-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Most MBS subsidised preventive, management and specialist services are underutilised by older people, both before and after HCP access and small changes are observed after they access HCP.

Cohort profile: GRACE - a residential aged care cohort examining factors influencing antimicrobial resistance carriage.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria represents a considerable threat to human health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as those living in residential aged care. However, antimicrobial resistance carriage and modes of transmission remain incompletely understood. The Generating evidence on antimicrobial Resistance in the Aged Care Environment (GRACE) study was established to determine principal risk factors of antimicrobial resistance carriage and transmission in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This article describes the cohort characteristics, national representation, and planned analyses for this study. METHODS: Between March 2019 and March 2020, 279 participants were recruited from five South Australian RACFs. The median age was 88.6 years, the median period in residence was 681 days, and 71.7% were female. A dementia diagnosis was recorded in 54.5% and more than two thirds had moderate to severe cognitive impairment (68.8%). 61% had received at least one course of antibiotics in the 12 months prior to enrolment. RESULTS: To investigate the representation of the GRACE cohort to Australians in residential aged care, its characteristics were compared to a subset of the historical cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA). This included 142,923 individuals who were permanent residents of RACFs on June 30th, 2017. GRACE and ROSA cohorts were similar in age, sex, and duration of residential care, prevalence of health conditions, and recorded dementia diagnoses. Differences were observed in care requirements and antibiotic exposure (both higher for GRACE participants). GRACE participants had fewer hospital visits compared to the ROSA cohort, and a smaller proportion were prescribed psycholeptic medications. CONCLUSIONS: We have assembled a cohort of aged care residents that is representative of the Australian aged care population, and which provides a basis for future analyses. Metagenomic data isolated from participants and built environments will be used to determine microbiome and resistome characteristics of an individual and the facility. Individual and facility risk exposures will be aligned with metagenomic data to identify principal determinants for antimicrobial resistance carriage. Ultimately, this analysis will inform measures aimed at reducing the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistant pathogens in this high-risk population.

Preventing empirical antibiotic treatment failure in migrant populations: screening by infection risk, not ethnic background.

Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) are a major international health threat. In many low and middle-income countries poorly regulated antibiotic use, limited surveillance, and inadequate sanitation give rise to high rates of antibiotic resistance. A resulting reliance on last-line antibiotic options further contributes to the emergence of MDROs. The potential for these pathogens to spread across international borders is a matter of considerable concern. However, this problem is commonly framed as primarily a threat to the health security of countries where resistance is not yet endemic. In fact, it is little acknowledged that those at greatest risk from antibiotic treatment failure are individuals who move from regions of high MDRO prevalence to settings where standard empirical treatment options remain largely effective. In this perspective, we highlight the poor treatment outcomes for disseminated bacterial infections in individuals who have moved from settings in which MDROs are common to those where MDROs are currently less common. We discuss MDRO screening strategies that could avoid stigmatizing vulnerable populations by focusing on future risk of disseminated infection, rather than past risk of acquisition. In practical terms, this means screening individuals before childbirth, immunosuppressive treatments, major surgery, or other events associated with disseminated infection risk, rather than prioritizing screening for individuals from regions with high carriage rates. We argue that such measures would reduce antibiotic treatment failure and improve outcomes while protecting migrant populations from the divisive consequences of targeted screening programs.

Primary, allied health, geriatric, pain and palliative healthcare service utilisation by aged care residents, 2012-2017.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the incidence and trends in primary care, allied health, geriatric, pain and palliative care service use by permanent residential aged care (PRAC) residents and the older Australian population. METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional analyses on PRAC residents (N = 318,484) and the older (≥65 years) Australian population (N ~ 3.5 million). Outcomes were Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) subsidised primary care, allied health, geriatric, pain and palliative services between 2012-13 and 2016-17. GEE Poisson models estimated incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS: In 2016-17, PRAC residents had a median of 13 (interquartile range [IQR] 5-19) regular general medical practitioner (GP) attendances, 3 (IQR 1-6) after-hours attendances and 5% saw a geriatrician. Highlights of utilisation changes from 2012-13 to 2016-17 include the following: GP attendances increased by 5%/year (IRR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.05) for residents compared to 1%/year (IRR = 1.01, 95%CI 1.01-1.01) for the general population. GP after-hours attendances increased by 15%/year (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.14-1.15) for residents and 9%/year (IRR = 1.08, 95%CI 1.07-1.20) for the general population. GP management plans increased by 12%/year (IRR = 1.12, 95%CI 1.11-1.12) for residents and 10%/year (IRR = 1.10, 95%CI 1.09-1.11) for the general population. Geriatrician consultations increased by 28%/year (IRR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.27-1.29) for residents compared to 14%/year (IRR = 1.14, 95%CI 1.14-1.15) in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: The utilisation of most examined services increased in both cohorts over time. Preventive and management care, by primary care and allied health care providers, was low and likely influences the utilisation of other attendances. PRAC residents' access to pain, palliative and geriatric medicine services is low and may not address the residents' needs.

An eye to the future: Acute and long-term neuro-ophthalmological and neurological complications of COVID-19.

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the global population and has produced compelling evidence of non-pulmonary organ dysfunction, including the nervous system. It is vital that specialists in ophthalmology and neurology are informed of the potential complications of COVID-19 and gain a deeper understanding of how COVID-19 can cause diseases of the nervous system. In this review we detail four possible mechanisms by which COVID-19 infection may result in neurological or neuro-ophthalmological complications: (1) Toxic and metabolic effects of severe pulmonary COVID-19 disease on the neural axis including hypoxia and the systemic hyper-inflammatory state, (2) endothelial dysfunction, (3) dysimmune responses directed again the neuroaxis, and (4) direct neuro-invasion and injury by the virus itself. We explore the pathological evidence for each of these and how they may link to neuro-ophthalmological disorders. Finally, we explore the evidence for long-term neurological and neuro-ophthalmological complications of COVID-19, with a focus on neurodegeneration.

Aged and Health Care Service Utilization by Older Australians Receiving Home Care Packages.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the (1) cohort of individuals living at home with Home Care Packages (HCPs) in 2016, (2) their access to other aged care services after HCP commencement, and (3) their hospital and ambulance service utilization. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted using integrated aged care and health care data contained within the National Historical Cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This study included people who accessed HCP between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2016. METHODS: The access to permanent residential aged care, transition care, respite care, hospital and ambulance services among Australian HCP recipients ≥65 years old in 2016 was evaluated. Descriptive statistics were employed. RESULTS: In 2016, 84,681 individuals received HCPs, of which 68.4% (n = 57,942) accessed HCP levels 1‒2, 26.0% (n = 22,057) accessed HCP levels 3‒4, and 5.5% (n = 4682) accessed both care levels within the year. Of the individuals receiving HCP, 34.0% (n = 27,787) started services that year and 16.7% (n = 14,117) moved to permanent residential aged care, 18.4% (n = 15,592) used respite care and 5.8% (n = 4937) used transition care that year. Emergency department (ED) presentations [43.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 43.3‒44.0] were the most common hospital encounters, followed by inpatient hospitalizations for any reason (43.3%, 95% CI 42.9‒43.7), and unplanned hospitalizations (38%, 95% CI 37.6‒38.3). Forty-four percent (44.5%, 95% CI 43.9‒45.0) of individuals utilized ambulance services. ED presentations, hospitalization for any reason, and unplanned hospitalizations were more common in individuals receiving HCP levels 3‒4 compared with those accessing HCP levels 1‒2. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: HCP recipients in Australia have frequent hospitalizations, including ED presentations. In addition, almost 1 in 5 access respite care and 16.7% transition to permanent residential care each year. As the population accessing HCP is increasing, adequate support for these individuals to live well at home and avoid health events that lead to hospitalizations are necessary.

Targeted reduction of airborne viral transmission risk in long-term residential aged care.

COVID-19 has demonstrated the devastating consequences of the rapid spread of an airborne virus in residential aged care. We report the use of CO2-based ventilation assessment to empirically identify potential 'super-spreader' zones within an aged care facility, and determine the efficacy of rapidly implemented, inexpensive, risk reduction measures.

Provision of a comprehensive medicines review is associated with lower mortality risk for residents of aged care facilities: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: no studies have examined the impact of residential medication management review (RMMR, a 24-year government subsidised comprehensive medicines review program) in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on hospitalisation or mortality. OBJECTIVE: to examine associations between RMMR provision in the 6-12 months after RACF entry and the 12-month risk of hospitalisation and mortality among older Australians in RACFs. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: individuals aged 65-105 years taking at least one medicine, who entered an RACF in three Australian states between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2015 and spent at least 6 months in the RACF (n = 57,719). METHODS: Cox regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between RMMR provision and mortality. Adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios were estimated for associations between RMMR provision and next (i) emergency department (ED) presentation or unplanned hospitalisation or (ii) fall-related ED presentation or hospitalisation. RESULTS: there were 12,603 (21.8%) individuals who received an RMMR within 6-12 months of RACF entry, of whom 22.2% (95%CI 21.4-22.9) died during follow-up, compared with 23.3% (95%CI 22.9-23.7) of unexposed individuals. RMMR provision was associated with a lower risk of death due to any cause over 12-months (aHR 0.96, 95%CI 0.91-0.99), but was not associated with ED presentations or hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls. CONCLUSIONS: provision of an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry is associated with a 4.4% lower mortality risk over 12-months but was not associated with changes in hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls.

Medicines use before and after comprehensive medicines review among residents of long-term care facilities: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Residential Medication Management Review (RMMR) is a subsidized comprehensive medicines review program for individuals in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This study examined weekly trends in medicines use in the four months before and after an RMMR and among a comparison group of residents who did not receive an RMMR. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included individuals aged 65 to 105 years who first entered permanent care between 1/1/2012 and 31/12/2016 in South Australia, Victoria, or New South Wales, and were taking at least one medicine. Individuals with an RMMR within 12 months of RACF entry were classified into one of three groups: (i) RMMR within 0 to 3 months, (ii) 3 to 6 months, or (iii) within 6 to 12 months of RACF entry. Individuals without RMMRs were included in the comparison group. Weekly trends in the number of defined daily doses per 1000 days were determined in the four months before and after the RMMR (or assigned index date in the comparison group) for 14 medicine classes. RESULTS: 113909 individuals from 1979 RACFs were included, of whom 55021 received an RMMR. Across all three periods examined, decreased use of statins and proton pump inhibitors was observed post-RMMR in comparison to those without RMMRs. Decreases in calcium channel blockers, benzodiazepines/zopiclone, and antidepressants were observed following RMMR provision in the 3-6 and 6-12 months after RACF entry. Negligible changes in antipsychotic use were also observed following an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry by comparison to those without RMMRs. No changes in use of opioids, ACE inhibitors/sartans, beta blockers, loop diuretics, oral anticoagulants, or medicines for osteoporosis, diabetes or the cognitive symptoms of dementia were observed post-RMMR. CONCLUSIONS: For six of the 14 medicine classes investigated, modest changes in weekly trends in use were observed after the provision of an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry compared to those without RMMRs. Findings suggest that activities such as medicines reconciliation may be prioritized when an RMMR is provided on RACF entry, with deprescribing more likely after an RMMR the longer a resident has been in the RACF.

Ear microbiota and middle ear disease: a longitudinal pilot study of Aboriginal children in a remote south Australian setting.

BACKGROUND: Otitis media (OM) is a major disease burden in Australian Aboriginal children, contributing to serious long-term health outcomes. We report a pilot analysis of OM in children attending an outreach ear and hearing clinic in a remote south Australian community over a two-year period. Our study focuses on longitudinal relationships between ear canal microbiota characteristics with nasopharyngeal microbiota, and clinical and treatment variables. RESULTS: Middle ear health status were assessed in 19 children (aged 3 months to 8 years) presenting in remote western South Australia and medical interventions were recorded. Over the two-year study period, chronic suppurative OM was diagnosed at least once in 7 children (37%), acute OM with perforation in 4 children (21%), OM with effusion in 11 children (58%), while only 1 child had no ear disease. Microbiota analysis of 19 children (51 sets of left and right ear canal swabs and nasopharyngeal swabs) revealed a core group of bacterial taxa that included Corynebacterium, Alloiococcus, Staphylococcus, Haemophilus, Turicella, Streptococcus, and Pseudomonas. Within-subject microbiota similarity (between ears) was significantly greater than inter-subject similarity, regardless of differences in ear disease (p = 0.0006). Longitudinal analysis revealed changes in diagnosis to be associated with more pronounced changes in microbiota characteristics, irrespective of time interval. Ear microbiota characteristics differed significantly according to diagnosis (P (perm) = 0.0001). Diagnoses featuring inflammation with tympanic membrane perforation clustering separately to those in which the tympanic membrane was intact, and characterised by increased Proteobacteria, particularly Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and Oligella. While nasopharyngeal microbiota differed significantly in composition to ear microbiota (P (perm) = 0.0001), inter-site similarity was significantly greater in subjects with perforated tympanic membranes, a relationship that was associated with the relative abundance of H. influenzae in ear samples (rs = - 0.71, p = 0.0003). Longitudinal changes in ear microbiology reflected changes in clinical signs and treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Children attending the ear and hearing clinic in a remote Aboriginal community present with a broad spectrum of OM conditions and severities, consistent with other remote Aboriginal communities. Ear microbiota characteristics align with OM diagnosis and change with disease course. Nasopharyngeal microbiota characteristics are consistent with the contribution of acute upper respiratory infection to OM aetiology.

Hospitalisation for lower respiratory viral infections in older people in residential aged care facilities.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify incidence, trends and outcomes associated with lower respiratory viral infection (LRVI) hospitalisations in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs). METHODS: A population-based cohort study of residents in RACFs aged ≥65 years from New South Wales (NSW), South Australia (SA) and Victoria (VIC) using data from the Registry of Senior Australians (2013-2016) was conducted. Age- and sex-standardised monthly and yearly LRVI hospitalisation incidences were calculated, and time trends and risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Of 268 657 residents included over the study period, 12% had ≥1 LRVI hospitalisation. Average annual incidence/1000 residents was 7.1 [6.9-7.2] in 2013, increasing to 7.8 [7.7-8.1] in 2016. Males, increasing co-morbidity, presence of CHF, respiratory disease and hypertension had a higher incidence of LRVI hospitalisation. In-hospital mortality was 14%. Within 30 days following discharge, 15% died and 8% were readmitted. CONCLUSIONS: Prior to COVID-19, incidence of hospitalisation for LRVI in Australia's residential aged care population was increasing and was associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Prevalence of Eye Conditions, Utilization of Eye Health Care Services, and Ophthalmic Medications After Entering Residential Aged Care in Australia.

Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the burden and trends of eye diseases, utilisation of eye health care services, and ophthalmic medications among older people living in residential aged care facilities in Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. Individuals aged ≥65 years who entered permanent residential aged care facilities between 2008 and 2015 were included. The prevalence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of eye diseases by year, eye health care services, and ophthalmic medication use within a year of entry into the service were evaluated. Poisson regression models estimated adjusted rate of change using prevalence ratio (PR) by age, sex, state, and frailty scores. Results: Of the 409,186 people studied, 43.6% (N = 178,367) had an eye condition. Of the total cohort, 32.9% (N = 134,566) had chronic eye conditions and 19.7% (N = 80,661) had an acute eye condition. Common chronic eye conditions were glaucoma (13.6%, N = 55,830), cataract (8%, (N = 32,779), blindness (4.5%, N = 18,856), and poor vision (10.3%, N = 42,245). Prevalence of any eye condition (2008: 42.7%, 95% CI = 42.2%-43.2% and 2015: 41.2%, 95% CI = 40.8-41.6%, PR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.99-0.99, P < 0.001), acute eye conditions (2008: 19.8%, 95% CI = 19.4%-20.2% and 2015: 17.4%, 95% CI = 17.1%-17.6%, PR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.97-0.98, P < 0.001), and blindness (2008: 5.2%, 95% CI = 5.0%-5.4% and 2015: 3.7%, 95% CI = 3.5%-3.9%, PR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.93-0.94, p < 0.001). decreased over the study period. The prevalence of glaucoma (2008: 13.5%, 95% CI = 13.2%-13.8% and 2015: 13.8%, 95% CI = 13.5%-13.7%; PR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.99-1.10, P < 0.001) and cataract (2008: 7.4%, 95% CI = 7.2%-7.7% and 2015: 8.5%, 95% CI = 8.3%-8.7%, PR = 1.00, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01, P < 0.001) remained stable or slightly increased. Overall, 46.4% (N = 82,769) of individuals with eye conditions, accessed at least one eye health service within the first year of entering residential care and 70.5% (N = 125,673) used at least one ophthalmic medication. Optometric services (41.7%, N = 74,358) were the most used eye health care services and anti-infective eye drops (37.2%, N = 66,331) were the most commonly dispensed medications. Conclusions: The prevalence of blindness among older Australian using residential aged care services decreased over the study period. However, the burden of eye diseases remained high between 2008 and 2015, whereas the use of eye health care services was disproportionately low. This study provides evidence of a significant need for eye health care services for older people with an eye disease in residential aged care facilities. Translational Relevance: Four in ten long term aged care residents in Australia had at least one eye condition over the study period, indicating potential for a high eye health care needs in aged care settings.

Environmental dynamics of hospital microbiome upon transfer from a major hospital to a new facility.

BACKGROUND: Infection control is critical to safe hospital care. However, how bacteria within nosocomial environments relate to space utilisation and occupancy remains poorly understood. Our aim was to characterise the hospital microbiome in the context of the closure of a tertiary hospital and the opening of a new facility. METHODS: Environmental swabs were collected from common and inpatient areas in the old and new hospitals during a 12-month transition period. Microbiota characteristics were determined by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and quantitative (q)PCR. Targeted assays were used to detect Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vanB-positive Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci (VRE). RESULTS: The transition to full occupancy in the new facility was associated with an increase in bacterial load (inpatient areas, 3 months p = 0.001; common areas, 6 months p = 0.039) and a change in microbiota composition (baseline-12 months, PERMANOVA p = 0.002). These changes were characterised by an increase in human microbiota-associated taxa, including Acinetobacter and Veillonella. Closure of the existing facility was associated with a decrease in bacterial load (p = 0.040). Detection of MRSA did not differ significantly between sites. CONCLUSIONS: Occupancy is a major determinant of bacterial dispersion within hospital environments. Steady-state bacterial levels and microbiota composition provide a basis for assessment of infection control measures.

National Trends and Policy Impacts on Provision of Home Medicines Reviews and Residential Medication Management Reviews in Older Australians, 2009-2019.

Comprehensive medicines reviews such as Home Medicines Review (HMR) and Residential Medication Management Review (RMMR) can resolve medicines-related problems. Changes to Australia's longstanding HMR and RMMR programs were implemented between 2011 and 2014. This study examined trends in HMR and RMMR provision among older Australians during 2009-2019 and determined the impact of program changes on service provision. Monthly rates of general medical practitioner (GP) HMR claims per 1000 people aged ≥65 years and RMMR claims per 1000 older residents of aged care facilities were determined using publicly available data. Interrupted time series analysis was conducted to examine changes coinciding with dates of program changes. In January 2009, monthly HMR and RMMR rates were 0.80/1000 older people and 20.17/1000 older residents, respectively. Small monthly increases occurred thereafter, with 1.89 HMRs/1000 and 34.73 RMMRs/1000 provided in February 2014. In March 2014, immediate decreases of -0.32 (95%CI -0.52 to -0.11) HMRs/1000 and -12.80 (95%CI -15.22 to -10.37) RMMRs/1000 were observed. There were 1.07 HMRs/1000 and 35.36 RMMRs/1000 provided in December 2019. In conclusion, HMR and RMMR program changes in March 2014 restricted access to subsidized medicines reviews and were associated with marked decreases in service provision. The low levels of HMR and RMMR provision observed do not represent a proactive approach to medicines safety and effectiveness among older Australians.

The composition of the gut microbiota following early-life antibiotic exposure affects host health and longevity in later life.

Studies investigating whether there is a causative link between the gut microbiota and lifespan have largely been restricted to invertebrates or to mice with a reduced lifespan because of a genetic deficiency. We investigate the effect of early-life antibiotic exposure on otherwise healthy, normal chow-fed, wild-type mice, monitoring these mice for more than 700 days in comparison with untreated control mice. We demonstrate the emergence of two different low-diversity community types, post-antibiotic microbiota (PAM) I and PAM II, following antibiotic exposure. PAM II but not PAM I mice have impaired immunity, increased insulin resistance, and evidence of increased inflammaging in later life as well as a reduced lifespan. Our data suggest that differences in the composition of the gut microbiota following antibiotic exposure differentially affect host health and longevity in later life.

Predictors of short-term hospitalization and emergency department presentations in aged care.

OBJECTIVES: To examine individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of hospitalization and emergency department (ED) presentation within 90 days of entering the aged care sector, and to create risk-profiles associated with these outcomes. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. PARTICIPANTS: Older people (aged 65 and older) with an aged care eligibility assessment in South Australia between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2016 (N = 22,130). MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes were unplanned hospitalization and ED presentation within 90 days of assessment. Individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of the outcomes at the time of assessment, within 90 days or 1-year prior. Fine-Gray models were used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Harrell's C-index assessed predictive ability. RESULTS: Four thousand nine-hundred and six (22.2%) individuals were hospitalized and 5028 (22.7%) had an ED presentation within 90 days. Predictors of hospitalization included: being a man (hospitalization sHR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.42), ≥3 urgent after-hours attendances (hospitalization sHR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06-1.39), increasing frailty index score (hospitalization sHR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.28), individuals using glucocorticoids (hospitalization sHR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20), sulfonamides (hospitalization sHR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.10-1.27), trimethoprim antibiotics (hospitalization sHR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.29), unplanned hospitalizations 30 days prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23), and ED presentations 1 year prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10). Similar predictors and hazard estimates were also observed for ED presentations. The hospitalization models out-of-sample predictive ability (C-index = 0.653, 95% CI 0.635-0.670) and ED presentations (C-index = 0.647, 95% CI 0.630-0.663) were moderate. CONCLUSIONS: One in five individuals with aged care eligibility assessments had unplanned hospitalizations and/or ED presentation within 90 days with several predictors identified at the time of aged care eligibility assessment. This is an actionable period for targeting at-risk individuals to reduce hospitalizations.

Conventional myelosuppressive chemotherapy for non-haematological malignancy disrupts the intestinal microbiome.

BACKGROUND: The gut microbiota influences many aspects of host physiology, including immune regulation, and is predictive of outcomes in cancer patients. However, whether conventional myelosuppressive chemotherapy affects the gut microbiota in humans with non-haematological malignancy, independent of antibiotic exposure, is unknown. METHODS: Faecal samples from 19 participants with non-haematological malignancy, who were receiving conventional chemotherapy regimens but not antibiotics, were examined prior to chemotherapy, 7-12 days after chemotherapy, and at the end of the first cycle of treatment. Gut microbiota diversity and composition was determined by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. RESULTS: Compared to pre-chemotherapy samples, samples collected 7-12 days following chemotherapy exhibited increased richness (mean 120 observed species ± SD 38 vs 134 ± 40; p = 0.007) and diversity (Shannon diversity: mean 6.4 ± 0.43 vs 6.6 ± 0.41; p = 0.02). Composition was significantly altered, with a significant decrease in the relative abundance of gram-positive bacteria in the phylum Firmicutes (pre-chemotherapy median relative abundance [IQR] 0.78 [0.11] vs 0.75 [0.11]; p = 0.003), and an increase in the relative abundance of gram-negative bacteria (Bacteroidetes: median [IQR] 0.16 [0.13] vs 0.21 [0.13]; p = 0.01 and Proteobacteria: 0.015 [0.018] vs 0.03 [0.03]; p = 0.02). Differences in microbiota characteristics from baseline were no longer significant at the end of the chemotherapy cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional chemotherapy results in significant changes in gut microbiota characteristics during the period of predicted myelosuppression post-chemotherapy. Further study is indicated to link microbiome changes during chemotherapy to clinical outcomes.